TLSA Catalyst Ranking and Market Update: June 2025Here's an updated/revised outlook for TSLA including all the primary
catalyst ranking and analyst ratings and overview of latest developments
🔋 1. EV Demand Growth
Strength: 9/10 → 9/10
Global electric vehicle adoption remains the dominant pillar. Tesla faces softer comp in Europe (–40.5% drop in May) wsj.com, but overall trend remains firmly upward. 🌍
🚗 2. Affordable Entry Level Model
Strength: 8.5/10 → 8.5/10
Tesla still on track to launch a < $25K EV in first half of 2025. Any delays or execution issues could pressure sentiment.
⚡ 3. Battery Cost & Margin Improvement
Strength: 8/10 → 8/10
Margins saw slight relief Q1, driven by cost cuts f, but macro headwinds persist.
🤖 4. Autonomy & Robotaxi Rollout
Strength: 7.5/10 → 8.5/10
Robotaxi debuted in Austin in June, sparking a ~10% one-day stock surge. Benchmark raised its target to $475/buy on the rollout—strong tailwind.
🚩 5. Competition
Strength: 7/10 → 6.5/10
Rivals like Xiaomi’s new YU7 are gaining ground. Tesla must maintain differentiation.
📉 6. Trade Policies & Tariffs
Strength: 6.5/10 → 6.5/10
Still relevant due to Tesla’s global footprint, though less front-page than before.
💰 7. Incentives & Subsidies
Strength: 6/10 → 6/10
U.S. IRA tax credit policies remain supportive; evolving eligibility remains a swing factor.
🛢️ 8. Commodity Costs
Strength: 5.5/10 → 5.5/10
Raw-material swings affect margins. Inventory hedges help but not wholly mitigate.
📈 9. Fed & Interest Rates
Strength: 5/10 → 5/10
A higher-rate environment still limits valuation multiples for growth-tier companies.
🎭 10. Musk Profile & Governance
Strength: 4/10 → 5/10
Analysts (e.g., Bradley Tusk) warn of being “massively overvalued” tied to Musk’s persona. Musk’s renewed focus on Tesla vs. other ventures (DOGE, SpaceX) will be watched.
________________________________________
🚀 Refreshed Catalyst Rankings
Rank Driver Score
1 EV demand growth 9
2 Affordable model 8.5
3 Battery costs/margins 8
4 Autonomy/robotaxi execution 8.5
5 Competition 6.5
6 Trade & tariffs 6.5
7 Regulatory incentives 6
8 Commodities 5.5
9 Fed Rates 5
10 Musk reputation/governance 5
________________________________________
📊 Latest Analyst Ratings & Targets
• Benchmark / Mickey Legg: Buy, target $475 (from $350) — cites robotaxi safety-first rollout, automation upside
• Wedbush / Dan Ives: Outperform, target $500 — labels TSLA as an “embodied AI compounder”
• Morgan Stanley / Adam Jonas: Buy, target $410 — bullish on AI/self driving positioning
• Cantor Fitzgerald / Andres Sheppard: Overweight, target $355 — optimism rooted in robotaxi and FSD rollout
• UBS / multiple: Sell, target $215–225 — skeptical on demand and valuations
Consensus snapshot (FactSet):
• Mean price target ≈ $311–$312
• Mean rating between Hold–Buy (~2.7/5)
________________________________________
🗞️ Recent Headlines
• “Tesla completes first fully autonomous Model Y delivery ahead of schedule”
• “Tesla robotaxis launch in Austin” boosting momentum
• “EU Tesla sales slump” May registrations down 40.5%
• “Tesla fires longtime insider as Europe slump deepens”
________________________________________
🔍 Summary Outlook
Tesla shares are navigating a volatile interplay of strong tech promise and unfolding execution risks:
• Overweight view (Legg, Ives): Robotaxi rollout and AI thrust fuel upside. Automation transition seen as transformative.
• Bullish base (Jonas, Sheppard): AI, FSD rollout, affordable model support core thesis.
