NVDA Great opportunity on the next pull-back of the Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months with the price currently on its middle, consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This price struggle to pick up a rebound, resembles the previous bearish leg of the Channel Up, which after a series of Lower Highs, got rejected to form a new bottom (Higher Lows. The 1D MA50 sideways action as halfway through.
We can see a similar consolidation between the 1D RSI structures of the two fractals. The 1D MACD will give a bullish confirmation when it forms a Bullish Cross, but it may a little after the bottom is in, which means you may catch the uptrend on a slightly later stage. In any case it will give a lower risk factor (technically confirmed signal).
We will wait for the price to approach the bottom of the Channel Up, assuming of course it doesn't break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and target $515.00.
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Nvdia
NVDIA: It's now or never for the Channel Up to continue upwards.NVDIA is trading at the bottom of the eleven month Channel Up, around the 1D MA50 but on a neutral1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.399, MACD = -2.580, ADX = 27.665). As long as the price trades inside the Channel Up, it makes the current level a low risk buy entry. The 1D CCI suggests that the price might be on a bottom like February 23rd, after which it rose by 35.47%.
Consequently our target is of that price range but still contained under the HH trendline (TP = 600.00). If the 1D candle closes under the Channel Up, we will turn bearish and target the 1D MA200 (TP = 330.00)>
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C3.AI - A Highly Volatile Fade With A Big RewardWhether you like it or not, the AI pump, even though it lasted for four months, has come to an end, because "artificial" has never been much of a compliment in the first place.
Consider this:
Artificial butter is called "margarine" and if you use it in pastries in France you'll go to prison
Artificial milk is called "soy drink" and if you drink it then you'll get hormonal problems.
An artificial bed is called a "couch" and you only sleep on it when you did something stupid and hurt your wife's feelings or have become poor.
Regardless, C3.AI, just like Docusign, shows curious signs that it should rally and be a big bagger in the future, but the timing for it to do the go train doesn't make sense at present.
I outline Docusign here:
Docusign - In Theory, A Long-term Technical Multibagger
for C3.AI, the evidence is made the most clear on the monthly bars, which is the big gear that dominates all the smaller time frames anyways.
The point is this:
1. All price action in the four month pump was simply retracing a mid-2021 gap down liquidity void, as evidenced by the bodies of the candles and the move away from the level.
2. The big "omg ChatGPT" pump candle from May, which formed an outside reversal bar, has had the 50% level traded through on two monthly bars
3. The May low of $16.79 is still higher (and meaningfully so on a % basis) than the $13.37 level, which amounted to little more than a stop raid during the 2022 lows
4. These numbers and ranges are enormous in magnitude, but C3 is a very, very volatile stock and only worth $3.16 billion at current levels
5. The same idea for an upside gap play exists at $90, and a strong Q4 rally is extremely possible.
So, let's say that the market makers are willing to take price on a 300%+ moon mission. Let me ask you a question, is it very likely that this will happen before, or after, some sort of manipulation to the downside that shakes out weak hands?
The answer is obvious, and so the target is circa $15 in the remaining portion of September and/or October.
The problem with going long the bottoms on the pump thesis is that the situation in Mainland China with the Spectre of Communism controlling the "Chinese" Communist Party is that the CCP is about to fall.
The Yuan is in rough shape, property developers and commercial real estate are about to explode like they ate a crit from the rocket launcher in Quake 4, and cities are starting to appear empty as a result of Mainland China, the world's motherland, being made empty as a result of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic.
And to think that all these problems are nothing more than a prelude to the real elephant in the room: the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners launched by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
The CCP, Xi, the remnants of the Jiang Faction, and the "International Rules Based Order" that smeared its hands participating in the persecution to court Shanghai and Tsinghua Marxist-Leninist vows for material benefits, can absolutely not escape the consequences of these crimes against humanity.
