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S&P Pull BackNew update. It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on: RSI overbought on 1W MACD Crossed on 1W Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN. Fuel prices are back near record highs Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s) With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real. Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09). Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing. #SPX CBOE:SPX
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
3
Nvidia Maintains Lead in AI MarketNvidia's strategy of expanding into cloud services aims to reinforce its market position. The company's financial health is robust, with profit margins nearing 25%, significantly outpacing AMD's 4%. This stark contrast in profitability underlines why Nvidia may continue to be a more attractive investment option compared to AMD. Despite projections hinting at AMD's faster growth in 2024, Nvidia is expected to hold onto its leadership position. Tech giants and investors are closely watching these developments. who holds positions in both AMD and Nvidia as well as other tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), considers his investment in AMD as a strategic hedge against his larger stake in Nvidia. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) has opted not to challenge Nvidia's GPU capabilities for AI tasks, further cementing Nvidia's dominance in the market. As the AI revolution demands more processing power, both companies are likely to remain critical players. However, for now, Nvidia's combined hardware-software offerings give it an edge reminiscent of Intel’s past market dominance but with the added leverage of being a crucial software provider akin to Microsoft.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DEXWireNews
2
NVIDIA's Peak Signals A Tactical Analysis for Long-Short Investors Eyeing Reversal Signals in NVIDIA's Market Dominance The dance of market dominance is nearing a pivotal climax, with NVIDIA's relative outperformance approaching historical support levels. This juncture could mark a strategic inflection for hedge fund investors specializing in long-short strategies, poised to capture value in Tesla, Ethereum, and Bitcoin, while prudently shorting NVIDIA. The critical question, laced with complexity, is timing—when to initiate the hedge as market ratios flirt with reversal amid surging volatility. NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:TSLA The NVIDIA Indicator: A Prelude to Reversal NVIDIA's chart articulates a tale of triumph, but the crescendo of its performance hints at an impending decrescendo. The ratios—TSLA/NVIDIA, ETHUSD/NVIDIA, and BTCUSD/NVIDIA—now graze historical support levels, suggesting NVIDIA's relative surge may be peaking. This potential pivot in performance ratios could herald a strategic window for investors believing in the resilience and upside of TSLA, ETH, and BTC to consider hedging positions by shorting NVIDIA. The Hedging Dilemma: Timing the Market's Ebb The conundrum of the hedge lies in its timing. Historical patterns have shown that prior to a trend reversal, an exuberant decorrelation often manifests—an exodus from the norm that momentarily disfavors the hedger. The Cost of Caution: Weighing the Hedging Expense Beyond the question of 'when' lies the consideration of 'how much.' The cost of hedging with NVIDIA is far from trivial, burdened by the implied volatility premiums, interest rates, and the potentially protracted duration before the trade matures. For the long-short strategist, this isn't merely a trade but a high-stakes game of patience and precision, where the cost of entry must be painstakingly balanced against the expected time for the strategy to bear fruit. Strategic Insights: Crafting the Long-Short Position In this delicate pre-reversal phase, the adept investor would be wise to monitor closely for signs of NVIDIA’s momentum waning. Identifying the optimal entry point for the hedge involves a blend of quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, with a vigilant eye on market sentiment, technological shifts, and broader economic indicators that may precipitate the ratio's about-turn. For hedge fund investors, the apparent zenith in NVIDIA's performance ratios with Tesla, Ethereum, and Bitcoin could signal the opportune moment to recalibrate long-short positions. However, the art of this trade lies not in the action, but in the timing of it. As the market teeters on the brink of a trend reversal, the cost of hedging underscores the need for a meticulous and disciplined approach. The impending period may indeed spell the end of NVIDIA's outperformance, but only the most astute and patient will be poised to capitalize on the shift. This article is presented for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. The analysis contained herein is based on historical market performance and does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider all risks before making investment decisions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Rayane_Fugazi
NVDA ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:NVDA chart mapping/analysis. Breakout/bullish price momentum pushing higher within an ascending parallel channel (green). Bull target(s) Golden Pocker Fib Ascending trend-line resistance (white dotted) 78.6% Fib (+1) Bear target(s) 50% Fib (+1) Descending trend-line support (white dotted) aka "return to scene of crime" 38.2% Fib (+1) Underlying gap fill (~423.81) + lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) confluence support zone 23.6% Fib (+1) Lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) + gap fill (~306.01) confluence support zone
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BlueHatInvestor
