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Gold Already Moving to the All-Time-High - XAUWCU leading XAUUSDAfter discovering the World Currency Unit (WCU), essentially a basket of GDP-weighted currencies, and looking into how it was calculated, I realized it would likely serve as a better indicator of the Real Value of Gold & Silver. I've been following this exact chart for a while now; Very interesting how well it's lining up with fib levels, as you can see. I've noticed that almost every unexpected Bull/Bear move that has had no obvious cause (due to news, or technicals on XAUUSD) did have an obvious technical cause on XAUWCU. For example, when considering when Gold broke out of the long term downward trend from the 2011 top: XAUUSD : Jan. 25, 2019 XAUWCU : Dec. 17, 2018 Additionally, when considering when Gold broke out of the long term horizontal resistance dating back to 2013: XAUUSD : June 18, 2019 XAUWCU : as early as June 7, 2018 and backtesting while it waited for XAUUSD to break out.
FX_IDC:XAUWCULong
by liamcambra
3
ABBV Sell Vacuum - Understanding Climaxes and VacuumsABBV is selling off this week in a third leg down from the buy climax and all time high. Although it looks strong at first glance, this is more likely a sell vacuum (sell climax) than the start of a strong bear breakout. A vacuum is created when strong bulls step aside and wait for prices to reach a location they want to buy, and the strong bears continue to hold for the same price level (and some continue to sell). This creates a temporary one sided market. This sell off is likely a test the previous converging triangle, and middle of the trading range preceding the bull breakout. The bulls will look to form some sort of double bottom which could be a failed breakout below the 60 or 50 lows, or an actual double bottom. If there is a reversal up next week, it would form a parabolic wedge bull flag, bears will look to take profits and bulls will look to re-establish longs. If instead there is continued selling and a strong breakout below the 50 low, the bears will likely get a test of the opening tight trading range around 40. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
NYSE:ABBV
by tradersmentality
FED WON'T cut rates - gold will go back downI'm anticipating the FED not cutting rates - this will cause other central banks to cut, which will force the dollar $DXY up and gold down. Chart looks like a double-top is forming with momentum sliding. Again, the only way gold goes up if we start war with Iran which last week looked like it was going to happen. Doesn't look like most of the globe is accepting the false-flag narrative being espoused by necons. I think the FED will cut in September or December even. At which I see a risk-off happening where people will run into stocks while gold will look lackluster against it.
AMEX:GLDShort
by JustinBilyj
2
Gold's direction stay LONG I'm thinking that pullback (blue arrow) was either a 1/2 cycle low or the end of the 1st DC. If its the 1/2 cycle low we should move higher towards $1390 as the top. If its the later we are on day 2 of the 2nd DC. The first DC was 34 days long which is right in line with the previous cycles. If I am right we should blow past the previous high at $1348 easily. If we get resistance and start going side ways then it may be the end of the 1st DC and we get that notorious heavy sell off. IMHO
FX:XAUUSDLong
by bhowe
2
Gold Miners - Push Up Incoming Welcome back guys, sorry for disappearing for a while, I’ll be post more frequently after June! But in the mean time… here’s what I’m looking at right now. First, let’s acknowledge that trading gold miners have been pretty boring lately given the tight range it’s been stuck in. That’s why I was primarily day trading for the past month to avoid taking overnight risk, aka the battle between negative macro news and Trump trying to bring the sentiment back up by tweeting. Now if you look at the GDX chart, you’ll see that the past 31 days have been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, meaning a lack of trend either up or down. However, this type of pattern usually represents a large move to either side is highly likely, since large players have been likely accumulating or dumping shares throughout this flat period. This time around, I’m betting that it breaks to the upside. The reasons are as follows: Potential catalysts for Gold and Gold Miners: 1.) GDX is showing very strong upward momentum on the Money Flow Index, which is similar to the RSI except adding in volume. It’s showing that even though prices are not trending, buying pressure is increasing. I see this as bullish in the short term. 2.) Macro news will likely remain negative when considering the EU, therefore positive for gold a. May has to step down, speculation is betting on the next leader to be tougher about Brexit. High potential for an exit without a trade deal to minimize economic impact. b. Economic growth will not likely show a strong reversal anytime soon, given that negative interest rates have done very little to spur growth so far. 3.) Macro news in the US will most likely be neutral. a. Trump will most likely continue to tweet positive hope for deal. He has to calm the markets at least until he’s re-elected. b. Labor market is still showing increasing tightness. However PMI and new home sales have been failing to meet expectations. c. Next round of corporate earnings will not likely be as easy to beat as this first quarter. Since expectations were set extremely low. 4.) Market sentiment has been tough to break recently. With money flowing in to buy up the gap downs. Mainstream media is usually a good place to judge how the general public is feeling, and usually you should be looking for confirmation of the opposite direction of whichever way the news is saying the market will go. Right now I see some positive and some negative, leading me to believe the market will continue to be choppy with no clear direction, which is bullish for gold since uncertainty will maintain a support for safe haven assets. 5.) M&A activity picks up, bullish for miners. (This is probably not likely to happen any time soon, just fun to think about) a. An increase in M&A activity could draw investor attention to this long forgotten sector. All in all, I’m currently long miners with a healthy position in $NUGT. Placing my stop-loss a little more than half a percent below the nearest support. There might be a final push down by the big players to gather liquidity in order to make the breakthrough push upwards.
AMEX:GDXLong
by FireFly450
1
Gold Breaks Through Support As PredictedGold breaks through strong support region, pushed down by positive macro news flow as predicted in my previous post. This completes the descending triangle pattern, was a reversal The support region marked could be changed based on more news flow, will be updated regularly. 1.) More positive earnings surprises will likely follow 2.) Positive trade news is more likely than negative trade news 3.) No Brexit fears currently to support Gold prices Check out my blog gdxdaily.com to see how I determine my investment thesis!
TVC:GOLDShort
by FireFly450