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Navigating Nvidia's Soaring Valuation: What It Means for Inv...Navigating Nvidia's Soaring Valuation: What It Means for Investors As the curtain draws on the first half of 2023, the stock market has witnessed a remarkable spectacle: the meteoric rise of Nvidia. With returns exceeding a staggering 193%, this chipmaker's ascent has placed it tantalizingly close to a coveted $1 trillion market capitalization. However, what sets Nvidia apart from the elite group of trillion-dollar giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon is not just its valuation but the unique narrative it weaves in the world of high-tech stocks. Valuation, the compass by which a company's worth is gauged, encompasses a diverse array of metrics. From comparing share prices to earnings, revenue, or cash flow, valuation serves as a yardstick for a company's potential and growth trajectory. When investing in a stock, investors are essentially placing a bet on the company's future growth, leading to stock prices that often reflect anticipated potential rather than current value. In essence, investors are willing to pay a premium over a company's present value in anticipation of its future evolution. This concept is quantified through ratios like the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, which illustrates the relationship between a company's stock price and its earnings per share. For instance, a company with earnings per share of $1 and a stock price of $10 would have a P/E multiple of 10. The context in which a stock's multiple is analyzed - its historical trends, peer comparisons, and broader market benchmarks - helps determine whether it is over- or undervalued. Legendary investor Warren Buffett employs a value investing strategy, seeking stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. On the contrary, some investors are willing to pay a premium for companies poised for explosive growth. Nvidia's valuation, when assessed based on earnings and sales, surpasses even the largest market giants. This doesn't necessarily denote a buy or sell signal. Instead, potential investors should embark on a two-fold exploration, say investment experts. 1. Scrutinize the Hype Unlike meme stocks, Nvidia's surge is grounded in fundamental conviction. Investors are flocking to the stock due to their unwavering belief in the chipmaker's core business. The underpinning driving this fervor? Nvidia's potential role as a primary beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. As the dominant force in graphics processing units (GPUs), crucial for running AI operations in the cloud, Nvidia is poised to capitalize on the AI wave. This conviction solidified further when OpenAI introduced the viral ChatGPT chatbot, leading to widespread recognition and intensifying interest in AI investment. Investors are essentially making a calculated bet on Nvidia's potential to validate its present valuation through substantial future growth. 2. Brace for Volatility Believers in Nvidia's long-term potential must be prepared for a rollercoaster ride of price volatility. Investing in high-growth stocks entails the willingness to endure significant fluctuations for future gains. Particularly during market downturns, stocks with lofty valuations often bear the brunt of the impact. In the event that a company's anticipated future takes an unexpected turn, such high-growth stocks can experience rapid declines. This inherent volatility underscores the importance of resilience and a long-term perspective. History offers valuable insights; Apple, for example, underwent multiple drawdowns exceeding 80% between 1991 and 1997, as well as between 2000 and 2003. However, these downturns eventually transformed into entry points for astute investors. To safeguard against such precipitous declines and optimize portfolio performance, experts advocate building a core portfolio of diversified exchange-traded funds and mutual funds. This balanced approach can help mitigate the potential impact of individual stock fluctuations. As Nvidia continues its exhilarating journey in the stock market, investors are advised to approach this high-growth opportunity with a blend of caution, conviction, and a diversified strategy. The grand finale of 2023 awaits, unveiling whether Nvidia's trajectory will align with its lofty valuation and redefine its place in the ever-evolving landscape of tech giants.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by FOREXN1
20
Palantir - Fear Worshippers of The All Seeing EyeI have to say that Palantir is a really difficult chart to read. On the one hand, looking at monthly bars, it's the kind of pattern which indicates new highs are in store. Weekly bars are about the same. Nothing about this says you can short. And its only that there's some divergences on the daily. But those divergences are really meaningful. However, at the same time, although it's up some 220%+ from the bottom, the bottom did take out the IPO low, which is not bullish. And these high prices are coming at a time when the Nasdaq and the SPX may very well have topped, which I address in my latest call: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg Palantir is a company that is ostensibly a key component of the panopticon surveillance network that underlines the International Rules Based Order's version of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit system. At least, this is what rightists would tell you. If you asked the people behind the West's implementation of social credit, they would say they just seek to advance an enlightened society while keeping stability and security under control, and big data collection is crucial to that. Well, if you ask CCP members, they would tell you the same thing, just coated in Marxist jargon. And therein lies the problem. Mankind needs to return to its 5,000 year old traditions, which were reared and established over China's long dynasties, instead of trying to go Big Atheism and reinvent The Wheel. Regardless of if Palantir at its current $37 billion valuation is a part of the future or a part of the past and gone with the wind, the last three months of trading have been totally one directional. Which makes wanting to get short very deadly. However, conditions for a short setup that is at least a scalp were formed with the July high on the 19th. The reason for this is that price swept a key level and was met with a stiff rejection, taking a pivot. All on its own, in the stock market with the way it just likes to go uppy or grind sideways, this makes shorting or puts hard, still. But what we saw is daily candles double bottom at precisely $16.00, with Friday's trading session being yet another big green gainer on the back of such a bottom. And so, as Buffet said, one should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful. So the trade is to short somewhere between where we closed on Friday and over $18. When another dump occurs, where it dumps to will tell us everything about the future. If Palantir is truly bullish to more upside, it will preserve the June low at $13.56. If it's really bullish, it should even preserve the July low at $14.62 If it's bullish, but is going to take until 2024 to go higher, we can expect prices under $12. If it's bearish, prices under $11 are the target, with an all time low on deck and about to hit everyone on the face. Which do I think is the most likely? Frankly, probably a dump under $15 and a new high in August. There's no other way to put it or look at it at the moment. For things to be different, you'd need something like a banking crisis to intervene in the markets, a prospect I undertake here: Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? I believe that, all things considered, the risk side of the trade right now is people who are longing this top, regarding it as a dip to buy, expecting more highs. Because people have capitulated, become greedy, and have taken their eyes off the clock. You should remember that you're just standing in an equities bear market rally while central banks have their key rates pinned over 5% and no intention to cut. This is bad news for stocks, and yet people are being told indexes are set to make a new all time high. Repricing to the downside can come violently, aggressively, be gappy, and will give those on the wrong side of the trade no chance to get out. Be very careful.
NYSE:PLTRLong
by LordWrymouth
4
NDVA Surges After JPMorgan's 'Massive Shift' in AII couldn't contain my excitement when I heard about the recent development that has sent shockwaves through the industry. Brace yourselves, as this news might be the golden opportunity we've been waiting for! Just yesterday, JPMorgan, one of the world's leading financial institutions, made a groundbreaking announcement about a "massive shift" in its approach to artificial intelligence (AI). And guess whose stock soared to new heights as a result? You guessed it right! NVIDIA Corporation (NDVA)! This remarkable turn of events has created a buzz in the market, and it's not hard to see why. JPMorgan's decision to embrace AI technology on such a grand scale indicates this sector's immense potential and profitability. With NDVA already being a key player in AI, it's no wonder their stock shot up like a rocket! Now, you might wonder, "What's the next move, and how can I benefit from this exciting development?" Well, my friends, I firmly believe it's time to go long on NDVA! With JPMorgan's endorsement and the growing demand for AI solutions, we are looking at a potential goldmine here. So, without further ado, let's seize this opportunity and take advantage of the momentum surrounding NDVA. By going long on this stock, we position ourselves to ride the wave of success that lies ahead. It's time to trust our instincts and make a move that could yield substantial returns. As always, conducting thorough research and exercising sound judgment is crucial before making any investment decisions. However, given the recent news and the positive market sentiment, it's hard not to feel a surge of excitement about the prospects of NDVA. So, my fellow traders, let's embark on this thrilling journey together and capitalize on the exciting developments in the AI sector. Please consider going long on NDVA and join me in embracing this opportunity.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bryandowningqln
2
Nvidia -> Is This The Top Formation?Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nvidia 💪 Looking at the monthly timeframe you can see that after Nvidia retested previous support and the 0.786 fibonacci retracement at the $110 level, there was a solid rally towards the upside. Looking at the weekly timeframe you can see that Nvidia is still a little bit overextended and we could certainly see a weekly retest of the 0.382 fibonacci level which is perfectly lining up with previous structure. After Nvidia broke down of the rising channel a couple of days ago there was not a lot of bearish follow-through and also daily market structure is not bearish yet - I am simply waiting for a better situation on Nvidia to then look for a new trading opportunity. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by basictradingtv
39
Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, KillsFirst, I understand that Amazon had an excellent earnings report, whether analyst estimates were gamed to the downside and it was easy to beat notwithstanding. What you have to be really careful of right now is the excess greed that abounds in the markets. Greed is the thing that kills accounts the fastest, and when you blow your account, there won't be any use for TradingView anymore, and nobody will be able to have fun until you can save up to reload. I am not saying any kind of bearish commentary on Amazon, although you should have reservations on this company because a lot of its business model is just to serve as an export faucet for stuff made in the Chinese Communist Party's land. And you have to be careful with anyone whose business is tightly knit to communist China, because the International Rules Based Order is chattering disaster about "de-risking" from China. Because the narrative about "Taiwan Invasion" really means that the CCP is close to falling and everyone is thinking about how to take control of that country. But to take control of China, you need someone Chinese, which means you need a handpicked appointment from the Republic of China who will serve the globalists. All this, and the 24th year of persecution against Falun Dafa by the CCP's Jiang Zemin faction just completed on July 20. In 1999, Jiang began a full genocide and organ harvesting campaign against 100 million spiritual believers, and it's persisted to this day despite Xi Jinping never participating. In fact, Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign has been hitting the corrupt officials involved in the persecution ever since he took power in 2012. Consider that the next time you see the media going off about what a Mao Zedong Xi Jinping is. Amazon's monthly provides some clarity. The most notable thing is that the 2021-2022 distribution bars during the rest of the market's bull run indicates a proper and clear topping pattern. And despite that, price never took out the most critical of lows, the COVID pivot at $81.30. Instead, it spared it by 13 cents. Because numerology. What it means is that long term, $80 becomes a target. What's notable about price action before today's earnings report pump is that Amazon maintained the July low, albeit barely. And this creates three weekly lows of equal "support." Which also becomes a target. Bear in mind, with Nonfarm Payrolls also being tomorrow morning, you may get yourself a trade setup that looks something like what happened to AMD on Wednesday: AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed When its ER came in hot in premarket and at open, and turned into a huge sell off and red day: So the point with this call is to say that the August '22 $146 pivot may really hold. And if it doesn't hold, it might just get raided. Which makes buying the top tomorrow morning something that isn't a particularly intelligent thing to do. Worse, it means that buying the dip may be trading in the wrong direction, while selling the dump's retrace might actually be an optimal short entry. Just keep in mind that we may have as much as another 2-3% of downside left in the SPX before we retrade towards/take out the tops: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg If the markets really get blown to pieces heading into the end of Q3 in accordance with the JP Morgan collar, stuff like Amazon is going to head to a 5-handle by next year. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' You'll know the truth, in my opinion, when Amazon breaks the $125 flat bottoms, price won't come back, just like what happened with Netflix: Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives What I really want to tell you all is that life still seems stable, it seems like all there is to worry about is making money and entertainment. But our world may very well change overnight, with no warning at all. And what we've all done while the cards were still face down will be what determines who wins the pot and who loses their stack.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by LordWrymouth
NVDA consolidation inside a channelCandles for the past 3 days seem to have suggested a solid support is in place, notice how the 02nd Aug candle was rejected by the gap fill, coupled with subsequent two higher high candles. Pay attention to the upper and lowers gaps which might attract price to re-test and break those areas before moving further in its direction. The bears don't look they have enough force nor power, the bulls do look tired but not yet subsided, currently it looks as if the price is inside a bull flag while the leg led up to the consolidation is upwards, therefore the bias is the expectation of further upside to come.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by FxCloudTrader
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day. There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?" Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head. If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now. If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden. AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while. You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order. All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future. Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back. So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities. So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things: 1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point 2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down. On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings. There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings. Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot. Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135. While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD. Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money. Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year. Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
NASDAQ:AMD
by LordWrymouth
Is AI excitement creating a stock market bubble?History shapes our views and we are always seeking analogs comparable to current events. Even if we know that ‘past performance is not indicative of future performance’, we are still comforted when we draw parallels to the past. Many are now drawing parallels of the current tech enthusiasm to the dawn of the internet. The quintessential example of a ‘bubble’ occurred in the late 1990’s. Some hallmarks of that time: When companies put the suffix ‘.com’ on their names, their share prices soared. Any company can do this and it has nothing to do with any real business prospects or potential. With the absence of profits or even sales, new metrics were created to make the case for progress in businesses like webpage visits or clicks. Many of the leading internet companies did not have positive earnings but, even in the more established S&P 500 which required profitability to get included, we approached price levels of 100x earnings for many large cap names. Hundreds of billions of dollars of market capitalisation was supported by dreams of wild future profits. And for what is happening in the first half of 2023: There are companies putting ‘AI’ (artificial intelligence) into their names, but it is not yet a huge number and, alongside this, the transition of big numbers of private companies tapping the public markets has not yet happened. Additionally, companies putting AI into their names have real business reasons for doing so. Naturally, investors will look to track measures like the intensity with which firms are using AI or engaging with data. Because people remember the 2000-02 ‘Tech Bubble’ period, we doubt that investors will also then say that ‘earnings don’t matter’ or ‘revenues don’t matter’—or at least that could still be some time away. When people look at how the big indices, like the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index, are being driven higher by the largest companies, we see that all of those large companies are ‘real businesses’. They have revenues, they have cash flows, and they have earnings. It’s absolutely true that investors might look at Nvidia, as an example, and think that the multiple is too high for the growth that they expect to see—but it’s not a case where Nvidia is selling the dream of making a chip one day. Nvidia chips exist, they are sold, and Nvidia is the clear leader in providing the graphics processing units (GPUs) that allow AI to run. Even if the market could very well be ripe for a near-term correction after a nearly 6-month run, and even if that run was accompanied by a hype cycle in AI, we are not seeing signals that the broad technology focused stocks are in bubble territory. Let’s look at some numbers During the ‘Tech Bubble’ investors decided to not consider the classic statistics. We will not make that mistake here. We create a view of the ‘Expanded Tech’ sector. Companies like Meta Platforms and Alphabet are in ‘Communication Services.’ Amazon.com (even accounting for that .com suffix) is in ‘Consumer Discretionary’. Information Technology includes Microsoft and Apple. If we use this ‘Expanded Tech’ designation, we capture a broader cross section of technology.1 In 1998-2000, roughly speaking, this index was hitting a forward P/E ratio2 of more than 55x. The initial run up was based on prices and euphoria—the second spike into the 50x range would have been from the quick drop in forward earnings expectations when the popping of the bubble was clear. Looking at what the same Index is currently trading at in terms of forward P/E present, it is still below 30x. 28.4x is not ‘cheap’, so we are not seeking to indicate that tech is currently cheap in any way. Back in 2000, real interest rates were higher. However, we would note that this multiple expansion has occurred alongside a higher interest rate environment—not always an easy feat for stocks to achieve. Back in 2000, when the tech sector was over 55x forward earnings, real interest rates (measured by TIPS bonds) were double where they are currently. We can see how the ‘other stocks’ that are not tech have been doing by way of valuation. These other stocks never broke a 30x forward P/E ratio during the tech bubble. The current valuation of the ex-tech part of the S&P 500 is at 16.7x, and is very close to the average over the full period. This is not ‘cheap’, but certainly not getting into the more expensive territory. The bottom line: a bubble is not just ‘a bit expensive’ but, rather, a bubble represents a situation where there is a clear case that prices have gone extremely far beyond fundamentals. Forcing ourselves back to a classic figure, forward P/E ratio, we don’t see evidence of that being the case. Dealing with the AI hype cycle Still, we understand that performance in thematic equities can come in waves. One way to deal with these waves is to allocate to certain themes and then recognise that, over a cycle (something closer to 10 years than 5 years), there are going to be periods of strongly positive and strongly negative returns. In many cases, knowing whether the themes are working or not is something completely different from looking at the share price performance. What we know today is that, in the current quarter, Nvidia is expecting revenues in the range of $11 billion USD3. It will be critical to watch that trajectory, which then indicates a 12-month run rate above $40 billion. Do we actually see that materialise? Similarly, companies like Microsoft and Alphabet will continue to talk about the topic and launch new options for their customers. These are the kinds of things that we can honestly see and monitor. Signals of a greater degree of froth could entail seeing a much more robust IPO (initial public offering) market in specific AI companies, which may happen in the future but is not here yet. We are not saying that one day there cannot ultimately be a bubble—we are all still human, and human behaviours create bubbles—but what we are seeing at this moment is not yet there. Sources 1 This is akin to older definitions of the section before GICs made some changes to internet and communications stocks. 2 P/E ratio = price to earnings ratio. 3 Source: Factset, as of Nvidia’s earnings guidance given on their Q1 2023 earnings call. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NDQ100
by aneekaguptaWTE
Nasdaq - Buy targets before continuation.I am eagerly anticipating Nasdaq to hit these targets. Once at least one of the two targets is achieved, I'll consider buying more stocks. If the second target also proves correct, I'll be even more inclined to invest further. After these targets have been hitted I expect a move towards ATH and beyond. It could take some months for these targets to play out depending if both of them will get hitted or not. I would say 3-6 months is reasonable. Good luck out there.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by WealthNode
Meta - To Long, Or To Short?I have to say that Meta is one of the hardest charts that exist to read right now, mostly because for 9 straight months, an unprecedented feat in the history of Facebook, it has gone up in a straight line, and bigly. You only see it clearly on the monthly: And yet the problem with the bull thesis for a new all time high is the '22 bear raid took out all the sell side all of the way back to 2016. Although you can have, and speculators and hodlers have been fortunate enough to have had, a significant retrace afterwards, stocks taking long term lows is usually kind of like when a person turns 50 and starts urinating blood. It means something is wrong with an organ and the time they have left to live is not so long and not so bright. Even the weekly is insanely one-directional This stock will have attention tomorrow as post-market earnings have produced another $20 gain, but notably, as of time of writing, have brought the price only to $319, still underneath the July high. Geopolitical risks abound in the markets right now. Much is happening with Mainland China and the International Rules Based Order. You can consult my previous calls, which are below, for my thoughts on the situation. But the Cliff's Notes of it is that the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Gong by the Jiang Zemin faction and the CCP may soon be made public worldwide if President Xi weaponizes those sins to protect China, its 5,000-year-old culture, and himself from the IRBO intending a Maidan Revolution-style coup to replace him with someone from Taiwan that happens to be a fine lapdog to the global regime's interests. What is the bull thesis for Meta? Facebook is something of a panopticon data collection system and advertising network rolled into the guise of a social media platform where people voluntarily disclose their location, interests, likes, connections, and spend time interacting with friends and family. Meta's rebrand is to force the world into something of a Nintendo 64-level version of Second Life, where you're supposed to literally sit in your cube eating the cricket crackers under a bunch of blankets with the furnace/AC off with the VR headset strapped to your face while you do data entry all day. It's really the kind of dystopian thing the Chinese Communist Party really likes, because it means you can be submissive and agreeable slaves that don't threaten its stability and still produce work. If mankind's future is truly to return to tradition (it is), what place does Meta have in it? Meta has very little place in the future, and that's a fundamental problem, really, for everything that revolves around people living chained to computers and phones. A really notable thing is that the Chinese Government, especially under Xi Jinping since he took power in 2013, has not allowed Meta/Facebook to set up shop inside Mainland China. The world's most notorious totalitarian regime and the creator of social credit and censorship does not want Meta/Facebook's influence impacting their citizens. Ain't that something. And yet, you're supposed to be bullish on this... because it's going up. You just want something to go up so you can buy it and feel pleased when you see green, not sell, and then feel sad when you see red, red, red, and are liquidated. This is modern humanity. So here's the question with Meta: is it a short, or is it a long? The truth is that with Meta, it's gone up in the kind of straight line that makes Apple blush for 9 straight months. When something trades like this, you can never say "it's a short." Instead, you can watch for when it does become a short. And we're in the zone. Although the biggest gap has been filled, the monthly candles show that the bodies of the winning streak's candles are still respecting the range created by the February of 2022 doom candle that ended the Party. On the daily, the last five days of price action, which correspond with a Nasdaq that may very well have topped but an SPX that does not seem to have topped yet, are the most bearish they have been during the entire bull run. And so, if you want to get long on open, I can only encourage you to exercise caution. You may really have upside as high as $343. But you may also have upside no higher than $325. It may also gap up on market open and then sell off, and that kind of a sell off at this kind of a time may mean you are trapped. To confirm a bull thesis, $343 needs to be broken and maintained To confirm a bear thesis, the first thing we need to see after the earnings manipulation is for the $288.30 double bottom to be broken. From there, if $258.88 is broken, the trend is over and will have reversed, even though you may see further upside in the interim. A break over $325 and then a rejection under $288 would be the most bearish. If that unfolds, it's no longer a dip to buy. Instead, long term puts while the VIX is so suppressed might really be really, really valuable. And the problem for both bears and bulls is the $40 range that "confirms" whether there's forever uppy or forever doom.
NASDAQ:META
by LordWrymouth
1
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present. You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish. And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top. Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious. The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top. Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly: Only sweep the All Time High? Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did? Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT: In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past. Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice. The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment. The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide". Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time. If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life. Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year). The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire. Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time. Much to do before the call's key points. Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead: SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It? Back to MSFT: This is a very hard setup to trade Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22) Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy But the short may only take us to the $320 range. Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all. Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is. After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH. But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT. Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers. When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by LordWrymouth
1
NVIDIA LONG Cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are two of the hottest trends in tech, and will likely remain so for a while. And Nvidia is already successfully tapping into both of them with its graphics processing units (GPUs). Tech companies of all sizes rely on high-powered GPUs for some of the most complex cloud-computing processing, and many of them choose Nvidia's chips. The company's data center business has expanded as a result and now accounts for about 60% of the company's total sales. In the most recent quarter, data center revenue rose 11% to $3.6 billion, nearly doubling the segment's sales from two years ago. Just as data center sales slowly became the largest narrative in Nvidia's growth story, AI is now beginning to play a larger part as well. When OpenAI's ChatGPT burst onto the tech scene months ago, it showed not just how far along AI large-language models are, but it also shined a light on the fact that tech companies will soon need massive processing power for AI-focused services. The good thing is that Nvidia has already been working with tech businesses, including Amazon, Alphabet's Google, and Microsoft, to use its hardware for AI purposes. And that focus will build on its long-term prospects. The company believes it has a total addressable market of HKEX:150 billion in the AI space, and the popularity of ChatGPT -- which amassed 100 million monthly active users in just two months -- helped show that AI isn't just a theoretical market anymore. M< STRATEGY SET UP LONG PT 541$ IF 170-190 BUY AGAIN IF 150-170 2ND Buy below 130 SHORT SETUP
CAPITALCOM:NVDALong
by DaveBrascoFX
6
Nvidia longAI tokens add $17 billion in 24 hours as Nvidia market cap hits $1 trillion Nvidia market capitalization touched $1 trillion before NVDA declined to $401. Nvidia became the fifth company in the US to achieve this milestone after Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. AI crypto tokens, including The Graph and Ocean Protocol, rose significantly, with the latter noting a 12% rally The Nvidia stock, NVDA, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) hype continue to power gains across the Traditional Finance (TradFi) and the Crypto market. With the US-based company hitting a major milestone over the last 24 hours, AI tokens also enjoyed the ensuing bullishness. Nvidia nears the big leagues Nvidia’s stock NVDA is still continuing its rise nearly a week after the historic rally observed on May 25. The company’s share price soared by more than 4% during the intra-day trading hours on May 30, which resulted in the market capitalization of Nvidia crossing the $1 trillion mark. This rally was short-lived, however, as the stock came back down to close at a 3% increase at $401 from the highs of $419 and was still losing value in the after-hours, falling to $398 at the time of writing. For a brief moment, Nvidia became only the fifth publicly traded company in the United States to hit the trillion dollar market cap, following Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google’s parent company - Alphabet. The main reason behind this phenomenal rally was the response to its positive financial reports and ongoing AI hype over the last couple of days. This led to the 24% increase on May 25, subsequently impacting the crypto market as the bullishness was not just limited to the TradFi market. The cross-market effects of Nvidia’s achievement could still be seen on May 30 when AI tokens observed a rally following the news of NVDA’s $1 trillion market cap.
CAPITALCOM:NVDALong
by DaveBrascoFX
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long HedgeAt present, the US equities markets are at a critical inflection point, especially tech. We're still in the bear side of a correction in an extremely major bull market impulse fuelled by Party Central's COVID stimulus programs, and yet flirting with all time highs. Sometimes markets top without a blow off. Nasdaq's daily chart, above, shows price raided the 16,000 psychological level and the January 2022 pivot that ended the bull market. This is really significant in and of itself, but even more significant in that the 3% rejection thus far indicates that tech *may* have truly topped already. In my recent call on NVIDIA, some people correctly criticized that I have the problem of being bearish when a stock is clearly bullish. I have thought about this quite a bit and think the criticism is fair. With NVIDIA, I believe the stock has either topped or will top before/at $500 in a coming impulse. However, if one had have just gone long on the dips from low $400s to the $480 mark, they could have financed a freeroll "Short God From The Top" dream trade with potentially huge upside. And that brings us to Taiwan Semiconductor, a company that I believe is a clear long on all time frames and has several significant advantages: 1. It's Taiwan's gemstone and thus highly relevant to the geopolitical concerns I will outline below 2. Producer of much of the world's most advanced chips 3. Market cap still under $500 billion (Thus, room to 2 or 3x in the future) 4. Is not a component of the Nasdaq, the SPX, the Dow, or the Russell, and thus can impulse long even if the equities market corrects 5. Accounts for only 3.4% of the index the SOXX/SOXL/SOXS ETFs underlie, and thus can impulse long even if the semiconductor industry corrects sharply 6. Washington is banning NVIDIA and ASML from selling to China, but never mentions TSM 7. If TSM pulls out the "AI" marketing card with a new offering, watch out for fire. In previous posts I have mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party is about to fall. While people may find that unbelievable or too good to be true, it's worth noting that when the USSR was brought down by Gorbachev and friends on Christmas Day 1992, nobody believed it was possible then either. Those of us who are old enough to remember know you woke up one day to see it all over the news and nobody knew how it would happen. Many entities are considering how to take control of China and its 5,000 year old culture, history, natural resources, and land when the Party falls. The International Rules Based Order wants China for its own reasons, and the reason "Washington" has made itself so close to Taiwan isn't because Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan (The CCP is too weak after so many people died from Wuhan Pneumonia), but because the IRBO intends to use The Republic of China to replace the Communist Party for its own ends. The ultimate purpose is to install genuine communism (note the CCP only still practices socialism according to its own dogma) worldwide via panopticon social credit systems and central bank digital currencies. If you want a future you and your family can live in, you want our traditions, imparted by God, and not this junk imparted by Karl Marx and the specters that belied him. I've mentioned before that Xi, an ostensible Chinese nationalist, has the option of weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the 100 million practitioners of the Falun Gong/Falun Dafa spiritual cultivation practice by the faction of his predecessor Jiang Zemin and the CCP in order to ensnare the IRBO and its banking cartel. However, all of the world's critical pieces (Yellen, Musk, Kissinger, Dimon) visiting Beijing "for talks" combining with a recent significant strengthening of the yuan and a potential recovery of China tech stocks indicates that the IRBO is now onside with the Xi administration. Which means that Xi may have sold out China and the future in a Faustian Pact with the IRBO in order to maintain his power, because he's too much of an idiot to throw away the CCP, return to China's 5,000 years of dynasties, and enter the future. Either way, once there's some kind of news cycle about "Taiwan" (just go look at all the war clamoring that appeared this month in The Economist et al), TSM can moon no matter what the rest of the equities market does, and counts as an excellent long hedge during catastrophe. I can only say that if you go long, especially significantly long, on anything right now, you really ought to be hedging volatility long while the VIX is maintaining a 13-handle. So here's the trade. TSM dumped some 6% on earnings under $98, which is a hell of a dip to buy. It's a dip to buy because daily price action on the way up stopped just short of the curiously-numbered $111.11 (the Chinese are extremely numerological/superstitious), which naturally makes this figure a target for a retrace It's only that on the hourly, TSM doesn't show any signs of having bottomed beyond not making a lower low on the first day. But with the biggest FOMC of the year on Wednesday, July 26 (big hike possible, next meeting not until Q3 end September 20), longing today may have been too early. But not too early by much. Arguably only 3%. The most bullish continuation for TSM would be to maintain a "higher low" formation, protecting the wick of the June low at $94.25. Upside targets are immediately $113+ (Masonry, roar?) and $130 (Masonry, rawr!) if bearish. If all things Taiwan become memefied like artificial intelligence did because of what's going on in China, then there's little to stop TSM from becoming a $1 Trillion market cap company like NVIDIA et al, which would actually mean upside over $200 is in the cards through the 2024 Presidential Election. But mankind's best laid plans are merely those of mice. This race is like bacteria and this planet is little more than a speck of dust when viewed from higher places in the enormous and boundless Cosmos we currently sit in. What the Cosmos looks at is a race, a planet, and an individual's moral standard and spiritual realm. Thus, the more calamity is on deck the more critical it is to take good care of your family and friends and use the time that we all have left before the world changes forever to make up for the things from the past that have been done wrong, when they should have been done well. Take good care of yourselves.
NYSE:TSMLong
by LordWrymouth
1
NVDIA 4HR- Pull back Very LikelySorry for the small screen, but this is pretty straightforward. Bearish Divergence on MACD (not shown cause screen size) along with price action showing slowed momentum when trying to push through the very local high ie. Double top. I would try to catch the bounce at the EMA and or anything within the 0.326-0.618 fib retrace area for all you swing traders out there. Simple, predictable price action. You shall respect the TA, while the weak fall down the wayside. -b
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by BShellhammer
A Negative Month at these Levels Could Signal NVDA Down to $196We are at a point where NVDA is trading at a Macro Monthly Bearish ABCD PCZ and all the Oscillators are sitting in overbought zones. If NVDA sees a negative monthly candle at these levels, it is very likely that these Oscillators will begin to come down again and signal Potential Bearish Action ahead; if we get such a signal at these levels, then I would typically aim for it to go back down to the level of C of the ABCD as a Minimum Target; but given how high this is and how profitable even a 61.8% retrace would be, I will opt to target the 61.8% retrace instead down at $196.32 as it nicely fits into my typical 3:1 risk to reward requirement.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by RizeSenpai
8
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'Over the last two quarters, financial social media has cared a lot about the "JPM Collar," a series of very large options trades that JP Morgan uses in one of the funds it offers its clients. The theory for speculators is that the JPM collar will be used to constrict the market within a certain range. But as for how that plays out, it's hard for a trader to anticipate, especially amid the daily chop. The levels are on the chart and you can reference them yourself. Below is a print of monthly bars, which is easier to see since I have to compress the TradingView chart to make the bars work: If you're not familiar options, the general idea is this: These options blocks expire September 29 JPM will lose a lot of money if price is over 4,665 or starts to approach 4,665, especially if it happens right away JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 3,550, especially if it happens right away JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 4,215, especially if it happens right away But a nuance of being long 4,215 calls is that if price is significantly over 4,215 by September, they will make a lot of money on their calls. Geopolitical Risks Before we begin, I'll warn you, as I do in every post, that the geopolitical situation is tense. NATO is at war with the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine and the International Rules Based Order is always talking about "de-risking, but not decoupling" from Mainland China under President Xi Jinping. The risk for markets is, short of a situation where a tectonic/geothermal event surprises everyone and causes the crash of crashes, is that Xi gets up one night and throws away the Chinese Communist Party. Since Beijing business hours are New York night, you'll wake up to quite the gap down that will be hard to recover from, for the Chinese Communist Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its cronies are guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. The Call The most most notable thing about price action is as June closed, range equilibrium between the June high and the October low is exactly 4,000.00 points. Something else I stumbled upon when preparing for this post is that when comparing the Dow, Nasdaq, and SPX futures monthly bars, the three have completely converged. This is the first time since the **2022 top** that this has happened. You can see it on the weekly as well There used to be quite the delta, which allowed for stock picking and trading. If you ask me, what three memelines coming together all at once means is that the markets reached peak overbought, and genuine "overbought" isn't something you can see with an indicator. The daily shows this really only manifested in June. There are some problems with more uppy, as I explain in my calls below on the VIX, which needs to go up so that whales can go back to collecting free money selling volatility: VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude (But note that under the current conditions being summer and we're not that bearish right now, we may only see VIX 50) And the fact that the Nasdaq is just so far away from its trendline that going more parabolic is hard to believe. Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal I don't normally call exact areas, but I put a white box with a dolphin because I think price is going there, and will do so fast, like, mid-August fast. That box means 3,778~. This means JPM will be green on out of the money calls, red on its own calls, and red on the 3,550 puts. But JPM doesn't lose money to begin with because they're hedged and will be compensating for the drawdown in other ways, like the alpha they'll generate from going big block long in the dumps under 4,000. The other advantage is it will trap bears who think it's finally the apocalypse they've long been awaiting for the ponzi to go to zero, and they'll buy puts and buy puts even though the iVol is insane from VIX being over 50. Once the craziness is done, the markets will recover, and whoever sold will probably by trapped. So, be careful out there. Wall Street's best laid plans can be blown to pieces in an hour by Heaven, for men are no better than mice in this boundless Cosmos.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
6