$NVDA downside gap-fill potential!NASDAQ:NVDA ,1D: Price dipped just below the 50% line and popped back up over the line after coming off the local lows at 403. Given the 'uncertainty' around the level and duration of a 'higher for longer' rate environment along with the market's general preference for 'clarity' over 'uncertainty', it would not be unreasonable to expect the 'increased volatility' that comes with 'uncertainty' until some level of 'clarity' can be established around the duration of the current 'higher rate environment'. Further adding to the potential for 'market uncertainty' and 'lack of clarity' are the tenuous and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China around access to semi-conductor IP. NASDAQ:NVDA utilizes the cost benefits provided to its model from the 'cost efficiency' of both Chinese and greater Asia's manufacturing and production capacities. Were trade relations around semi-conductor IP between China and the U.S. to become 'less amenable', the deterioration of that relationship could adversely impact NASDAQ:NVDA 's margins. If NASDAQ:NVDA had to re-establish production/manufacturing supply chain relationships elsewhere this could inject 'uncertainty' into the price discovery process. These are 'unknown unknowns' at this point and hard to factor into analysis, but at a minimum, they would increase the potential for 'market uncertainty' and the subsequent 'lack of clarity', which often leads to 'price volatility' until some level of 'certainty' could be re-established. Looking at our 1 day RSI against price I am seeing a 'bearish divergence' whereby price makes 'higher-highs' and 'higher-lows' while the RSI prints 'lower-highs' and 'lower-lows'. This can be taken as a 'leveling off' of momentum that often precedes a change in price direction or, at a minimum, a significant pull back within a constructive trend. (see light violet curves) I would expect that a downside 'gap fill' could be a 'necessary evil' at some point in time across the next 6 weeks or so, and before further gains to the upside could probabilistically be portended from a structural standpoint. The bottom of the gap fill is roughly in confluence with the YTD VWAP (peach). NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Firewalker_Charts
2
NVDA: What to expect for earnings next week?This huge semiconductor has plenty of clout in terms of popularity with retail investors. HFTs are likely to gap on its earnings news which arrives on 11/21, next week. Clearly there are many who are confident NASDAQ:NVDA will meet or beat analyst estimates despite setbacks and restrictions. The run hit resistance and became overextended, so some profit taking is occurring for now. The stock is likely to shift to a tighter consolidation near the high of this platforming range.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Adds $200 Billion as Winning Streak Nvidia Corp. shares are poised to extend gains for a 10th consecutive session, their longest streak of advances since a record-setting dash in December 2016, as the world’s most valuable chipmaker updates its artificial intelligence processor. Nvidia has climbed about 20% during the course of this latest rally, adding about $200 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s as rivals are scrambling to come up with alternatives to challenge its AI dominance. The stock has rallied more than 230% this year through Monday’s close, making it the best performing component on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes as the AI-driven frenzy fueled rallies this year. The latest surge comes as technology stocks rebound amid hopes that Federal Reserve interest rates have peaked. Update On Nvidia's Chip Nvidia said its updated chip, called the H200, will get the ability to use high-bandwidth memory, or HBM3e, allowing it to better cope with the large data sets needed for developing and implementing AI. Nvidia Set To Report Earnings On Nov. 21 Nvidia, which had been under pressure last month as new US rules banned the sale of its cutting-edge chips to China, is scheduled to report earnings on Nov. 21. Price Momentum NVDA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. What does this mean? Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DEXWireNews
DXY, VIX Down = SPY, STONKS UP. Blowoff Top Continues!Traders, It has been an amazingly bullish last couple of weeks both in the stonk world and in cryptos. In this video I cover what has occurred from a technical basis and what I think the charts are now showing us. In short, stonks look to continue their upward trends but crypto is less certain. I also wanted to explain why I went short on a few trades. What was I thinking then and what I am thinking now? Was I too early on my entries or just plain wrong? Stewdamus
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
NVDA Analysis: Share Price Reaches 2-month High on News of New CLess than a month ago, US officials tightened rules on sales of high-end artificial intelligence chips to China. And yesterday, from the SemiAnalysis newsletter, it became known that Nvidia has developed new chips called HGX H20, L20 PCIe and L2 PCIe, which are not subject, in whole or in part, to existing export restrictions to China. The news about the new chips gave bullish momentum to the Nvidia stock market. The NVDA stock price chart shows that: → the price crossed the peak on October 12 (this is peak D, the formation of which we assumed in the analysis of the NVDA stock price on September 14); → NVDA share price shows bullish dynamics after a false breakout of the psychological level of USD 400 per share at the end of October; → the price dropped at the end of yesterday's trading day, forming a potential false breakout of the October peak. It seems that the bears have become more active, trapping overly optimistic buyers. The 4-hour chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern. Note that the market was extremely volatile at the end of August, as evidenced by the ATR indicator. In this active market, large participants had enough counter liquidity to cover long positions (take short positions). And now, with the price rising to the levels of this important August range, the bulls may exhaust their confidence. To overcome it, strong drivers are needed, which can happen during the publication of the company's report for the 3rd quarter — it is scheduled for November 21. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen