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A Traders’ Playbook; 2024 a year of central bank easing With a new set of weekly candles to assess, we see the USD looking weak, with the greenback having fallen on the week against all G10 and EM currencies, bar the COP - the risk seems skewed for further downside in the buck. EURUSD closed above the former rising trend (drawn from the March lows) and targets 1.0960 (the 61.8 fibo of the July-Oct sell-off), with USDCHF looking to pull below 0.8850, which would keep the bearish trend intact. GBPUSD closed above the 200-day MA, where a break of 1.2500 takes us to 1.2560. USDSEK was the big percentage mover last week, and we look ahead at the Riksbank meeting where a 25bp hike is touch and go. USDCNH is starting to trend lower too, and eyes a break of 7.2000. The PBoC has made it clear that their preference is low volatility, and they have done a sensational job is just about killing off any pulse in the yuan - after trading a tight range since mid-August, will they now step in front of a weakening USD? The fate of the USD resides in the data flow and Fed speakers – so far there has been limited pushback to the 100bp cuts priced for 2024, with US swaps pricing the first ‘live’ FOMC meeting for May. Many will see this as too soon and too punchy, but the market is betting against higher-for-longer, which is also the case in Europe, the UK, Canada, NZ, and others, with the market seeing the ECB kick off an easing cycle in developed economies in April. Central bank easing is a theme that will be front of mind for 2024, with some debate as to why the markets are discounting such easing. The central thesis is that with absolute conviction inflation is heading towards target, labour markets cooling sufficiently and growth at far more subdued levels the need to take rates to a more equilibrium state and out of restrictive is the fundamental reasoning. It’s when the market discounts front-loaded cuts that we see easing as a function of recession hedges, where a central bank would need to get policy rates below inflation. If we look at forward rate differentials – we look at the difference between 1 or 2-year EUR forward rates and that of the US forward rates – we have seen no real skew for US rates to move more aggressively on a relative basis, which would justify the USD sell-off. However, clearly, the US CPI resonated, and the idea that the right-hand side (i.e., USD data is more exceptional than other countries) of the USD smile theory is losing USD support. One could argue that if we work off pure central bank divergence – which has been a profitable way to capture moves in exchange rates throughout 2022 and 2023 – that 2024 could be the year of the JPY. Life is rarely that simplistic though. In equity land, we see consolidation in US indices, and with one eye on moves in the US Treasury market as a guide, where a downside break in the 10yr of 4.37% would be helpful, we subsequently watch for an upside break of 16k in the NAS100 – Nvidia’s earnings could be key here. It’s the EU equity bourses where the momentum is right now, with the GER40, EUSTX50 and SPA35 in beast mode and swing traders will be looking for a pullback to initiate new longs into December. I was positioned for outperformance in Chinese/HK indices but that has been a poor call and I have moved to the sidelines on that, waiting for more constructive flows to be seen. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: OPEC meeting (26 Nov) – the alliance meets in Vienna and with Brent crude in a steep downtrend, and having fallen 20% from the Sept highs, there have been headlines of imminent additional supply cuts to be seen at this meeting. As we head into the weekend meeting, traders with crude exposures need to consider the potential gapping risk in crude. UK Autumn Statement (22 Nov) – Chancellor Hunt offers the autumn statement with talk the govt will focus heavily on imposing sanctions for people who claim benefits and encourage people to take up employment. It feels unlikely this will a vol event for the GBP, although traders will keep an eye out for any tangible fiscal measures that could stimulate growth. Nvidia 3Q earnings (report 21 Nov after-market) – the market looks for another big earnings report from the best performing US stock in 2023 – the market prices Nvidia’s implied move (derived from options pricing) at 7.1% on the day. The market will go into the report positioned for an upside surprise relative to consensus, with expectations that we see data centre sales of $15b. There will be a strong focus on guidance on the impact of US restrictions on AI chips to China and how this could impact data centre sales for 2025/26. The bulls will want to see a fourth consecutive share price increase on quarterly earnings and will naturally want to see a break of $500, which has kept a lid on the share price on seven occasions. US Thanksgiving holiday (23 Nov) – cash equities are closed, and futures have partial settlement. Economic data to navigate: • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate decision (20 Nov 12:15 AEDT) – while the market is on edge for further policy easing – notably for a further cut to banks Reserve Ratio Requirements – few expect a cut to the prime rate, with the 1-year rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 4.2%. • RBA meeting minutes (21 Nov 11:30 AEDT) - after hiking by 25bp I am not sure we’ll learn a lot of new intel from the minutes and traders are better listening to speeches from the RBA governor Bullock as the greater prospect of being an AUD vol event. • US leading Index (21 Nov 02:00) – the consensus is we see the leading index fall 0.7% in October – some have seen this data point as a precursor to recessionary conditions, so a big downside miss may impact the USD. • Canada CPI (22 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the economist’s consensus is we see headline CPI at 3.1% yoy (from 3.8% yoy) and core CPI at 3.6% (3.8%). The expected drop in inflation justifies Canadian rates pricing with the first cut being priced for April 2024 and 64bp of cuts being priced over the coming 12 months. • US FOMC minutes (22 Nov 06:00 AEDT) – after the recent Fed chatter, notably from Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester (a known hawk), who failed to push back on market expectations for rate cuts and suggested the debate is now how long to keep rates restrictive, it’s hard to see the FOMC minutes being too much of a market mover. • US Durable Goods (23 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for -3.2% (from 4.6%). With US Q4 GDP running around 2.2%, a weak print here could see GDP Nowcast models being revised lower, which may see US bond yields pull lower and promote USD selling. • UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Nov 20:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for manufacturing to come in at 49.9 and services PMI 50.4 – A services print below 50 may see bond yields lower, which would drag down the USD. A Services print above 51.0 would revisit calls of US exceptionalism and promote USD buyers. • EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (23 Nov 20:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for manufacturing PMIs to improve modestly at 43.4 (from 43.1 in October), although that is still a woeful outcome. Services PMIs are eyed at 48.1, again a slight improvement from 47.8 – the EUR will be sensitive to the services print, where EU swaps markets price the first cut by the ECB in April and 86bp of cuts over the coming 12 months. • Sweden’s Riksbank meeting – it’s a lineball call on whether the Swedish central bank hike to 4.25%, with swaps pricing 11bp of hikes and 50% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg calling for a 25bp hike. We could see some vol in the SEK, so watch exposures. USDSEK has been in a strong downtrend, so the market is likely positioned long of SEKs going into the meeting. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Nov 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 49.9 (from 50.0) / and services at 50.3 (50.6) – we should see the USD, and risky assets more sensitive to the services print, and certainly if we see the index below 50.0 – the level where we see growth/decline from the prior month. Central bank speakers BoE – Gov Bailey speaks (21 Nov 05:45 AEDT) ECB – 10 speakers – Schnabel (22 Nov 04:00 AEDT) and Lagarde (22 Nov 03:00) get centre focus RBA – Gov Bullock speaks (Monday 10:00 AEDT & Tuesday 19:35)
Long
by Pepperstone
10
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Adds $200 Billion as Winning Streak Nvidia Corp. shares are poised to extend gains for a 10th consecutive session, their longest streak of advances since a record-setting dash in December 2016, as the world’s most valuable chipmaker updates its artificial intelligence processor. Nvidia has climbed about 20% during the course of this latest rally, adding about $200 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s as rivals are scrambling to come up with alternatives to challenge its AI dominance. The stock has rallied more than 230% this year through Monday’s close, making it the best performing component on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes as the AI-driven frenzy fueled rallies this year. The latest surge comes as technology stocks rebound amid hopes that Federal Reserve interest rates have peaked. Update On Nvidia's Chip Nvidia said its updated chip, called the H200, will get the ability to use high-bandwidth memory, or HBM3e, allowing it to better cope with the large data sets needed for developing and implementing AI. Nvidia Set To Report Earnings On Nov. 21 Nvidia, which had been under pressure last month as new US rules banned the sale of its cutting-edge chips to China, is scheduled to report earnings on Nov. 21. Price Momentum NVDA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. What does this mean? Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DEXWireNews
Nvidia: Checked out🏨✅NVDA stock did not miss the opportunity to head for our last relevant target zone in line with our primary assumption. As soon as the minimum requirement was reached, the stock immediately launched a 17% surge, confirming the anchoring of the low of the green wave within this zone. Those who used this zone to enter the long side can now tighten the stop to the entry level. From here, the price should rise significantly and soon break through the resistance at USD 521.39.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by MarketIntel
NVIDIA: Bearish- SHARKS detectedNVIDIA: SHARKS detected In a significant industry shift, Baidu Inc. BIDU has reportedly ordered AI chips from Huawei in a move away from its longtime supplier Nvidia Corporation NVDA, signaling changes in global technology alliances. What happened: Baidu struck a deal with Huawei to supply artificial intelligence chips, marking a shift from its usual supplier, Nvidia, Reuters reported. The move is attributed to increasing US restrictions on technology exports to monitor: EMA.200 and EMA.50 GAPS around $423 and $306 the PRZ
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
NVDA Possible short opportunityNvidia stock, though being of the leaders in the chip and AI markets, is making a strong possible short opportunity. When we look at the Weekly chart, we see a nice Head and Shoulders formation in the making. Points to consider if taking this opportunity: 1. I will be waiting for NVDA to drop below $400 mark, to be more precise, $398. I need this down pump for the entry to be valid. 2. When the play starts, I will set my SL close to $411 level. Why there you may ask? If the drop in price happens, $411 will be the level where 10EMA will be on the Daily time frame, and since this will be a short sell, I don't want to give the market the opportunity to test the higher part of the Neckline. The Neckline of the Head and Shoulders will be my exit point, if the price breaks above the neckline, I will most likely be closing the trade manually. 3. For the TP level , I am looking at couple of possibilities. First one, is the entire length from the Head to the Neckline which is in range of some $100 price movement. The second possibility, the more conservative one, will be the previous Higher High of the movement, sitting around $346.61 price level which is also where the 200EMA is currently at. The third one, is of course the 200EMA itself. As the price keeps moving, it will move as well, and if there is no strong market movement and price makes the second guess on whether or not it will go down, the 200EMA will be my "get out quick" point. Of course, as always, this is no financial advice. This is just my humble opinion.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by De_Banis
2
NVDA Analysis — Stuck in Island AloneGreetings dear comminity! In the vast sea of stock prices, NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) shines distinctively. 💜 If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜 Presently priced at $408, it finds itself ensnared in an intriguing Island Pattern formation. This pattern implies an imminent pullback, with a likely destination being the gap level at $318. For astute investors eyeing long-term positions, this impending dip could offer an enticing entry point. However, a word of caution hangs in the air – tread carefully. While potential gains loom, the risk is equally palpable. Risk Management is Key: Avoiding excessive risk is non-negotiable. Prudent investors should keenly observe the price action as it unfolds towards the $318 mark. Analyze each movement, gauge market sentiment, and only then consider making your move. In the volatile realm of stocks, knowledge is power, and careful strategy is your shield. As NASDAQ:NVDA navigates this intriguing pattern, wise investors stand vigilant, ready to capitalize on opportunities while safeguarding their investments. Happy investing!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Vestinda
NVDIA: An unpopular opinion that won't win us any friends.NVIDIA has been perhaps the tech sector's best poster child for 2023 but (along with the rest of the market) has found itself on a two month pullback. Despite that, the technical outlook on the 1M timeframe remains heavily bullish (RSI = 63.906, MACD = 76.990, ADX = 41.089) due to the enormous logarithmic Channel Up it has been trading in over the years, with the 1M MA50 supporting through the Inflation correction, as well as COVID, Trade wars etc. As the title says, this is an unpopular idea that won't win any friends here but we may see this correction extend to at least near the 0.382 Fibonacci level (rounded estimate $300.00) as the 1M RSI got rejected near the seven year LH trend-line, which makes a giant bearish divergence. In any case, this chart is for the long term investor who is looking for year on year opportunities like this to enter on low risk. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by InvestingScope
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show. The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text: JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515 JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055 JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420 Expiry is December 29, 2023. So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to: 1. Keep price away from 4,515 2. Drive price towards/under 4,055 3. Keep price away from 3,420 Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless. A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge. And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions. The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish. Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken. And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target. A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis. A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit. Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life. If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice. What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession. It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China. But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward? The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage. In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change. 2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter. If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life. You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again. Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns. Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser. But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985. Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800. The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
4
NVDA - Playing (with?) the crowdBesides all the crazy news, I don't believe this company what they say. IMO they just play with the crowd and make nice gains from the News they spread via the media. That's just my opinion, and I'm maybe wrong. But what about the information we can gather from the chart? I have hidden the huge GAP so that we can focus on the last weeks and days. There is a big bounce from the top that to me looks like a Flag, steering in my face. Bulls would argue that is a huge Long signal, right? OK, so be it... But what do my eyes see that makes me wake up at night? Price broke out of this Flag/bounce and within one single bar it was able to reach the Center line. This is not the norm, it's not natural. Second, watch the volume in bar 1 and 2. Should volume not explode if such a breakout is real? Well, it was not real in my trading world. The Market Maker just opened price higher, that's it. No real buyers there, just another GAP to push the price of NVDA higher. Maybe someone will appreciate this and unload it's stock? Hmmm... And where did it stopped? Right at the CL. As I always say: You can fake it, but you can't hide. §8-) My current conclusion? 1. NVDAs price is way too high. The company is not worth the current price. 2. Volume does not confirm higher price. It was made artificially by open higher and push it upwards. 3. The Center line is reached. Price found it's current balance. So, should we short it? Absolutely NOT! Without any clear indications after earnings, I don't touch this bad Boy §8-) I just watch this movie and learn...
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tr8dingN3rd
2