GOLDXAUUSD or Gold has reached an overbought position. Similar to previous time, as noted by the red circles you can expect a pullback to consolidate. I do expect the uptrend to continue this may be a buying opportunity.
NUGT
BTGBTG Gold Corp may be the leader out of the bottom for Gold Miners. With the RSI approaching overbought we can expect a nice pop to the upside. Wait for the tag of the trend line then go long.
NUGTGo long? If you believe history repeats itself. Notice the overlaid gold candles, they represent the last smack down we had a few moths ago. They fit pretty well as to what has already happened. If true to the course, we should move into a nice rally soon.
Gold Miners Run Up to Key ResistanceGold mining stocks have been trending higher, along with the overall U.S. equity market, of late. The recent support in gold prices allowed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) a strong close last week, pushing 15 percent off the November 18 low.
Gold mining stocks really get a pass from traders, and it is still early to determine whether the move will last or not. And, this could depend largely on whether or not the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy for the first time since 2006. If the Fed does hike rates, gold prices could suffer.
Currently, GDX has been able to close around the 50 percent Fib. retracement on the October 15 high. The daily candle closed near the top of its range on strong volume. The ADX is ticking upwards with a concurrent upward movement in + DMI, and this can garner stronger upside potential.
Conversely, the GDX could see resistance at the 50 percent Fib. level, which also coincides with trend resistance (broken support). A reversal at current levels could send the mining ETF $14.20/00, while deeper price support lies at $13.38.
Further upside momentum would cause the GDX to test the larger, downside trend line between $15.50 and $15.75. If the Fed fails to hike rates in a mere week, the GDX will retest the 200-daily EMA.
Stock pickers could find undervalued gems in the mining space. Meera Shawn, Market Realist, points out that some miners have down quite well this year: Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), up 11.2 percent; Centerra Gold (CG), up 31.2 percent and Alacer Gold (ASR), up 8.4 percent versus a 23 percent decline in GDX as a whole. It is important when choosing commodity producers to look for strong balance sheets and low operation costs. This helps producers whether pricing declines
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PAAS going bullish with GLD, AUY, NUGT...GLD looks like it has room to run so a breakout of this area is good odds and a potential long buy for PAAS, AUY, NUGT...
Model Sees 86.37 | #gold $XAU $NUGT $JNUG $AUD $CHF #elliottwaveFriends,
With recent news of $GLD from Stan Druckenmiller positioning, I decided to pass the ETF through the Predictive/Forecasting Model and other technical screening combs:
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The "Model" suggests a higher-probability decline with the following targets:
1 - TG-Lo = 97.65 - 17 AUG 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 86.37 - 17 AUG 2015
Whereas, the "Watch Line = 71.30 - 17 AUG 2015" represents a timeframe conversion threshold (typically a four-fold conversion from current to higher - e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, H4 to daily, ... Weekly to Monthly).
OCCULT GEOMETRIES:
1 - NODULAR CORE
There is a high-probability resistance imposing at/near the 110.91, corresponding to a Nodule that formed over a prior historical bullish swing. This respite carved out a "nodule", whose core (i.e.: 50%) is offering a high-probability support-to-resistance level, herein defined at (119.54 + 102.28)/2 = 50% = 110.91.
2 - GEO:
The Geo is an elaboration of the Wolfe Wave, using internal geometric correspondence and rules, such that Leg 1-2 represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, Leg 2-3 a complex Elliott Wave TZZ, and Leg 4-5 a simple Elliott Wave ZZ, which is how the Geo defined itself - In contrast, I have left an outline of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave outline in faint blue, defined by the core 5-point plot and its 1-4 Target Line.
The Geo is an important market geometry element, as it defines a high-probability target if and once price reverses from Point-5' or Point-5'', thus defining levels of Point-4 and Point-3 respectively as their assigned high-probability targets.
