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NVT

The NVT Has Flashed Red on the Weekly Bitcoin ChartThis indicator has been useful in the past because dumps often occur sometime after the NVT flashes red, the problem being it doesn't clue us in as to WHEN. The price can still pump much higher before a significant pullback, so be careful. If the pullback is soonish then it's entirely possible the price drops and tests the Parabolic Adoption Curve in the 7K region. That's the lowest I see it going, with an extremely low probability that it will hit 6900. If this was useful information please like, follow, and share. Peace, Love, & Crypto, B166ER
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by B166ERcrypto
2
Bitcoin NVT Signal Flashing Red on Daily but Not on WeeklyBitcoin's NVT signal, which has done a decent job at indicating that the Bitcoin price may fall, has flashed red on the daily chart but not yet on the weekly chart. The NVT flashed red in April 2019 as well and Bitcoin continued to climb to 14K afterward before tumbling, so it's not great at signalling WHEN the price may fall. Also, it seems to be more powerful on the weekly time frame, so I'm watching that carefully. If the price were to fall back to the parabolic adoption trend line and support levels it may tumble down to the low 7K region before rebounding. Past performance does not indicate what Bitcoin will do in the future. As I have shown through evidence in the chart, Market Insiders will mess with indicators like this to get into traders' heads so be careful about acting solely based on one indicator. If this analysis helps you on your own journey please like, follow, and share. Thank you. Peace, Love, & Crypto, B166er
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by B166ERcrypto
Aroon is better than NVT (5 months later) Bitcoin (BTC)I published an idea a while back stating that Aroon is a better indicator for Predicting Bitcoin (BTC) than NVT: It's been almost 6 months later and here are the results: On May 11th Aroon said buy BTC at $7200. NVT was telling you to sell BTC. Today Nov 1st BTC sits at ~$9100 Many are saying that BTC will crash soon and that might be true. However, according to Aroon we have a very strong base at $7200. Aroon is telling us to stay in this trade NVT has not yet signal a buy entry. However, if Aroon stays green and NVT does signal I'm going to be buying more BTC. I do have a golden rule to not lose more than 10% in any trade. so unless BTC hits $6480 I'm going long BTC. Be safe out there and this is not investment advise yada yada. ~Controllinghand
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by controllinghand
13
Aroon is better than NVTIf you have been following Bitcoin charting for a while you have probably heard of NVT. Traditionally NVT has been a good indicator when to buy and sell BTC. However, recently NVT has indicated that you should be selling BTC. On the flip side Aroon has us buying BTC. Over the years NVT and Aroon have been lock step when to buy and sell BTC. This is the first time where these indicators are telling us opposite of each other. Aroon says buy BTC we are in a Bull market. NVT says sell BTC we are in a Bear market. Only time will tell but I believe Aroon is a better indicator than NVT. Fundamentally NVT should be a better indicator of the value of BTC, but, when it comes to markets and when people are involved sometimes fundamentals get thrown out the window. With Aroon the trend is your friend until the end. According to Aroon we are in a Bull Market. ~Controllinghand
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by controllinghand
6
Dynamic Range NVT Signal for Long-term Bitcoin ValuationABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL NVT Signal (Credit: woobull.com) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin, and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network. This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a static high-low range for relative valuation. THEORY A dynamic "high-low" range was chosen for the following reasons: - Bitcoin is only 10 years old, it is likely that relatively "high" and relatively "low" NVT values will change with time, as have PE ratios over the last century. - Some transactions are now made off-chain (eg. Liquid Network's private side-chain which is used by many major exchanges). If this trend continues, we can expect "normal" NVT ranges to increase with time (as the relative portion of public on-chain transaction values decreases). CALCULATION - NVT = Circulating Market Cap / 90 average On-chain Transaction Value* - Overbought (default): NVT > 2-year mean + 2*standard deviations. I.e. NVT Signal is in the top 2.5% of values for the prior 2 years. - Oversold (default) NVT < 2-year mean.** *Data source: Blockchain.info, estimated transaction value does not include returned to sender as change. **Oversold under 2-year mean was chosen due to the skewness of NVT Signal, it is not quite normally distributed. For example: NVT Signal has never been less than the 2-year mean - 2* standard deviations. This may change in the future. NOTES ON USAGE - Use with care. Bitcoin can remain "overbought" or "oversold" for extended periods (eg. 2015-2016). - As Bitcoin ages, the validity of NVT Signal will need to be monitored. Particularly with respect to potentially increasing use of side-chains, private transactions and potentially the lightning network. - It is likely that a 2-year “look back period” for calculating mean and standard deviation will not be sufficient in the decades to come. As Bitcoin matures and stabilizes (some time in the future), a longer "look back period" should probably be used. To allow for this, the defaults for this indicator can be easily adjusted.