• Skeptical view (UBS, Tusk): Slumping deliveries in Europe/China, heavy valuation, Musk's external focus seen as emotional dampener.
Upcoming triggers to watch:
1. Q2 delivery and production results (mid July).
2. Robotaxi rollout execution/regulatory clearance.
3. Margin trajectory as costs evolve.
4. FSD reliability and expansion in new markets.
________________________________________
✅ What This Means for You
• Bull case: Robotaxi + AI momentum may drive TSLA back toward targets in the $475–500 range.
• Bear case: Weak deliveries, macro and competition pressures could cap shares or trigger pullback toward prior support ($330–350).
• Neutral: Watch near-term delivery and autonomy news to shape next move.
NVDA
Buying Reploy AI (RAI) Today Is Like Buying Bitcoin at $345Buying Reploy AI (RAI) Today Is Like Buying Bitcoin at $345—Or Even $3.45
Imagine going back in time to 2016 and buying Bitcoin at $345. Most people didn’t believe in it. They thought it was too risky, too early, or just plain irrelevant. Today, Bitcoin is trading in the six figures. The opportunity was historic.
Now, there’s another chance brewing—and it’s quietly sitting in front of us.
That opportunity is Reploy AI ($RAI).
🚀 What is Reploy AI?
Reploy AI is a micro-cap artificial intelligence (AI) project focused on decentralizing the compute layer that powers AI training and inference. It’s building a distributed AI network that connects GPU resources with developers and businesses in need of scalable AI infrastructure. Think of it as the decentralized AWS + OpenAI — built from the ground up for speed, accessibility, and equity.
It’s early. But the fundamentals, vision, and market positioning are explosive.
💰 Let’s Talk Numbers: The Bitcoin Comparison
Right now, Reploy AI ($RAI) trades at a tiny market cap—roughly $3 million at the time of writing.
If $RAI hits a $1 billion market cap, that’s a 31,000% return.
Yes, 31,000% — not a typo. That’s a 310x gain.
That would be like buying Bitcoin at $345, before it ran to over $100,000.
If $RAI grows into a $10 billion AI ecosystem, it would be like snagging Bitcoin at just $3.45.
Let that sink in.
🌐 Why This Could Actually Happen
AI Is the Next Internet
The world is undergoing an AI revolution. But centralized giants (like OpenAI and Google) dominate access. Reploy offers a decentralized, censorship-resistant alternative — and the market desperately needs it.
Micro Cap = Maximum Asymmetry
Unlike hyped-up billion-dollar AI tokens, Reploy is still undiscovered. Small caps like this can explode with just one partnership, listing, or viral catalyst.
Strong Tokenomics & Ecosystem Design
RAI has a deflationary supply structure, utility-driven demand, and real infrastructure use cases tied to decentralized compute, developer tooling, and enterprise deployment.
It’s Not Just Hype. It’s Being Built.
Reploy isn’t vaporware. The team is shipping code. The platform is live. And the network of compute contributors is growing.
⚠️ Of Course, This Is Risky
Yes, it’s still early. Yes, micro-cap tokens carry real risk. But so did Bitcoin when it was $345. So did Ethereum when it was $7.
The difference is this: most people only see opportunity when it’s already gone.
This isn’t financial advice. But if you’ve ever wished for a second shot at catching a generational trend early—this might be it.
🧠 Final Thought
In crypto, the biggest returns come from spotting the future before it’s obvious.
Buying $RAI at today’s price could be your version of buying CRYPTOCAP:BTC at $345—or even $3.45. The only question is: will you see it in time?
📈 DYOR. Stay sharp. Think long-term. And don’t miss what might be the next breakout in AI + crypto.
June 27th, 2025 - Morning BriefFriday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline.
Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SP:SPX and CME_MINI:NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NASDAQ:NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NYSE:NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure.
But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching.
Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino.
Here’s where things stand:
- OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns)
- BLACKBULL:WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos)
- BINANCE:BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream)
- CME_MINI:ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record
Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex.
Been building something for US swing traders — if you’re one, I’d really appreciate your feedback. Free to test, link in Bio
06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +731.25
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/3 success**
— 9:38 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
today was another interesting day, i am noticing that when market structure changes 2x in the same direction, it is usally pretty effective and scammy at the same time
News
*NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA SHARES HIT A NEW HIGH TO RECLAIM WORLD'S LARGEST STOCK TITLE - market is being carried by the momentum of mag 7
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6175 = Bullish, Under 6155= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
My buy view for NVDAMy buy view for NVDA.
Nvidia has made a significant push up after the meltdown following the new US tariff news.
The push-up is likely cooling off for this baby.
If the current consolidation continues to be sustained by the support zone (TL) in this zone, we are likely to see NVDA rally to $149 and $152 as TP1 and TP2, respectively.
My SL will be around $128.9 zone for both.
RR of 1:4 and 1:4.8
Trade with care
Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Soars to Record HighNvidia (NVDA) Share Price Soars to Record High
Yesterday, Nvidia’s (NVDA) share price surged by over 4%, with the following key developments:
→ It broke through the psychological $150 per share level;
→ It reached a new all-time high;
→ It also contributed to the Nasdaq 100 index hitting a record peak, as we reported earlier this morning.
As a result, Nvidia has reclaimed its status as the world’s most valuable company. Demand for its shares is being fuelled by the CEO’s optimism.
“We have many growth opportunities across our company, with AI and robotics the two largest, representing a multitrillion-dollar growth opportunity,” said Jensen Huang at Nvidia’s annual investor conference.
Technical Analysis of the NVDA Chart
The last three candlesticks reflect strong demand, as:
→ There are bullish gaps between the candles;
→ Lower wicks are either absent or minimal;
→ Candles are closing near their highs with progressively widening spreads.
This suggests strong momentum as the price confidently breaks through the key $150 resistance level. It is reasonable to assume that the current imbalance in favour of buyers around the $146–150 area (highlighted in purple) may form a support zone in the event of a pullback — for instance, within the existing upward channel (shown in blue).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nvidia & Nasdaq History - What you need to know!Record-high share price: NVDA hit a new all-time high as U.S. stock markets rallied and Wall Street analysts forecast continued upside
Nvidia is pushing towards the first ever $4 Trillion market cap.
Today it surpassed MSFT as the largest company in the world closing up over 4% on the session.
Micron earnings are adding extra fuel to the fire for semi conductors.
Short term picture for semis - they're very extended and need some consolidation.
Micron earnings: Revenue: $8.05 billion, up ~38% YoY, beating the ~$7.89 billion consensus
Data‑center revenue: Tripled YoY, powered by surging demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM)
HBM sales: Exceeded $1 billion, growing over 50% sequentially
Strong margin and revenue beat; robust cash flow (~$857 million free cash flow) with a solid balance sheet ($9.6 billion in liquidity)
Nvidia - 100% new all time highs!Nvidia - NASDAQ:NVDA - is just too bullish now:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Honestly it was not unexpected that Nvidia is now the most valuable company in the world. The chart is just so strong and perfectly following structure; it seems to be just a matter of days until Nvidia will create a new all time high. If this happens, a breakout rally will follow.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
NVIDIA Corporation More Bullish Than BearishIt has been a while since we looked at Nvidia and here we have a mixed and tricky chart. I will try to make an accurate prediction nonetheless, watch!
It is tricky because the bullish move stalled and found resistance. The candles started to curve and there is little growth. Nothing to worry though. There is no retrace and the action is happening above 0.786 Fib. extension. This means that the action around resistance is likely to result in additional growth. Resistance is being weakened the more it is challenged.
If the bears were going to push prices lower they had their chance but nothing. If they tried, they failed and this is all bullish.
I predict NVDA will continue growing long-term. This goes in accordance with the analyzes I made back in early April of this year. We can expect a new all-time high in the latter part of 2025.