Humans won't hold people responsible, but Heaven will. There will never be a Nuremburg 2.0, and there won't be a "Great Judgment," but there certainly will be a historic retribution for evil that will be passed down forever.
And this makes long into January of 2024 as the market rallies extremely dangerous.
I can only ask you to consider hedging with volatility when you see the VIX at a 9-handle in November and an 8-handle in December.
When "That Day" really comes, everything will be over in a night.
And it will be too late to cry. You'll be trapped on the greatest gap of all time.
Docusign - In Theory, A Long-term Technical MultibaggerDocusign has its earnings call tomorrow and is another one of those stocks like Disney, Paypal, and Target that's been low for a long time (I have calls linked below), everyone wants to get long on, but they don't go up.
The difference between the other three and Docusign is that Docusign may be undervalued at its $10 billion market cap and has significant tells in its price action that show it may be a multi-bagger long term.
It shows the most clearly on the monthly, as the $180 level that the November of 2021 dump took out was never retested or even attempted to be retested on any time frame.
This generally indicates that the market makers will take price back to this level. This is a notable development in light of the fact that price has been in a grinding chop and long accumulation for almost two years.
However, the monthly and weekly candles show no signs that accumulation is complete.
Namely, we are missing the "manipulation" stage of price action where lows are raided.
Considering my thesis on the Nasdaq and the SPX being very bearish this month is legitimate:
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?
and
SPX ES Futures - A Great Deal of Caution Is Advised
On the basis that the JPM Collar where America and the world's most significant bank is long 15,800 SPX 4,225 puts that expire September 29 and have never been in the money is meaningful, Docusign earnings tomorrow morning may be a vanguard dumpster fire.
The significant part of the Docusign price action is that the weekly bars show that even a pump to $60 or $61 is still bearish, and would follow in the footsteps of Disney and Target in being a market maker clowndunk on bulls.
I think the trade on this is to long a higher lows pattern forming at either $42 or $38, since that would give the entire trading range since the IPO a higher lows pattern, or wait until a scheduled market rebound in 2025 after Joe Biden is given his second term as President because Donald Trump died in prison for Xeeeeeeting about election fraud.
Either way, I think early bulls are going to get merked, but whoever can stay patient on this stock will pick up a multi-bagger.
But that multi-bagger may not be scheduled for years, and years away from now may simply be too far away to matter whatsoever.
The key problem with any long-term bull thesis on anything is the impending collapse of Xi Jinping's Chinese Communist Party, which has become ever more obvious from so many pieces of economic data, including reports that places like Shanghai are abnormally empty at the moment.
The persecution of Falun Gong launched by Xi's predecessor Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, has gone on for 24 years and even included the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting against 100 million spiritual cultivators.
Although Xi has been executing the Jiang faction in droves since he came to power in 2013 under the Anti-Corruption Campaign for the persecution, and although Jiang died a few years ago, the persecution continues to this day.
Because Xi is the head of the CCP, he's culpable and responsible for everything the Specter of Communism has done in all of human history.
And so what we may see one day shortly is that Xi throws away the CCP during Beijing evening, which conveniently corresponds to right before Manhattan stock market opening.
The gaps down will be relentless, and will never come back. The bump and run reversal plan to scam the entire world out of trillions more dollars by the Party West International Rules Based Order U.S. Empire will be all for nothing, and everyone will run for their lives.
And on that basis, perhaps Docusign will never amount to anything, for those gaps are obviously there to be retraded to during the next pseudopandemic where you're supposed to stay in your house with the heat off, live on the Metaverse, work on Zoom, digital sign documents, and stay in your open air "15 Minute City" prisons.
Because everyone has been going to Shanghai and Tsinghua to swear Marxist vows, sing Marxist songs, and train the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit System for export in exchange for benefits.
Figuring it out isn't very hard. Believing in it isn't very hard. But too many people have made themselves fools.
Humanity, I hope you can walk out of the catastrophe. But in reality, not many will.
