Platinum: Not yet done 📉We currently locate the platinum price in the green wave (b). As soon as this low has been placed little further down the chart, we expect another major detour with green waves X and Y before we can consider the important low of the blue wave (b) to be completed. Please note our alternative: If the price falls directly below the support at $843.10 (40% likely), we assume that the alternative wave alt. (b) will be completed directly.
Nymex
NatGas: Dived in 🤿 🌊The price of NatGas has now reached the turquoise target zone between $2.98 and $2.77. Here we expect a turning point with the low of the turquoise wave (ii), ideally at the 78.60% retracement of the zone. From there, the price should move higher in large steps until it completes the orange wave (iii) at $4.60.
WTI: Unstoppable 🚀WTI is riding a robust bullish wave, propelling it to its highest levels in 10 months. In our analysis, we anticipate that, to complete the blue wave , it must surpass the resistance at $93.74. Subsequently, a noteworthy descent is in the cards. It’s essential to note that a dip below $73.89, though with a 38% probability in our estimation, signifies a further decline within the green wave alt. .
Special Report: Celebrating 40 Years of Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! )
On March 30, 1983, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) launched futures contract on WTI crude oil. This marked the beginning of an era of energy futures.
WTI is now the most liquid commodity futures contract in the world. It’s 1.7 million daily volume is equivalent to 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil and $125 billion in notional value. For comparison, global oil production was 89.9 million barrels per day in 2021.
Looking back at 1983, exactly 40 years ago:
• NYMEX was primarily a marketplace for agricultural commodities, with Maine Potato Futures being its biggest contract;
• NYMEX was a small Exchange with 816 members, mainly local traders and brokers;
• Known as Black Gold, crude oil was a strategic commodity regulated by governments and monopolized by the Big Oil, the so-called “Seven Sisters”;
• Pricing of crude oil was not a function of free market but controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC), an oil cartel.
The birth of crude oil futures contract was a remarkable story of financial innovation and great vision. Facing a “Mission Impossible”, NYMEX successfully pulled it off. At the helm of the century-old Exchange was Michel Marks, its 33-year-old Chairman, and John E. Treat, the 37-year-old NYMEX President.
The “Accidental Chairman”
Michel Marks came from a long-time NYMEX member family. His father, Francis Q. Marks, was a trading pit icon and influential member. Since high school, the younger Marks worked as a runner on the trading pit for his family business. After receiving an Economics degree from Princeton University, Michel Marks returned to NYMEX as a full-time member, trading platinum and potatoes.
In 1977, the entire NYMEX board of directors resigned, taking responsibility for the Potato Futures default from the prior year. Michel Marks was elected Vice Chairman of the new Board. He was 27 years old.
One year later, the Chairman at the time suffered a stroke. Michel Marks replaced him as the new NYMEX Chairman. At 28, he’s the youngest leader of any Exchange in the 175-year history of modern futures industry.
White House Energy Advisor
John E. Treat served in the US Navy in the Middle East and later worked as an international affairs consultant in the region. He received an Economics degree in Princeton and a master’s degree in international relations from John Hopkins.
During the Carter Administration (1977-1981), Treat worked at the US Department of Energy. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs and sat on the National Security Council and the Federal Energy Administration. In his capacity, Treat was at the center of the formation of US energy policy.
After President Carter lost his reelection bid, Treat left Washington in 1981. At the time, NYMEX was exploring new contracts outside of agricultural commodities. One possible direction was the energy sector, where NYMEX previously listed a Heating Oil contract with little traction in the market. With his strong background, Treat was recruited by NYMEX as a senior vice president.
A year later, after then President Richard Leone resigned, Treat was nominated by Chairman Marks to become NYMEX President. He was 36 years old.
The Birth of WTI Crude Oil Futures
In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty and established the Islamic Republic of Iran, led by Shiite spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
Shortly after, the Iran-Iraq War broke out. Daily production of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of crude oil rose from $14 to $35 per barrel. This event was known as the second oil crisis. It triggered a global economic recession, with U.S. GDP falling by 3 percent.
After President Reagan took office in 1981, he introduced a series of new policies, known as Reaganomics, to boost the U.S. economy. The four pillars that represent Reaganomics were reducing the growth of government spending, reducing federal income taxes and capital gains taxes, reducing government regulation, and tightening the money supply to reduce inflation.
In terms of energy policy, the Reagan administration relaxed government regulations on domestic oil and gas exploration and relaxed the price of natural gas.
NYMEX President John Treat sensed that the time was ripe for energy futures. He formed an Advisory Committee to conduct a feasibility study on the listing of crude oil futures. His strategic initiative received the backing of Chairman Michel Marks, who in turn gathered the support of the full NYMEX membership.
Arnold Safir, an economist on the advisory board, led the contract design of WTI crude oil futures. The underlying commodity is West Texas Intermediate produced in Cushing, Oklahoma. The delivery location was chosen for the convenience of domestic oil refineries. WTI oil contains fewer impurities, which results in lower processing costs. US refineries prefer to use WTI over the heavier Gulf oil.
