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Nvidia

NVDA has topped. Sell it now.2023 has been an incredibly strong year for stocks. The Nasdaq rallied 38% in the first six months for one of the best starts to a year in history. This rally has been primarily led by an AI/tech theme that has been responsible for the bulk of these gains. That part of the rally is likely over, however… at least for now. Every bull market has a “theme” with leading stocks that set the pace. In the late 90s that was the dot-com bubble. In the 2009-2020 bull market that was big tech like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Google (hence the FAANG stocks moniker). The 2020-2021 bull market was led by “work-from-home” stocks like Zoom, Teladoc and Peloton. The 2023 bull market has been led by artificial intelligece. The leading stocks have been Meta, Microsoft, Dynatrace, MongoDB, Palantir, AMD, and the biggest leader of them all, Nvidia. Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs. Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected. Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion. They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news. But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before. This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year. In a bear market, like we had in 2022, what you want to see is the market going UP on BAD news. This is the sign that the low is in, and buyers are coming back in. We saw this on October 13, 2022. After a government inflation report revealed the worst numbers yet – far worse than expectations – the market gapped down and opened a full 3% lower than it was the day before. However, stocks immediately began to rally, and the index surged 5% that day. This was the signal that the low was in. On the other hand, in a bull market, we want to watch for times when the market goes DOWN on GOOD news. This often signals a top. And I believe we saw that on Thursday. Nvidia was the only stock that could have reversed this pullback. The earnings report was better than even the most optimistic investor had hoped. This should have absolutely put an end to the pullback and caused the market to rally higher. Instead, we saw the opposite. So, what does this mean? First of all, and let me be clear on this, I am NOT saying the market is about to crash. I simply believe the “easy money” stage is over. I expect to see fairly choppy conditions for the next few weeks or months, and investors can no longer rely on the bull market to push everything higher. I believe tech stocks have seen their highs for 2023. Those with large open gains in stocks like Meta, Amazon, Apple, Google, Nvidia and the like may consider selling to lock in those gains here. There will still be stocks that go up, some of them by substantial amounts. But I believe this is now a more selective stock picker’s market. Personally, I sold the index funds in my long-term account and moved to cash ( I also went short the Nasdaq via QID). As of yesterday, those index funds funds were up 37% year-to-date. That is a phenomenal year, and I do not want to risk giving those gains back. To me, this is a low-risk decision. The worst-case scenario is that I am wrong or something material changes that propels stocks higher. If this happens, and the Nasdaq makes new highs this year, I will simply buy those funds back. All I will have missed is a 6% move.
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NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by rossgivens
79
Worrisome ? Saudi Arabia is appearing in the global marketThe development and use of artificial intelligence has been a source of much discussion and concern around the world. In this scenario, a country that has long been overlooked in the technological area begins to emerge; Saudi Arabia. It is a controversial country, which participates in several conflicts in the region, directly or indirectly, and which has a bad record of human rights. However, it seeks to modernize and become a technological hub in the region. To do this, it adopts a curious strategy: investing in soccer. The Saudi national championship features names like Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar Junior, as well as some European coaches, who were hired for astronomical values. But what is the purpose of this? It is not just a passion for the sport, but rather a way of diversifying its image and attracting investments. Macroeconomics As the largest Arab economy and one of the largest in the world, Saudi Arabia expects to reach a GDP of over 1 trillion dollars in 2023. However, its economic performance still faces many challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, public debt and current account deficit. In addition, the kingdom seeks to reduce its dependence on oil, whose prices are unstable and subject to external shocks. An example of this was the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused a 4.1% drop in GDP in 2020. Faced with this scenario, the Saudi government implemented measures of fiscal stimulus, public accounts adjustment and economic and social diversification, within the framework of the Vision 2030 plan. These measures favored the recovery of the economy in 2021, with an estimated growth of 8%. For the next few years, the prospects are positive, but moderate: a growth of 3.1% is expected in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024. Table of data for 2020 and current 2023: Source: Nasdaq.com; Al-Monitor The Saudi oil sector It is controlled by the state-owned Saudi Aramco, the largest company in the world in market value and oil extraction. It produces 9.2 million bpd (barrels of oil per day), 9% of world production and half of the bloc’s capacity. The company also influences the global fossil fuel market by its extraction policy and its agreements with OPEC+. In 2020, it led an agreement of the organization to reduce extraction by 9.7 million bpd, 10% of global supply, until April 2021. In 2023, it also announced voluntary cuts in its extraction, with Riyadh saying it would reduce oil by 400 thousand bpd from May until the end of 2023. In addition, it extended the voluntary cut of one million bpd for another month, until July 2023. These measures aim to balance the fossil fuel market and avoid an oversupply. In August 2021, the price of Brent (international reference) was around US$ 72 per barrel, an increase of about 40% compared to the beginning of the year. And a recovery of about 80% compared to the lowest level recorded in April 2020 (US$ 40 per barrel). This high was sustained by the reduction of OPEC+ supply, by the improvement of demand with vaccination and by the expectation of a global economic recovery. The oil sector faces uncertainties and risks, such as the Delta variant of Covid-19, which can reduce the demand for oil, geopolitical tensions and the energy transition to renewable sources. Remember that the war between Russia and Ukraine has a direct impact on this sector, as oil is a strategic and essential resource for the development of many countries. Factors such as supply shortage, energy insecurity, geopolitical tension and emergency stock release affect fossil fuel prices, generating impacts on inflation, transportation, production, and consumption. How to solve this problem? It is important to seek peaceful and diplomatic solutions for the conflict in Ukraine, as well as sustainable and renewable alternatives for the global energy matrix. Oil consumption depends mainly on the level of economic activity of consumer and importer countries, which can increase or decrease their demand. WTI and Brent Oil Technical Analysis WTI Futures To be more precise, WTI suffered a slight drop from 127 to 66.87, resulting in a range between 69.84. In the chart below, we can observe that this corresponds to an accumulation pattern, based on Wyckoff’s structure. Stock data of this fossil fuel still indicate scarcity, as extraction was reduced since the beginning of the pandemic. There was a significant decrease in extraction between 2021 and 2022, compared to the period from 2017 to 2019, when it was much higher. In addition, the ESG sustainable movement agendas have long sought to reduce oil extraction, aiming to raise awareness about the use of fossil fuels worldwide. A more detailed analysis of the daily oil chart reveals an accumulation range. In the month of June, there was a significant increase in buying volume, indicating investor interest in buying. I believe this accumulation range will last for some time. After that, investors should wait for signs of interest rate cuts, which may occur in 2024. Jerome Powell does not signal a cut, but rather increases in interest rates. As we know, lowering inflation in the US economy is a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which directly affects the price of crude oil. The same pattern seems to repeat itself when we examine the Brent oil CFD. Again, we observe an accumulation structure during this period. We can also identify a bearish channel. Even with the buying flow since June, the market may return to the range between 86 and 70 until there are signs of improvement in economic data. What I mean by that is that Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates, took advantage of the appreciation of oil to generate more wealth and profitability. This positively impacted the Middle Eastern countries. High oil prices benefited the countries, which increased their production, revenue and geopolitical influence, and they bought clubs, made sports partnerships, opening doors for diversification. Country’s Investments in Technology Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars in technology and innovation, as part of its plan for economic diversification and social modernization. The country has sought to become a hub for research and development in areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, biotechnology, robotics, and cybersecurity. One of the examples of these investments is the purchase of 3,000 H100 chips from Nvidia, each valued at US$ 40,000, by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust), a national public research institution. These chips are essential for the development of artificial intelligence software, especially those based on the GPT-3 model. Kaust plans to use Nvidia’s chips to create its own ChatGPT, an intelligent conversation system that can interact with users in Arabic and English, answering questions, providing information and offering services. In addition to Kaust, other national institutions and companies have also bought chips from Nvidia to develop artificial intelligence projects. For example, the Saudi Telecom Company (STC), the largest telecommunications operator in the country, acquired 1,000 H100 chips to create a cloud computing platform that offers AI services to corporate and governmental customers. As we explore the implications of Saudi Arabia’s controversial ambitions, it is essential to consider how these actions are shaping global relations and, more specifically, the impact they have on leading companies in the technological scenario, such as Nvidia. What does NVIDIA have to do with it? Nvidia has stood out remarkably in relation to other companies in the development of chips for artificial intelligence, arousing the interest of Middle Eastern countries. But, this rise, caused some concerns to the United States, which began to impose trade restrictions in the region. To better understand why Nvidia has stood out in this scenario, I decided to create a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Let’s explore the reasons behind Nvidia’s continued success in the field of technology. My goal is to show how Nvidia is benefiting from innovation in its sector and how this can impact its market performance. Qualitative analysis NVIDIA Nvidia is a company known for its products aimed at gaming, but that also stands out in the sector and in the race of artificial intelligences. The company positions itself as a leader and reference in this field, being one of the most valuable in the world. In 2020, its revenue was US$ 16.68 billion and, in August 2021, its market value was US$ 538 billion. With more than 18 thousand employees in more than 30 countries, Nvidia has strategic partnerships with technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla. Relevant Details of the Sector of Activity: The semiconductor sector, in which Nvidia operates, is very competitive and innovative. Semiconductors are essential for the manufacture of electronic components and require efficient chips to meet growing demands. Nvidia differentiates itself by its experience in GPUs optimized for parallel processing and AI. In addition to having a solid presence in games, the company also offers solutions for cloud, data centers, IoT and other areas. For this, it invests continuously in research and development. SWOT analysis: _____ Strengths: * Market leadership in the CCaaS segment. * An open and flexible platform that integrates various cloud communication and collaboration solutions. * High quality and security of the services offered by the company. * Strong revenue and profit growth in recent years. Weaknesses: * Dependence on the North American market, which accounts for approximately 70% of the company's revenue. * Vulnerability to cyberattacks and privacy breaches. * Difficulty in retaining and attracting qualified talent in the technology sector. Opportunities: * Increased demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and trends in hybrid work and online education. * Expansion into new geographical markets and customer segments. Development of new products and services that add value to customers and generate recurring revenue. * Strategic partnerships with other technology companies to enhance integration and interoperability of the company's solutions. Threats: * Intensified competition in the CCaaS segment, with the entry or strengthening of major market players such as Microsoft, Google, Cisco, and Facebook. * Regulatory or legal changes that could impact the SaaS sector or the CCaaS segment. * Reduced demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions after the end of the pandemic or the return to in-person activities. Source: Seeking Alpha _____ Fundamental Analysis Going straight to the point about the financial health and performance of the company. For this, let’s use the financial data from the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 (ended July 31, 2023). The financial indicators that we will consider are: EBITDA, CFO, ROE, ROIC, Gross Margin and Operating Margin. Source: Yahoo Finance According to the data, it presents good indicators of profitability, cash generation and margins, despite the drop in revenue and profit compared to the previous year. The company stands out in the data center segment, which grew 61% compared to last year. It faces some challenges, such as Russia’s sanctions and China’s lockdowns, which may affect its performance in the future. But the company continues to invest in innovation and expansion, such as the acquisition of ARM and the launch of the Omniverse platform. NVIDIA is a leader in the graphics chip market, with potential to grow even more in the coming years. Source: Yahoo Finance The company has a liquidity of 5.07, which indicates good liquidity. This means that the company has more than enough to cover its short-term obligations. The company has a debt of 0.19, which indicates low debt. This means that the company has a healthy capital structure and is not heavily leveraged. We can conclude that Nvidia has a solid financial position and that it can take advantage of growth opportunities in the technology market. It has also shown consistent results and exceeded expectations. That is why it is considered one of the best in the technology sector. NVIDIA Technical analysis: Translate: But if we look deeper, the video increases since October 2022. If we look closely at the year 2022, it was a year in which the S&P 500 had a very large devaluation compared to the year 2021: It's evident that major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE have also been impacted by this performance, with balances well below expectations and generating significant pessimism. From October 2022, we began to observe a gradual recovery in major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE, although this began in June when there was an increase in purchases on June 21. Despite the sharp decline, there was a recovery from this drop, forming a range where investors took advantage of the pessimism to buy stocks. The movement observed at the bottom on October 3 corresponds to a “spring,” indicating the end of the downtrend. 2023 has been a positive year for Nvidia, and the recent surge could further boost share prices if it breaches the 483 region. After examining the impact of Nvidia on the global technology scenario, we see that technological innovations are not always used positively. We do not know how far Saudi Arabia plans to go, but its ambition and power raise doubts. The country is a controversial figure in the global scenario and with all the investment in technology and innovation, they can generate concerns for the international community. I hope this article was useful and informative for you. Thank you for your reading. Source: Reuters, Financial Times, Investing.com. Tradingview.com, Yahoo Finance
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Victoredbr
Tech performance after peak valuation?Tech stocks have been soaring, but can this outperformance be sustained or will this artificial intelligence (AI) driven boom mimic the internet explosion and subsequent bust of the 2000-2002 period? Today, gains in the sector are concentrated in large companies like Nvidia and Meta, with year-to-date (YTD) returns standing at 225% and 148% respectively, subsequently causing the Nasdaq 100 to outperform the S&P 500 by around 25% YTD1, mostly due to its extra weighting in the Tech sector (~60% vs ~27%)2. This rally has been accompanied by a significant expansion in valuation multiples, specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Particularly relevant for the Tech sector, the P/S ratio offers a way to evaluate companies that may not yet be profitable but are generating sales—a common scenario among new and innovative firms. For many in the Tech sector today, this ratio has soared to unprecedented levels. At the end of March 2023, Nvidia became the company with the highest P/S ratio in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. It has only increased since then, reaching a P/S ratio of over 40, which is based on the trailing 12 months of sales. Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, however, did forecast a large (60%) jump in future sales, so analysts are now pricing in future sales which brings down the multiple to 25 times expected sales over next 12 months3. This leads us to our key question: based on a historical sample of companies that have reached these valuations in the past, what are the chances that Nvidia can continue to outperform? The research in this piece will explore the implications of high P/S valuations, which will be defined as 25 or over (coincident with Nvidia’s price over expected sales), on future company performance. P/S ratios: from rarity to normality From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, it was uncommon to find a company with a P/S ratio over 25. When it did happen, it was one or two firms each year, and the percentage of the total market cap they represented was negligible. Today, high P/S ratios have become routine, especially in the Tech sector: is this the new normal? The tech bubble of 1999-2002 saw a drastic surge in companies with high P/S ratios. In 1999, there were 56 companies with a P/S ratio over 25, representing over 6% of the total market cap. The trend peaked in 2000, with 113 companies and over 10% of the total market cap. For most of the 2000s, several companies each year reported a P/S ratio over 25, making up a small but not insignificant portion of the total market cap. The COVID-19 era of 2019-2023 saw another surge in high P/S ratios. In 2020, there were 32 companies with P/S ratios over 25, making up 1.10% of the total market cap. The trend extended into 2021 when 44 companies contributed to 2.46% of the total market cap. This shift was partly propelled by an influx of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs), as newly public companies often command high valuations. The momentum shows no signs of waning in 2023, with over a dozen companies already boasting a 25 P/S in Q1 alone—the majority of which are tech stocks. Dynamics of top P/S stocks Within the universe of the top 500 largest US companies by market capitalisation, 99 companies have reached the distinction of having the highest P/S ratio of all companies since the 1960s. Nvidia now holds this title today. The Tech sector takes the lion's share of the highest multiple stocks, representing 27.3% of the companies, followed by the Health and Energy sectors, accounting for 22.2% and 17.2% respectively. To understand the dynamics of the companies with the top P/S ratio, we examined their performance over various periods following the point at which they claimed the top spot. We scrutinised their returns over the subsequent 1, 3, 5-year periods, and until the end of sample or March 2023. An interesting pattern emerged. In the year following the point when a stock takes the top spot for the P/S ratio for the first time, these companies continued outperforming—on average beating the S&P 500 by almost 1.5%. But their momentum falters in the years that follow; within the next three years, their average annual return declines to -4.4%, and the five-year average annual return fell further to -1.5%. Notably, the markets were annualising over 9% over those next 3-5 years, so their under-performance versus the market was more than double digits. When we take the entire history of these stocks, their average return still falls short of the market by over 12% a year. Even when we break it down by sector, it seems as though once a company reaches the position of ‘top P/S’, it struggles to maintain its momentum and keep up with the market. Tech and Health sectors, those with the most companies appearing in this top spot, don’t even outperform in the short term, but have negative returns on average. Declining odds of out-performance Looking at all 2691 companies that have been in the largest 500 at some point, the tables below show how frequently companies reach a specific P/S threshold, and the odds that it will outperform the market in the next 1,3,5,10, and 20 years. For the 231 companies that have reached a P/S over 25, they only outperformed the market in the next year 21% of the time, with a median relative return of -36%. Over longer horizons, this percentage worsens, reaching 9% over the next 3 years, and 4% over the next 20 years. For higher P/S ratios (>40) it’s even less likely to outperform the market on all time frames. The odds become stacked against you having a winning long-term stock at these valuations. The market has seen a shift in recent years, with high price-to-sales (P/S) ratios becoming increasingly common, particularly in the Tech sector. Our analysis suggests that an overemphasis on high P/S stocks may falter in the long run, as it may prove difficult for these companies to sustain the rapid growth required to justify these valuations and continue their performance trajectory. Sources 1 Source: Performance data is referenced from Yahoo Finance, with YTD referring to 2023 through 21 July 2023. 2 Source: Respective S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index factsheets, with current data as of 30 June 2023. 3 Source: Investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2023/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024/default.aspx This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NDX
by aneekaguptaWTE
NAS100 - is the skew of risk tilted for a re-test of 15,800?The current flow suggests this is the risk. On the daily chart, we see price closing above the 61.8 fibo of the July/Aug sell-off, as well as the 24 Aug highs. We see price holding above the 3-day EMA, with this ultra-ST moving average pulling above the 8-day EMA. Momentum accounts would be increasing net long positions on this move. On a micro level, Nvidia is eyeing a new high, and Apple is also showing good buying interest again and as long as those stocks, along with Microsoft, attract new buyers, then the skew of risk is that the NAS100 re-visits 15,800. Happy to cut longs upon a 3- & 8-day EMA bearish crossover, flipping to shorts on a daily close below 14,687.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
Nvidia -> 100% New All Time Highs!Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nvidia 💪 A couple of months ago Nvidia perfectly retested the lower support trendline of the major monthly rising channel and the next resistance towards the upside is roughly at the $750level. You can see that Nvidia still looks a little bit overextended on the weekly timeframe but therefore I do expect the bullish momentum to continue for the next couple of weeks. With the recent break and retest of the $470 daily structure zone, market structure on Nvidia is now back to bullish and it will just be a matter of days until Nvidia creates a new all time high. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by basictradingtv
28
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY AUGUST 25, 2023Key events: USA - Fed Chair Powell Speaks On Thursday, all three major US stock indices wrapped up the day with declines surpassing 1% across the board. The Nasdaq, having enjoyed considerable gains recently, bore the brunt of the downward movement. Investor caution prevailed as they anticipated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech on Friday. Nvidia's shares (NASDAQ: NVDA) managed to cling to a higher position by the close of the session, even after having achieved a record high earlier in the day. In a surprising turn of events, the company unveiled a strong forecast late Wednesday, riding on the back of robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips. Adding to the intrigue, Nvidia disclosed its intentions for a substantial $25 billion stock buyback program. Nvidia stock daily chart Nevertheless, all sectors within the S&P 500 faced losses for the day, with semiconductor stocks leading the downturn with a significant drop of 3.4%. On Thursday, central bankers and economic leaders gathered at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The focal point of anticipation is Powell's forthcoming speech, which is set to shed light on the economic outlook, making it a highly awaited event. During the week, the market had surged in tandem with Nvidia's performance, as investors expected the company's forecast to provide additional momentum to the ongoing rally in tech stocks, particularly those centered around artificial intelligence. Boeing (NYSE: BA), a significant constituent of the Dow index, witnessed a sharp decline of over 4% after revealing a delay in 737 Max deliveries due to emerging manufacturing challenges. Boeing stock daily chart In the earlier hours of Thursday, data emerged indicating that claims for unemployment benefits in the US indicated a job market that remains persistently robust. This development has the potential to bolster the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates over an extended period. As a result, yields on Treasury bonds saw a marginal uptick. Furthermore, investors absorbed comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who underscored the necessity of the Fed to sustain its restrictive interest rate approach for a considerable span during a CNBC interview on Thursday. As part of its strategy to rein in inflation, the Federal Reserve has been gradually raising interest rates since March 2022. Market participants are now eagerly seeking clarity on the possibility of additional rate hikes and the Fed's intended timeline for maintaining elevated interest rates. Simultaneously, the US dollar index, which serves as a measure of the currency's strength against a basket of six major peers including the euro and yen, surged to a peak of 104.20. This level has not been witnessed since early June, signifying a notable strengthening of the dollar. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The euro's valuation experienced a decline, plunging to its lowest level since mid-June, reaching a nadir of $1.07845. When juxtaposed with the Japanese yen, the dollar retraced its steps toward the nine-month zenith of 146.545 achieved the previous week, eventually stabilizing at 146.15. EUR/USD daily chart In anticipation of national figures, Tokyo's consumer price data, disclosed on Friday, revealed that inflation remained notably higher than the target set by the Bank of Japan. However, there was a consecutive second month of deceleration, indicating a lessening of pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement immediate policy adjustments. Activity within the Japanese government bond market was limited, as the benchmark 10-year note did not see any trades throughout the day. After having recently climbed to a 9.5-year pinnacle of 0.675% in the previous session, the yield had retreated to 0.645% on Thursday. It's worth noting that the Bank of Japan unexpectedly doubled the unofficial policy cap on the yield to 1% at the conclusion of the previous month. Conversely, equivalent US Treasury yields saw a marginal increase, eventually settling at 4.245%. This uptick followed a dip to 4.174% in the prior session, though it remained noticeably lower than the peak of 4.366% recorded on Tuesday. This peak marked the highest level observed since November 2007. GBP/USD daily chart Once again, the pound is undergoing a decline on Thursday, further extending the downward trend it has displayed over the past couple of days. This weakening is in response to worrisome economic data that has emerged from the UK. Curiously, this ongoing pound depreciation could be influencing the relatively robust performance of the FTSE today. Amidst the European indices, the FTSE stands apart as one of the few that is maintaining a positive trajectory. While the index experienced early gains during the day, regrettably, these gains gradually waned as time advanced. XAU/USD daily chart Although there has been a modest rebound in the value of gold this week, its price movement continues to exhibit a sluggish and lackluster pace, even at this point in time. Despite showing signs of a revival yesterday, the momentum behind this uptick seems to have already faded as of today.
by FOREXN1
19
NVIDIA - 200 DSMA and OBV Analysis An analysis of how the 200 DSMA and On Balance Volume can help us frame potential set ups for a Nvidia and what it might do next. Bullish Case and Invalidation Level Price is above the 200 DSMA at present and because we are breaking above a recent high on the OBV, this could signal higher highs for price similar to June 2020. Invalidation Level: This bullish scenario can be invalidated if the OBV breaks below the lower resistance line, in which case we can then expect a revisit of 200 SMA. Bearish Case subject to change of current trend If we fall below the 200 DSMA or/and get rejected from the overhead OBV resistance line this would indicate a trend change to the downside and this would look similar to the Oct 2018 signal. We could arguably be at a similar level to February 2020 (pre crash territory) which resulted in the orange handle price action in the prior cup and handle. A similar move would see use correct down to the 200 DSMA. In terms of trading, the OBV would be your lead indicator here, if it breaks its trend to the down side breaching the lower resistance line I would exit the trade. Similarly if it holds and reaches higher towards the upper OBV resistance line I would sit on the trade until we reach the line, at which point you could reduce your position and take some profit, or wait for a confirmation of rejection from the overhead line, then de-risk. The point is, these OBV levels should be able to help you make your decision on the trade, it is ultimately your decision. The chart is fascinating as current price action draws similarities to the Oct 2018 period, the Feb 2020 period and the June 2020 period, all of which were critical market moments. NVIDIA may be turning into a macro asset that can help us determine the overall market trend and direction. Hope this helps PUKA
NASDAQ:NVDA
by PukaCharts
1
Sell NVDA NowNVDA stock has topped. The run is over. And institutions are using Wednesday's earnings beat as a final chance to sell their shares while they can. Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs. Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected... Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion. They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news. But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before. This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year. The 2023 high is in - both for the Nasdaq and Nvidia stock. Institutional sellers are very clearly selling into the good earnings news and using the demand as a chance to exit their multi-billion-dollar positions. Do not make the mistake of buying here. The party is over.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by rossgivens
1
NVDA Falls Flat Today Following Big Market BeatAs we navigate these uncertain times, we must remain cautious and closely monitor the developments in NVDA and the broader stock market. Unfortunately, NVDA witnessed a lackluster performance today, failing to maintain its momentum after the recent market rally. This decline may raise concerns and prompt us to reevaluate our trading strategies. While noting that a single day's performance does not determine the long-term trajectory is essential, it warrants closer observation. Considering the current state of the general stock market, keeping a watchful eye on NVDA becomes even more imperative. As we witness increased volatility and potential market fluctuations, staying informed and making well-informed decisions is vital. By closely monitoring NVDA's performance, we can gain valuable insights into the market sentiment and potential trends. Therefore, I encourage you to include NVDA in your watchlist and diligently track its movements. Keep an eye on the key indicators such as volume, price action, and any significant news or events that might impact the stock. Doing so, we can better navigate the volatile market conditions and make informed trading decisions. Remember, caution is vital during uncertain times. While the market may present opportunities, it is crucial to approach them with a measured perspective. By staying informed about NVDA's performance and its correlation to the broader market, we can position ourselves to capitalize on potential opportunities or protect our portfolios from potential downturns. In conclusion, I urge you to closely watch NVDA as it responds to the general stock market fluctuations. Take advantage of the tools and resources available to stay updated on the latest news, market trends, and expert opinions. We can navigate these challenging times more effectively by maintaining a cautious approach and being proactive in our analysis.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by bryandowningqln
NVIDIA: Fueling the Tech Stocks Rally with Record Results...NVIDIA: Fueling the Tech Stocks Rally with Record Results and Soaring Momentum NVIDIA, the star performer of the S&P 500 and Wall Street's darling stock in 2023, continues to lend robust support to global tech stocks. The company's recent release of quarterly results has cleared a towering bar and led to a surge in its stock price, propelling it to new all-time highs. Delivering Unprecedented Results NVIDIA, renowned for its cutting-edge chip technology, reported second-quarter results that shattered records across revenue, margins, and earnings. The driving force behind this exceptional performance is the surging demand for its AI chips and a resurgence in its gaming segment. Here's a snapshot of its remarkable achievements: 1) Q2 revenue more than doubled from the previous year to reach an impressive $13.5 billion, surpassing the forecasted $11 billion. 2) The company achieved an adjusted gross margin of over 70%, a new record high, leading to a fivefold increase in adjusted EPS compared to the previous year, soaring to $2.70, comfortably exceeding the projected $2.07. 3) NVIDIA's Q3 sales outlook of $16 billion has garnered substantial appreciation, outshining the Wall Street estimate of $12.4 billion. AI Dominance: NVIDIA's Choice of Partners The impressive results are a direct outcome of the escalating demand for advanced and powerful chips capable of running artificial intelligence and machine learning applications. Notably, major players in the global tech industry, including behemoths like Microsoft, Amazon, Alibaba, and Tencent, are racing to acquire NVIDIA's chips to upgrade their data centers. This strategic move will enable them to amplify their own AI services, leading to significant financial gains. This is a pivotal moment as NVIDIA is the exclusive provider of these critical chips, akin to supplying shovels during a gold rush. As the sole proprietor, NVIDIA stands to capitalize on this unique position, confident that its rivals will be racing to catch up in the years to come. Remarkable Surge: Datacenter Sales The mounting demand for advanced chips has translated into staggering results for NVIDIA, particularly evident in the datacenter sales for the second quarter. The company reported datacenter sales of $10.3 billion, which is more than double the figures observed just three months prior. Multifaceted Triumph NVIDIA's exceptional performance extends beyond AI. Sales of chips utilized in gaming consoles and other devices experienced their first increase in over a year, surpassing expectations. Moreover, the segment providing chips to the automotive industry continued to make strides. With AI driving the momentum and other business sectors back on track, NVIDIA appears to be firing on all cylinders. Wall Street's Bullish Outlook Wall Street's unwavering confidence in NVIDIA's potential led to a flurry of target price increases following the impressive quarterly results. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo Evercore ISI, and TD Cowen all elevated their target prices to $600, while Bernstein escalated its target to $675 from $475. Piper Sandler and Oppenheimer also raised their views to $620 and $650, respectively. A notable high target price of $1,100 was set by Rosenblatt. Even Morningstar, which previously held a Sell rating on NVIDIA, upgraded the stock to Hold. NVIDIA's average target price set by over 50 brokers surged to over $580, marking an increase from just $515 before the results were announced and a remarkable leap from below $300 a mere three months ago. This suggests the potential for over 15.5% upside, despite the stock reaching fresh highs, with some bullish analysts projecting a more than twofold increase in the next year. Navigating Potential Risks While NVIDIA is enjoying unprecedented success, potential risks loom on the horizon that could impact its trajectory, particularly as its share price and valuation climb higher. Key challenges include: 1) Supply Chain Dynamics: NVIDIA's performance hinges on its ability to meet market demand swiftly. Although current supply chain challenges have been managed effectively, the prospect of significantly scaling up chip output could pose challenges. 2) US-China Tensions: Trade tensions between the US and China, particularly in the semiconductor sector, present a substantial risk. Restrictions imposed on chip exports to China could impact NVIDIA's sales to a crucial market. 3) AI Investment Reality Check: The fervent demand for AI chips could face a reality check if businesses fail to achieve expected returns from AI investments. Tech companies will need to demonstrate the tangible benefits of AI applications to sustain investment levels. 4) Valuation Adjustment: NVIDIA's premium valuation may need to narrow as competitors catch up, potentially affecting its market position. NVIDIA's Trajectory NVIDIA's stock has surged over 8% in premarket trading, set to open at a record high of $507.50. As it enters uncharted territory, the current rise, although strong, is more moderate compared to previous surges. Nonetheless, the overwhelming consensus on Wall Street suggests that NVIDIA's momentum is far from waning. Despite trading at the lower end of analyst expectations, the stock has the potential to continue its ascent, with some experts projecting the possibility of doubling over the next year. As NVIDIA's journey unfolds, the tech world watches with anticipation for the next chapter in its remarkable trajectory.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by FOREXN1
10
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/24 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4477, 4463, 4452, 4433, 4421, or 4407 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4460, 4448, 4430, 4417, or 4405 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4474. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
✅ Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY AUGUST 24, 2023Key events: USA - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) USA - Initial Jobless Claims The close of Wednesday's trading day witnessed a significant upsurge in US stocks, largely driven by the surging value of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares, as the company approached its quarterly financial disclosures. Nvidia's chips are widely utilized for artificial intelligence (AI) computing applications. Nvidia's shares exhibited a noteworthy climb of 9%, building upon a prior increase of 3.2% during the regular trading session. The company proceeded to predict third-quarter revenue that surpassed the expectations of analysts on Wall Street. This positive momentum also had a ripple effect on other tech companies in after-hours trading. For instance, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) experienced a rise of approximately 2%. Nvidia stock daily chart Microsoft stock daily chart Investors who hold a bullish outlook have nurtured expectations that Nvidia's favorable announcements could provide a further boost to the already robust surge in the value of tech stocks. Taking into account the cumulative movement, Nvidia's stock has soared by over 220% within the current year. The imminent impact of Nvidia's statements during their conference call, specifically related to their financial performance and the landscape of artificial intelligence (AI), is predicted to exert a significant influence on the prevailing market sentiment. Nvidia stands as a vital element within the well-recognized group of mega-cap stocks referred to as the "Magnificent Seven." This group includes prominent names such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). These influential companies have played a pivotal role in driving the substantial upward trajectory observed in the S&P 500 index throughout the ongoing year. S&P 500 daily chart Currently, investors are closely monitoring the unfolding developments in China, with a particular focus on the measures taken by Beijing to safeguard its domestic currency. The proximity of the USD/CNY pair to the 7.30 level is causing heightened concern, as Chinese authorities are acutely aware of the potential implications associated with crossing this threshold. To address this, the People's Bank of China (PBoC), equipped with an array of effective tools, is resolute in ensuring that the rate of depreciation of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) remains under control. Amidst this backdrop, a prevailing consensus among many foreign exchange traders is that the pace of CNY weakening will gradually ease. Despite this projection, given the prevailing decline in interest rates and the strategic management of volatility, the Yuan continues to retain its appeal as a favorable choice for funding carry trades. USD/CNY daily chart The upcoming Jackson Hole conference is set to host Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda, who is expected to participate in the comprehensive panel discussion scheduled for Saturday. Notably, Governor Ueda's most recent public address took place during the ECB's Sintra conference in June, preceding the Yield Curve Control (YCC) adjustment carried out at the July BoJ meeting. This prominent platform offers him an initial opportunity to delve into the intricacies of the YCC modification and its potential ramifications for Japan's interest rates and foreign exchange markets. Shifting focus, the month of July witnessed the UK's Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) undergoing a more substantial decline than initially anticipated. Specifically, the services PMI, a gauge of the services sector's performance, contracted from 51.5 to 48.7, descending below the consensus projection of 51.0. Concurrently, the manufacturing PMI underwent a decline from 45.3 to 42.5, a deviation from the consensus forecast of 45.0. UK Manufacturing PMI This downturn signified a significant milestone: the services index dipped beneath the crucial threshold of 50, denoting a contraction within this sector. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI has retreated to levels reminiscent of those observed during the initial COVID-19 lockdown in May 2020. In the realm of precious metals, today witnessed a climb in gold prices to a pinnacle not observed in two weeks. This surge was triggered by lackluster US business activity data, thereby sparking conjecture that the Federal Reserve might encounter limitations in its ability to sustain a trajectory of interest rate hikes. XAU/USD daily chart Extending their winning streak for the fifth consecutive session, gold prices continued their rebound from the earlier August dip that had driven them to a five-month low. This recovery gained momentum with the dollar's retreat and the easing of Treasury yields from their recent peaks. Notably, spot gold managed to reestablish itself above the significant benchmark of $1,900 per ounce. Despite the encouraging climb, traders maintained a cautious outlook as the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium loomed on the horizon later in the day. This symposium is anticipated to furnish additional insights into the monetary policy stance of the United States, thus harboring the potential to exert influence on prevailing market dynamics.
by FOREXN1
10
Nvidia's stock has been suppressed by the 4.618 on gold splitNvidia's stock has been suppressed by the 4.618 on gold split This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Nvidia's stock in the past year. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section of October 2022. As shown in the figure, the recent high point of Nvidia's stock has been suppressed by the 4.618 position on the gold split at the bottom of the figure! Due to NVIDIA's recent release of its second quarter financial report, its actual revenue was $13.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101%; Under non US GAAP, the net profit was $6.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 422%, directly leading its stock to soar! However, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a bullish turn into a bearish turn. In the future, the 4.618 position on the bottom of the graph above the golden section can be used as the dividing line between bullish and bearish positions for Nvidia stocks!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Think_More
Nvidia -> Earnings ObliterationHello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nvidia 💪 A couple of months ago Nvidia perfectly retested the lower support trendline of the major monthly rising channel and the next resistance towards the upside is roughly at the $800 level. On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nvidia is not slowing down at all and with today's massive +10% after hour earnings gap Nvidia just created new all-time-highs. Since the weekly and the monthly timeframe are both back to bullish now, I am simply waiting for a retest of the previous resistance at the $470 level which is then acting as strong support. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by basictradingtv
28
NVIDIA - No Theatrics NVIDIA - NASDAQ:NVDA Earnings Release today (After Close) Earnings Est: 2.082 Reported: (TBC later today / will re-share) Revenue Est: $11.186 Bln Reported: (TBC later today / will re-share) Mid Term Chart - A correction would be welcome - Revisit of 10 month SMA @ c.$348 would be ideal Long Term Chart - Above 10 month SMA still - Could bounce off the 10 month SMA as it has in the past and continue upwards. - Losing 10 month SMA we cold fall into orange zone PUKA
NASDAQ:NVDA
by PukaCharts
4
NVDA's Earnings Report: Strategic Positions to Consider Introduction: It's time to rejoice as we dive into the exciting world of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and explore the potential positions to consider after their recent earnings report. With the stock prices rising, let's embrace the positive vibes and strategize our moves to make the most of this profitable opportunity! 1. Riding the Momentum: NVDA's earnings report has sent shockwaves through the market, propelling the stock prices to new heights. As traders, we can ride this momentum and capitalize on the upward trend. We can join the celebration by positioning ourselves to benefit from the stock's bullish run and potentially reap impressive profits. 1. Long-Term Growth Perspective: NVDA has consistently proven its ability to innovate and adapt to the ever-evolving tech industry. With a strong focus on artificial intelligence (AI), gaming, and data centers, the company has positioned itself as a global leader. As the demand for these sectors continues to grow, NVDA's long-term growth prospects remain promising. Traders with a more patient approach may consider holding onto their positions, allowing them to enjoy the potential benefits of sustained growth. 2. Options Trading for Enhanced Gains: For traders seeking a more dynamic approach, options trading can offer exciting opportunities. With NVDA's stock prices on the rise, options strategies such as buying calls or employing bullish spreads can help magnify potential gains. By leveraging these strategies, traders can amplify their profits while managing risk effectively. 3. Diversification for Stability: While NVDA's recent earnings report has been impressive, it's always wise to maintain a diversified portfolio. By spreading our investments across different sectors, we can mitigate potential risks associated with any single stock. Consider exploring other promising companies in the tech industry or even different sectors, ensuring a well-rounded portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations. 4. Staying Informed: As traders, staying informed is crucial for making sound investment decisions. Monitoring NVDA's news, industry trends, and quarterly reports will provide valuable insights into the company's performance. Additionally, monitoring the broader market sentiment and potential catalysts can help guide our positioning strategies effectively. Conclusion: With NVDA's earnings report driving its stock prices to new heights, it's an exciting time to be a trader. By capitalizing on the momentum, adopting a long-term growth perspective, exploring options trading, diversifying our portfolio, and staying informed, we can position ourselves for success and potentially reap significant profits. Remember, trading is both an art and a science, and embracing a positive mindset while making informed decisions is the key to thriving in the market. So, let's celebrate NVDA's success and embark on this profitable journey together!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bryandowningqln
2
AlertNVDA stock just breaks out of a bullish flagThis week, Wall Street will focus on Nvidia's quarterly report as investors search for potential catalysts to rekindle the U.S. stock market recovery. In addition to a 6% gain last week, the chipmaker's shares are up 6.66% so far on Monday ahead of Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday. NVDA stock just broke out of a local bullish flag. Traders expect it reaches $500 in the short term. The technical target of the pattern is just below $600!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by almmaye
6