NVDIA Is disaster just ahead of us?NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) is on a 3-month pull-back, the first it had on a 1M basis since September - October 2023. The latter was simply a mid-Bull consolidation phase within the wider picture of a Channel Up pattern that started almost 10 years ago.
The price is pulling-back from the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line) and if the 1M MACD forms a Bearish Cross, we should be preparing for a cyclical correction within the pattern which in the previous two times (November 2021 and October 2018 tops) it corrected back to the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a bottom.
The Nov 2021 top was formed exactly at the time of the 1M MACD Bearish Cross, while the October 2018 top was formed 10 months after. If this is a 3-year Cycle then in October or November (2024) we should really see the extent of the correction. If not then this might be another Mid-bull consolidation and we may have (roughly) another 10-12 months before this Cycle tops.
What do you think it's going to be??
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Nvdia
NVDIA Is this -35% correction enough to be a buy opportunity?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) completed a -35% decline from its top on Monday's Low and after a short rebound, it's consolidating. Even though this is the strongest correction it had since the late 2022 market bottom and it almost touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in October 2022, there might be room for some more downside before the next long-term Bullish Leg.
It is important also to note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is still intact as the 20-month Support and the 1D RSI broke the 35.00 level (almost oversold) on Monday. All the above suggest that NVDIA hit a new long-term buy level/ Support.
The Bullish Divergence though on its 1D RSI (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) may indicate the opposite than it normally does. The reason is purely on NVDIA's last such pattern, which basically led to the October 13 2022 bottom.
As you can see, that correction continued the price's Lower Lows despite the ongoing RSI Higher Lows, until it completed a -44% correction. That suggest that there might be room for another -9% decline before the stock breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and starts the new Bullish Leg for good. Of course if it breaks above it earlier, then this pattern projection is invalidated.
As a result, it is recommended to buy the current bottom so that we won't miss on a potential upside by breaking above the 1D MA50 earlier but at the same time reserve some cash for the possibility of a -44% decline around the $80.00 level. In both cases, we will set a $190.00 Target (horizon before end 2024), which is a 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the current bottom.
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NVDIA Technical buy now but recovery may take a bit longer.Last time we analyzed NVDIA corporation (NVDA) we called for a sell and clearly noted that it was not the time to buy yet (July 03, see chart below):
Our $110.00 downside Target got hit last week and as the price remains below the 1D MA50, it has entered an accumulation zone, which in the past has been very short-lived (April 19 2024, December 28 2022) and the price rebounded to a Higher High instantly or more long lasting (August 14 - October 31 2023).
In any event, NVDA has completed more than a -23.00% decline from its All Time High, which is the normal correction within the 22-month Channel Up, so that constitutes a new long-term buy entry for us. Our Target, whether we get a quick rebound or a longer-term one, is $170 (a 'modest' 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
On a side-note, the 1D RSI (black trend-line at the bottom of the chart) is also below the 40.00 mark, which within the Channel Up pattern has been the top of the long-term Buy Zone.
Note also that only a break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), constitutes a long-term bearish reversal.
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A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – A week that has it allIt’s a huge week ahead by way of event risk for traders to navigate positions over – traders, therefore, need to be aware of key timings and consider the possibility for volatility and if there is a skew in the directional risk when the market learns of the outcome. That is typically a function of reviewing expectations and the outcome relative to what is ‘priced in’, market positioning and liquidity.
US earnings the marquee risk this week
I would argue that for single stock and equity index traders US earnings will likely prove to be the most influential factor, with 40% of the S&P500 market cap due to report this week, with 4 of the 6 biggest market cap names in the NAS100 reporting.
With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote wide-index volatility. Nvidia and Apple aside, company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% - the after-market session on Tuesday (when MSFT report) could get lively, so make sure you’ve got our US 24hr equity offering on your platform to assess (and even trade) the ensuing move.
US nonfarm payrolls will offer meaningful insights for macro heads
US nonfarm payrolls are the next most meaningful event risk for me. From a playbook/risk perspective, if the payrolls print comes out around 200k, with an unchanged unemployment rate then making a call on the USD, NAS100 and gold is a tough exercise as the macro argument doesn’t really evolve.
It is easier clearly to consider the path of the USD if we see a payrolls print below 170k, concurrently with a higher unemployment (U/E) rate, and a further moderation in average earnings. In fact, if we see a U/E rate above 4.1% then one could argue the US swaps pricing may even price a small probability of a 50bp cut in the September FOMC meeting – a factor which should suggest buying USDs because there is little chance that will play out.
A lower U/E rate, and above 200k payrolls would make the macro somewhat messy as it challenges the strong consensus position for a cut in September.
The FOMC meeting to open the door to cuts
The Fed meeting statement and Powell’s presser is really an exercise in assessing what’s priced into the US swaps/rates curve and whether the tone sufficiently meets these expectations for easing. The door needs to be opened for a cut or US 2yr Treasury yield will spike higher, and the USD will rally hard, taking US equity lower. The options market implies a -/+1% move in the S&P500 on FOMC day, which is above the typical -/+0.8% move we’ve seen in recent meetings - so the market is priced for increased movement, and that needs to be accounted for in our risk and position sizing.
The BoJ meeting will get good airtime, and while the JPY has undergone a huge rally of late, let’s not forget that the BoJ also have a strong history of disappointing those calling for hawkish policy action. I am somewhat sceptical that BoJ action will have much of an effect on the JPY anyhow, as the move we’ve seen has been more about a position unwind, with JPY-funded carry positions unwound, with cross-asset volatility and expected Fed policy changes the greater driver. Still, it’s a risk that could promote vol and needs to be considered.
Aus Q2 CPI to make or break an August RBA rate hike
The Aus CPI print will be closely watched by AUD and ASX200 traders, as it could put the 6 August RBA meeting as a truly ‘live’ event, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could take any chance of a rate hike off the table – much to the relief of the local equity market.
We also see increased two-way risks to the GBP with the BoE meeting a lineball call as to whether the BoE cut bank rate. While the EU and Swiss CPI reports could also move the dial on the EUR and CHF.
Elsewhere, I will be watching crude oil and gold in the wake of rising geopolitical news flow between Israel and Hezbollah. While Trump’s weekend speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville has cemented Bitcoin (and the miners) as a key election trade.
US Earnings this week – It’s a busy week on the US corporate reporting calendar. 40% of the S&P500 market cap report numbers, but the names that should get the greatest attention from clients include:
AMD (the options market implies a -/+7.7% move on the day of reporting), Boeing (-/+4.2%), Microsoft (-/+4.7%), Meta (-/+8.7%), (QCOM -/+7.6%), Coinbase (-/+9.8%), Apple (-/+3.8%), Amazon (-/+7.2%) and Intel (-/+7.4%).
The ASX200 full-year earnings season commences with Rio Tinto starting proceedings on Wednesday.
Central bank meetings due this week:
BoJ Meeting (Wednesday – no set time) – The majority of economists see the BoJ keeping rates unchanged at 0.1%, although the distribution of these estimates range includes a 10bp, 15bp and even 25bp hike. Japan Swaps market price a 10bp hike at a 50% probability. There will also be a focus on any changes to the monthly pace of BoJ bond buying, where the central view is we see the monthly pace taken from Y6t p/m to Y4.5t. With the trade-weighted JPY rallying 2.6% last week, a number of traders have covered JPY shorts into the meeting, and positioning is far less extreme.
Fed Reserve meeting and Chair Powell Press conference (Thursday 04:00 AEST) – the Fed will leave rates on hold, but the tone of the FOMC statement should evolve to show the Fed has greater confidence in the inflation outlook and to lay the groundwork for a cut in the September FOMC meeting. With a 25bp cut in September now fully priced, and 67bp (or 2.7 25bp cuts) priced by December, the move in the USD, gold and US equity will come in the tone of the FOMC statement and chair Powell’s press conference relative to this pricing. Will the statement meet these expectations sufficiently?
