NVDIA Is this -35% correction enough to be a buy opportunity?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) completed a -35% decline from its top on Monday's Low and after a short rebound, it's consolidating. Even though this is the strongest correction it had since the late 2022 market bottom and it almost touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in October 2022, there might be room for some more downside before the next long-term Bullish Leg.
It is important also to note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is still intact as the 20-month Support and the 1D RSI broke the 35.00 level (almost oversold) on Monday. All the above suggest that NVDIA hit a new long-term buy level/ Support.
The Bullish Divergence though on its 1D RSI (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) may indicate the opposite than it normally does. The reason is purely on NVDIA's last such pattern, which basically led to the October 13 2022 bottom.
As you can see, that correction continued the price's Lower Lows despite the ongoing RSI Higher Lows, until it completed a -44% correction. That suggest that there might be room for another -9% decline before the stock breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and starts the new Bullish Leg for good. Of course if it breaks above it earlier, then this pattern projection is invalidated.
As a result, it is recommended to buy the current bottom so that we won't miss on a potential upside by breaking above the 1D MA50 earlier but at the same time reserve some cash for the possibility of a -44% decline around the $80.00 level. In both cases, we will set a $190.00 Target (horizon before end 2024), which is a 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the current bottom.
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NVDA
$NVDA top in. Bottom between $25-40As you can see from the chart, NASDAQ:NVDA formed a double top at the highs and has started it's bear market.
I think from here we're going to see a move down that goes lower than what most people expect will happen.
I've seen a lot of people sharing that they want to bid the $72 region, which would make sense if this was a normal correction, however, I think this is a larger market wide panic and that price will go lower than what most people expect.
I think price is likely to hit the target in the bottom box by the end of 2025.
Let's see what happens over the coming months.
Nvidia Stock Rebounds 7% on Analysts Highlight Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) saw a rebound in early trading on Tuesday, following a sharp decline on Monday caused by reports of a delay in the release of its Blackwell artificial intelligence (AI) chip. The stock had tumbled more than 6% amid a broader global stock market rout. Despite the initial panic, analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects and its leadership in the AI space.
Key Takeaways
- Rebound After Decline: Nvidia shares rebounded after a spokesperson clarified that the production of the Blackwell AI chip is still on track to ramp up in the second half of the year.
- AI Leadership: Bullish analysts believe Nvidia's strong position in the AI market will mitigate any short-term volatility caused by the reported delay.
- Analysts' Perspective: Analysts from major financial institutions, including Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia's long-term performance despite potential short-term setbacks.
Nvidia's Response to Delay Rumors
Nvidia addressed the concerns head-on, with a spokesperson stating, "Blackwell sampling has started, and production is on track to ramp in the second half of the year. Beyond that, we don't comment on rumors.” This statement aimed to reassure investors that the company is on schedule, despite the swirling rumors.
Analysts Remain Bullish
Oppenheimer analysts emphasized Nvidia's robust competitive position in the AI market, asserting that a minor delay would not lead to a loss of market share. They highlighted Nvidia's comprehensive AI hardware and software solutions as a key strength.
Goldman Sachs analysts acknowledged the possibility of near-term volatility but downplayed its impact on Nvidia's earnings for the 2025 calendar year. They stressed that Nvidia's long-term competitive position remains intact.
Citi analysts, despite removing Nvidia from their "upside catalyst watch" due to the delay reports, continued to hold a "buy" rating for the stock. They maintained confidence in Nvidia's ongoing performance.
Bank of America analysts viewed potential supply constraints as a "solvable" issue, suggesting that any resultant sell-off would be an "enhanced buying opportunity." Their long-term bullish stance on Nvidia remains unchanged.
Market Performance
As of the time of writing, Nvidia shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) had risen by 7%, reaching $106.48. Despite recent market turbulence, Nvidia's stock has more than doubled in value since the beginning of the year, showcasing its resilience and the strong confidence investors have in the company's future.
Conclusion
While the reported delay in Nvidia's Blackwell AI chip initially spooked the market, the company's clarification and the continued confidence of analysts highlight Nvidia's solid position in the AI industry. The consensus among analysts is that Nvidia's long-term prospects remain strong, bolstered by its leadership in AI technology. Investors seem to agree, as evidenced by the stock's quick rebound.
Next real support for NVDA is around 92Short term trend is DN with angle 2 now approaching UP angles 2-3.
We have RED TrapZone and RED UMVD with RED BAR. That means there is no Buy signals for some time.
If you are tempted to Buy, just look to the LEFT when the TrapZone was GREEN and Trap Bars were GREEN with GREEN UMVD - That is how Buy environment looks like.
GREEN UMVD will show that buyers are starting to come in. What do you think ?
Update: VIXIts been a while but those who follow me know I posted extensively about the VIX months back and as we can see, the VIX is very much in the news lately due to its current historical spike.
It was not one of the more popular topics at the time I was talking about it but as you can see on this chart outlined here, that this is an extremely powerful resource and should be one of my most popular posts in my opinion.
The VIX was and still is highly accurate in regard to being an indicator of when to be risk on vs risk off. The levels I drew have been respected for the last few years perfectly and historically after we've seen sudden spikes, they were short lived and the index came back down to levels that were very friendly to bulls. Historically, the last time volatility was at this level, Covid Pandemic had just happened. Shortly after markets rallied 100% before finally entering a bear market TWO YEARS later.
In the coming weeks keep an eye on the VIX to see if it returns back below 15 basis points in that sweet Buy and Hold area that I have labeled on the chart.
Nvidia is down 14% in Monday's Trading Entering Acquisition ZoneNvidia, a leading player in the semiconductor and AI sectors, has been making waves in 2024 with a series of strategic acquisitions. Despite facing increasing regulatory scrutiny and a cooling trend in AI mergers and acquisitions (M&A), the company is positioning itself for what could be its most acquisitive year yet. However, Nvidia's aggressive expansion strategy has not come without its challenges, reflected in its recent stock performance.
Nvidia's Acquisition Strategy in 2024
As of mid-2024, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has announced four acquisition deals, matching its total for the entire year of 2020. This activity underscores the company's commitment to bolstering its capabilities and expanding its influence in the AI and semiconductor industries. Some of the notable acquisitions include:
1. Run:ai: In April, Nvidia agreed to acquire this Israeli firm known for its technology that enhances GPU efficiency. However, the deal has yet to close due to regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).
2. Deci AI: Another Israeli startup, Deci AI, was acquired in May for $300 million. Deci AI provides tools for developers to build AI models, further strengthening Nvidia's position in the AI ecosystem.
These acquisitions highlight Nvidia's strategy to integrate advanced technologies and enhance its product offerings, especially in the AI domain. However, the company’s rapid expansion has attracted the attention of regulators.
Regulatory Hurdles and Market Reactions
Nvidia's acquisition spree is occurring under the watchful eyes of regulators. The DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) are investigating Nvidia, along with Microsoft and OpenAI, for potential antitrust violations. This scrutiny has delayed some of Nvidia's deals, including the acquisition of Run:ai, reflecting broader concerns about market concentration in the rapidly growing AI sector.
The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly challenging for large tech companies. Nvidia's past experience with regulatory interference is notable, particularly the failed $40 billion acquisition of ARM from SoftBank in 2020, which was terminated in February 2022 due to regulatory hurdles. This history underscores the complexities and risks associated with large-scale acquisitions in the tech industry.
Market Performance and Investor Sentiment
Amid these regulatory challenges, Nvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility. Recently, Nvidia shares plummeted 14% in Monday's trading session, marking a substantial decline that brought the stock price to sub-$100 levels. This drop is part of a broader trend affecting the semiconductor sector, with other major players like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel also seeing substantial declines.
The market reaction reflects investor concerns over regulatory risks and the overall health of the tech sector. The semiconductor industry is particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and macroeconomic factors, all of which have contributed to recent market volatility.
Opportunities and Risks
Despite these challenges, Nvidia remains a powerhouse in the AI and semiconductor industries. The company's acquisitions aim to enhance its technological capabilities and maintain its competitive edge. For instance, the integration of Run:ai's technology could significantly improve GPU efficiency, while Deci AI's tools could streamline the development of AI models, both of which are crucial for Nvidia's growth strategy.
Technical Outlook
At present, Nvidia stock ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has declined by 10.61% and is trading above both the 50-day and 100-day Moving Averages (MAs). The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, placing it within the oversold territory. Concurrently, the broader stock indexes and the cryptocurrency market are undergoing a downturn, with Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) plummeting to $50k, underscoring the market's volatility.
This situation has resulted in a 1 billion-dollar liquidation of trades today. Prior to engaging in any stock transactions today, it is prudent to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has decreased by -2.29, indicating a pronounced bearish divergence.
Conclusion
Nvidia's aggressive acquisition strategy in 2024 reflects its ambition to dominate the AI and semiconductor sectors. While the company is navigating a complex regulatory environment and market volatility, its recent deals highlight its commitment to innovation and growth. Investors and industry observers will be closely watching Nvidia's next moves, especially as it approaches its earnings announcement on August 28. Despite the challenges, Nvidia's strategic acquisitions and technological advancements position it well for future opportunities in the dynamic and competitive tech landscape.
Nvidia under investigation by DOJ over competitive practicesNvidia, a leader in the artificial intelligence processor market, is under investigation by the US Department of Justice (DOJ). The probe, reported by The Information, focuses on allegations that Nvidia may have engaged in anti-competitive practices to maintain its market dominance. Specific concerns include potential restrictions placed on competition through product bundling and aggressive strategies aimed at deterring customers from engaging with competitors.
The investigation extends to accusations that Nvidia pressured cloud service providers into purchasing combinations of products, such as A100 or H100 GPUs and Mellanox-branded networking equipment, which could limit customer choices. Furthermore, the DOJ is scrutinising whether Nvidia imposed higher prices on networking equipment for customers who opted for AI processors from competitors like AMD and Intel.
Technical analysis of NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Here follows a review of NVIDIA's stock performance for potential trading opportunities:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is currently in a downtrend, influenced by broader market negativity and the recent allegations
Resistance level : 118.80 USD
Support level : 102.40 USD
Short-term target : if the downtrend continues and the support at 102.40 USD is breached, a short-term target could be set at 88.00 USD
Medium-term target : with further negative momentum, the price could potentially decline to 75.50 USD
Potential uptrend scenario : if market sentiment improves and Nvidia manages to navigate the investigation without significant damage, an uptrend could see the stock rise towards 130.00 USD
Investors and traders should closely monitor the developments of this DOJ investigation, as it could significantly impact Nvidia's business practices and market positioning. The outcome could have long-term implications for Nvidia's operations and its relationship with customers and competitors in the highly competitive AI processor market.
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Sitting on SupportWhat a beauty we see in $NVDA. The RSI is cooling to the oversold territory and volume is coming back in. It appears we are sitting on support and are ready to make a move back to the upside. Consolidation is being built and it looks like we are ready for the next bullish move. MACD is beginning to show some rotation and we are still well above the 200SMA which indicates NASDAQ:NVDA is still bullish. Short term with the weaker market over all, this and all of the market may pull back but, this one seems to be the strongest of them all. Let's see where it goes and how it holds the test of time.
$SPY Sharp Decline?! $503 Target, $493 possible 8/21, then $520Thats right folks. Your's truly with another quick thought on where I think we're headed, and FAST!! Assuming we repeat the First Half of 2022, I want to say that the next 10 days will produce a dump and a bounce. Do be careful if you're long this market. All signs point to a flash crash to $493 and then a mean bounce to retest $520. Don't forget, cash is a position. I like to keep things simple with my charts for the most part. ATM, I am looking at the 10D chart. I like the 10D chart because it has hidden divergences on RSI that prove extremely useful. As the days go on, it will get easier. Those that doubt will always learn the Hard way. Paytience will always prevail. After $520 bounce, I would assume a slow bleed to $480 into the election for a new low, followed by an Election Rally back to $530 before we come back crashing down. All of this will come with time and I'm writing it down so you can see my thought process. Everything takes time.
Drop to $503-$494
Hard Bounce to $520
Slow Bleed to $480, Previous ATH Winter 22'
Bounce to $530 for a Retest of Previous Support should we break. Good Luck out there
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$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
$NVDA heading toward critical support / LONG ENTRY @ SUPPORT NASDAQ:NVDA shares have traded lower after touching on previous target ($!40) highs.
Expecting the potential for more draw-down to $95 - $97, which keeps us at the midline for trend support (bullish).
Eyeing long opportunities at that support level, with firm stop-loss below.
Expect volatility with the TVC:VIX exploding to $29+ in today's trading session.
I am long NASDAQ:NVDA with a $32 cost basis..
Currently holding 3/25 expiration $130 calls with a 20% ROI, so far.
