Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Continues Bearish TrendNvidia (NVDA) Share Price Continues Bearish Trend
Earlier this month, our analysis of NVDA's share price led us to:
→ Establish a downward channel (marked in red).
→ Suggest that the lower boundary could act as support, which was confirmed (circled).
On 13 March, we anticipated the median line of this channel might serve as resistance, and yesterday’s ~5% drop in NVDA’s share price (marked by a red arrow) aligns with this scenario.
As a result, NVDA’s price has declined by approximately 17% since the start of 2025, despite being a market leader in 2024.
Why Did Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Drop Yesterday?
Market sentiment turned negative amid concerns that the Trump administration may soon impose previously delayed international trade tariffs.
Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Chinese regulators are encouraging firms to adopt data centre chips that meet stringent environmental standards. This raises concerns that Nvidia’s H20 chip, despite complying with U.S. export controls, may not meet China’s environmental regulations. Investors seemingly viewed this as a bearish signal for Nvidia’s future sales in China.
Technical Analysis of Nvidia’s Share Price
Currently, NVDA’s price is encountering resistance at the bullish gap formed on 12 March, around $112.50.
Given the broader market context, this setup could indicate an attempt by bears to resume the downtrend after a temporary rebound from oversold conditions. A consolidation pattern in the form of a narrowing triangle (marked in red) has also emerged.
If market conditions remain challenging, bears may push NVDA’s price towards the psychologically significant $100 level.
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Nvidiatrading
Nvdia has a new Aggressor.The boxes you are observing are the Larger scale supply and demand zones. These areas map out the current large liquidity. This includes the newest Player (collective players). This new player has been aggressively on the 17th and 18th.
Why does identifying a new aggressor matter?
New aggressors shape the way we view previous areas of supply and demand. Some look at the price getting to their target, without giving any thought to HOW it gets there.
In this instance:
Previous supply and demand have been established (we do not know how big they are or who is stronger). Some clues we do have is how it approaches these areas, and new aggressors can give us the clues we need... Will it bounce off demand? or fulfill it and continue lower?
New aggressors can put more pressure on these Demand or supply zones simply because they are becoming more aggressive closer to these areas.
Prediction
Scenario 1
Rolling over, and touching the 106 demand zone. Get's bought up, and new aggressors presents themself (bringing more demand). Price Target = 123.
If there is continued demand through this area, a case can be made for a 138 target before a correction/ reversal.
Scenario 2
New demand chews up this new aggressor. We should then have a bullish run to 131. 131 would present itself as a great short-term options (short).
Scenario 3
Rolling over with NEW (short) aggressors. This will put tons of pressure on the 106 players, and hopefully the 96's hang on (not charted).
Please feel free to share you input, thank you for taking the time.
Happy Trading!
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Vertical lines are colored and placed to indicate the expected direction of the price. Just my thoughts.
NVIDIA: Megaphone bottomed. Rally to $195 starting.NVIDIA is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.183, MACD = -6.220, ADX = 39.717) as it reach the bottom (LL) trendline of the Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since November 21st 2024. This is not the first time we see NVDA inside such Megaphone pattern. As a matter of fact, it was during July-October 2023 when it last did so. The 3rd LL was the buy signal and it coincided with a Triple Bottom on the 1D RSI. This is the exact position we are at right now. The stock has completed three lows below the 1D MA50 and looks ready to rebound with force. The smallest recent rally has been +86.41%. The trade is long, TP = 195.00.
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NVIDIA Local UptrendNVIDIA in Local Uptrend on the 1-Hour Chart
NVIDIA made a higher high on the 1-hour chart, so we are in a local uptrend. It’s possible that we’ll see a higher low next, and then move up to a new higher high, or we could continue going higher right now.
If tomorrow the 4-hour candle close stays above $126.63 (yellow line) and holds that level, then we’ll have gained that support. In that case, we are back in the big range with the potential to reach $148.
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NVIDIA: Crashed on the 1D MA200 after 2 years. Last stand.NVIDIA is approaching oversold valuations on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.351, MACD = -0.820, ADX = 27.301) following the DeepSeek news and breached its 1D MA200 for the first time in 2 years. It was January 13th 2023 when we last saw the price trading on this trendline. The 1W MA50 is just a click under and there is no other way to put it than this being NVDA's last hold. The stock is at -23% from its ATH and the pattern that has to hold in order to provide an immediate rebound is the Megaphone whose LL trendline we just hit today. As long as this holds and the 1D RSI starts reversing near the oversold level, NVIDIA should technically test the 153.00 Resistance in a month or so. Failure to hold this pattern and a weekly candle closing under the 1W MA50, may result in a bubble burst and test of the 101.50 and 91.50 support levels.
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Nvidia at $220 in 2025 ?Key Drivers for NVIDIA's Growth:
Surging AI Demand: NVIDIA's GPUs are integral to training sophisticated AI models. The company's latest Blackwell GPUs are sold out for the next 12 months due to unprecedented demand from major tech companies, underscoring NVIDIA's pivotal role in AI advancements.
Data Center Expansion: NVIDIA's data center revenue has experienced remarkable growth, with a 409% increase driven by the escalating need for AI chips. This trend highlights the company's dominance in the data center GPU market.
Strategic Collaborations: NVIDIA's involvement in Project Stargate, a significant U.S. AI infrastructure initiative led by SoftBank and OpenAI, is expected to drive future revenue and alleviate concerns about peak compute demand, contributing to NVIDIA's long-term growth.
Analyst Confidence: The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a "Strong Buy" rating for NVIDIA, with an average 12-month price target of $176.86, indicating a 20.3% upside from the current price.
Bullish Price Target:
Considering these factors, a bullish price target for NVIDIA over the next 12 months could easily be $220. This projection aligns with the high forecast among analysts and reflects confidence in NVIDIA's sustained growth trajectory.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's strategic positioning in the AI sector, robust data center growth, and strong market sentiment make it a promising investment for those seeking exposure to the burgeoning AI industry.
Please note that this is just my view and is not financial advice.
Nvidia: FluctuationOver the past two weeks, NVDA has exhibited increased fluctuation within the boundaries of the current key levels: the resistance at $152.89 and the support at $126.34. Initially, the price seemed to favor our alternative scenario, but it managed to reverse just in time. Following a dip to $129, the stock rebounded swiftly. Our primary assumption remains that the beige wave III should eventually break above the $152.89 resistance. However, there is still a 33% chance that the expected rises will be delayed by a new low of the blue wave alt.(IV). This alternative scenario will prevail if the stock falls below the $126.34 support level.
NVIDIA Possible Outlook Next week 1-13-25This stock has still upside potential. As for right now this was a much needed retest to continue to the upside. If we see a closure below the last weekly zone. We could expect a further drop down to show us support but not currently looking for that just yet. Just keeping it mind.
BUY NVDA (130-135)NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently trading within a well-defined channel and is approaching a strong support zone between $130 and $135, a level where buyers have historically stepped in. The recent rejection from the $155 resistance suggests a potential rebound from the lower range. This setup provides a bullish trade opportunity, with an entry around $130-$135 and a target of $170, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. A stop-loss below $125 is recommended to manage risk.
Signal:
Buy Zone: $130 - $135
Target Price: $170
Stop-Loss: $125
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Nvidia: Nvidia is still at the top!In the daily timeframe, Nudia stock is above EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its upward channel. In case of valid failure of the support range, we can see the downward trend of this share. On the other hand, within the demand zone, you can make purchases for investment purposes with a suitable risk reward.
The stocks of the seven tech giants, often referred to as the Magnificent 7, have grown approximately 30 times over the past decade—more than twice the growth seen in any previous market bubble. Notably, the term “Magnificent 7” was first coined by a Bank of America analyst in early 2023. Therefore, no one could have exclusively invested in these companies a decade ago, as this categorization didn’t exist at the time.
To compare this growth with other market indices, we can look at the Nasdaq 100 in the 1990s, which grew 12 times before the dot-com bubble burst.A significant part of this recent growth is attributed to the surging stock price of NVIDIA. The company has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest by market value. Since 2019, NVIDIA’s stock has skyrocketed by 3,776%, creating unprecedented wealth among its employees:
• 78% of employees are now millionaires.
• Half of them possess assets worth over $25 million.
However, behind these massive payouts lies a relentless work culture. Employees have reported working seven-day weeks and shifts at 2 AM. The current challenge is motivating “semi-retired” employees whose wealth has diminished their engagement levels. Despite this, NVIDIA maintains an employee turnover rate of just 2.7%, compared to the industry average of 17.7%. The company also ranked second in Glassdoor’s “Best Places to Work” for 2024.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has stated that the performance of the company’s AI chips is advancing faster than the historical rates defined by Moore’s Law. Speaking at CES in Las Vegas to an audience of 10,000, Huang told TechCrunch, “Our systems are advancing much faster than Moore’s Law.”
Moore’s Law, introduced in 1965 by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, predicted that the number of transistors on a chip would roughly double every year, effectively doubling the chip’s performance. This prediction held true for decades, driving rapid advancements and cost reductions, but the trend has slowed in recent years. However, Huang claims that NVIDIA’s AI chips are advancing at an even faster rate. He further announced that the company’s new data center superchip is over 30 times faster than its predecessor for AI inference tasks.
Huang added, “We can design the architecture, chip, system, libraries, and algorithms simultaneously. If you do that, you can move faster than Moore’s Law.”
He also revealed that MediaTek, a Taiwan-based semiconductor company and one of the largest producers of chipsets for mobile devices and other electronics, is now leveraging NVIDIA’s technology for its products. Huang praised MediaTek’s expertise in designing system-on-chip (SoC) solutions, stating that this collaboration could drive significant technological advancements and innovation.
At CES, Huang introduced new products and highlighted the emerging concept of “physical AI” as the next frontier in artificial intelligence. This domain includes humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, both requiring advanced processing chips like those NVIDIA provides. Analysts predict that by 2050, there will be approximately 648 million humanoid robots worldwide, all relying on complex models to navigate the world.
To sustain its growth, NVIDIA is focusing on expanding into new addressable markets (TAMs) while increasing its share in the AI chip market. Huang noted that physical AI is reaching a transformative moment similar to what ChatGPT achieved.
Another Year, Another Ride on the Nvidia Train– Bullish for 2025Bullish Reasons for Nvidia:
AI Growth: Nvidia’s GPUs are the backbone of AI infrastructure, powering the booming AI market and ensuring long-term demand.
Market Dominance: With 80-90% control of the AI chip market, Nvidia’s market share positions it as a dominant player with staying power.
Microsoft’s $80B Investment: Nvidia is poised to reap the rewards of Microsoft’s massive AI data center investment, cementing its role in the AI revolution.
Bank of America’s "Top Pick": As Bank of America’s top pick heading into CES 2025, Nvidia is set for game-changing announcements that could propel growth even further.
Analyst Optimism: With analysts setting a $177 target price, Nvidia’s upside potential is highly regarded by the market.
Impressive YOY Growth: Nvidia has posted 53% YOY revenue growth, driven by 61% growth in data centers and 101% growth in gaming. Its 90% increase in earnings per share showcases its dominance in AI and gaming sectors.
Financial Strength: With a strong balance sheet and solid cash flow, Nvidia is well-positioned to continue expanding its influence in AI and technology innovation.
Trade Plan:
Entry: $147.50 (pre-market price)
TP1: $160 (+8.5%)
TP2: $180 (+22.1%)
Stop Loss: $135 (-8.5%) (Consider for yourself; I'm holding without a stop loss for the long term)
Risk-Reward Ratios:
Risk to TP1: 1:1 (Risk = $12.50, Reward = $12.50)
Risk to TP2: 1:2.6 (Risk = $12.50, Reward = $32.50)
NVIDIA's Declined over 10%, Why? When will be the Buy timing? NVIDIA fell nearly 4% today before narrowing the loss to 1.22%. Since hitting a record closing high of $148.88 in early November, the AI chip maker's stock has dropped over 10%.
So, what is causing NVIDIA's decline?
Firstly, Supply Chain Issues and Challenges
NVIDIA faces multiple challenges in its supply chain, a significant factor in its stock decline.
First, according to the latest data, the order volume and schedules for the GB200 and GB300 have been adjusted. Particularly, the mass production and shipment of GB series products have been postponed until after the Lunar New Year in February, increasing market uncertainty. Additionally, the small-scale production plans for GB300 face tight deadlines, putting pressure on GB200's mass production.
Specific supply chain issues include CoWoS-L packaging technology, heating problems, copper cable connections, and leakage issues. These not only affect product yield rates but also increase system integration time costs. Consequently, NVIDIA has suggested customers purchase the B200 8-card HGX as a transitional solution, and clients like Microsoft are considering switching their orders. These supply chain issues affect NVIDIA's product delivery capabilities and reduce market expectations for its future performance.
Secondly, Market Competition and Narrative Changes
ASICs are gaining market recognition as a competitive narrative.
ASICs are chips designed for specific tasks, akin to custom running shoes for a race. For certain tasks, ASICs outperform NVIDIA's GPUs (widely used for computing tasks) and are potentially cheaper.
OpenAI co-founder Ilya and industry leaders like Microsoft's CEO Satya have started discussing the importance of not only training AI models but also ensuring they can quickly and accurately make decisions in real applications. This shift in perspective gives ASICs an advantage in some scenarios, as they are designed for rapid, precise execution of tasks.
This raises questions about the cost of NVIDIA's GPUs. While powerful, they are expensive and require significant electricity and cooling. As ASICs perform better at lower costs for some tasks, there's consideration of replacing NVIDIA's GPUs with ASICs.
Additionally, changes in scaling law narratives and the strengthening of inference narratives pose threats to NVIDIA.
Scaling laws suggest that increasing AI model size (e.g., more neurons or layers) typically improves performance, but these gains are not infinite and require significant computational resources. This means NVIDIA must continually invest resources to improve product performance, potentially increasing costs.
Moreover, companies like BTC, Tesla, and Google are investing heavily in their own AI chips or solutions. This intensifies market competition and challenges NVIDIA's leadership.
Thirdly, Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Market sentiment and capital flow significantly impact NVIDIA's stock price. As the year ends, retail investors, ETFs, and institutions adjust their portfolios. Fluctuations in tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google affect tech stocks like NVIDIA. Investors are more cautious, favoring stable, promising companies.
Given these conditions, NVIDIA faces pressure on its stock price due to supply chain issues and competition. Lowered expectations for NVIDIA's future performance lead to capital outflows and stock price declines.
Fourthly, Future Outlook and Catalysts
Despite current challenges, NVIDIA has opportunities for a turnaround.
First, NVIDIA needs to resolve supply chain issues, improve product yield, and delivery capabilities. Second, strengthening its presence in software and applications is crucial to addressing market competition. Additionally, NVIDIA should explore new computing narratives to expand its computing potential.
Fifthly, Technical Analysis and Price Divergence
Previously, prices rose continuously, but volume and KDJ began to decline, showing divergence. Without capital support, upward momentum was insufficient, leading to a short-term adjustment and a break below the mid-term trend line, resulting in a mid-term callback.
When Might a New Rally Occur?
From a technical analysis perspective: After two prior mid-term adjustments, breaking the downward trend line may signal the start of a new rally. Thus, this new rally must first break the resistance line.
From a catalyst perspective: While January's CES and the earnings release in late February may not bring major surprises, March's GTC is worth anticipating. NVIDIA needs to showcase new technologies and products at this event to restore market confidence. If NVIDIA can introduce groundbreaking innovations, a stock rebound is possible.
Nvidia: Gradual ProgressNvidia’s stock has made slight progress toward fulfilling our primary scenario. We still anticipate -wave sell-offs down to the support level at $90.69, where the blue wave (IV) correction should finally conclude. However, our alternative scenario of an already finished wave alt. (IV) remains in play. In this case, the stock would resume its ascent as part of blue wave alt. (V), pushing well above the resistance at $152.89 to reach new highs and, thus, complete the overarching green wave alt. (probability: 37%).
Long entry in NVIDIA! Fibonacci Analysis and Strategy¡Hi traders! Today, I’m sharing a long trade setup in NVIDIA (NVDA) that I’ve been watching closely. Let me walk you through my analysis and the plan I have for this entry.
Take a look at this: the Fibonacci retracement is perfectly drawn, from the recent low to the high, and now the price is reacting right at the key 0.618 level—a super important zone for potential buy entries! On top of that, the RSI is holding above 50, signaling bullish momentum with room to grow before hitting overbought conditions.
Here’s my plan:
- Entry: I’m entering now, taking advantage of the breakout and support confirmation at the 0.618 level.
- Stop Loss: I’ve set my stop slightly below the 130 level, just in case the price makes a deeper pullback.
- Take Profit:
- My first target is 154.67, which is the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
- If the bullish momentum continues, I’ll aim for 194.51 at the 1.618 extension.
What I love about this setup is that the volume doesn’t show any major weakness, and the overall trend is still intact. Of course, always remember to manage your risk—trading is all about probabilities, not guarantees.
What do you think of this trade? Would you take this long entry with me? Let me know in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe to the channel for more analysis like this. See you in the next idea, traders! 🚀📈
Disclaimer:
This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Remember, trading involves risks, and every trade should be analyzed based on your own risk profile. Always consult a professional before making financial decisions. Trade responsibly and manage your risk!
NVIDIA Analysis - Personal viewNVIDIA remains a leader in AI-driven markets, benefiting from demand for GPUs in data centers, gaming, and AI development. Its AI and machine-learning capabilities are shaping industries like autonomous vehicles and healthcare. However, valuation concerns and risks tied to macroeconomic shifts or supply chain vulnerabilities may pressure the stock.
Looking ahead to 2025, my personal target for NVIDIA lies between $200 and $250. This range reflects a cautious approach, factoring in potential earnings normalization, adjustments in investor sentiment, and the broader tech sector's resilience in an evolving economic environment.
*This is not financial advice.
NVIDIA I Set for Potential 20%+ Upside – Key Level Buy Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** NVIDIA Analysis - Listen to video!
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How Will Nvidia's Stellar Quarter Impact the Future of Tech InveNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) experienced a rollercoaster ride as investors grappled with its impressive third-quarter earnings report. While the chip giant delivered a strong performance, the market's reaction was somewhat muted, highlighting the high expectations placed on the company.
A Quarter of Record-Breaking Growth
The surge in revenue was primarily driven by the robust demand for Nvidia's high-performance GPUs, which are essential for powering artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning applications. The company's data center segment, in particular, saw exponential growth, fueled by the increasing adoption of AI in various industries.
A Cautious Market Response
Despite the impressive results, Nvidia's stock price fluctuated throughout the day. While the initial market reaction was positive, with shares rising in pre-market trading, the momentum soon faded. Some analysts attributed this to the high expectations set by Nvidia's consistent outperformance in recent quarters.
Another factor that may have influenced the market's reaction was Nvidia's outlook for the fourth quarter. While the company provided a revenue forecast that exceeded analyst expectations, some investors may have been hoping for even more aggressive guidance.
Long-Term Growth Prospects Remain Strong
Despite the short-term volatility, Nvidia's long-term growth prospects remain robust. The company's dominance in the AI and machine learning market, coupled with its strong financial position, positions it well to capitalize on the ongoing technological revolution.
As AI advances and becomes more pervasive, the demand for high-performance computing solutions is expected to soar. With their superior performance and energy efficiency, Nvidia's GPUs are ideally suited to meet this growing demand.
Key Takeaways from Nvidia's Earnings Report
• Record Revenue: Nvidia's third-quarter revenue of $35.08 billion surpassed expectations and marked a significant year-over-year increase.
• Strong Data Center Performance: The data center segment was a major growth driver, fueled by the increasing adoption of AI and machine learning.
• Cautious Market Reaction: Despite the strong results, the market's reaction was muted, reflecting high investor expectations.
• Long-Term Growth Potential: Nvidia's strong market position and focus on innovation position it well for future growth.
As Nvidia continues to push the boundaries of technology, its stock price will likely remain volatile. However, the company's strong fundamentals and promising growth prospects make it an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors.
NVIDIA’s Next Move: Ready to Rally or Slip Lower?Good morning, trading family!
Let’s take a simple look at NVIDIA (NVDA) and where it might be headed from here. We’re at an important crossroads, so here’s what we’re watching:
If NVDA Moves Higher:
If NVDA can hold its current position, it has room to drive up into the $150 range. This could signal that buyers are stepping in and momentum is building for a rally.
If NVDA Moves Lower:
A drop could take us to the following key levels:
$144: First potential stop for support.
$138–$137: A zone where buyers might try to step in.
$132: A deeper pullback that could see some consolidation.
$129 and $120: These are lower support areas to watch if selling pressure continues.
How to Approach This:
Mark These Levels: Add them to your chart for reference.
Wait for Confirmation: Don’t rush in—see how NVDA reacts at each level.
Trade What You See: Let the price action guide you, not your emotions.
We’re at a moment where NVDA could make a strong move in either direction. Keep it simple, stay patient, and watch the levels.
Let’s make it a great trading day!
Mindbloome Trading // Kris