BoE Meeting (Thursday 21:00 AEST / 12:00 UK) – Eyeing UK swaps pricing, a 25bp cut is priced at a 50% probability, so market participants see a cut as finely balanced. Economists, however, see a greater probability of easing, with 24 of 32 polled by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp cut to pull bank rate to 5%. The split in the MPC votes for a hold/cut may also be closely followed.
Marquee economic data & consensus expectations:
US nonfarm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for payrolls to come in at 178k (economists’ estimates range from 225k to 70k), with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings at 3.7% (from 3.9%). There may be disruptions that impact the nonfarm payrolls print, notably from Hurricane Beryl, so forecasting the jobs report is typically a huge challenge.
An unemployment print that ticks up to 4.2%, with an NFP print below 170k would be a surprise, but it could feasibly bring a 50bp cut onto the table in September, at least in swaps/rates pricing.
Other notable US economic data points this week that could move markets include Consumer confidence (Wed) and ISM Manufacturing (Thursday).
Australia Q2 CPI (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Headline CPI is expected at 1% Q/Q / 3.8% y/y, with trimmed-mean CPI at 1% q/q / 4% y/y (the economist estimates range from 4.1% to 3.8%). For a more detailed preview on Aus CPI, see my preview
EU CPI (Wed 19:00 AEST) – Headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% y/y (unchanged), with core CPI at 2.8% y/y (from 2.9%). The market already sees a cut from the ECB in the September meeting, but
China manufacturing & services PMIs (Wed 11:30 AEST) – Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in a little worse than the prior month at 49.4 (from 49.5), with services PMI expected at 50.2 (50.5).
Switzerland CPI (Friday 16:30 AEST) – Headline CPI expected at 1.3% y/y (unchanged) with core CPI also unchanged at 1.1% y/y.
Good luck to all.
NVDIA Not the time to buy yet.NVDIA corporation (NVDA) is on the 3rd straight week of losses following the mid-June High, which was a Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up. During that time the stock turns into a Buy only after it breaks below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As you can see some times the bottom process takes longer, other times it is very short. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been broken since mid-January 2023. At the moment, the stock has started the new Bearish Leg. Past such Legs extended to at least -22.56% and with a maximum -26.18%.
We are ready to buy at $110.00 and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $170.00 (each Higher High is on a Fibonacci extension lower).
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$NVDA #Nvidia Algorithm Buy Alert NASDAQ:NVDA #Nvidia Algorithm Buy Alert
Our algorithm gave a buy alert today, and we entered a long position at 09:45am for a day trade. In addition to our algorithmic signals, we incorporate other technical analyses to inform our trades. A downtrend line, for instance, provided added confidence in our decision to take a long position for this day trade. We monitor a handful of stocks, with NASDAQ:NVDA among them. It's worth noting that we focus exclusively on long positions and avoid shorting growth stocks like NASDAQ:NVDA
$NVDA updated levels and path to the top $1170I still think we hit the same upside levels but think we take a different path to get there than I originally thought.
I've been anticipating a big move down before we hit the top, and I still think it happens, but I think we go to different price levels and it happens in a different timeframe than I previously thought.
Everyone thinks the trade is going to be simple to the $1200 or so price target, however, I don't think it's going to be that easy.
I'm anticipating a 20% pullback before we get to the top, to shake out longs before the last leg higher.
I think we continue higher up until the $1071 zone (resistance) around May 29th. Then fall 20% or afterwards to $877 region before continuing up on the last leg higher.
What would be the catalyst? Well next week we have GDP and initial jobless claim readings on Thursday and then PCE on Friday. I think that would be the catalyst to bring price back down below $900 before the final leg higher.
I think it's a sharp quick move, then we resume the path to the top. Top should be the upper resistance levels.
Let's see if it plays out.
NVDA well on the way to break 1000 Psych Target!GREEN TrapZone is back and UMVD Picked the end of retrace perfectly. We have a bit of steep angle 4 but it just means UNTIL we break it - we have very strong momentum up.