WTI trading code is CL, the abbreviation of Crude Light. Contract size is 1,000 barrels of crude oil. At $73/barrel, each contract is worth $73,000. Due to the profound impact of crude oil on world economy, NYMEX lists contracts covering a nine-year period.
On March 29, 1983, the CFTC approved NYMEX's application. The next day, WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX floor for the first time.
Competing for the Pricing Power
Now that crude oil futures were listed. Initially, only NYMEX members and speculators were trading the contracts. All the oil industry giants sat on the sidelines.
John Treat knew that without their participation, the futures market could not have meaningful impact on the oil market, not to mention a pricing power over crude oil.
In early 1980s, the global oil market was monopolized by seven Western oil companies, known as the "Seven Sisters". Together, they control nearly one-third of global oil and gas production and more than one-third of oil and gas reserves.
1) Standard Oil of New Jersey, later became Exxon;
2) Standard Oil of New York, later became Mobil Oil Company; It merged with Exxon in 1998 to form ExxonMobil;
3) Standard Oil of California, later became Chevron; It took over Texaco in 2001, and the combined company is still named Chevron;
4) Texaco, collapsed in 2001 and was taken over by Chevron;
5) Gulf Oil, which was acquired by Chevron in 1984;
6) British Persian Oil Company, operating in Iran, withdrew after the Iranian Revolution and then fully operated the North Sea oil fields, later British Petroleum ("BP");
7) Shell, an Anglo-Dutch joint venture.
Treat's background as President Carter's energy adviser played a key role. After nearly a year of hard work, the first Big Oil entered the NYMEX crude oil trading floor. However, it was not until five years later that all Seven Sisters became NYMEX members.
OPEC producers tried to boycott the crude oil futures market. However, as trading volume grew, they eventually gave in, first by Venezuela and then the oil producers in the Middle East.
Interestingly, the Middle Eastern oil producers started out by trading COMEX gold futures, probably as a hedge against oil prices. Gold has been a significant part in the Middle Eastern culture for long. As the main buyers of gold, the Arabs buy more gold when their pockets are filled with rising oil prices, and conversely, they sell gold when oil revenues fall and their ability to buy gold decreases.
With the participation of Big Oil and OPEC, coupled with an active crude oil options market, crude oil pricing power has shifted from the Middle East to NYMEX's trading floor by the end of the 1980s. WTI has also become a globally recognized benchmark for crude oil prices.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
USOILOil prints this great weekly candle, which suggests that price is going to revert back into Value, and deems the excessively high oil prices as a tad overpriced, which is great. We have this big weekly pin inside the range of the previous candle, and typically these produce some great trades as the bearish pressure starts to build, we can look to aim for three trade points from here. Enjoy.
Shorting Palladium FuturesPalladium is in a strong downtrend right now. In fact, in the Trend Following Market Trends Barometer , it is the strongest trend with a value of over 70%.
We are opening short positions at market price with a very strong risk management metric - as always - aiming to surf the downtrend and lose only 0.5% of our portfolio value if there is a pullback. Our target is around 1505, but the exit will be through volatility and trailing stops.
As we can see, the trend has an RSI of 39.70 on the weekly chart. It is below the 210, 70 and 14 SMA's, and has broken a trend line support. There are opportunities to follow the trend.
We can open more positions further if the trend remains bearish and close them on a percentage basis if sharp pullbacks occur. Again, it depends on volatility and trailing stops. The system is automated.
Product. Palladium futures (NYMEX). No CFDs or other OTC derivatives for now.
Position: Sell, market price.
Stop loss: around 1 800 (trailing stop, we can re-enter if there is a pullback).
Target: Around 1 500 (we won't manually close, the TL stop will).
Resizing: We can open more positions if the trend is strong.
Risk: High.
What to buy and how to ride the commodity bull?Discussion:
1. Example on Natural Gas - breaking away from its range
2. Beginning stage of a “Growth” stage
3. Identifying and trading in its uptrend with multiple timeframes
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CL - FridayCrude Oil is wandering in a Desert for Price once again, we Observed
the Pit over Close @ 66 vs 73 - A higher close.
Cl Traded Resistance during Globex, it is now Trading to Support.
Friday's are generally kind to CL, CL Friday's remove more Capital
from Traders than any other day of the week.
Trade the Range - Gaps have a nasty habit of filling on CL every
Friday.
Today, depending on the OVX could be unsettling...
LITE CRUDE OIL FUTURES 1DRanges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of volume average for a full position size.
b - If 75% of volume average then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
If not 75% then stand aside from the trade.
2 – If candle breaks out of a trendline, 15m before the close of the day prepare your buy/sell order.
Enter two trades. 1st trade will have a SL & TP. It will close automatically when the 1st TP is hit. 2nd
trade only has a SL and will be allowed to run. When 1st TP is hit move the SL to breakeven. Look
at ATR and prepare SL at 1.5 of ATR. Prepare 1st trade TP at 1 of ATR.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade don't wait for SL to be hit.
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.