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY AUGUST 25, 2023Key events:
USA - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
On Thursday, all three major US stock indices wrapped up the day with declines surpassing 1% across the board. The Nasdaq, having enjoyed considerable gains recently, bore the brunt of the downward movement. Investor caution prevailed as they anticipated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech on Friday.
Nvidia's shares (NASDAQ: NVDA) managed to cling to a higher position by the close of the session, even after having achieved a record high earlier in the day. In a surprising turn of events, the company unveiled a strong forecast late Wednesday, riding on the back of robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips. Adding to the intrigue, Nvidia disclosed its intentions for a substantial $25 billion stock buyback program.
Nvidia stock daily chart
Nevertheless, all sectors within the S&P 500 faced losses for the day, with semiconductor stocks leading the downturn with a significant drop of 3.4%.
On Thursday, central bankers and economic leaders gathered at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The focal point of anticipation is Powell's forthcoming speech, which is set to shed light on the economic outlook, making it a highly awaited event.
During the week, the market had surged in tandem with Nvidia's performance, as investors expected the company's forecast to provide additional momentum to the ongoing rally in tech stocks, particularly those centered around artificial intelligence.
Boeing (NYSE: BA), a significant constituent of the Dow index, witnessed a sharp decline of over 4% after revealing a delay in 737 Max deliveries due to emerging manufacturing challenges.
Boeing stock daily chart
In the earlier hours of Thursday, data emerged indicating that claims for unemployment benefits in the US indicated a job market that remains persistently robust. This development has the potential to bolster the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates over an extended period. As a result, yields on Treasury bonds saw a marginal uptick.
Furthermore, investors absorbed comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who underscored the necessity of the Fed to sustain its restrictive interest rate approach for a considerable span during a CNBC interview on Thursday.
As part of its strategy to rein in inflation, the Federal Reserve has been gradually raising interest rates since March 2022. Market participants are now eagerly seeking clarity on the possibility of additional rate hikes and the Fed's intended timeline for maintaining elevated interest rates.
Simultaneously, the US dollar index, which serves as a measure of the currency's strength against a basket of six major peers including the euro and yen, surged to a peak of 104.20. This level has not been witnessed since early June, signifying a notable strengthening of the dollar.
US Dollar Currency Index daily chart
The euro's valuation experienced a decline, plunging to its lowest level since mid-June, reaching a nadir of $1.07845.
When juxtaposed with the Japanese yen, the dollar retraced its steps toward the nine-month zenith of 146.545 achieved the previous week, eventually stabilizing at 146.15.
EUR/USD daily chart
In anticipation of national figures, Tokyo's consumer price data, disclosed on Friday, revealed that inflation remained notably higher than the target set by the Bank of Japan. However, there was a consecutive second month of deceleration, indicating a lessening of pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement immediate policy adjustments.
Activity within the Japanese government bond market was limited, as the benchmark 10-year note did not see any trades throughout the day. After having recently climbed to a 9.5-year pinnacle of 0.675% in the previous session, the yield had retreated to 0.645% on Thursday. It's worth noting that the Bank of Japan unexpectedly doubled the unofficial policy cap on the yield to 1% at the conclusion of the previous month.
Conversely, equivalent US Treasury yields saw a marginal increase, eventually settling at 4.245%. This uptick followed a dip to 4.174% in the prior session, though it remained noticeably lower than the peak of 4.366% recorded on Tuesday. This peak marked the highest level observed since November 2007.
GBP/USD daily chart
Once again, the pound is undergoing a decline on Thursday, further extending the downward trend it has displayed over the past couple of days. This weakening is in response to worrisome economic data that has emerged from the UK.
Curiously, this ongoing pound depreciation could be influencing the relatively robust performance of the FTSE today. Amidst the European indices, the FTSE stands apart as one of the few that is maintaining a positive trajectory. While the index experienced early gains during the day, regrettably, these gains gradually waned as time advanced.