Angle 1 from the recent downtrend is close by, so it will be short term target, as loong as we have Green BARS and GREEN UMVD !
Bitcoin Holds Support After US CPI PrintThe US dollar is showing a notable downturn after today's CPI figures were released at 3.4%, down from the previous 3.5%. This reinforces market sentiment that the Fed is unlikely to hike rates, especially after comments made by Powell yesterday. This scenario supports a risk-on environment, especially considering the bearish Elliott Wave structure in the US yields, suggesting further declines. This backdrop implies that other assets could rally. For instance, Bitcoin has seen a significant bounce, finding support at crucial trend lines, and can be poised for higher levels if HS neckline near 66k is broken . Similarly, Nvidia and silver also show potential for gains in the coming weeks.
However, building intraday trades at this juncture can be challenging due to potential setbacks before the market continues in the direction of dollar weakness.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a comment below, like this video, and consider sharing for more updates in the future.
Grega
NVDIA Next pull-back will be the one to buy.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been going exactly as planned since our latest update (February 16, see chart below) and looks very promising to hit the 1150 Target:
On the shorter term, the 1D time-frame, we see one last buy opportunity arising for those who missed our earlier buy call. Based on the (-21.66%) symmetry of the current correction with that of August - October 2023, we expect NVDIA to make another pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which should be its last before the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up pattern begins.
See how similar even the 1D RSI fractals are. Our Target remains $1150.
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NVDIA: bottomed but may consolidate for a while. Massive upside.NVDA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.860, MACD = -7.940, ADX = 34.317) as it corrected to a respectable extent, a correction that we have been expected as pointed out on our latest idea. The Channel Up is intact, the price crossed under the 1D MA50 and like the September-October correction, it may consolidate until it catches up with the 1D MA100. Whatever the case, this is most likely NVDIA's bottom, a symmetric -21.33% correction with an enormous upside on the 4.0 Fib extension, like the two Highs prior. For the time being our target is a more modest one on the 2.0 Fib (TP = 1,250).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NVDA Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
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1-18-2024
GREEN UMVD pushing the price UP with a strong Green TrapZone.
NVDIA: Is it finally correcting?NVDIA Corporation is having a -5.50% day so far and that was enough to make the 1D timeframe not overbought again (RSI = 69.907, MACD = 67.840, ADX = 37.914) for the first time since February 21st. On the 1W timeframe though it remains vastly overbought (RSI = 89.349), which means that on the long term the stock has considerable room for a downward correction.
However on this 1D chart, there are no signs of a bigger correction yet, just a 'standard' -21% to -26%, which gives a short term target on the middle of the 18 month Channel Up (TP = 775.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NVDIA targeting $1150 before a correction.Arguably one of the hottest (if not the hottest) stock in 2023 has been NVDIA Corporation (NVDA), currently sitting at roughly + 570% from its October 2022 market bottom. Our December 18 2023 long (see chart below) hit its target, with the price even soaring higher:
The question is, will it keep rising or finally give way to a proper correction or at best consolidation? Based on the vastly overbought 1W RSI (84.00), we are approaching levels of May 2022, which gave way to July's consolidation.
That consolidation however (July - December 2023) is identical to those of September 2020 - March 2021 and January - April 2017. All three consolidation phases took place in the middle of a Channel Up, broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) but found Support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Note that between all Channel Up patterns a strong correction took place that reached as low as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The correction phase was confirmed only after the price broke below the 1W MA50.
As a result, as long as the 1D MA100 holds and closes all 1W candles above it (or at worst the 1W MA50), we expect NVDIA to hit at least $1150, which would represent a rise marginally below +207.00% from the consolidation's bottom. As you can see on the chart, the previous 2 Channel Up patterns, peaked on the same % range (+207% and +210%) from their respective consolidations.