BNC:BLXLong
by capriole_charles
20
Long Term BTC trend analysis Hello everyone, my name is CombJelliesAreCool, lets get to brass tacks. Lets start off with the red and green curves i have surrounding the entirety of the price action for BTC, i started off with the first high and low back in Oct 2010 and connected the green curve with every subsequent rally high and connected my red curve with every subsequent rally low. Doing this, its clear to see that touching either of these curves is a trustworthy indicator for the end or beginning of a sustained uptrend. Due to the inherent volatility of the bitcoin market, its entirely possible for a downtrend to occur inside of an uptrend of vice versa. However, if your uptrend doesn't touch the green curve or the downtrend doesn't touch the red curve then the trend has not completed. This indicator has played out without fail for almost 10 years now and can be seen in action with the rallies of 2011 and 2013 and the down trends of 2014 through early 2015 and i posit for the downtrend of 2018 through the rest of 2019. On this indicator i took my inspiration from @MagicPoopCannon but I came to a different conclusion on the shape of the curves, he posits that as time goes on the price of bitcoin will eventually stabilize, although I agree with him that price action will eventually stabilize as the market gets saturated, I highly doubt stability is coming anywhere in the near future with the increasing adoption and exponential amounts more money that's coming into the market so my bands increase in width as time goes on as opposed to decreases. Lets move on to the SMA cross, it looks like there's an impending deathcross on the horizon coming to confirm this downtrend we've been in for two months, with this harsh of a downtrend in the past week I assume its coming sooner than later, especially looking at the shape of the 50 SMA up close. Now for the NVT analysis, I noticed that the shape of the nvt during late 2012 through mid way 2014 has a lot of confluence with the NVT of mid 2017 through now. I first noticed that a new end of the downtrend wasnt confirmed until the NVT for a green oversold signal, one that we didnt have, even during out catastrophic drop in Nov 2018. If you look at the red lines you can see that the shapes of the NVT are basically symmetrical. You see a gradual rise into a steep rise followed by a monster of a dropoff, boom, green oversold signal, a gradual rise and plateau followed by yet another steep rise and another, albeit ever so slightly less of a dropoff than the previous, this takes us into the mid 70s of the NVT, we plateua, chop for a couple months than a decent uptrend and a very gradual drop off of the third red peak of the NVT, and finally our second green on the NVT since out first red peak and a touch of the red curve to signify the end of the downtrend. A majority of this trend is confirmed including the steepness of the angles and the timing of the plateaus in the trend. I would assume this would indeed be the case if we had good NVT data for our very first bull and bear cycle. If this fractal plays proportionally our eventual low will likely be the high 2000s or low 3000s and our rally high in 2023 will be around 250000 - 300000 dollars per BTC. Shes going down boys. Thank you for reading, Im open to ideas and criticisms.
BNC:BLX
by CombJelliesAreCool
4
Bitcoin $BTC NVT Ratio Signals Top is In, But Didn't for BottomBitcoin NVT Ratio, an indicator commonly used to time the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin "bubbles" has signaled a top is in, and during my analysis, I realized it never signaled a bottom was in during the December 2018 bottom. However, I am not sure what this means, as the creator of the indicator is bullish while the indicator suggests more bearish price action ahead. Short or long BTC tops and bottoms using PrimeXBT (ref): primexbt.com
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CoinChartist
2
NVT pointing to a deeper Bitcoin correctionNVT has exited the OverBought condition after 3 months. And this event offers multiple layers for interpretation: The local top at $13k-$14k got confirmed by the NVT. Looking back in history, we see that after this event happened a severe correction was due along the next weeks/months, pushing price down between 50%-70% which would bring us into the $4k-7$k range. Alternatively, a more classical interpretation could suggest that not so deep retracements are needed to alleviate the overextension. To the point that the Bitcoin network matures, the corrections might soften compared to the ones we've experienced in the past. Therefore we have 2 scenarios to consider: 1) This time is NOT different scenario , which would bring BTC back into the $4k-$7k range. 2) And the This time IS different scenario , which would be content with a softer correction and seeing BTC bottoming in $8k area. Please note that both scenarios assume printing a higher low above the $3100 December lows . So, all in all, that's a good thing to build a proper market structure to support the next up move beyond all-time highs at $20k. NOTE: I’ve plotted the information on a 3-day chart for better visualization. But the NVT data is based on daily candles.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by gliderfund
3
WATCH OUT BULLS, THE BEARS MIGHT BE STEPPING UP!I've noticed as of lately everyone is getting super bullish and calling for new highs so i thought i might present you with a bearish scenario. Though i am long term bullish on bitcoin i think we might now be overdue for another pullback! On the daily time frame we have just experienced a bit of a pullback in the face of a market structure top and Divergences on MACD and RSI followed by the relief rally that we are experiencing now . A divergence is simply the momentum oscillators making lower highs while the price continues to move higher. This shows us that a move is losing momentum and the move may soon be coming to and end. Our divergences on the MACD and RSI still have not fully played out so i cant get too bullish in the face of that. Markets never move in a straight line so this move up could very easily be a short squeeze. Observing The NVT we see that it has been very accurate in predicting pullbacks. Historically, when the NVT has flashed red we soon experience a dump of 18 - 70 %. our NVT indicator has been embedded in the red zone and we finally experienced a dump of 17% . Now that dump could have been it, but that would have made it one of the smallest dumps that the NVT predicted and in the face of market structure and Divergence i would expect larger. on top of that the NVT is back in the red which tells me we should expect another dump. THat being said NVT can stay red for a long time before dumping so we should drill down to the lower time frames to get an idea of timing Currently we are observing Divergences on the the hourly and 4 hour chart. Drilling down to the hourly you can see we have a triple bear divergence on the macd forming but still unconfirmed. On the RSI we have a double bear divergence forming but unconfirmed. On the 4 hour we have another MACD divergence forming but unconfirmed. To confirm these divergences we would need to see some sell volume come in and print a big fat red candle. Confirming the hourly and 4 hour divergences would likely spell and end to this move and would drive us down to complete the head and shoulders that we see on the daily chart. A likely area for reversal and for some sell volume to come in would be the 8460 area where we see major resistance confluence. The 8460 area marks the top of the bearish wedge we are forming. rejection of the top of the wedge followed by a break of the bottom of the wedge would be very bearish. In the 8460 area we will also be running into the 61.8 fib of our current range . The 61.8 fib has caused many reversals in bitcoin in the past so i would expect it to put up a fight this time. finally we also have the end of a smaller AC=CB pattern that will have many people taking profits at this level. All this being said, anywhere around the 8460 area seems like a fair spot for a violent reversal. BUT, don't jump the gun because market still hasn't broke down yet and is showing a lot of strength by continuing to push higher in the face of this bear divergence. So we shouldn't be stepping in front of this train unless we start to see some bear volume come in. If we don't break down around the 8460 area, i could see the market going parabolic and possibly breaking the 9100 area so its definitely not a good idea to blindly short until we get some confirmed divergences and market structure. Like i said earlier, NVT can sometimes stay red for a while , so we might just see the market go back up , break the 9100 highs , oscillate around the 38.2 of our larger range (9400) then proceed to give us our dump. That would also be typical crypto, print a daily sell signal to pull the bears in, pull back to get everyone bearish, then rally to new highs to break the bears' hearts, then dump to break the bulls' hearts. At the moment this scenario is less likely in my opinion seeing what we have going on in the hourly and 4 hour charts but we shall see how it plays out. Those are my two guesses about what will happen. In the long term i am still bullish bitcoin but do think we need a little more pullback. Currently i'm leaning to the scenario where we break at 8460 , but i'm no professional , just a dude with an opinion. Disclaimer: This is simply my opinion and is not investment advice !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by joshbuilds
3
So you think the bottom is in? 50% correction incoming.Hello fellow traders today i have a chart analysis that some of you have already thought of or seen. We have yet to see our bottom and while this bull rally has been pleasant for all who have been longing it, the bulls may be running out of steam. What's driving our rally is beyond me, possibly the trade war between the U.S. and China or manipulation due to the tether audit, no one knows, but i do know that we have one of our highest NVT sell signals that we have seen in a while, and it is indicating that we are currently in a bubble. The NVT signal has had 100% accuracy up until this date predicting drops and corrections of at least 50% and up to 68%. My target puts us back to 4k where i believe we will either bounce from or plunge into the abyss. The prolonged sell signal on NVT makes me cautious as whoever or whatever is causing this bull rally may have an agenda in mind that is not showing up in the charts. As you can see I have drawn in a head and shoulders pattern and i believe it is possible that it will play out similar although i feel the right shoulder may be smaller in length before dropping, but also on the RSI it appears we have double topped, so unless the bulls are able to push the price up and go above $10k in the near term i do not believe that bulls are in for a painful correction of at least 50% relative to our recent top at $9100. On the contrary, I could see that Bitcoin goes to $20k end of year or higher, but that would assume that this 86% decline has all along been a bear trap and we were never in a bear market, but that is unlikely imo. If i left anything out please leave a comment and ill respond as fast as i can. I hope you gained some insight from this and happy trading. This is not investment advice, these are just my opinions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoJosh5555
9
Weekly RSI and NVT >> Further short term upside before big dump!Dear cryptoland, Update on Bitcoin! Weekly RSI has a bit further upside to the green line; historically this has been the upside resistance in the long-term bull market, as you can see. Weekly NVT signal has no longer any upside if we were to look at history. It looks like it has topped out and is ready to dump anytime soon. I expect the #Bitcoin retrace to begin in end of May or early June, in a few days time. Before then, we'll probably test $9,600-9700 this week. June will probably be a red month; but Bitcoin is very bullish this year! A healthy retracement back to the $6,000-6,400 levels will be excellent for this bull run continuation. 35-45% is to be expected. Cheers, Leb Crypto
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Leb_Crypto
Where we are? Fear And Greed & NVT IndicatorBitcoin is in bullrun, or in bull trap? Everything would look great (except for short-term unsustainable parabolic growth), but ... these two great indicators show great trouble . The first indicator is the Fear And Greed index . Do you know the Fear And Greed index? If not, google ... This indicator shows greatly what emotions are in the market. The second indicator is my favorite NVT (Network to Value). NVT has an amazing ability to predict crashes even in places where conventional indicators can't predict it. Both of these indicators show extreme values . They are even the !!highest values in history!! The high values of these indicators have always meant a huge fall ... look at the chart. Some ideas?
BNC:BLX
by DalimilBrodsky
ETH/BTC and ALT Projection UpdateUpdate on my previous ETHBTC and ALTCOIN PROJECTION. ETH/BTC target hit. Confluence of multiple 1:1 extensions and -.236 extension. BTC/USD is on a sell Tom Demark 9 on the hourly, 4 hour, and 12 hour. The daily chart is printing a combo 13 sell signal as well. Also, NVT signal ratio for BTC is reaching near all time highs set back in December 2017. ALSO! Fear and greed crypto index is at an all time high since the chart was created. Expecting a 500 to 1000 dollar pullback on BTC while most ALT coins have an overdue pump up. Short on BTC and long on LTC and ETH.
Long
by CryptoFlipper86