Nvaxshort
NVAX Bullish Breakout After Settlement of Gavi DisputeNVAX Technical Analysis
NVAX has been showing some solid bullishness since settling the Gavi dispute. NVAX is pumping out of the buy zone, and there has been a bullish breakout above the light blue resistance line. The key price target ahead is the green resistance line ($6.36), a yellow resistance zone ($8.20 to $8.46), and a red resistance line ($10.23). I have $3.54 to $3.93 as my new buy zone. I think there are likely to be more buy opportunities around there. For now the price is bullish and trending up.
Novavax Reaches Settlement With Gavi, Paving The Way Forward
In a significant development announced on February 22, Novavax, a key player in the COVID-19 vaccine market, has reached a settlement with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, resolving a contentious dispute over unfulfilled vaccine orders. This settlement marks a critical juncture for Novavax, alleviating financial uncertainties and setting the stage for future growth and collaborations.
The Dispute Resolution
Novavax has committed to repaying Gavi a minimum of $475 million, either in cash or through vaccine supplies, by the end of 2028. This agreement comes as a resolution to a conflict stemming from Novavax’s inability to deliver on a contract for up to 350 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, despite Gavi’s advance payment of $700 million in 2021 and 2022.
Impact On Novavax
The announcement led to a significant surge in Novavax’s stock price, which climbed by 23.2% to $4.91 following the news. This is a noteworthy rebound for the company, whose stock had previously plummeted by nearly 60% amid concerns over its operational viability. The settlement not only removes a major financial overhang but also enhances Novavax’s appeal as a business partner, according to CEO John Jacobs.
Settlement Terms
Under the terms of the settlement, Novavax has made an upfront payment of $75 million to Gavi, with additional payments of $80 million annually in quarterly installments scheduled through 2028. These payments can be adjusted if Gavi opts to receive vaccines instead of cash. The agreement also includes provisions for extra vaccine credits, potentially worth up to $225 million, should demand exceed the annual $80 million mark.
Strategic Implications For Novavax
The resolution of this dispute is pivotal for Novavax, offering a path to stabilize its financials and focus on future endeavors. CEO John Jacobs highlighted the settlement’s role in mitigating the risk of a substantial one-time payment and enabling better cash flow management. The estimated present value of the settlement ranges between $300 and $400 million, signaling a strategic financial recalibration for the company.
Looking Ahead
With new leadership at the helm of both Novavax and Gavi, this agreement signals a fresh start and a mutual focus on future collaborations and initiatives. Novavax is already eyeing new revenue streams, with plans to introduce a combination COVID-flu vaccine by 2026 and capitalize on a malaria vaccine developed in partnership with the Serum Institute of India. These initiatives, coupled with significant cost reductions and operational streamlining, underscore Novavax’s commitment to overcoming past challenges and seizing future opportunities.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the settlement between Novavax and Gavi not only resolves a major dispute but also highlights the resilience and strategic pivoting of Novavax amidst the complexities of the global vaccine landscape. As the company navigates beyond its COVID-centric phase, this development offers promising insights into its potential for innovation, growth, and partnerships in the years to come.
$NVAX Trending Back Down to the Buy ZoneNVAX has started distributing millions of COVID-19 vaccine shots. However, NVAX is trending back down towards the buy zone. I think that this will present a great second chance buy opportunity after NVAX's recent rally to $8. The markets have been affected by the new Israel Palestine conflict. Other key events this week are September PPI inflation data and Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday October 11. I think the markets are likely to have some sideways price action on Tuesday in anticipation of the new inflation and fed data.
NVAX - Novavax Biotech Short or not?NVAX as seen on the weekly chart has been in price distress for a long time.
It has only one product on the market due to various issues with the FDA process.
It has a variety of products in development as linked below.
The question is whether it will run out of cash before a sustained revenue
stream develops. FDA approvals for the pipeline products could take years
( the days of emergency approvals for COVID and related are over)
It would seem that a rich uncle like Moderna ( MRNA) would codcme
around with a take-over offer that could send shares into a moonshot
to back when NVAX thrived before its 95% price decline in the past two
years. This seems to be a great short swing play until more products come
to market or a take-over is announced. This is affirmed by the MACD
histogram being persistently negative for the long-term.
NVAX Text book bearish Shark patternHi guys, NVAX showed up on my feed today as down 25% so I decided to take a look. What I see is a text book Bearish Shark attack on the stock. Looking at the embedded image in this chart you can compare the events as they occurred. The stock price has also gone back to beginning of the rally.
Please do your DD this is not a financial advice.
Novavax in a bear flag.Novavax - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 15.49 (stop at 17.01)
Daily signals are bearish.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Prices are extending lower from the bearish flag/pennant formation.
Posted a bearish Flag formation.
A break of 15.50 is needed to confirm the outlook.
The bias is to break to the downside.
This stock has seen poor sales growth.
Our outlook is bearish.
Our profit targets will be 12.12 and 11.62
Resistance: 18.00 / 18.55 / 19.50
Support: 16.30 / 15.53 / 15.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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