Summary
To me, the bullish bias is now confirmed. A continuation should happen in the coming days or weeks. Growth is expected long long-term.
Namaste.
$NVDA 6/27 exp week; $150 calls. Quick ChartHello. Market is moving up off the “news” of “ceasefire” from Trump. Take what is given I suppose. NASDAQ:NVDA could see a beautiful upside towards the psych level of $150 in just one session (Tuesday, 6/24) which is just a “small” move of 3%. Could break out of its rising wedge. This name has been lackluster as of late (kinda sorta). $150 calls will be entered at open (6/24) and my first target will be $148.98. There are multiple rejections at these levels. Good luck!
WSL
$NVDA has topped, new lows incomingNVDA has now topped, you can see that we've just formed another high time frame lower high and the rejection up here has the potential to create a strong bearish move.
I think it's very likely that the bearish move will take us all the way down to the bottom support before it's completed.
The bounce from the bottom went higher than I initially thought it would (which is why I'm creating a new chart), but price can't escape gravity and the same outcome is inevitable.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks.
$AVGO above its previous ATH and holding on. 400 $ reachable. The poster child of the AI rally has been NASDAQ:NVDA and $AVGO. Here we have analysed both the stocks multiple times fundamentally and technically. But the lesser known NASDAQ:AVGO has performed better than the NASDAQ:NVDA since the April lows. NASDAQ:AVGO is still above its previous ATH and closed above yesterday which was 242 $ in Jan 2025. NASDAQ:NVDA is still below its Jan 2025 highs of 152 $.
The Semis index NASDAQ:SMH is also 6.3% below its ATH of 262 $. So not many stocks in this index have a more bullish chart than $AVGO. My assessment is that NASDAQ:AVGO will continue its dominant outperformance in the NASDAQ:SMH sector in comparison to others like $NVDA.
Going back to technical and plotting the Fib Extension levels form the last bull run before Aug 2024 we can see that the next possible near-term target is 275 $, a 10% upside form here and in the medium term the target is 400 $.
Verdict : Long NASDAQ:AVGO over NASDAQ:SMH and $NVDA. First Target 275 $ then we go to 400 $.
NVIDIA – Best Buy of the Decade (2 Years from now) 🚀💻 NVIDIA – Best Buy of the Decade (2 Years from now) 🔥🧠
Hey everyone! Back in 2021, I called NVIDIA the best buy of the decade, and in 2023, we followed up as NVDA rocketed to my target of $143. Now in 2025, it’s time for Part 3 — and the case for NVDA being a generational play just got even stronger. 💪
✅ On April 4th, I re-entered around $96.85, right at my alert level. The setup? A rounded bottom reversal pattern forming with 4 strong bullish divergences on key indicators (Stoch, CCI, MOM, MFI). Target levels ahead:
📍 $143
📍 $182
📍 $227
📉 Yes, Nvidia took a 6% hit after announcing a $5.5B impact from U.S. export restrictions on its H20 chip to China — a reminder that macro & geopolitical factors still matter. But…
💡 The company just launched DGX Spark and DGX Station, bringing AI supercomputing to the desktop — powered by Grace Blackwell architecture. That’s next-level innovation, not just for enterprises, but for developers, students, and researchers alike. A true desktop AI revolution.
🇺🇸 And most importantly: NVIDIA will now manufacture AI supercomputers on U.S. soil — in Arizona and Texas — aiming to produce $500 billion worth over the next four years. This initiative is a bold move toward supply chain resilience, economic growth, and cementing NVIDIA’s leadership in the AI arms race.
⚠️ If we lose the $96 level, I’ll re-evaluate. But for now? The technical and fundamentals still say: Best Buy of the Decade (2 Years from now we will revisit this chart).