ELLIOTT WAVE ("EW"):
As we consider the possibility of further decline based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model, we may consider what the mechanism of decline might utilize as a technical vehicle. Here, I assume that a bearish impulse is pending, with internal compensations ("EW's Rules of Alternations") that justifies the Geo development, as simplicity of Wave-2 comes balanced by the complexity of Wave-4. Hence, one might consider that further downside consideration is justified at this time.
OVERALL: Bearish outlook based on the foreground assertion of the Predictive/Forecasting Model. A temporizing rally might occur, as drawn by the speculative dashed arrows, but bears remain in charge.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered LowerIn " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy .
Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright.
Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth.
I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take action that will pop asset inflation. I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation.
Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous.
Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against both sides of tail risk (inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok.
However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold.
As I wrote last April:
" There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 1.2 percent.
Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation.
When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC. "
If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX. There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation.
Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap.
I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin.
Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some time.
(Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added).
Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.
SPY vs Gold Ratio at upper limitPast ~1.5yrs the ratio between SPX500 and gold (XAUUSD) has followed a channel defined by a 3pt trend line on top and its parallel 2pt trend line below.
Currently close to its upper limit. The past 2 peaks were "resolved" by a short term increase in the price of gold, thereby lowering the ratio (increasing the denominator).
Alternative resolutions include:, SPY can drop. or, they both drop but SPY drop faster.
Also, see RSI of the ratio with long signal for Gold and short for SPY
Gold gogothis is probably one of my favorite chart ever that internally makes me excited.
bullish signals appear at the right timing
Gold up
market down?
Gold - if it breaks 1220 on current thrust should hit fib @1260 4 hour chart shows the Hust Cycle cross over to bullish price movement followed by this evening's open with a thrust toward the very critical 1220. Break out above 1220 should hit fib extension target at 1260 by end of week.
GDXJ, WeeklyI know nothing of gold except what ZeroHedge tells me to think, but, boy, that's a lot of volume. Maybe time to ease in this or NUGT if you think an up trend is beginning.
Bullish Leveraged Gold ETFs Get Hammered – A Pullback Warranted?Given the large gains seen over the last two days, there could be support in the cards for leveraged minor ETFs following profit taking. NUGT, Direxion Daily Gold Miners, is the 3x leverage of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
Price action is heavily to the downside, reaching support at $9.11 – forming a triple-bottom on the two-hour chart. Price visited this level on December 16 and 24, and NUGT is currently treading water. A short-term pullback is probable given the steep oversold condition, with the RSI at 16. The – DMI has ticked lower, signaling that downside could take a breather. However, the ADX is still sloping upward which is indicative of strong trend continuation.
Next, the underlying benchmark GDX is showing the same negative sentiment. The chart, in many ways, is similar to NUGT. If the gold miners ETF can rally to the targeted resistance level of $18.46, this would represent a 9.51 percent increase in NUGT, or a move to $9.98 and just shy of the $10.08 resistance level. If prices can extend to the second resistance target of $18.74, NUGT could potentially extend to $10.33.
Conversely, there is the likelihood that the intraday trend could continue lower. In this case, if GDX were to trade lower to the first support level of $17.55 then NUGT could move lower to $8.37 and break the triple-bottom support. A larger move to $17.35 would reflect a 28.5 percent loss in NUGT, causing the bearish ETF to fall to $6.48.
As always, intraday charts are vulnerable to significant volatility caused by headline risk and potential outlook is only suitable for the next few trading sessions.
See full post here: bullion.directory
Gold miners GDX One possible way to see it.This is how I currently see the GDX. Like the chart I posted on gold I see the GDX likely in a long term triangle. At any rate it looks to me like it has recently finished a well defined channel down with a large volume spike at the bottom. Of course it could go down one more time to retouch the lower channel line but I favor it has begin a upward A-B-C perhaps to be forming a even larger triangle. That is guessing a lot but if the trend is now up a .618 to .786 correction certainly seems possible. This also fits with my view of the US dollar which is it likely is about to drop. This is all speculation but I like to anticipate based on the price pattern but wait til price action indicates it is reasonable to invest. Also this chart shows two nice examples of negative reversal in the RSI which often leads to new lows in price or at least a significant retracement. Take care. Have a great rest of the week. Goodguy.