XAU/USD daily chart
Although there has been a modest rebound in the value of gold this week, its price movement continues to exhibit a sluggish and lackluster pace, even at this point in time. Despite showing signs of a revival yesterday, the momentum behind this uptick seems to have already faded as of today.
NVDA Falls Flat Today Following Big Market BeatAs we navigate these uncertain times, we must remain cautious and closely monitor the developments in NVDA and the broader stock market.
Unfortunately, NVDA witnessed a lackluster performance today, failing to maintain its momentum after the recent market rally. This decline may raise concerns and prompt us to reevaluate our trading strategies. While noting that a single day's performance does not determine the long-term trajectory is essential, it warrants closer observation.
Considering the current state of the general stock market, keeping a watchful eye on NVDA becomes even more imperative. As we witness increased volatility and potential market fluctuations, staying informed and making well-informed decisions is vital. By closely monitoring NVDA's performance, we can gain valuable insights into the market sentiment and potential trends.
Therefore, I encourage you to include NVDA in your watchlist and diligently track its movements. Keep an eye on the key indicators such as volume, price action, and any significant news or events that might impact the stock. Doing so, we can better navigate the volatile market conditions and make informed trading decisions.
Remember, caution is vital during uncertain times. While the market may present opportunities, it is crucial to approach them with a measured perspective. By staying informed about NVDA's performance and its correlation to the broader market, we can position ourselves to capitalize on potential opportunities or protect our portfolios from potential downturns.
In conclusion, I urge you to closely watch NVDA as it responds to the general stock market fluctuations. Take advantage of the tools and resources available to stay updated on the latest news, market trends, and expert opinions. We can navigate these challenging times more effectively by maintaining a cautious approach and being proactive in our analysis.
$NVDA -Potential Downside (21Aug/2023)- Welcoming NYSE opening this Week with an opened Short position on NASDAQ:NVDA taken last week due to a Broadening Wedge pattern being formed and Lower Highs Market Structure.
May be forced to Trail SL according to how markets will open
from the positive last Friday's Rally .
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any Trading Activity based Solely on this Idea.
Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip...Apple has really been, perhaps arguably, the key reason the bear market rally has been as extreme as it has in 2023.
Looking back to January, there really has not been even a single genuinely bearish day.
But with Q2 earnings as a catalyst, we now have signs of a genuine and significant reversal pattern, and at an all time high. It's very evident on monthly bars.
Weekly bars are even more obvious, showing that today, we took the July low, and there's no luft to the bounce.
Long is a bad trade and short is now a good trade, is what we're being told.
"The trend is your friend, until the end" is a saying with a lot of wisdom. If you can figure out you've ran into "the end" in the first few hours, then you really will be a lucky person.
A lot of people may be about to blow their accounts trying to buy that dip, which they've been conditioned to do so like Pavlov's dog and his bell.
Apple is a company that's maintained close ties, all these years, to the Chinese Communist Party. You should always remember there is a difference between "China" and "the CCP."
China is a 5,000 year old country with a culture of dynasties that were imparted since the Great Flood by the Divine.
The CCP is a 100-year-old Red Demon whose existence was arranged to destroy humanity, the Earth, and the Cosmos itself.
Xi Jinping has ruled both China and the CCP since 2012, and it's both a blessing and a curse for him. If Xi isn't intelligent enough to go Gorbachev-style and overthrow the Party in the middle of the US night, then Xi will go down in history as the leader of the rogue regime at the end, and will be responsible for everything it has done in history.
This includes the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual cultivators.
Although the persecution was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and conducted by the toad's faction all these years, and Xi has been killing and bankrupting the rogue faction's minions in the Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem with being tagged as the CCP's leader is that the head is always the first thing you cut off with the guillotine.
So, here's the thing for Apple.
I expect Apple to take the $176.93 July low, probably sometime next week, based on how the markets are reacting.
From there, we may see a retrace.
