Light Crude Oil Futures Short Setup and potential Long
Expecting some sideways before a move up into the 78.50 region and a pull back to the levels shown .
Aside from the confluences I have documented , this plan also correlates well with my USD outlook .
I will wait for the short and have alerts set but there is also a long from around 75.20ish if you wanted to take the move up beforehand.
Of course this analysis could easily change so manage your risk accordingly with your trading plan .
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Nymexcrude
Special Report: Celebrating 40 Years of Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! )
On March 30, 1983, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) launched futures contract on WTI crude oil. This marked the beginning of an era of energy futures.
WTI is now the most liquid commodity futures contract in the world. It’s 1.7 million daily volume is equivalent to 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil and $125 billion in notional value. For comparison, global oil production was 89.9 million barrels per day in 2021.
Looking back at 1983, exactly 40 years ago:
• NYMEX was primarily a marketplace for agricultural commodities, with Maine Potato Futures being its biggest contract;
• NYMEX was a small Exchange with 816 members, mainly local traders and brokers;
• Known as Black Gold, crude oil was a strategic commodity regulated by governments and monopolized by the Big Oil, the so-called “Seven Sisters”;
• Pricing of crude oil was not a function of free market but controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC), an oil cartel.
The birth of crude oil futures contract was a remarkable story of financial innovation and great vision. Facing a “Mission Impossible”, NYMEX successfully pulled it off. At the helm of the century-old Exchange was Michel Marks, its 33-year-old Chairman, and John E. Treat, the 37-year-old NYMEX President.
The “Accidental Chairman”
Michel Marks came from a long-time NYMEX member family. His father, Francis Q. Marks, was a trading pit icon and influential member. Since high school, the younger Marks worked as a runner on the trading pit for his family business. After receiving an Economics degree from Princeton University, Michel Marks returned to NYMEX as a full-time member, trading platinum and potatoes.
In 1977, the entire NYMEX board of directors resigned, taking responsibility for the Potato Futures default from the prior year. Michel Marks was elected Vice Chairman of the new Board. He was 27 years old.
One year later, the Chairman at the time suffered a stroke. Michel Marks replaced him as the new NYMEX Chairman. At 28, he’s the youngest leader of any Exchange in the 175-year history of modern futures industry.
White House Energy Advisor
John E. Treat served in the US Navy in the Middle East and later worked as an international affairs consultant in the region. He received an Economics degree in Princeton and a master’s degree in international relations from John Hopkins.
During the Carter Administration (1977-1981), Treat worked at the US Department of Energy. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs and sat on the National Security Council and the Federal Energy Administration. In his capacity, Treat was at the center of the formation of US energy policy.
After President Carter lost his reelection bid, Treat left Washington in 1981. At the time, NYMEX was exploring new contracts outside of agricultural commodities. One possible direction was the energy sector, where NYMEX previously listed a Heating Oil contract with little traction in the market. With his strong background, Treat was recruited by NYMEX as a senior vice president.
A year later, after then President Richard Leone resigned, Treat was nominated by Chairman Marks to become NYMEX President. He was 36 years old.
The Birth of WTI Crude Oil Futures
In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty and established the Islamic Republic of Iran, led by Shiite spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
Shortly after, the Iran-Iraq War broke out. Daily production of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of crude oil rose from $14 to $35 per barrel. This event was known as the second oil crisis. It triggered a global economic recession, with U.S. GDP falling by 3 percent.
After President Reagan took office in 1981, he introduced a series of new policies, known as Reaganomics, to boost the U.S. economy. The four pillars that represent Reaganomics were reducing the growth of government spending, reducing federal income taxes and capital gains taxes, reducing government regulation, and tightening the money supply to reduce inflation.
In terms of energy policy, the Reagan administration relaxed government regulations on domestic oil and gas exploration and relaxed the price of natural gas.
NYMEX President John Treat sensed that the time was ripe for energy futures. He formed an Advisory Committee to conduct a feasibility study on the listing of crude oil futures. His strategic initiative received the backing of Chairman Michel Marks, who in turn gathered the support of the full NYMEX membership.
Arnold Safir, an economist on the advisory board, led the contract design of WTI crude oil futures. The underlying commodity is West Texas Intermediate produced in Cushing, Oklahoma. The delivery location was chosen for the convenience of domestic oil refineries. WTI oil contains fewer impurities, which results in lower processing costs. US refineries prefer to use WTI over the heavier Gulf oil.
WTI trading code is CL, the abbreviation of Crude Light. Contract size is 1,000 barrels of crude oil. At $73/barrel, each contract is worth $73,000. Due to the profound impact of crude oil on world economy, NYMEX lists contracts covering a nine-year period.
On March 29, 1983, the CFTC approved NYMEX's application. The next day, WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX floor for the first time.
Competing for the Pricing Power
Now that crude oil futures were listed. Initially, only NYMEX members and speculators were trading the contracts. All the oil industry giants sat on the sidelines.
John Treat knew that without their participation, the futures market could not have meaningful impact on the oil market, not to mention a pricing power over crude oil.
In early 1980s, the global oil market was monopolized by seven Western oil companies, known as the "Seven Sisters". Together, they control nearly one-third of global oil and gas production and more than one-third of oil and gas reserves.
