NVDA Great opportunity on the next pull-back of the Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months with the price currently on its middle, consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This price struggle to pick up a rebound, resembles the previous bearish leg of the Channel Up, which after a series of Lower Highs, got rejected to form a new bottom (Higher Lows. The 1D MA50 sideways action as halfway through.
We can see a similar consolidation between the 1D RSI structures of the two fractals. The 1D MACD will give a bullish confirmation when it forms a Bullish Cross, but it may a little after the bottom is in, which means you may catch the uptrend on a slightly later stage. In any case it will give a lower risk factor (technically confirmed signal).
We will wait for the price to approach the bottom of the Channel Up, assuming of course it doesn't break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and target $515.00.
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NVDA
Secured +10% on ARM, kept under 1/2 position. ⚠️ LOW FLOATERDrop a like and follow to show your support! Thanks.
For bulls and bears alike, remember this is a LOW FLOAT. If you are shorting this stock when shares are available to borrow, remember it has a 9.3% float, is the most anticipated IPO in a while, and has clients like NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NYSE:TSM and the list goes on.
That being said, if I see +10% in 10 minutes, I must sell at least 1/2 my position. Got in @ 55.XX, out at 61.XX right when I saw the 9% and 10% print.
If it goes to 100, 200, 300, I really wouldn't care because I followed my rules.
Good luck trading. Remember to create a plan and follow it. That's the only way you'll be a consistent trader.
When there's not enough data, you can use a smaller time frame for reference.
Example:
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ARM: Be careful chasing hot IPOs.NASDAQ:ARM see a lot of FOMO here..
Remember:
Don't market buy. They will fill your order as high as possible.
Don't FOMO buy. Don't force a trade.
SoftBank is a dumper. They tried dumping ARM in 2020 for a +25% gain to $NVDA. Let that sink in.
Also, don't short it. You might get roasted.
SoftBank bought 25% stake at 64B valuation recently. That means that should serve as a decent floor. The other floor is 40B which NASDAQ:NVDA would scoop up I imagine.
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Reversal Pattern Forming on the Chart NVDA Stock Analysis: Reversal Pattern Forming on the Chart
NVDA stock has been a stock market leader throughout 2023 amid the AI boom. NVDA's share price rose by more than 200%, allowing NVidia's capitalization to exceed USD 1 trillion.
However, a pattern is forming on the chart, warning that NVDA's share price may decline. This is a diamond pattern A-B-C-D (determining the position of point D still takes time), which is formed from intersecting parallel lines of support and resistance. They are shown on the chart using ascending and descending channels.
Even though this instance of the pattern is far from the standard, it deserves attention.
Arguments confirming that the pattern can work:
→ in September, NVDA stock performed weaker than the S&P 500 index;
→ at the top of the diamond, there were high trading volumes, according to the NASDAQ exchange. The current price is below the levels at which high-volume transactions were recorded at the end of August. This can be interpreted as the fact that large market participants are taking profits (and/or even taking a short position);
→ the media is disseminating information that NVDA shares were sold by Berkshire (managed by Buffett) and the company's president Jen Huang herself — according to Yahoo Finance, on September 11, she sold about 30k shares.
Could the AI boom be winding down? According to investor Rob Arnott, Nvidia stock is a bubble. And if it bursts, it could trigger a collapse of the entire stock market.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDIA: It's now or never for the Channel Up to continue upwards.NVDIA is trading at the bottom of the eleven month Channel Up, around the 1D MA50 but on a neutral1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.399, MACD = -2.580, ADX = 27.665). As long as the price trades inside the Channel Up, it makes the current level a low risk buy entry. The 1D CCI suggests that the price might be on a bottom like February 23rd, after which it rose by 35.47%.
Consequently our target is of that price range but still contained under the HH trendline (TP = 600.00). If the 1D candle closes under the Channel Up, we will turn bearish and target the 1D MA200 (TP = 330.00)>
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NVDA has topped. Sell it now.2023 has been an incredibly strong year for stocks. The Nasdaq rallied 38% in the first six months for one of the best starts to a year in history.
This rally has been primarily led by an AI/tech theme that has been responsible for the bulk of these gains. That part of the rally is likely over, however… at least for now.
Every bull market has a “theme” with leading stocks that set the pace. In the late 90s that was the dot-com bubble. In the 2009-2020 bull market that was big tech like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Google (hence the FAANG stocks moniker). The 2020-2021 bull market was led by “work-from-home” stocks like Zoom, Teladoc and Peloton.
The 2023 bull market has been led by artificial intelligece. The leading stocks have been Meta, Microsoft, Dynatrace, MongoDB, Palantir, AMD, and the biggest leader of them all, Nvidia.
Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher.
Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs.
Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected.
Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion.
They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news.
But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before.
This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year.
In a bear market, like we had in 2022, what you want to see is the market going UP on BAD news. This is the sign that the low is in, and buyers are coming back in.
We saw this on October 13, 2022. After a government inflation report revealed the worst numbers yet – far worse than expectations – the market gapped down and opened a full 3% lower than it was the day before. However, stocks immediately began to rally, and the index surged 5% that day. This was the signal that the low was in.
On the other hand, in a bull market, we want to watch for times when the market goes DOWN on GOOD news. This often signals a top. And I believe we saw that on Thursday.
Nvidia was the only stock that could have reversed this pullback. The earnings report was better than even the most optimistic investor had hoped. This should have absolutely put an end to the pullback and caused the market to rally higher. Instead, we saw the opposite.
So, what does this mean?
First of all, and let me be clear on this, I am NOT saying the market is about to crash. I simply believe the “easy money” stage is over.
I expect to see fairly choppy conditions for the next few weeks or months, and investors can no longer rely on the bull market to push everything higher.
I believe tech stocks have seen their highs for 2023. Those with large open gains in stocks like Meta, Amazon, Apple, Google, Nvidia and the like may consider selling to lock in those gains here.
There will still be stocks that go up, some of them by substantial amounts. But I believe this is now a more selective stock picker’s market.
Personally, I sold the index funds in my long-term account and moved to cash ( I also went short the Nasdaq via QID). As of yesterday, those index funds funds were up 37% year-to-date. That is a phenomenal year, and I do not want to risk giving those gains back.
To me, this is a low-risk decision. The worst-case scenario is that I am wrong or something material changes that propels stocks higher.
If this happens, and the Nasdaq makes new highs this year, I will simply buy those funds back. All I will have missed is a 6% move.
Lower High on NVDA, is the "top" in place...temporarily?Went short @ market open this morning. I feel that the top might be in on NVDA and the IV is worth trying a Call Credit spread. The ticker did not make a new high, and will most likely start a consolidation phase before the next leg higher ( or lower).
I went with the 525/530 spread OCT 20 banking $1.50 in credit. Looking to close between 20-50% profit with a max loss of 50%. The trade is around a 70 delta.