What this will indicate is that Apple's market, for the first time in 2023, has finally shifted bearish.
What this is the canary in the coalmine for is a significant correction. You can actually see this kind of pattern play out strongly in Amazon's monthly bars, which I comment on in their earnings pattern below:
Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, Kills
I anticipated that SPX was due for numbers as low as 4,420~ in the below call:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And so the setup with Apple is this:
Short any bounce, with a target of $174. Then, don't get greedy. Anticipate a bounce into the August 18 options expiry.
But that bounce may be no better than a flirt with $190.
From there, you can consider it a "Godshort" with a target below the 2022 $124 low.
And what I want to say is that if Apple has topped, everything is topped.
Everyone is greedy and blinded by greed, buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear.
Buying highs without fear!
"We are fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful" is something Warren Buffett is notable for stating.
And although Buffett doesn't qualify as any kind of a good man, the Truth is the Truth, even if a toad states it.
Be careful. Things are about to change extremely quickly. Can you keep up? Can you enlighten to it?
Missing the chance, there may be no further opportunities.
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?Greed quickly became extreme at the end of July, and the beginning of August has severely punished bulls, who are still buying the dip and buying the dip.
The July high on Nasdaq happened to occur along with the Dow and the SPX in that all three indexes swept out the January '22 pivot that amounted to a rejection that ended that unprecedented bull market.
Looking at monthly bars, you can see how extreme this '23 bear market rally has been, and how far the Nasdaq is above its long-term trendlines, how the COVID points were never tested on SPX or Nasdaq, but were raided on the Dow...
And you get some perspective on the weekly bars.
Here's some key problems for bulls:
1. Equities don't like high interest rates. Big money is needed to move markets and that money likes to seek safe yield. When rates are really high, bonds are really cheap to buy, and money tends to flow into them instead of equities.
2. This means equities rallies in high interest rate environments are bear market rallies by definition. Smart money pumps and sells equities to fuel a buying spree in bonds.
3.With Fed rates pushing 5.5% and there being no chance of cuts until inflation goes from 4% to 2% sustained on a long term basis, ask yourself what really is the bull case that's going to lead to new all time highs?
When you're dealing with multiple fundamental factors that are bearish, but price action is bullish, you absolutely have to be cautious, or else you're likely to get gibed.
Moreover, geopolitical problems are really serious. The biggest problem is the situation in Mainland China with a Chinese Communist Party that is about to fall while the Western propaganda outlets report on absolutely nothing of significance.
All the talk about "Taiwan War" is to make a pariah of Xi Jinping and his faction of Chinese nationalists. What all the globalists are really preparing for is how to take control of China when the CCP falls.
To do this, they need to position a man that has been groomed to take control of the country, and this will be done using the Republic of Taiwan as a proxy.
But "the best laid plans of mice and men" is an issue.
Overhanging all of humanity's head like the Sword of Damocles is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin's faction.
Although Xi has been killing toadJiang's toad faction for over a decade with the Anti-Corruption Campaign, the problem is that Xi is still the Chairman of the Party, and all of its sins in 100 years hang over his neck like a noose.
If Xi is smart, he'll overthrow the Party Gorbachev style.
And if he isn't, he'll go down with it.
But either way, when the Party goes, the persecution will become the #1 issue that all of humanity will have to face, for the sin is extreme.
Equities markets will not be bullish those days, and you truly will be in a new paradigm.
So here's the short term price action on the Nasdaq.
End of July and early August price action confirms that the top, for now, is in. This means that dips are no longer buyable. It's only that you can short the rips.
This will remain true until a certain downside objective is met, and when this becomes true, that downside objective is pretty much exclusively where an old low is.
We have two areas of concern for lower prices.
One is the June low at 14,250. Although I don't expect the market makers to take this point before September, it certainly is possible.
More significant is the 14,850 pivot from the end of June. This number happens to result in a raid on the psychological 15,000 level, there's a gap nearby, and it can serve as a useful level to bounce for heading into the end of August.