1) Standard Oil of New Jersey, later became Exxon;
2) Standard Oil of New York, later became Mobil Oil Company; It merged with Exxon in 1998 to form ExxonMobil;
3) Standard Oil of California, later became Chevron; It took over Texaco in 2001, and the combined company is still named Chevron;
4) Texaco, collapsed in 2001 and was taken over by Chevron;
5) Gulf Oil, which was acquired by Chevron in 1984;
6) British Persian Oil Company, operating in Iran, withdrew after the Iranian Revolution and then fully operated the North Sea oil fields, later British Petroleum ("BP");
7) Shell, an Anglo-Dutch joint venture.
Treat's background as President Carter's energy adviser played a key role. After nearly a year of hard work, the first Big Oil entered the NYMEX crude oil trading floor. However, it was not until five years later that all Seven Sisters became NYMEX members.
OPEC producers tried to boycott the crude oil futures market. However, as trading volume grew, they eventually gave in, first by Venezuela and then the oil producers in the Middle East.
Interestingly, the Middle Eastern oil producers started out by trading COMEX gold futures, probably as a hedge against oil prices. Gold has been a significant part in the Middle Eastern culture for long. As the main buyers of gold, the Arabs buy more gold when their pockets are filled with rising oil prices, and conversely, they sell gold when oil revenues fall and their ability to buy gold decreases.
With the participation of Big Oil and OPEC, coupled with an active crude oil options market, crude oil pricing power has shifted from the Middle East to NYMEX's trading floor by the end of the 1980s. WTI has also become a globally recognized benchmark for crude oil prices.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX CRUDETechnical bear flag on $CL. MACD looking to cross and I suspect a retrace and consolidation within the 80.76 to 80.33 support zone until it rejoins the short term trend.
Omicron affect being not a severe and economies starting to return to normal will drive the increase in oil consumption.
I suspect it will go higher. Open interest in WTI100 calls have increased significantly and paired with other macro factors I think this trade is high probability to return to the up trend after retrace.
I wait for the confirmed break down to make a decision.
Not investment advice, I am currently neutral and waiting for the trade
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE FUTURE MAY FALL IN APRILThe chart give you all details of ELLIOT wave count for NYMEX light sweet crude futures.
I noticed that his commodity recovered in 'V' shape from ABYSS(3rd of3of wave5) and erased all its losses to $60
But this recovery has one more test for final wave C5v, I assume that this will finish nextmonth (april)for 0.618 times of c5i at $46
comments are welcome
Nymex Futures Long CL1!Wait for the pullback down to the orange box for a long entry
The support shown has confluence with the 100EMA, .618 Fib pull
from the last swing high and the bottom of a respected channel .
Expecting a bounce in the area shown but please be aware of
the numbers due today and tommorow .
The American petroleum Institute on crude oil stock levels
as well as official numbers from the Department of energy on the 17March.
Set a Alert for this trade and watch how the market reacts to the data with a solid plan .
Show your support with a Like and a Follow .
#USOIL China is reacting and the Trade War isn't good Risk appetite reverses on trade escalation, again TRADE WAR ESCALATION , not because of the FED and its interest rates. However, we "the old traders" are keen on Jackson Hole speech. Now, just keep in mind the consumer sector is the hero of the U.S economy but with trade war in front of us, prices will rise and finally impact the consumer sector. What does it mean for the USOIL? Tough time to push it lower, even to go around $50 per barrel but not for so long. So, what about a rally? I'd be a tough buyer around <$49/48.
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NYMEX CRUDE OIL, Target HitsIf you have been following me, I posted a chart for crude oil few weeks back for a shot position and it has been doing exactly
the same after i posted that chart. It has been turning out even better than i anticipated and quicker for that matter.
We can see further down fall till 61/60 targets at least, where I would suggest to exit your positions.
I will soon re evaluate my strategy after it hits those targets as it has been volatile for all commodities and other asset classes
in general. But for now the chart/commodity is doing what was expected after a huge surge in the commodity since the last few months.
CRUDE OIL (NYMEX)B&B Pattern. Trade setup with Stop Buy position (EP) at 63.50, Stop Loss (SL) at 62.50 and Take Profit (TP) at 64.30
Money Management
I have 17,000 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 1700 USD.
Position Sizing
1 Tick = $1000
1 Contract size need IM = $2,310 (I can open not more than $17,000 / $2,310 = 7.35 Cons)
It is 1 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 1 * $1000 = $1,000
To lose 1,700 USD I need to open 1,700 / 1,000 = 1.7 Con
Then I will put 1 Contract
WTI NYMEX CRUDE OIL FORECAST- Pull back or still some Gas left?Crude oil had a crazy rally last year and was one of the most promising commodities and is still a performer in January 2018
along with other commodities such as GOLD and Silver. However there seems to be some resistance up ahead for WTI crude oil
around the $67 dollar mark and by the looks of it, it can be a good time to short. Yes! i do believe Crude oil is headed upwards in the $75-$80 mark as most of the analyst on trading view as well as big banks which expect nymex to cross $80 in 2018. But all that put aside I still think we can see some pull back here and test some resistance levels it took out
recently in the last few weeks. Once was a resistance now becomes support, So it would be a good time to test those
support levels right now for further gains. I would personally want to short on those levels for short term gains.
Crude long idea- CLBounce-a-thon
You can wait for the 50.13 resistance to break to go long
or go long now and have a stop at 47.52.
However, there seems to be a better risk/reward if you go
long after 50.13.
Be patient with this kind of setup since it's a daily chart.
Also, I'm new so please trade accordingly.