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$SPX retrace back to neckline (headfake)After my last post of a bearish harami, the markets rallied to the upside, retracing back to the neckling support of the Head and Shoulders pattern formed on the SPX. While it seemed to have potential for a multiday rally, that was quickly erased by the dismal retail data on Wednesday and back to bear mode by the markets on inflation and growth concerns. For some this may have been a headfake, but i think selling in to rallies is the call of the day unless otherwise proven to have seen some sort of a bottom or a meaningful bounce. SPX target remains at 3500 - another 10% down from this point. I don't think we'll see a bounce until this level is visited. RSI is oversold but it's got some room to go. SPX is now below the 100 week moving average as well - haven't been below this MA since March 2020. Very bearish.
SP:SPXShort
by grenadetrade
$SPX Chart - Simple Sometimes Shows the WayAt times like this, technicians may over analyze to explain and predict where we're going with the markets. But sometimes the answer is in the most basic and fundamental technical patterns/signals. $SPX has been showing a Head and Shoulders patterns since about a year back, and in the last session broke through the neckline of the H&S. The target to the downside can be estimated by measuring the top to the neckline then applying the same distance from the breakpoint. That puts us at around the 3400 level, which is also near a fib support level. RSI also has bit more to go before being oversold. Speed and pace of decline to this point is unknown. $SPX probably won't go straight down, but may test the neckline support level and retrace to test resistence here. My general feeling is that those are opportunities to sell/short short term rallies. Good luck everyone.
SP:SPXShort
by grenadetrade
QQQ the BULLISH WAVE COUNT WAVE C DOWN ON NEWS I wrote last week of a crash cycle I was looking for anywhere from 11.8 min today we fell short at 9.47 % of which that is a .786 of my drop of 11.8 % I am no longer bearish . the QQQ .I HAVE MOVED TO A NET LONG AND IF WE BREAK DOWN INTO 362 I WILL BE 100% NET LONG BUT DOUBT WE will see this . I now am looking at the drop has ending a wave 4 within the super cycle blow off before the CRASH world wide due OCT 10/20 BASED ON THE 20 10 4 2 1 YR CYCLES DUE AS WELL as the 9.2 month ALL are focused on oct 10/ 20 .BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by wavetimer
USA/GOLD: the truth about $SPX-Why is the SPX a lie? For starters it weights the 500 most desirable companies and, to continue, its unit of reference is the dollar... an "unbacked" currency (as crypto fanatics say with some reason... people so blinded by their infatuation that from a half-truth they are capable of elaborating truths of a ton or even more). -Ok, and what do you want to invent, wifi rebel? There is no need to invent anything, luckily: besides the marketer SPX there is also the NYA that considers more than 2000 NYSE companies... and I believe NYA more than SPX, to make a long story short. And the dollar, although it is backed by much more than ink and paper (because behind this bill is the most powerful economy on the planet and not Argentina or Venezuela), anyway it has a lot of lies and the CPI (US Consumer Price Index) proves it every day. -And what about that? And with that it seems clear to me that we should not pay so much attention to the SPX or the dollar... especially having the NYA and gold to get a historical ratio that reflects the ups and downs in the romance between Mr. Gold and Mr. Stock Market (let's be inclusive). -And why don't you put CPI into this ratio? Well, I don't think it's necessary inasmuch as both constituents are equally affected by the depreciation of the greenish paper... so the ratio itself gives us ecumenical information on the binomial. Amen. ********************************************************************************************************** Well, let's get more serious: What we get concretely from looking at this ratio is HOW MANY GOLDEN CONTRACTS THE NYA CAN PAY OUT OVER TIME. It's that simple and that far-reaching... because if we're going to bother with "FIAT money blablabla", well then let's measure the US market in GOLD and stop whining pseudo-arguments. Does it make sense or not? I say yes... Now let's break it down: 1) the trend line below is impressive: it has three millimeter contact points... so precise that, somehow, they are backing up all the chatter I wrote above: the truth of the USA MKT is in GOLD and not USD; 2) seen this way bubbles and crises don't match sooooo much with the orthodox look in USD; 3) the "real SPX" is still bullish in very long term ... but since 2000 and the .com explosion it is still in bearish mode ... Yes: 20 years losing against gold, it's that simple .... 4) however we also see a very clear triangle figure... that was overcome to pull back to a millimeter throwback against that important TL... and now what we have is a very interesting resistance at 9.60 (NYA is paying 8.76 gold contracts and if it reaches to pay more than 9.60, "it blows up" a timberman would say). *********************************************************************************************************** Conclusion: I actually think all these arguments make sense, rationally speaking, and what I see here is very reassuring to me about "the current bubble" that has been talked about for a long time. Why? Because that bubble is measured in the "lie" of the dollar... so it is worth as much as a lie (i.e. nothing), and on the other hand in gold we have a symmetrical triangle of upward continuation that is about to be executed... with targets so astronomical that not even the most smokeseller "twistar" would dare to handle it. Think about it...
TVC:NYALong
by GusNord