Keep in mind that August's monthly options expire on the 18th, which leave a solid 9 trading days remaining before the end of September.
While you might feel that these targets are too far away to be realistic, keep in mind that dumping to 14,100 from where markets closed on Friday is really only 8%.
8% on QQQ amounts to like $25 and isn't that big of a deal compared to what some other three digit stuff does in a single day.
And maybe you really don't believe it either way. But take a look at Apple, the most important stock on the market. It's showing you all the signs that you'd ever need to see that it's either topped or will raid $200 once before going down:
Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip...
Same with Microsoft
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?
Same with Netflix
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives
The scary thing about tops is that the first time you get the sell off, the sell off tends to hurt longs, scare them out, and then you get a bounce that flirts with old highs.
And that pattern leads to the "sell low, buy back higher" phenomenon.
Which results in people buying the tops, hard, and permabears missing their chance to be short and missing the entire move down.
But if you understand what's going on, you can capitalize on the early downside, the early bounce, and Godshort the top and ride the trend down.
It's hard to do because of human emotions and the interference of long periods of time. But the wisdom is right here to do it.
A potential timeline for the downside to finish is literally as early as Wednesday, because August CPI is on deck for Thursday.
Another option is that CPI leads to the blowout under 15,000 and the bounce is into the end of August.
Beware the JPM Collar. Expiring September 29, they're long on SPX puts with a strike of 4,200.
Just ask yourself if America's most keystone systemically important bank is going to be expiring worthless like retail traders do.
NVDIA Short-term buy signal within the 8-month Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) not only found Support yesterday at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up but the strong daily rise managed to close the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time it did so was on January 09 2023, on a similar bullish reversal fractal after a Channel Up bottom.
With the 1D RSI also rebounding exactly on the Support level from the bottom of that fractal, we turn bullish again on the stock, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $540.00.
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American Superconductor - Floating Crystals, Floating CandlesThe new rage on financial social media is that a new room temperature superconductor has been discovered, and appears to be replicable in labs.
This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations.
So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May.
The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese.
Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous.
Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners.
And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+.
The world truly is an asylum.
And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17.
The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped.
So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade:
1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate.
2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea.
3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float.
4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you?
5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive?
6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it?
7. The stock has already quadrupled in price
8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion
9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly
10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery?
In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump.
And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily.
Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open.
I discuss this here:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over.
But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers.
Take a look at the five minute chart.
Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short.
You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom.
After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock.
That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
NVDIA: Still bullish, with the 1D MA50 intact for 6 months.NVDIA is trading inside a Channel Up pattern since December, critically overbought on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 84.098, MACD = 65.650, ADX = 67.416) but on healthy bullish technicals on 1D. During that time, every bearish divergence on the 1D RSI was supported in price terms on a HL trendline that initiated a new rise to a HH.
As long as this level holds, we will remain bullish, aiming at a +25.50% rise (TP = 550.00) as in March. If the price crosses under the 1D MA50, which has been holding for more than 6 months, we doubt the Channel Up bottom will hold, in which case we will turn bearish targeting May's weekly gap (TP = 318.25), which could contact the 1D MA200.
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NVDIA Targeting $520 on the short-term.We haven't looked into NVDIA (NVDA) since May when we mentioned (see chart below) that it wasn't too late to jump onto the rally:
Today our focus is on the shorter-term 1D time-frame where the stock has been trading within a Channel Up since the start of the year. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since January 12. It would appears that the price is trading in waves. The current wave is modelled out of the previous and has started the 2nd upward leg.
Assuming the total rise will be around +42% again, we are putting a $520.00 price target on NVDIA in less than a month.
The cyclical phases are also evident on the 1D RSI, which as you see, after a Channel Down, breaks upwards aggressively.
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NVIDIA Next target = $480NVDIA / NVDA is now starting the short term pull back inside the 2023 Fibonacci Channel Up.