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AMD?interesting chart. i have the AVWAP at the 52 week low showing confluence with the support trend line. after earnings and fed speak we broke out the channel. were coming close to geting above the 0.68 fib retrace from last high 132/133ish area.
were also tradin above the 200-100-50 moving averages
that can also be a giant bull flag and cup and handle and all those measured moves take you to key areas. idk if it gets there or when. but just a text book looking chart right now.
NVDIA Supported by the 1D MA50, targeting $620.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed all 1D candles above the Support, as presented on our October 22 idea, and easily rebounded aggressively to our $476.50 target (see chart below):
This time the rebound is very stable on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the log Channel Up since October 2022 showing incredible upside potential. Best to wait for the Rectangle's top to break first though, as a similar pattern in late 2022 gave a rally to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension when it broke upwards. As a result when it does again, our target will be $620 (1.786 Fib ext).
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Can Nvidia Be Knocked Off The AI Top Spot?AMD's recent launch of the Instinct MI300X AI chip marks a significant entry into the AI chip market, challenging Nvidia's dominance. Supported by Microsoft and Meta, this innovative chip positions AMD as a strong competitor in the sector. Analysts predict AMD could capture about 10% of the AI chip market, a notable achievement considering Nvidia's current market stronghold.
Following the announcement, AMD's stock witnessed a nearly 10% surge, indicating strong investor confidence in the new product's market potential. In contrast, Nvidia saw a modest 2.4% increase in its shares. Despite this, Nvidia has experienced a substantial 2.15% increase in its stock value over the past year, showcasing its robust market presence.
AMD's ambitious goal to achieve $2 billion in AI GPU sales by 2024 underlines their commitment to the Instinct MI300X's success. Meanwhile, Nvidia, currently in a consolidation phase, fluctuates between support and resistance levels of $400 and $500, respectively.
The introduction of the Instinct MI300X by AMD heralds a new era in the AI chip market, setting the stage for an intense competition between these tech giants.
NVDIA: Will the 1D MA50 hold?NVDA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.753, MACD = 1.350, ADX = 31.640) as the Channel Up since the October 13th 2022 bottom has transitioned into a Rectangle where the stock in consolidating. The price is exactly on the 1D MA50 in the last three sessions, making it a key support for a possible continuation of the uptrend. If it holds, it will continue to follow a pattern similar to October-December 2022 when a 0.5 Fibonacci hold catapulted the price to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. The RSI trend makes the comparison more easy to understand.
The Rectangle pattern is favorable for us at the moment as it provides an extra validation point. We will only buy if NVDIA crosses over its top and as the fractal suggests, target the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 635.00).
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NVIDIA - Head and Shoulders, trading below the Neckline!This stock is going to lose it's 1 trillion dollar mcap.
At $500 The Shillers in suits on CNBC were talking about total addressable market for this company
Major RED flag LOLOL
Technically coming back to test the previous highs is perfectly reasonable
but unfortunate for ppl buying the tops ofc.
NVDIA Is this CRUNCH TIME for the Head and Shoulders??NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has technically completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a standard market top formation. The price almost touched Support 1 (410.00) on Friday and the Neckline (Higher Lows) of the pattern. As long as those hold, we can be bullish as the risk is low at the bottom while the upside much higher proportionally on Resistance 1 (476.50).
If however the price closes a 1D candle below Fib 1.0 (or even better Support 2), we will reverse to selling as the H&S suggests. Out target will be short-term on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), potentially hitting its extension at 370.00. Technically the H&S target extends as low as the 2.0 Fibonacci level, which interestingly enough, it is just below the 306.15 candle closing of the last day before the huge +25% price gap on the opening of May 25 2023.
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NVDIA Buying confirmed. $510 is the target.NVDIA is making the 2nd test of the 1day MA50 today under a 1day MACD Bullish Cross, the first formed that low since January 10th 2023.
We have used this Fibonacci Channel for our previous trade (chart at the bottom) and we will stick to that, as the price is rising after a Higher Low.
We may see a diverging Channel Up however, keep that in mind.
Once the price closes over the 1day MA50 buy and target 510 (+24.30% rise).
Previous chart:
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