Nvidia Adds $330 Billion in a Single DayNvidia's stock valuation skyrocketed, adding $330 billion in a single day, surpassing its prior record gain of $277 billion.
This increase was fueled by Microsoft announcing a 60% increase in AI spending for 2024, totaling $69 billion.
Consequently, Nvidia's stock price surged nearly 13%, elevating its market cap to $2.88 trillion and making it the third-most valuable company globally, behind Apple and Microsoft.
Despite this record-setting performance, Nvidia faced a tumultuous July, with its stock price decreasing by 16% throughout the month, closing down 5% despite a partial recovery.
This decline reflected broader market volatility, as seen in the Nasdaq’s 1.5% drop. On Tuesday, Nvidia's shares dipped 7%, testing the crucial $100 support level.
However, the positive response to Microsoft's investment suggests Nvidia might maintain its momentum above this critical threshold.
Last month, the stock hit multiple highs, peaking at $140 on June 20, indicating strong market confidence. For Nvidia to surpass this record high, its stock would need an additional 20% gain.
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Valuation Trade Setups: NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, PINS & SilverI have been filled long on some trades based on my valuation trading strategy.
In this video I explain the strategy (conditional criteria, entries & money management) implemented with this weeks entries in NVDA, AVGO & Silver (as well as resting orders for GOOGL, AMZN & PINS). I also briefly explain the idea of "relative strength", which I applied this week when I decided to long Silver instead of Copper.
Enjoy.
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AMD Skyrockets Over 9%, Nvidia Rises: What’s Driving the Surge?Overview
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ) saw its shares soar over 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday, following an impressive second-quarter earnings report that exceeded expectations. The strong performance has also positively impacted rival Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), which experienced a rise in its stock price. Here’s a detailed look at what’s happening and why AMD is grabbing headlines.
Record-Breaking Q2 Performance
NASDAQ:AMD ’s second-quarter results were stellar, with revenue and earnings surpassing Wall Street's expectations. The highlight was a record surge in data center revenue, which soared to $2.8 billion, marking a 115% year-over-year increase and a 21% sequential growth. This surge was driven by high demand for AMD's Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors.
CEO's Optimism
Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, expressed confidence in the company’s trajectory, stating, “Our AI business continued accelerating and we are well positioned to deliver strong revenue growth in the second half of the year led by demand for Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors.” This positive outlook has further fueled investor confidence.
Strong AI Business Growth
A significant contributor to AMD's success has been its AI business. On the earnings call, Su mentioned that leading cloud and enterprise providers expanded the availability of Instinct MI300X solutions, and quarterly revenue for MI300 exceeded $1 billion for the first time. This milestone underscores the robust demand for AMD’s AI and data center products.
Impact on Rivals and Sector-Wide Rally
The positive sentiment generated by AMD's strong quarterly results has extended to other semiconductor companies, particularly Nvidia. Nvidia shares rose 5.40% to $109.40 in premarket trading, buoyed by the anticipation of its upcoming earnings report on August 28. Qualcomm also experienced gains, as AMD’s success provided a boost to the overall sector.
Geopolitical and Sector-Wide Factors
The semiconductor sector received additional uplift from reports suggesting potentially less severe U.S. export restrictions on China. According to news sources, new U.S. chip export restrictions might exclude allies like the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea, which alleviated some concerns in the market. This news, combined with positive earnings, contributed to the rally in semiconductor stocks.
Global Semiconductor Rally
Shares of global semiconductor firms rallied on Wednesday, boosted by the strong earnings in the sector and favorable geopolitical developments. Samsung’s shares rose significantly after a notable jump in operating profit, and ASML also saw gains following the Reuters report on U.S. export restrictions.
AMD Stock Performance
NASDAQ:AMD stock, which had been down over 6% year-to-date, climbed 9.40% to $151.45 in premarket trading. If these gains hold, NASDAQ:AMD could erase its year-to-date losses. This strong market reaction reflects the confidence investors have in AMD’s growth trajectory and its ability to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI and data center technologies.
Conclusion
AMD's exceptional second-quarter performance, driven by record data center revenue and robust growth in its AI business, has significantly boosted its stock price and positively impacted the broader semiconductor sector. The appointment of CEO Lisa Su and the company’s strategic focus on high-demand areas like AI and data centers have positioned NASDAQ:AMD for continued success. As the semiconductor industry navigates geopolitical challenges and market fluctuations, AMD's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it a standout player.