Gold looking for support The 50 day simple moving average combined with the .618 retrace held as support...for now. Gold could bounce from here but if not 1200 would be a good entry point.
Pick a sidePick a Side Red or Blue.
I want to see the RED play out, but I think it will be the BLUE
What do you think???
FOMC releases placed on a $SPY chart. $DIA $NUGT $JNUG $AAPLJust a simple chart showing FOMC results on SPY.
My gold trend linesThese are just my trend lines in the chart. take a look and make your own decisions.
basic chart Gold battleground $NUGT $DUST $JNUG $JDST Gold is battling the 100 day simple moving average and a downward trend line. Volume has been decreasing which may indicate this move up is tired. IF gold breaks 1225 with decent volume, then 1240 is a given and 1250 is resistance. 2 possible trades here. 1. gold breaks below 1200, easy short to 1180 OR 2. break of 1225, easy long to 1245ish.
Hi-Prop Reversal @ 0.80821 | $XAU $AUD $USD $NUGT $Gold #forexPREDICTIVE/FORECASTING TARGET:
High-Probility Reversal at:
- TG-Lo = 0.80821 - 22 DEC 2014 = Predictive/Forecasting Model
TECHNICAL SUPPORT:
- Target comes in alignment with a historical R/S level in WEEKLY chart
- Fibonacci-paced retracement at 0.382 provides close-approximation with overhead structure at 0.86591
CHART ACTIVITY CORRELATIONS:
GOLD: $XAU, $JNUG
Note that in recent chart, a similar bullish reversal expectation has developed. A rallying in this $AUD would maintain the historical positive correlation that exists with $XAU and other gold-related ETFs - See $XAU and $JNUG charts in the links.
GEOMETRIC PATTERN:
Note also that the $AUDUSD chart (see link) has come to rest at a triple-bottom completion, following two parabolic pathway, one small followed by a larger, a pattern defined as a Bullish Kiss Of Death.
OVERALL:
AUDUSD favors a rallying at this level, based on structural significance (R/S level attainment best seen in a weekly chart), as well as corroborating technical features in positively-correlated charts, where rallying is also pending.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Will NUGT cross DUST in January?The average time between DUST/NUGT crosses the last 2 times is 82 bars. If that happens near the average were looking at the end of January. I think NUGT has more downside first but I would like to see 1125-1150 hold for gold and 8-8.50 hold for NUGT before getting too excited.
Potential Rallying At 1.49 | $DUST $BARS $NUGT $Gold #forexPREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING:
- TG-Lo = 1.49 - 17 DEC 2014: Low-Prob Attainment, High-Prob Reversal
- TG-x = 0.83 - 17 DEC 2014: Extreme Target/Invalidation level if breached
- Bearish Entrenchment: 21.16/23.08 range
FIBONACCI:
- 0.618-Fib retracement at 22.81 into bearish predictive model's entrenchment
ELLIOTT WAVE:
- Point-2 results from a w-x-y-xx-z complex correction
- EWP's Rule of Alternation call for simpler 4th wave formation
PATTERN:
- Bearish channel validation at/near predictive model values
OCCULT GEO:
Bearish impulse's upper and lower nodule draw core geometry at/near historical pivot ~ 14.00/14.14
OVERALL:
Technically-driven bullish outlook. Proprietary pattern (Great White) call for rallying in this vicinity. Unwinding of price to the upside calls for high-probability Fibonacci guidance to standard 0.618 level.
Volume spike likely institutional, acting much like stopping volume activity. This should be regarded as suspicious, in preparation of a probable counter-trend price action.
Alignment of 0.618-Fibonacci with Model's bearish entrenchment adds credence to rallying target - Expect a temporizing event at/near 14.00 level.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