After hitting the 2.0 Fibonacci level, this bullish leg should trade inside 1.0 and 2.0 Fibonacci.
The long term Support is the 1day MA50 but the 1day RSI indicates that we won't hit that unless it reaches its Rising Support, which based on the January-April price action might do in late August.
Until then, buy and target 480.
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Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning SignalFrankly speaking, the pattern that would make the most sense for the markets with the situation in the world at present is that the ATH on Nasdaq, Dow, and SPX are taken before the end of '23.
However, there are a number of problems that indicate despite the extreme greed, bear capitulation, and bull euphoria this may not happen.
One of the biggest fundamental factors is comments made by Jerome Powell at the last FOMC press conference, where for the first time in 15 months, a pause on rate hikes was induced.
The small one is Powell made sure everybody understood that the pause was for June and June alone and not to be misconstrued as a policy change.
The big one is that Powell plainly stated in answers to reporters that rates will not be cut until inflation comes down significantly, and that he expects this to take years.
What this really means is that in order to have inflation really come back down, you need '08 GFC/'20 COVID demand destruction to unfold, but arguably on a bigger and more dramatic scale.
What can cause a bigger and more dramatic worldwide calamity? There are only a few things, and none of them are pretty.
Will they happen before election year? During election year?
On top of this, with the Treasury General Account refill being the catalyst that finally impacts the reverse repo facility, liquidity is coming out of the markets, not going in.
So the fundamentals of the markets and economy are actually worse now at 15,500 in many ways than they were at 10,000.
But fundamentals never matter in the linear way people expect, and that's why you get 50% rallies on tech when tech as a sector is primarily worthless.
So here's the technical breakdown of the NQ.
On weekly and monthly bars, Nasdaq has gone up in a straight line since '23 opened. The low of the year was set in the first week of January.
This is generally bullish and means we can expect new highs.
However, all of these fundamental turns in the feng shui of the economic mood have occurred right as the Nasdaq was pushed back to the distribution block that formed the '21 top.
This area also happens to be the 79% Fibonacci retracement level, and the entire bull run has been composed of a parabolic trend angle of better than 70 percent.
Price now trades far away from every trendline there is.
In fact, the delta between the '22 LOY and the trendline composed of the '18 volmageddon and '20 COVID lows is a staggering 13 percent.
From where we are now it's 6,000 points.
It's too parabolic, and it's happening inside of a fundamental tightening cycle, when China's economy and society is in huge trouble, and also a time when oil and natural gas look as if they're about to go town.
This area between where we are now and the '22 top is an area of huge resistance.
The intention, or "the plan," if you will, may very well be to send it back to the trendline with new highs being incurred only on the back of a Donald Trump 2024 Presidency.
Trump winning '24 won't be quite the "W" for rightists and conservatives and the religious that they think it will be.
In fact, Trump is an ass and may usher in an era of globalism, so make sure you vote for Ron DeSantis or RFK.
If you ask me, the biggest fundamental tell in this is the USD.
The tells are subtle, but February was a gap rebalance, and April was a higher low that also formed a double bottom.
All on its own, I generally feel that's bearish.
But May formed a higher low, and all while equities were mooning.
And on top of that, the DXY stopped during the height of the '22 collapse, at under the 115 psychological level.
Nasdaq never swept the 9,xxx level.
Moreover, VIX and VIX futures are printing 13 and 14 handles, figures usually reserved for the most bullish of economic conditions.
Not economic conditions where the indexes are still trading at lower highs and almost all of the core equities are still trading at just a blip.
Bears have been calling for a crash for months. But how many are not only about to miss the opportunity after getting hurt, but start actually buying the dip?
If Nasdaq can't make a new high and run away by July, then 9,500 is coming and it's going to come fast.
You better believe it.
⭐NVIDIA - Best Buy of the Decade? ⭐⭐⭐⭐NVDA stock has massive growth prospects and its strong fundamentals prove it.
