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NUGT

DUSTWhose buying NUGT? I think that gold and miners are very over extended would you buy NUGT now? It could make you the guy holding the bag when it opens 20% down. Its just too late in the cycle to buy NUGT here. I'll wait for a pullback to get in. Buy DUST? Not sure I would do that any time soon. Too hard to tell. If you listen to others shorting a baby bull is a big mistake. Just looking at the chart of DUST. Look at the oversold condition, look at the volume increase. Big buying volume Today. Look at the bounces when %R gets way oversold (blue boxes). Strictly from the chart I would say its getting time to buy. I just won't
AMEX:DUST
by bhowe
Unapologetically BearishA series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low probability of happening. Needless to say, critics (unfortunately those that “manage” money) have come out to chastise the recession call, which is not backed up hard data but backed subjectively by a rally in equity prices. They repeat the mantra “don't fight the Fed.” Unfortunately, we've already witnessed the carnage bred from the same ignorant complacency as equity markets halve themselves twice in less than 15 years. Secondarily, last Friday, I watched Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, in conjunction with CNBC reporter Steve Liesman, say that the data depicting the sad state of economic affairs was wrong and that we should simply follow the non-farm payroll numbers. Whoa! This is a classic case of narrative over fact. But, lets look at key economic data points that have already hit cycle highs and rolled over: Key Data Point Post-Great Recession Peak, YoY % Non-Farm Payrolls First Quarter, 2015 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Third Quarter, 2015 Real Consumption First Quarter, 2015 Agg. Private Sector Wages & Income Fourth Quarter, 2014 Retail Sales and Food Servicess Third Quarter, 2011 Business Sales Second Quarter, 2010 Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio First Quarter, 2016 (Cycle High) ISM Manufacturing PMI Fourth Quarter, 2009 Additionally, all is not well in the corporate sector. Last month, market participants saw corporate profits drop 8.4%, nearly 3x more than expected and the third quarter in a row. Furthermore, profits for all of 2015 fell 5.1 percent - the largest drop since 2008. This is much higher then the .6 percent decline the year before. Mainstream economists don't forecast a looming recession, but when have they ever? Every recession since the early 1980's began with growth above one percent. In 2007, growth expansion was at 1.87 percent, only .13 percent lower than it was in 2015. When one steps back from market nuances and models for potential of all risks, not only does the picture become more clearer but the ability to adjust when needed becomes more simpler. In " SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the Course ," I pointed out the lackluster conviction of the equity rally. This still remains the case. Those that "don't fight the Fed" will be sorely disappointed when the only volume swarms in on the elevator drop. Notice that price action and accumulation on SPY hit a wall and appears to be pealing back: In April 2015, I issued a 2016 recession call between Q2-Q3 for the U.S. (following my January call for 1,810 on the SPX). After being laughed at, I wonder who will have the last laugh as Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is modeling a mere .4% (with a potential to go negative) for Q1. At 22.87x trailing 12-months earnings, equities remains extremely expensive and only have been at these levels prior to market crashes, including the market panic of 1893/96, flash crash of 1962, early 1990's recession, the Dot Com bubble and the Great Recession. Do you feel lucky? .... I remain unapologetically bearish. Reiterating my 1,546 SPX target for 2017. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytr
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
8
Gold outlook or coming weekFX_IDC:XAUUSD AMEX:DUST AMEX:NUGT AMEX:GDX Fundementals: The most fundamental driver of gold is interest rates, more specifically our treasury spread. In our recent years we have seen our yield curve flatten. Before we can fully understand what this means, we must see that there are two forces that are at work. The first we need to understand is that a steeper spread is a positive signal for economic conditions, associated with market booms and outflow capital from gold into equities. Now the inverse has happened, especially since the fed did not decide to raise interest rates again (would further flatten the yield curve if they did), this is a long term bullish signal for gold, however following the last week this gain was accompanied by a quick gap down into the 1215 range. Treasury Yield Comparison from 1 Year Ago Treasury Yield Comparison from 2 Years Ago The second force at work we need to understand is that lower interest rates should make gold more attractive compared to T-bills, and higher long term interest rates associated with higher inflation expectations should make gold attractive. Thus the opposite effect also occurs, making gold less attractive in times where the yield curve is flatter. 10 - 2 Year Historical Spread Technicals: Looking at the March 15th low, in gold that is our resistance at the top for gold at the moment, gold needs to make gains past 1225 in Monday trading before we can see 1240s. 1200s or lower is likely to occur in the next trading week. I base this decision on there being more supports broken in the last week than before, with quick bearish gaps down through many supports. Gold will likely be trading around 1190-1200 range by the end of next week, this would put us at our high during mid October. Given how gold had not been able to support it’s jump when the fed made their decision makes me think there are big parties selling gold on the market at prices around 1240-1250. Indecision strikes in at our low point at the end of this week around the 1215s region, and those parties willing to sell at 1240-1250 have backed out. The lack of buyers past the 1225 give me the impression that gold has become bear since its 1270 high. Fundementals indicate that the flatter yield curve, along with the economic recovery since January lows, will pull gold back to even lower levels over the following month. I am personally in OMX:DUST @ 3.3, and still holding. Looking to sell sometime in the coming week. Before entering at a low point again. Plan to average out position if Monday trades lower below 3.3. ---- Also how the heck do I add images to links that are not tradingview onto here..? Anyone know? I hate having to hyperlink charts like this. ZZzzZz....
FX:XAUUSDShort
by MixedStrategy
Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash? According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as market participants choose to overlook the weakening global economy and its implications. Nevertheless, with inflows into risk ETFs like SPY and HYG, gold miners could see their shares pull back from this historic gold run. Technically, after GDX broke out of a longer-term downtrend, price action began to oscillate within a narrow ascending channel. Prices are likely to pullback to channel and price action support of $19.80, while a confirmed break (or daily close below support), miners could fall to $18.85 and, potentially, $17.85 - also nearing the 50-day EMA. However, if the popular mining ETFs can remain above support, price action could challenge $21.88 and $23.03. Overall price action and trend momentum still remain rather supportive to the upside. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
AMEX:GDX
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold showing signs of DISTRIBUTIONGreat increase of upward movement today on greater than average volume. Prices closed very near the high of the day; however, even with the extra volume prices could not break resistance (C). The next few trading days will be very important. If the rally falls and this creates another lower high below resistance (D) then I believe we are seeing larger scale distribution that started on 11 Feb into the "buying climax" (BCLX). A failed "rally" would likely have to test support (A). My bias is bullish GOLD despite my present thesis that it is undergoing some distributive pressure. So I speculate that we would begin to see some "reaccumulation" around $112. Good Luck!
AMEX:GLD
by jamison.gaddy
Gold to $8,000?Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned economies. Recently, Pierre Lassonde said that gold could have the potential to reach $8,000 per ounce when looking at the gold-to-Dow ratio. He mentions how tangible assets tend to regain parity after previous bull-markets, and the potential for his forecast is supported if the gold-to-Dow ratio his .5 while expressing that the quick and expansive adaptation of NIRP will fuel the fire. As central banks continue to ease ($12.3 trillion in quantitative easing and 650 rate cuts since the financial crisis), there is a potential for a prolonged bull market in gold. As I noted in "Demand for Gold Rockets Higher ," if the renewed momentum were to match nominal gains investors seen between 2009-2011, spot prices would near $2,230 - which is not $8,000 but very respectable. The 1.61 Fib. extension from the current multi-year low and the 2011 high is $2,460. In " Gold Looks Promising Long Term ," I posted last February that the longer-term outlook for the yellow metal remains in tact. Price action continued to trend in the descending channel until it bottomed in December. What strengthens the cased for renewed optimism is that price action convincingly broke out of the descending channel and back above the 2003 trend line. In " Gold to Retest $1,130 as Dollar Strengthens ," I pointed out last March that the dollar strengthening is trouble and the velocity of such would be meaningful. As we've seen throughout last year, U.S. multinationals have been crushed due to the strength in the DXY, I also pointed out the descending wedge on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern. After finding support where I thought the last line of defense was before $1,000 oz., gold rallied hard and broke out. However, even through wedges are strong indicators of price reversals, the real test is that price tends to quickly retest the broken resistance. If that hold, it could be off to the races. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader