Stock Market ceiling, 5260$SPX500 hits ceiling somewhere around April to June. (if current trend holds intact)
NVDA
S&P 500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 04/03/2024BUY ABOVE - 5140
SL - 5132
TARGETS - 5150,5160,5170
SELL BELOW - 5132
SL - 5140
TARGETS - 5120,5110,5100
NO TRADE ZONE - 5132 to 5140
Previous Day High - 5140
Previous Day Low - 5094
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
AAPL breaks below its 1 year upward trendAAPL has recently broken below its 1 year upward signaling more selling to come. This pivotal event comes at a time when
Overall market sentiment is showing extreme greed (selling soon follows this level)
Recent rally have been prompted by one stocks excellent earnings (NVDA alone cant hold up the economy)
AAPL has been trend down rather steadily for a month
The long term support being broken indicates more selling likely to come.
SQ's rally looks unstable and weakSQ's recent rally shows weakness and not founded on solid reasoning. Current price level appears risky.
SQ had a good rally from Oct to Dec and contracted a fair amount and held. Later on....
SQ had bad earnings
NVDA a very unrelated stock had great earnings pushing SQ up
Recent gap up is clearly irrational
Recent rally is unstable and should expect a contraction in the nearish future
NVIDIA: Large MovesOverview
My first two publications on this idea were removed and I was banned for a day so let's try this out again:
... I finally gave in and started looking into NASDAQ:NVDA and I'm glad I did. If I was going to comfortably invest in derivatives or shares of the tech company, I needed to perform a full evaluation and determine pragmatic price targets.
Price Projections
I have two macro projections and one micro projection that I would like to share with you. On the 1D chart I've established two Fibonacci retracements: one representing uptrend (green) and the other representing a downtrend (red).
At the current moment of this publication, an ascending triangle is beginning to form on the hourly and daily charts. This leads me to believe that the markets haven't had their fill yet and that NVDA is most likely gearing up for another rally. If this breakout does occur, I believe that a price target of $750 is reasonable as this value rests around the 161.8% Fib level.
For my second macro projection: a correction to the low $300s, or even mid $200s, is a reality as both of these values rest around or near a 50% or 61.8% Fib retracement level. The market does not appear to feel bearish on NVIDIA and a correction like this would require the current ascending triangle to become invalid which is unlikely without an external catalyst -- which is most definitely in existence. I explain this concept in more detail later in this article; you can find it under "NVIDIA Outsourcing."
And finally, for those of us that want to make all the short and medium-term trades in-between, I've attached a copy of my projections within the ascending triangle and attempted to match them to the market's sentiments. This led me to project a double bottom within the current pattern. There is a possible second ascending triangle forming at the moment so I am remaining cognizant of significant support around the $470-480 range in the chance that this causes an invalid double-top (M pattern) and a potentially earlier breakout.
About the CEO
Jensen Huang is the CEO and President of NVIDIA and has held his title since 1993 when he first co-founded the company. He has a Master of Science in Engineering from Stanford University and, from what I've seen in a couple of his interviews, is very intelligent and self-aware. I'd like to regard him as a more stable version of Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.
NVIDIA Outsourcing
The impression I received during my research is that a lot of the semiconductor chips used in NVIDIA's A.I. projects are sourced from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). As you probably already guessed, TSMC is located in Taiwan. The reason I believe that this can be problematic for the company is because, as of late, China has become more outspokenly aggressive towards Taiwan whom it believes it holds sovereignty over. Should China choose to invade the nation I believe this will result in a choke on NVIDIA's production which -- on top of market reactivity -- will drive the share prices downward.
To touch on another geopolitical issue very briefly, Huang has made it clear that they supply China with limited-capacity chips to uphold National Security concerns in regards to artificial intelligence. This could very well serve as a motivator for China to want to gain control of TSMC as it would then obtain an advantage over NVIDIA: "give us fully capable chips or else." This is just my opinion and I came to this conclusion from my own research and from my limited knowledge on human psychology.
Second red flag for outsourcing, TSMC requires the use of a specific technology that is only delivered by a Dutch company called Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML). I won't dive into the full details but their technology has yet to be reverse-engineered or produced at the same efficiency. ASML provides TSMC the ability to create an end product for NVIDIA. I think it goes without saying, that if NVIDIA does not figure out how to create an equally efficient manufacturing technology, or at least close to, then if ASML one day decides to stop providing said technology -- a market crash will occur for NVIDIA.
Fundamental Analysis
Time for the dry stuff. According to NVIDIA's Q3 Earnings Call, the following data is assumed to be true:
Current Ratio (current assets/current liabilities) = 3.59 --> a 2% increase since January 29, 2023.
Cash On-Hand has increased by 62.85% since January 29, 2023.
Total Assets outpaced Total Liabilities with assets increasing by 31.49% while liabilities increased by 9.44% since January 2023.
Retained Earnings increased by 100.18% since January 29, 2023.
Long-Term Debt decreased by 12.84% since January 29, 2023.
Other notes:
NVIDIA is presently undergoing several class action lawsuits filed in the United States District Court for Northern District of California, for the District of Delaware, and in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware. The lawsuits claim that certain NVIDIA executives made misleading statements related to channel inventory (product in between the manufacturing and reseller inventory stages) and impact of cryptocurrency mining on GPU demand between May 2017 and Nov 2018.
There has been significant insider liquidation in 2023. In total, executives from NVIDIA – including Huang – have liquidated upwards of $786.8M in company shares within the calendar year. I would typically consider this a red flag but not a sign for impending declines; securing profits may be the only motivation.
NVIDIA’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program up to $25.24B. Approximately 800K shares ($366M) were repurchased by the company from October 30 - November 17, 2023. This coincides with a relatively large rally followed by a 10% dip immediately after the Q3 Earnings Call.
Nvidia's Spectacular Rise: A $2 Trillion ValuationNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the powerhouse in AI chip technology, is poised to close with a staggering $2 trillion valuation, marking a historic milestone in the realm of tech giants. The ascent comes on the heels of an optimistic forecast from Dell Technologies, propelling Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock to new heights and igniting a broader rally in the AI sector.
Dell's rosy outlook, particularly regarding the surge in orders for AI-optimized servers powered by Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) processors, served as a catalyst for the market frenzy. With Dell's shares soaring to record highs, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock surged by 3.6%, solidifying its position as a dominant force in the AI ecosystem.
At $2.05 trillion, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) now stands as the third most valuable company on Wall Street, trailing only behind tech behemoths Microsoft and Apple. This remarkable valuation underscores the pivotal role Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) plays in shaping the future of AI-driven innovation.
The ripple effects of Nvidia's success were felt across the semiconductor industry, with companies like Super Micro Computer, Broadcom, and Marvell Technology witnessing significant gains. The PHLX chip index itself rallied to a record high, reflecting the widespread enthusiasm for AI-related investments.
Nvidia's stranglehold on the high-end AI chip market, with prominent clients including OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, highlights its unrivaled position in driving advancements in generative AI technologies. As demand for its components continues to soar, Nvidia's stock has emerged as the most traded on Wall Street, surpassing even the likes of Tesla.
The meteoric rise of Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock, which has surged by 65% in 2024 alone, underscores the insatiable appetite for AI-driven solutions and the company's relentless pursuit of innovation. With its stock market value eclipsing that of tech giants like Amazon and Alphabet, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has firmly cemented its status as a powerhouse in the tech industry.
While Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) journey to a $2 trillion valuation is nothing short of remarkable, it also poses challenges and scrutiny. Questions about market dominance, supply chain constraints, and the sustainability of growth loom large as Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) continues to chart its course in the ever-evolving landscape of AI technology.
End of Day Commentary $NASDAQ $NVDA $TSLAEnd of the day commentary for the most of the trading instruments
Can we see 2500?I bet it would. Dont ask me why :) In bull market prices can go 10 times higher within a year or so.
NNOX To The Moon!!I have been in NNOX Calls for about a week now. I added to my position after reviewing the 15m chart this morning. Both ups and downs did not bottom out, they stayed strong and brought a higher high as you can see with both low white lines in my chart. Moving upwards, It seems to me that it broke the level of support and now has huge potential to gap up to the $12.25 - $14 range. If i see this stock breakout past the $14.50 mark, i am doing heavy $20c with small $10p
Micron Technology ($MU) Strike Partnership with NvidiaMicron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) emerges as a pivotal player, strategically positioning itself to capitalize on the accelerating demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Embarking on a promising trajectory, Micron's ( NASDAQ:MU ) recent collaboration with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) heralds a new chapter in its journey, propelling the company towards unprecedented growth and market dominance.
Harnessing the Power of AI:
As AI permeates diverse sectors, from autonomous vehicles to healthcare, the demand for robust computing solutions intensifies. Micron's ( NASDAQ:MU ) foresight in recognizing AI's pivotal role in shaping the future prompts strategic investments, particularly in its high-bandwidth-memory (HBM) chips. The integration of Micron's cutting-edge technology into Nvidia's latest H200 semiconductors amplifies performance, heralding a paradigm shift in AI infrastructure.
Strategic Collaboration with Nvidia:
The symbiotic partnership between Micron ( NASDAQ:MU ) and Nvidia underscores a shared vision of pioneering advancements in AI computing. Nvidia's unveiling of the H200 chip, boasting doubled inference performance over its predecessor, signifies a quantum leap in AI processing capabilities. Micron's ( NASDAQ:MU ) pivotal role in supplying HBM chips for the H200 not only underscores its technological prowess but also signifies a lucrative revenue stream, with projections hinting at generating "several hundred millions of dollars" in fiscal 2024.
Positioned for Growth:
Micron's ( NASDAQ:MU ) bullish stance on AI augurs well for its financial outlook, with projections indicating robust revenue growth amidst escalating demand for AI-related technologies. Despite an anticipated loss per share in the upcoming second-quarter earnings, Micron ( NASDAQ:MU ) remains buoyant, with revenues forecasted around $5.3 billion. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra's optimistic outlook underscores the company's confidence in navigating the burgeoning AI landscape, poised for sustained growth and market expansion.
Driving Innovation, Redefining Possibilities:
Micron's ( NASDAQ:MU ) innovative strides not only amplify AI performance but also address critical concerns such as power consumption, aligning with the industry's sustainability agenda. By enhancing memory bandwidth and capacity, Micron ( NASDAQ:MU ) empowers AI developers to unlock new frontiers of innovation, transcending conventional boundaries. As the International Energy Agency highlights the exponential growth of data centers, Micron's technological breakthroughs emerge as a catalyst, fueling the AI revolution and shaping the digital landscape of tomorrow.
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The AI Crypto Boom: Is This the Beginning of a New Era?2023 has witnessed a significant surge in AI-related cryptocurrencies . This boom can be partly attributed to the explosive growth of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock, a leader in the graphics processing unit (GPU) industry, which are used to train AI models.
Factors Driving the Growth
NVDA's Rise: NVDA's price has been on a tear, forming a bullish manipulative pattern. This bullish trend has inspired investors to have similar expectations for AI-related coins.
AMD's Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution Pattern: AMD is not a competitor of NVDA in this context, but rather an example of a successful "accumulation - manipulation - breakout" pattern.
This pattern is characterized by a period of accumulation, where investors slowly buy up a coin, followed by a period of manipulation, where the price is artificially inflated, and finally a breakout, where the price rises sharply due to increased demand.
Effect on Other Coins:
The bullish trend in NVDA and the successful breakout of AMD's accumulation-manipulation-breakout pattern have led to a surge in AI-related coins such as RNDR, THETA, NEAR, and FET.
A Look at Promising Coins:
RNDR: Render Network utilizes a decentralized network for 3D graphics and video rendering. The rise of the metaverse could potentially drive demand for RNDR's services.
THETA: Theta Labs aims to revolutionize video streaming by providing a decentralized content delivery network. The growth of streaming content could make THETA an attractive investment.
NEAR: NEAR Protocol is a smart contract platform focused on scalability and speed. The growth of decentralized applications (dApps) could make NEAR a valuable choice.
FET: Fetch.ai is developing a decentralized network for exchanging data and machine learning models. The growth of AI could increase demand for FET's services.
Important Considerations:
The cryptocurrency market is volatile and unpredictable. It is crucial to conduct your own research before investing in any coin.
This article is not financial advice. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Conclusion
AI-related cryptocurrencies are experiencing impressive growth. While it is impossible to say for certain whether this is the beginning of a new era, the possibilities of AI in the crypto space are worth considering. However, it is important to conduct thorough research and understand the associated risks before investing.
SMCI - builds the data centers for AI and is hotter than hotSuper Microcomputer is on hard run up trend- at its all-time high, this stock is demonstrating
a high tight bull flag pattern. In a massive move SCMI is up 180% YTD five months so on pace for
400% annualized. Most experts expect more of the same. It is currently resting in consolidation
( the tight channel of the pattern) The zero-lag MACD shows the lines about to cross over the
histogram. I will watch this stock for either a bullish continuation or a pullback. Its
fundamentals are outstanding and its collaboration with NVDA will carry it far. I will wait
for a great entry and take a big bite. This stock's P/E makes it an incredible bargain.
NVDA - The Trend Is Your FriendPretty incredible chart. This price action will be talked about for years. Where will it end? How will it end? These are not questions I know how to answer. The great thing is I don't have to know the answers to these questions to profit MAJORLY from the price action. Everything I need to know is reflected in the price action.
The trend is your friend (until the end). #NVDA
NVIDIA technical analysisAnalyzing NVIDIA we can see a complex market picture. The large Elliott waves (orange) indicate five primary price movements, with three being impulsive waves upward (1, 3, 5) and two corrective waves (2, 4). The smaller Elliott waves (white) represent sub-waves within the larger upward trend of wave (5).
Potential support at a yellow channel, which is aligned with previous troughs and peaks, suggesting it's a significant level for future price action. The correction that may occur is suggested by the Fibonacci levels drawn on the last impulse of wave (5). The 0.5 Fibonacci level, often acting as a significant retracement level, points to a potential support area around $600.76, while the 0.618 Fibonacci level indicates a price around $554.92.
Cumulative volume showing increased activity during rises and falls, might indicate the strength or weakness of the price movement. Increased volume during the last upward impulse may suggest solid buying interest at these price levels.
With these observations in mind, it appears that if a correction occurs, we could look for support along the yellow channel and the indicated Fibonacci levels. Considering the market dynamics and historical price behaviors, these areas might offer potential reversal points for further price movements.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 710usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-23,
for a premium of approximately $48.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
A top in $NVDA? I know it is very brave of me to call a top in NASDAQ:NVDA here with all is going on in AI right now. But I can only analyse what the market is telling me right now.
And the market is telling me that a top might be in place. And here are 5 reasons why :
1. Fibonacci golden ratio on a weekly timeframe we are almost there. We see how the golden ratio it's splitting the 5 waves impulse up.
Even in Wave 5 we have a Fibonacci Golden ratio. This time is 0.618/0.382. They all point out to the same zone.
2. Bearish divergence between the price and MACD- Histogram and MACD lines
3.Kangaroo tail
The last bar is a sign of worry for the bulls.
4. Outside upper channel line
5. Quite a gap to the value zone. Which on a daily is between $675-$716.
and as bonus reason Steve Weiss just bought NASDAQ:NVDA
Of course there are a few reasons for the bulls as well. and NASDAQ:NVDA could go to the Moon.
What do you think. Bull or bear here?
Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purpose and does not serve as financial advice.
Nvidia Bounce TrackWhile the main scenario for this stock implies a further advancement in price considering the importance of its product(s) in AI development and deployment, this project attempts to anticipate or "catch", a significant reversal signal, preferably with a candlestick shadow at one of the shapes (similar to the examples highlighted in past price action). 2 other relevant occurrences might pop somewhere else in the snapshot, without shadows, but with other candlestick patterns.
A reversal of a wave (:no matter how big or small), provides a strategic entry relative to the context of the market or the context of future potential scenarios, having a tight exit strategy (above the high or in this case below the low of the signal candle), while being open to higher rewards relative to risk.
This Simulation of potential future scenarios, resulting in a hybrid design that takes into account at least 10 such main scenarios, has been carefully selected, processed, and applied, with alien nen technology and mechanisms, brought to you from the depths of a Black Hole, where time and space collapse into a wonder of oneness and transcendence, called Singularity.
NVIDIA $NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $661 - $810
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $609 - 661
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): Not Shown
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
Not much to say, earnings and momentum speak for themselves, just thought I'd quickly throw up what I have drawn as support areas for bulls and a profit target. The target shown is roughly a +20% gain from the start of the bullish zone where my entry is it. No short zone is drawn as I do not believe something so strongly bullish should be considered for a short at this time.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
S&P 500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 23/02/2024BUY ABOVE - 5094
SL - 5079
TARGETS - 5108,5120,5135
SELL BELOW - 5079
SL - 5094
TARGETS - 5067,5057,5047
NO TRADE ZONE - 5079 to 5094
Previous Day High - 5094
Previous Day Low - 5039
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
NVIDIA Shares - Quarterly Report and Potential Pullback to $400The drop in Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) shares by 21.09% from February 20 to February 21, 2024, following the company's reduction of its annual forecast, could mark the end of the growth phase for the technology sector.
NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:PANW #NVDA #Nvidia #Stock #StockMarket #Shares
Both stocks have met all their targets and are likely to have concluded their growth phase. Among the big six that have been propelling the entire S&P 500 (Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META)), only NVIDIA has significantly surpassed its 2021 highs.
Indeed, the share dynamics of the graphics equipment manufacturer are responsible for the historical highs being updated by stock indexes. The peak of wave v perfectly aligned with the ascending channels of two fifth waves. This suggests the start of a very deep downward movement.
NVIDIA shares could drop to around $400.
The Nvidia effect; US equity indices break out to new highs The Nvidia effect has ripped through global equity markets and given fresh wind to markets that were looking ominously poised for a 3-5% drawdown. New highs have been seen in EU Stoxx, GER40, JPN225, and the US large-cap equity bourses; the US30, US500 and NAS100.
What levels do the bulls target now?
Well either, you’re looking at fibo extension/projections, psychologically important round numbers, or you hold until price action offers an exit signal, or your trailing stop is triggered.
Our client flow is progressively skewed short index positions at current levels (85% of open positions on US30 are held short, 74% short on the NAS100), with many countering for a reversion move, although this is an aggregation of different strategies and timeframes.
Nvidia hits the sweet spot
Nvidia has dominated the narrative and rightfully so – the flow-on effects into the AI/semi’s scene has been truly emphatic. I won’t go over Nvidia’s numbers at a granular level, but clearly, they hit the absolute sweet spot – beating on Q424 actuals by some margin across the board, but also on their guidance for Q125 numbers.
While not meeting some very lofty market expectations was a small risk, there was perhaps a greater fear that the guidance would be too hot, subsequently creating an incredibly high bar to beat in the future. That wasn’t the case, and one could say the outcome was a ‘goldilocks’ scenario.
It’s hard to go past the commentary on their outlook and future operating environment, as this has not just lifted Nvidia but the whole scene. Saying that demand will continue to exceed supply all year was a massive bullish trigger. Detailing that supply constraints should improve over the year was also well received, with supply chains asked to increase capacity by 30% for CYQ1. Sales to China have also dropped to mid-single-digit percentages despite such explosive revenue growth, which was a factor and could be a big kicker further into the future.
Nvidia shares not only closed +16.5%, far higher than the -/+11% implied in options pricing but adding $276b in market cap was absolutely staggering. The fact price closed right on its session highs must enthuse the bulls and for tape readers, it tells a lot about the mindset of the collective – dips will likely be shallow, and traders will chase the upside.
87.75m shares traded hands – the most since November 2023 - and in the options market, we saw 1.51m calls bought vs the 20-day average of 913k. Valuations are obviously lofty, but they matter little for these high-growth plays, which are essentially out-and-out momentum vehicles.
Also, consider that Nvidia holds its highly anticipated GTC conference on 18 March – where they are likely to update the market on new products and innovations – so pullbacks in the stock should be shallow, and we could see buyers push price higher into that event.
The spill over into names like Super Micro Computers (+32.9%), AMD (+10.7%), Marvell (+6.6%) and Broadcom (+6.3%) is clear. The Philadelphia Semi ETF (SOX) also gets some focus as price breaks to new ATHs. Offshore we saw plays such as Infineon, ARM Holdings, Tokyo Election, Taiwan Semi and Korean Semi names all working well and finding a solid bid.
The biggest one-day move since early February
On a broad index basis, the NAS100 saw its biggest one-day move since Feb 2023 (a 3% move was a 3.3 Z-score move). That said, for such a big percentage change in the index volumes were only 7% above the 30-day average, although this was more than offset by good breadth with 82% of stocks higher (72% in the US500).
NAS100 implied volatility has fallen a touch with the NAS100 VIX index dropping 1.21 vols to 18.4% with the S&P500 VIX -0.80 vols to 14.5%, with traders rolling out of downside hedges. Hedges cost money when the market is ripping and subtract from performance.
So global high-quality growth equity has found its mojo courtesy of just one stock, and what they have said about the outlook, which of course means so much not just for the A.I adopters but the enablers.
We can once again talk about concentration risk in equity, but we can use the 2023 case study and see that reduced participation in the rally isn’t the red flag for contrarian positions it perhaps once was.
While CFD traders will take timeframes down and trade intraday flows – long and short – the primary big-picture trend remains higher, so for those who hold for longer than a day, we need to assess the big risk that can cause a 5%+ drawdown.
What can cause a reversal?
That risk is inflation, and a resurgence of concerns that we move into a far higher-for-longer regime, with rate cuts essentially priced out for 2024. It is my view that equity can hold in and even push higher if expected rate cuts are priced out for 2024, as long the cause is solid growth dynamics. But if the primary reasoning for reduced rate cut expectation is inflation, which causes long-end bond yields to rise (both nominal and real), and volatility in interest rates and US Treasury’s lifts then equity risk premium will rise, and the bears will likely get their 5-10% pullback.
For now, the Nvidia show is real, and a feel-good factor runs through the whole sector – The NAS100 breaks 18k, the US500 eyes 5100 and the US30 looks up at 40k.