Not sure about the 'Best Buy of the Decade' part but it is definitely a STRONG BUY!
- acquisition of the UK Based Arm. Once this deal closes, Nvidia will enjoy a competitive advantage in the industry. It also will become a major player as a provider for the chip industry and will rule the world of AI.
- Nvidia is making its presence felt across several industries (AI, gaming, crypto mining, defense, electric cars, everywhere NVIDIA) and the demand for its chips is only increasing each quarter
- NIO partnership to Develop a New Generation of Automated Driving Electric Vehicles
- ⭐STOCK SPLIT in 5 days (July 20th)⭐⭐⭐⭐
⭐NVIDIA(NVDA) has announced a four-for-one stock split – to make stock ownership more accessible to
employees and investors. Each shareholder as of July 20th will receive a stock dividend of three additional
shares.
⭐This is like a Cash Dividend but in a form of stock, and it dilutes the high share price while the market cap
and fundamentals remain the same. Starting July 21th , trading will be done on a stock split-adjusted basis.
⭐NVidia split stock means that new investors with limited capital can afford purchases of
NVidia's stock. This potentially provides a significant boost to public involvement and
therefore higher Demand for NVidia shares leading to potentially higher prices,
⭐Take a look at TESLA split and you will probably agree with the statement (Tesla had a
stock split a year ago and its obvious from the chart – it was huge success to Shareholders.
Price went up almost 80% In a matter of 3 weeks, and then after period of consolidation price went up for a New All Time High, banking extra up to 125% for its shareholders.
Therefore, As history repeats –We can potentially expect similar results from NVDA split.
We can buy and hold or you can trade it. I will do both and for sure it will be a fun occasion and I doe xpect a dip to buy when the price will consolidate. That's the best part of the deal fellows.
I am LOVING it,
the FXPROFESSOR
Why is no one talking about this in nvdia shares? 😤 Recently, everyone is talking about AI.
This irection is really promising and this is the future.
But stock prices associated with this direction are already highly inflated.
For example, take NVDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ).
Multiplier P/E ~208 (at a rate of 20-30).
Multiplier P/S ~ 37 (at a rate of 3-5).
Now people don't care that they are buying a business at 10 times the normal value.
But it will take a little time and there will be sobering.
Now NVDIA stock is at an all-time high.
Beginners love to buy on highs.
When someone is buying, someone is selling.
And now large funds and insiders are selling the stock for millions of dollars.
The stock is heavily overbought and no longer has much potential for growth, in the coming months it will fall.
Now AI is about the growth of Big Tech shares, which have already grown by + 50+70% since the beginning of this year! It's a lot.
For example, Apple is generally ~4-5% of its historical maximum 😱
In context of incoming data, we see that conditions in world's economies are destroying, which means that IT sector will not be able to pull market for a long time and will go into correction. Sp500 will also go down accordingly.
And this means that the hype around AI will soon cool down ♨️
Don't buy shares now.
NVDIA Is it late to buy if you missed the +25% jump??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed almost at +25% yesterday and naturally investors who missed the opportunity to buy low might be wondering if it is too late to buy. Technically, the stock is within a 8 year Channel Up on the log scale and following the October 10 2022 Low exactly on its bottom, it has started the new bullish leg towards its top.
The 1W MACD just avoided a Bearish Cross with yesterday's price jump, something that also happened on the week of January 03 2023, which resulted in a relentless rally extension up to today. Our long-term target is $550, which is where the previous two mid-term rally peaks took a pause sideways (35.60% from the Channel's top).
We may potentially see a pull-back (hence an even better buy opportunity) if the 1W MACD eventually makes a Bearish Cross. On March 02 2022, that resulted in a -40% correction to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), so you may reserve an amount in case this opportunity comes again. Typically during such Channel Up rallies, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the uptrend. When it broke in the past, the corrections of late 2018 and 2022 started.
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