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A Bearish Perspective on Apple Stock
Apple Inc., the tech giant known for its innovative products and services, has been a darling of Wall Street for many years. However, some analysts are turning bearish on the company’s stock. Here’s a closer look at why.
Underperformance in 2023
Despite gaining an impressive 49% in 2023, Apple’s stock was the worst-performing FAANG constituent of the year1. The company reported negative revenue growth in all four quarters of 2023, the first time since 2001 that the company’s revenues fell YoY for four straight quarters1.
Downgrades in 2024
The start of 2024 hasn’t been positive for Apple either, with three brokerages downgrading the stock within the first two weeks of the year1. Redburn, Piper Sandler, and Barclays have all downgraded the stock1. While Redburn and Piper Sandler now rate the stock as a “Hold” or equivalent, Barclays downgraded the stock to a “Sell” equivalent with a Street-low target price of $1601.
Concerns Over iPhone Sales
Some brokerages are turning bearish on Apple amid fears of an extended slowdown in iPhone sales1. Analysts are especially worried about the outlook for iPhone sales in China, which is the company’s third-biggest market behind the U.S. and Europe, and accounted for around 19% of its fiscal year 2023 revenues1. Apple is facing tough competition from domestic Chinese smartphone companies like Huawei and Xiaomi1.
Nvidia
NVIDIA Pioneers $30 Mil Initiative to Propel U.S. AI Research
In a groundbreaking move, VANTAGE:NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has joined forces with the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) to spearhead the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource (NAIRR) pilot project. This strategic partnership, aimed at advancing the United States' artificial intelligence industry, sees NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) committing a substantial $30 million towards cutting-edge AI technologies, supercomputing capabilities, and relevant software over the next two years.
The NAIRR pilot project, launched in collaboration with 10 federal agencies, private-sector entities, nonprofits, and philanthropic organizations, seeks to provide researchers and diverse communities with comprehensive access to high-level computing, data resources, AI models, and software. The overarching goal is to accelerate AI research, drive innovation, and enhance the country's global competitiveness in the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence.
At the heart of this initiative is the vision of creating a national research infrastructure that empowers researchers and communities across the U.S. The commitment of $30 million from NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is a pivotal factor in expanding the scale of the pilot, fostering potential breakthroughs, and catalyzing momentum towards full-scale implementation.
The NAIRR pilot's primary objectives are to support fundamental AI research, promote domain-specific research applications, and extend access to AI innovation to communities currently underserved by the AI ecosystem. This includes smaller institutions, rural areas, and institutions serving underrepresented populations that may lack the resources to independently build their computing or data infrastructure.
NVIDIA's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) collaboration with scientific centers goes beyond financial contributions. By scaling up educational and workforce training programs, the initiative aims to enhance AI literacy and skill development across the scientific community. The partnership also facilitates insights from researchers using NVIDIA's platform, contributing to the refinement and enhancement of the company's technology for scientific applications.
The comprehensive support from government partners, including the NSF, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Energy, and others, underscores a unified approach towards advancing AI research. The NAIRR pilot builds on the U.S.'s rich history of leading large-scale scientific endeavors, mirroring the creation of the internet, which played a pivotal role in advancing AI.
The initiative aligns with President Biden's Executive Order 14110, signed in October 2023, directing the NSF to launch the NAIRR pilot within 90 days. By providing access to advanced computing, datasets, models, software, training, and user support, the NAIRR pilot aims to democratize access to AI innovation and pave the way for future investments in trustworthy AI development.
As the U.S. takes a significant step towards establishing itself at the forefront of global AI advancements, the NAIRR pilot promises to drive innovations across sectors, from healthcare to environmental science. This visionary collaboration between NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and the U.S. National Science Foundation sets the stage for a new era in AI research, with the potential to shape the future of technology and innovation.
NVidia looking toppishNVIDIA seems to be near the completion of its wave 3.
In log scale, we can easily see 5 waves completed forming the inside of wave 3.
In the log scale chart we are also at the resistance area of the line linking the tops.
A pullback, possibly all the way down to $400, would be imaginable for a wave 4.
We are seeing negative divergence on the RSI-21 week which adds a bit of confidence to this call.
New highs in the short term would possibly means that the stock is making extension and going further into its parabolic move.
Nvidia Continues on it's impulsive move towards completionNvidia is trading just shy of it's 1.382% Fib extension level at $609 where we would normally see a wave 3 terminate in the premarket. If price has designs to extend, it will more than likely do so in a wave 3. It will be interesting to see how this coincides with the broader SPX cash and futures market, which appears to be in the exact same scenario.
The apparent way Nvidia is subdividing and where it is in the overall count continues to cause me to suspect this entire pattern could complete around earnings time. If this was to align properly, that would mean that earnings will be used as a sell event. Something to keep in mind.
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: living in interesting times We reflect on the week that was and where the US equity markets stole the show, with new highs in the S&P500, and the NAS100 outperforming all major equity markets. A.I names went on a tear on Friday, where notably Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD felt the love. With 16% of the S&P500 market cap reporting this week, earnings and corporate outlooks will play a greater role in the price action – it is hard to be short these markets given the upbeat flow but it’s hard to chase as well.
Tesla and Netflix will be the trader favourites this week, with the options markets implying moves (on the day of reporting) of -/+ 5.4% and 7.5% respectively. Tesla needs to pull something out of the bag to turn sentiment around and we see price having lost 20% in the past 14 days. Netflix comes off the back of a 16.1% rally on the day of reporting Q323 numbers, so longs will be hoping for something similar, to take price above $500. A daily close below the 50-day MA and I’d be exiting longs.
Conversely, the HK50 and CHINAH were savaged by over 5% and shorts continue to be the play, although a surprise cut to the 1 & 5-year Prime Rate would cause a decent reversal higher.
Pushback from several central bankers on the start point and extent of rate cuts (priced into swaps markets) caused front-end bond yields to move higher last week, with the market reevaluating whether March is indeed the start date for many central banks to start a cutting cycle. In the case of the Fed, the implied probability has fallen to 50%, and this pricing should hold firm until we see core PCE print later in the week – The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies (and vice versa).
The USD was the best performing G10 currency last week but with the ECB meeting in play this week, there are reasons to think EURUSD could push back into the 1.0950/70 area. The NZD gets close attention given the Q4 CPI print due and we’re seeing signs of diverging paths between the RBA and RBNZ in market pricing – looking for NZDUSD shorts on a momentum move through 0.6100 and AUDNZD longs at current spot levels, adding on a close through the 200-day MA.
The flow and set-up in gold is a little messy and the price is chopping about – no real directional bias in the near term and would look at selling rallies on the week into $2055 and buying dips into $2000.
While Nat Gas is getting good attention given price is in freefall, Crude is also on the radar with rallies recently sold into $75.20 and dips bought at $70 – A break on either side of that range could be meaningful.
Politics also comes into focus with the New Hampshire REP primary held on Tuesday – it won’t be a market event but could pull Trump one step closer to becoming the REP nominee, a fate most fully expect.
Good luck to all.
Marquee economic data for traders to navigate:
• China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate – After the PBoC surprised and left the Medium-Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged last week the market now assumes the PBoC will also leave the 1 & 5-year prime rate unchanged at 4.2% & 3.45% respectively. The CHINAH was the weakest major equity market last week (-6.5% wow) and could revisit the October 2023 lows unless we see something far more definitive from the Chinese authorities.
• BoJ meeting (23 Jan no set time) – this should be a low vol affair, where expectations for policy change at this meeting are incredibly low, and one would be highly surprised if the BoJ lift rates out of negative territory. Consider the BoJ will provide new CPI and GDP forecasts at this meeting, and they could be very telling of the future need to move away from a negative rate setting.
• NZ Q4 CPI (24 Jan 08:45 AEDT) – the market sees Q4 CPI running at 0.5% QoQ / 4.7% YoY (from 5.6%. This is a clear risk for NZD exposures, where the outcome could see the market questioning if the RBNZ cut before/later than current pricing (in swaps) to start easing in May with 91bp of cuts priced by year-end. I like AUDNZD upside on growing central bank policy divergence.
• EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – the market sees both surveys modestly improving at 44.8 (from 44.4) and 49.0 (48.8) respectively. A services PMI read above 50 would likely promote EUR buying.
• UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:30 AEDT) – The consensus is that we see the manufacturing diffusion index improving a touch to 46.7 (from 46.2), while services should grow at a slower pace at 53.0 (53.4). GBPUSD is carving out a range of 1.2800 to 1.2600 and I’m happy to lean into these levels for now.
• US S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 47.5 (from 47.9) and services at 51.0 (51.4). A services PMI print below 50 could cause some gyrations in the USD and equity.
• Norges Bank meeting (25 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – The Norwegian central bank will almost certainly leave interest rates will stay unchanged at 4.5%. The market prices the first cut from the Norges Bank in June, with 107bp of cuts priced this year.
• Bank of Canada meeting (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market prices no chance of action at this meeting. The first cut from the BoC is priced in April with 101bp of cuts priced this year, so USDCAD (and the CAD crosses) tone of the statement.
• Japan Tokyo CPI (26 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for headlines CPI to come in at 2% (from 2.4%), and super core at 3.4% (3.5%). The JP CPI print would need to miss/beat by some margin to cause a move in the JPY given the print is seen so soon after the BoJ meeting.
• ECB meeting (26 Jan 00:15 AEDT) – the market ascribes no chance of a cut at this meeting, but the ECB will provide new growth and inflation forecasts. Recent communication from multiple ECB members suggests a growing consensus for a cut in June, although EU swaps pencil in the first cut in April (priced at 82%), with 136bp of cuts priced by December.
• US core PCE inflation (27 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is for headline PCE to come in at 0.2% QoQ / 2.6% (unchanged) and core at 0.2% QoQ / 3% YoY (from 3.2%). US swaps put the probability of a cut in the March FOMC at 50%, so the PCE inflation data could influence that pricing and by extension the USD.
New Hampshire (NH) REP Primary (23 Jan) – Donald Trump is leading Nikki Haley in the polls by 15ppt in NH, with Trump picking up votes with Vivek Ramaswamy recently exiting the race, while Nikki Haley is benefiting from Chris Christie’s recent departure. Haley must win here or come very close, or her chances of becoming the REP nominee drop sharply. There is talk that Haley may drop out after NH if she doesn’t come close to gaining the most votes in NH, although she may still run in the South Carolina Primary (24 Feb) given it’s her home state – either way, the race for the REP nominee could essentially be over depending on the outcome of the NH primary. Polls close at 8pm EST, so we should know the outcome shortly after that.
US earnings – GE, Procter & Gamble, IBM (24 Jan after-market), Netflix (24 Jan 08:00 AEDT), Tesla (24 Jan after-market), Visa, Amex, Intel
Nvidia's Reign as the AI King: Navigating the Boom Amidst RivalsNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stands tall, hitting an all-time high as the AI craze continues its unstoppable momentum into 2024. The semiconductor giant's shares surged over 2% to an impressive $594.91, propelling its market cap towards the $1.5 trillion mark. However, Nvidia's ascent is not a solitary journey, as rivals like AMD and Intel are also riding the AI wave, challenging the industry leader's dominance.
The Meta Boost:
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) received a monumental vote of confidence when Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a multi-billion-dollar investment in thousands of Nvidia chips for Meta's ambitious AI projects. In a groundbreaking move, Zuckerberg expressed Meta's intention to build an AI infrastructure equipped with 350,000 Nvidia H100 chips by the end of 2024. The goal? Developing general artificial intelligence with plans to make Meta's AI open source, fostering collaboration across the industry.
Hardware Dominance and Cuda Software Moat:
Nvidia's supremacy in AI chip development is undisputed, boasting an estimated market share ranging from 70% to 90%. Beyond hardware, Nvidia's Cuda software acts as a strategic moat, empowering developers to create robust AI platforms. This dual advantage positions Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) ahead of its competitors, solidifying its stronghold in the rapidly expanding AI market.
Rival Onslaught:
While Nvidia remains the reigning champion, rivals AMD and Intel are not resting on their laurels. AMD's MI300 accelerator, designed to rival Nvidia's data center accelerators, and Intel's upcoming Gaudi3 AI accelerator showcase the industry's competitive spirit. The battle for market share intensifies as these companies strive to offer cutting-edge solutions in the AI hardware space.
The Rise of ASICs:
The landscape is evolving further with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta investing heavily in developing their own application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Unlike the versatile graphics accelerators from Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, ASICs are tailored for specific AI needs, offering enhanced efficiency. This shift poses a potential challenge for Nvidia, as hyperscalers explore alternatives to traditional GPU solutions.
Room for Growth Amidst Challenges:
Despite the intensifying competition and technological shifts, the AI explosion is only in its infancy. Many companies have yet to fully embrace AI, suggesting a vast untapped market. Even if Nvidia faces challenges to its market share, the overall revenue is poised for sustained growth as the demand for AI solutions continues to skyrocket.
Conclusion
As the AI landscape transforms, Nvidia remains the undisputed king, navigating the challenges posed by rivals and emerging technologies. The company's strategic partnerships, hardware dominance, and commitment to open-source collaboration position it as a key player in shaping the future of AI. The journey ahead promises both challenges and opportunities, and only time will tell how Nvidia continues to lead in the dynamic world of artificial intelligence.
NVIDIA / TECHNİCAL ANALYSIS / 4H As long as the trend line remains unbroken and there are candlestick closures above the support zone of 506-487, there should be no issues with buying.
Like and comment if you find value in our analysis.
Feel free to post your ideas and questions at the comments section.
Good luck
Nvidia hits (iii) of iii target & gets closer to Major TopNvidia remains impulsive and within it's wave iii of v of 5. The manner in which price is sub-dividing and given it posture of finishing of it's wave 3 shortly towards the $600 area, this could complete prior to earnings, or result in a sell the earnings event.
NVIDIA ($NVDA): Riding the AI Wave to New Heights
NVIDIA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is on the cusp of a historic moment, with its stock hitting an all-time high and poised to become the fourth-largest company by market capitalization. The company's recent surge is fueled by groundbreaking developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing units (GPUs), propelling NVDA into new frontiers. We delve into the factors driving NVDA's success, the competitive landscape, and whether now is the right time for investors to buy into this tech giant.
The AI Revolution:
NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has long been at the forefront of innovation, pioneering graphics processors that revolutionized computer gaming. The company's GPUs have expanded beyond gaming, finding applications in healthcare, automobiles, and robotics. In a game-changing move, NVIDIA's AI-capable supercomputer played a pivotal role in the advancement of generative AI, exemplified by OpenAI's ChatGPT. This "iPhone moment of AI" not only reshaped the industry but also marked a turning point for NVIDIA's financial performance.
Stellar Financial Performance:
NASDAQ:NVDA 's 2023 rally of 239% and its recent all-time high of 553.46 underscore its exceptional financial performance. Despite a brief dip after its third-quarter earnings report, where profits exceeded expectations at $4.02 per share on sales of $18.12 billion, NASDAQ:NVDA has continued its upward trajectory. The company's data-center sales, a key driver of growth, surged 279% to a record $14.51 billion, showcasing the insatiable demand for NVIDIA's advanced technologies.
Competitive Landscape:
While NVIDIA has maintained its trailblazing status, competitors are catching up. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) launched a new AI chip in December, intensifying the competition in this rapidly evolving space. However, NVIDIA's extensive product portfolio and established market presence position it as a formidable player. The question for investors is whether the company can sustain its lead and fend off competitors eyeing a slice of the burgeoning AI chip market.
Analyst Projections:
Analysts project robust growth for NASDAQ:NVDA , with an estimated 236% increase in per-share earnings to $11.22 for fiscal 2024. Despite concerns about profit growth decelerating to 67% in fiscal 2025, the overall outlook remains positive. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon both hold a bullish perspective, with a price target of $700, suggesting that there is untapped potential in NVIDIA's stock.
Investor Considerations:
While NASDAQ:NVDA 's technical outlook is favorable, with the stock trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average, caution is warranted.
Future Prospects:
The global AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, reaching $67.1 billion in 2024 and doubling to $119 billion by 2027. NASDAQ:NVDA is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, given its track record of innovation and market dominance. However, investors should monitor the competitive landscape and consider the potential impact of emerging technologies on NVDA's market share.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's journey to becoming the fourth-largest company by market capitalization is a testament to its pioneering spirit and technological prowess. While challenges loom on the horizon, the company's strong financial performance, coupled with optimistic analyst projections, paints a compelling picture for investors.
As NASDAQ:NVDA continues to ride the AI wave, the question remains: is now the opportune moment to invest in this tech giant? Only time will reveal whether NVIDIA's ascent is a sustained trajectory or a momentary surge in the ever-evolving landscape of technology stocks.
Nvidia - Higher, Higher And HigherHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
All the way back in 2014 Nvidia broke out of the long term symmetrical triangle formation and entered a crazy bullrun. With the current channel formation on Nvidia, there is a high chance this stock will push higher even more to retest the upper resistance mentioned in my analysis.
From there I do expect a correction which could be similar to the one of 2022.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
NVDA "AI King" BreakoutNvidia stock NVDA price just hit a new all time high Monday after the chip company unveiled new products and partnerships at the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
The company rolled out three new chips that will let gamers, designers and other users make better use of AI on their personal computers.
Technically speaking, the stock NVDA is still having the room to test $530/$544 projected targets on the short term.
Nvidia Long-Term ChartWe are definitely in our wave v of 5 of larger (1) now. In the smaller patterns a move to $650 is not out of the cards...however, please understand your trading the final machinations of a very long term pattern.
A breach of the $400 will signal a potential move back to the sub $100 area.
NVIDIA ($NVDA) Future of AI-Enabled DevicesNVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) appears to be on an impressive trajectory, bolstered by the recent unveiling of its GeForce RTX 40 SUPER Series GPUs at CES 2024. These graphic processing units, built on the Ada Lovelace architecture, promise a significant leap in AI-powered PC experiences. The GPUs boast remarkable capabilities, with up to 52 shader TFLOPS, 121 RT TFLOPS, and 836 AI TOPS, setting new standards in gaming realism and AI-enhanced experiences.
The introduction of these AI-powered chips aligns well with the emerging demand for AI-enabled PCs. Despite recent challenges in the PC market, including declining demand and economic uncertainties, NVIDIA's forward-thinking approach positions it to capitalize on the growing opportunities in the AI PC segment. PC manufacturers like HP Inc. and Dell Technologies are also gearing up to roll out AI PCs, anticipating a recovery in the PC market in 2024.
NVIDIA's transformative technology goes beyond gaming, extending across various sectors such as deep learning inference, generative AI applications, and productivity tools like Adobe Photoshop. The RTX 40 SUPER series chips, equipped with specialized AI Tensor Cores, represent a monumental leap in AI capabilities for PCs, promising users transformative AI experiences.
The technical analysis further supports the positive outlook for NVIDIA. The stock is in a rising trend channel, indicating positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. The recent breakout through resistance levels and the positive signal from the rectangle formation suggest a potential further rise in stock price.
In summary, NVIDIA's strategic focus on cutting-edge AI chips, its readiness to meet the demand for AI-enabled PCs, and the positive technical indicators make it a compelling investment opportunity. The company's commitment to innovation positions it well in the evolving landscape of AI-centric computing, making NVIDIA an attractive choice for investors seeking growth in the technology sector.
$SMCI Soaring: Riding the Waves of AI Growth and Macroeconomic
Super Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) has captured the spotlight with a remarkable 9.6% gain in its stock price during Tuesday's trading session. The confluence of factors driving this ascent includes favorable macroeconomic analyses, bullish sentiments from analysts in the memory-chip industry, and the ripple effect from Nvidia's recent announcements at the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show (CES). As the market absorbs these positive developments, NASDAQ:SMCI 's stock has soared approximately 279% over the past year, underscoring its status as a red-hot AI growth stock.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds:
One key driver behind Super Micro Computer's recent stock surge is the optimistic outlook stemming from macroeconomic analyses. Reports suggest that Wall Street analysts anticipate substantial rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming years. This shift in policy is seen as a tailwind for growth-dependent tech stocks, including those in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. As the macroeconomic backdrop becomes more favorable, Super Micro Computer stands to benefit from increased investor confidence and a positive environment for tech stocks.
Bullish Trends in Memory-Chip Industry:
Citigroup's bullish report on memory-chip stocks adds another layer of optimism to Super Micro Computer's outlook. The report highlights surging demand for AI services as a core catalyst for top memory-chip players. While Super Micro Computer primarily focuses on server solutions, the heightened demand for memory chips driven by AI applications is expected to contribute to the company's growth. The convergence of favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased AI-driven demand positions NASDAQ:SMCI at the forefront of a thriving industry.
Nvidia's Impact:
Nvidia, a leading player in high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs), has indirectly contributed to Super Micro Computer's upward trajectory. Although Nvidia's CES announcements may not directly impact SMCI's business, they underscore positive trends within the tech sector. As a company closely associated with server solutions, Super Micro Computer benefits from the general positive sentiment surrounding advancements in high-performance computing showcased by Nvidia. This indirect boost adds to the overall bullish narrative surrounding $SMCI.
Technical Analysis:
Super Micro Computer's technical analysis reveals a rising trend channel in the medium to long term. This indicates not only positive development but also a growing interest among investors. Breaking through resistance at dollar 310 suggests a potential for further upward movement. Volume analysis aligns well with price trends, indicating a strong and sustained momentum. The
Conclusion:
Super Micro Computer's recent stock surge is not merely a product of isolated events but a culmination of multiple favorable factors. From macroeconomic tailwinds to bullish industry trends and indirect support from Nvidia, NASDAQ:SMCI finds itself at the nexus of a flourishing tech landscape. As the company continues its ascent, investors are keenly watching, and the positive trajectory suggests that Super Micro Computer is poised for sustained growth in the dynamic world of AI and high-performance computing.
Nvidia's Strategic Move into the Chinese AI Market
In a groundbreaking move, Nvidia, the renowned US chipmaker, is set to launch its highly anticipated China-focused AI chip, the H20, in the second quarter of 2024. This strategic development comes in response to US export rules and marks a significant step in Nvidia's commitment to maintaining its stronghold in the ever-expanding global AI hardware market.
Powerful AI Chip Tailored for China:
The H20 chip, part of a trio developed by Nvidia to meet strict regulations, boasts impressive AI capabilities. While initially scheduled for launch in November, the delay was attributed to integration issues faced by server manufacturers. Despite this setback, the chip is poised to make a substantial impact upon its release, with mass production scheduled to commence in Q2 2024.
Market Dynamics and Initial Production Volume:
Insiders reveal that the initial production volume of the H20 chip will be limited, with Nvidia focusing on fulfilling orders for major customers. This exclusivity adds an air of anticipation, hinting at the chip's potential high demand and creating a sense of urgency for investors to secure a stake in this groundbreaking technology.
Potential Reluctance in the Chinese Market:
Recent reports suggest that Chinese companies are hesitating to adopt the downgraded H20, exploring domestic alternatives amid concerns of potential tightening of US restrictions. However, the strategic move by Nvidia demonstrates its commitment to compliance, ensuring sustained access to the lucrative Chinese AI market.
Nvidia's Multi-Pronged Approach:
Apart from the H20, Nvidia has plans for two other chips, the L20 and L2, designed to comply with the latest restrictions. The chipmaker, renowned for its innovative prowess, has yet to announce the sale of any of the three chips. This silence builds anticipation and provides a unique opportunity for investors to position themselves ahead of potential market announcements.
Preserving Market Share Amid Export Restrictions:
Nvidia's bold move comes after tightening US export restrictions limited its shipment of advanced A800 and H800 AI chips. The H20, L20, and L2 chips, although featuring computing power cut back to comply with regulations, still incorporate Nvidia's latest AI features. This positions the company to preserve its market share in China, a vital market for global technology leaders.
Stock Soars on AI Demand:
Nvidia's recent stock surge, nearly tripling in value, is attributed to the growing demand for its Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) vital for AI applications. As a heavyweight in the AI sector, Nvidia's stellar performance has significantly contributed to the Nasdaq Composite's 43% rebound, showcasing the company's pivotal role in driving AI technologies forward.
Conclusion:
As the global AI hardware market continues to expand, Nvidia's strategic foray into the Chinese market with the H20 chip presents a compelling opportunity for investors. The limited initial production volume, potential hesitancy in the Chinese market, and the company's resilient stock performance underscore the unique investment prospects associated with Nvidia. In a landscape where technology stocks are poised for sustained growth, Nvidia stands out as a beacon of innovation and a promising addition to investors' portfolios.
Navigating the NVDA Stock Odyssey Unraveling the Enigma of NVDA
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) emerged as a beacon of success in 2023, propelling indices to new heights and securing its position as a key player. However, as we stand at the cusp of 2024, the question looms large: Will Nvidia's star continue to shine, or is a dimming inevitable?
The Bull Case for Nvidia:
Nvidia's meteoric rise in 2023, with a staggering 240% gain, positioned it as a pivotal force driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to record highs. At the heart of this success lies the burgeoning demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and Nvidia's prowess in graphics cards and data centers. As businesses increasingly embrace AI, Nvidia stands poised to benefit from sustained chip demand, further solidifying its position as a semiconductor leader.
The gaming market, where Nvidia initially made its mark, exhibits signs of resurgence. With higher console sales, increased game purchases, and a growing player base, Nvidia's Q3 gaming revenue saw a substantial uptick. Moreover, the potential introduction of an AI-powered PC in 2024 adds another dimension to the company's growth prospects.
Nvidia's strategic investments, such as its participation in Arm Holdings' IPO, showcase a commitment to maintaining a competitive edge. The company's alignment with Arm's critical technology underscores its foresight and adaptability in the dynamic tech landscape.
The Bear Case for Nvidia:
However, amidst the optimism, concerns linger. The stock, already priced for perfection, trades at 24 times next year's earnings, 27 times sales, and 70 times free cash flow. Any hiccup in Nvidia's trajectory could lead to a significant market correction. With the U.S. restricting the sale and transfer of technology to China, which constitutes 20% of Nvidia's data center revenue, geopolitical tensions pose a tangible threat.
The PC segment, despite potential rejuvenation with the advent of AI PCs, remains in decline. The question arises: Can an AI PC reinvigorate this segment, or is it wishful thinking in the face of evolving consumer preferences?
Analysts' projections offer a glimpse into the divergent opinions on Nvidia's future. While a median 12-month price target of $650 implies a 35% upside, some foresee the stock doubling to $1,100. These projections hinge on the assumption that Nvidia will continue to dominate the AI market, projected to grow at a formidable 40.2% compounded annual growth rate between 2020 and 2027.
Conclusion:
As Nvidia charts its course in 2024, investors find themselves at a crossroads. The company's success hinges on sustaining chip demand, navigating regulatory challenges, and continuing to innovate in the ever-evolving tech landscape. The narrative of Nvidia's journey is still unfolding, with the stock testing crucial resistance levels and riding a rising trend channel. Will Nvidia's trajectory lead to new heights, or will it encounter headwinds that alter its course? Only time will unveil the next chapter in the NVDA stock saga.
Nvidia Price Action Now Has Overlap Watch Purple PathwayIn the black count, price has now overlapped on itself making this direct advance in a wave 5 higher unlikely, but not entirely dead. This could morph into an ending diagonal in which overlap is a tell tale sign...but the purple pathway looks to be the most reasonable path as of this morning.
Best to all,
Chris
Big Tech Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis one might be a doozy to look at and I understand. However... Companies that make up trillions of dollars of the broader market are obviously going to be extremely complex using Mathematical Fib Schematics.
These schematics were NOT easy to organize and lay out together so give me a break.
Each one of these companies has MULTIPLE Fib tools on each of them. This is called Fibonacci Clustering. You can also call it a cluster F***...
All I can say for this one is, You either see it or you don't. I am certain of the veracity of these charts so I don't care what plebs have to say about how this looks. I am the ONLY person who has ever laid this out so perfectly you will EVER see. Quote me on it because good luck finding this material literally anywhere on the internet unless you break into Blackrock's HQ.
Easter Egg: Click Logarithmic mode on NIVIDA for an extra Fib view of why NIVIDA topped out where it did.
NVDA has yet to confirm directionAs per previous postings on my NVDA analysis, price action is still in the posture where either the purple or black counts can play out. It's prudent to remind followers that whether purple plays or black, we will eventually get new highs...however, this next high could be a major top for Nvidia as I have a full longterm count.
Weekly Chart .
The Best and Worst Trades of 2023 💪First of all… happy new year to all traders, globally!
As the year comes to an end, and the new year begins, it’s time to join us in reviewing the top trades that defined our unforgettable year together. Marked by a historic market recovery across various global asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds, 2023 has been a memorable year for all of us.
Among the best performers, the Nasdaq-100 showed an incredible run, climbing more than 50% over the course of the year, while Bitcoin emerged as another noteworthy recovery adding more than $500 billion back to its market cap. While these two stories make many headlines, there’s much more to discuss and look into. After all, that’s what markets are about - research, planning, and data to find the next great trade.
Below, we'll recap these highlights, featuring charts and statistics that explain what happened in 2023 and some emerging trends to watch in 2024.
The best trades of 2023
Long Carvana +1063%
Long Solana +994%
Long Coinbase +448%
Long Avalanche +296%
Long Nvidia +245%
Long Bitcoin +161%
Long US dollars versus Turkish Lira +57%
Long Nasdaq-100 +55%
Short Natural Gas -38%
Short VIX -45%
For those who want to see more data, we’ve created handy lists for you below. Here are the best and worst for some of the most important asset classes:
The best stocks by market cap over $5 billion:
1. Carvana +1063%
2. Bridgegbio +502%
3. Coinbase +448%
4. Affirm +464%
5. Microstrategy +360%
6. Symbotic +346%
7. Applovin +275%
8. Super Micro Computer +253%
9. NVIDIA +245%
10. DraftKings +222%
Notable: Duolingo +232%
The worst stocks by market cap over $5 billion:
1. JD -53%
2. Moderna -45%
3. Pfizer -45%
4. Dollar general -45%
5. Estee Lauder -43%
6. Bayer -35%
7. Hertz -30%
8. Nokia -30%
9. Etsy -28%
10. Alibaba -19%
Notable: NIO -18%
The best performers in crypto by market cap over $3 billion:
1. Solana +994%
2. Chainlink +191%
3. Avalanche +296%
4. Bitcoin +161%
5. Cardano +155%
6. Polkadot +103%
7. Ethereum +97%
8. Tron +92%
9. XRP +88%
10. Dogecoin +33%
The biggest changes in forex - all pairs:
1. Swiss Franc / Turkish Lira +72%
2. British Pound / Turkish Lira +67%
3. Euro / Turkish Lira +63%
4. US Dollar / Turkish Lira +57%
5. Euro / Russian Ruble +33%
6. US Dollar / Russian Ruble +29%
7. Mexican Peso / Japanese Yen +25%
8. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen +19%
9. British Pound / Japanese Yen +15%
10. Euro / Japanese Yen +13%
The best performers in commodities:
1. Cocoa +66%
2. Cattle +23%
3. Gold +13%
4. Sugar +4%
The worst performers in commodities:
1. Natgas -38%
2. Corn -29%
3. Wheat -20%
4. Soybean -11%
Indices:
1. Merval +321%
2. Nasdaq +55%
3. NIKKEI +31%
4. S&P 500 +25%
5. IBEX 35 +21%
6. DAX40 +19%
7. Russell 2000 +18%
8. Eurostoxx 50 +17%
9. CAC40 +15%
10. Eurostoxx 600 +11%
Notables:
Hang Seng -17%
VIX -45%
Thanks for being a part of our community and we look forward to celebrating the end of 2023 and the start of 2024. For those of you who read this far down, we have a game for you – can you spot the new tool we’ve added for 2024?
Happy new year, traders! Stay tuned for more great announcements.
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