💬 What’s your outlook? Are you buying the dip or waiting on clarity?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
NVIDIA (NVDA) – Ending Diagonal at the Top? 126 Next?NVDA is currently trading inside a potential ending diagonal, often signaling a reversal or strong correction. With multiple Breaks of Structure (BoS) and a visible Fair Value Gap (FVG) left behind, this setup is aligning with Smart Money Concepts.
📉 Bearish Rejection Expected?
Price might sweep liquidity and revisit the 126–129 demand zone, where strong unmitigated orders sit. If this zone holds, a bullish continuation toward 152+ is likely.
🔍 Key Highlights:
⚠️ Ending Diagonal pattern near local top
📊 Multiple BoS confirming internal structure shifts
📉 Unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) near 129
🟩 Strong demand zones at 129–126 and 108
🔄 Potential liquidity sweep before reversal
🧠 Smart money footprint visible
📅 Watch for price reaction around 129.8–126.1.
📈 Breakout above 145 with strength may invalidate the drop.
SPY & MegaCap strengthSPY saw a very strong gap up, negating most of the selling from last week.
despite rising tensions in the middle east - investors have shrugged off volatility and bought the initial dip.
This may be proving that "war" is good for stocks.
we observed a very close correlation between the indices and oil today.
As oil reversed higher - markets saw a bit of weakness. As oil fell markets rallied.
TSLA trying to break a 4 hour bullish pattern
META new Smart Glasses release causing a surge.
MSFT new all time high tap
NVDA firm with ripping semiconductors
GOOGL looking strong for continuation
AMZN moving nicely off support
AAPL lagging the mega's but positive
NVDA Swing Trade – Overbought Reversal Setup (June 12, 2025)📉 NVDA Swing Trade – Overbought Reversal Setup (June 12, 2025)
Ticker: NASDAQ:NVDA | Bias: 🔻 Moderately Bearish
Strategy: Short-Term Swing | Timeframe: ~2 weeks
Confidence: 75% | Entry Timing: Market Open
Expiry: June 27, 2025
🔍 Market & Technical Snapshot
• Price: ~$144.67
• Trend: Weekly and M15 uptrend still intact
• RSI (Daily): ~70.63 → Overbought
• MACD: Bearish crossover on Daily
• Options Data:
– Heavy put OI at $140 (14,803 contracts)
– Max pain at $135 → potential pull lower
– High call OI at $145–$150 caps upside
🧠 AI Model Breakdown
🔼 Grok/xAI (Bullish Swing):
• Calls out strong technicals, 5-min momentum
• Suggests $155C for upside play
🔽 DeepSeek (Bearish Swing – Preferred):
• Overbought daily RSI + bearish MACD
• Strong put volume + options market pressure
• Targets pullback to $138–$140 → PUT @ $140
✅ Recommended Trade Setup
🎯 Direction: PUT
📍 Strike: $140
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-27
💵 Entry Price: $2.09
🎯 Profit Target: $3.10 (+48%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $1.25 (–40%)
📈 Confidence: 75%
📏 Size: 1 contract
⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open
⚠️ Risk Considerations
• Weekly chart still bullish → risk of trend continuation
• Low VIX (17.26) = slower option premium movement
• Positive news surprise could cause upside gap
• Use tight risk controls and monitor intraday structure
💭 NASDAQ:NVDA : Extended or just gearing up for another breakout?
📉 Drop your play below — Put buyers vs. breakout chasers 👇
$SMCI "Buy The Dip" Value AreaSMCI (Super Micro Computer) has weathered the storm from all the negative press and I believe it is poised to go on a big run. This $26-$47 area is the BEST value you are going to get on it. This is probably the last discount before takeoff. We may not see this level again. As NVDA continues to fly, so will SMCI. Always do your own DD.
Nvidia - The breakout will eventually follow!Nvidia - NASDAQ:NVDA - will break out soon:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Over the course of the past couple of days, we saw a quite strong rally of +50% on Nvidia. Considering the market cap of this company, such a move is quite impressive. Following this overall very strong bullish momentum, an all time high breakout is quite likely to happen soon.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)