Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds to 35% Amid Tariff Fears Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has lowered its S&P 500 year-end target again. The firm now sees the index ending at 5,700 points, down from its earlier forecast of 6,200. This revision comes just days before President Trump’s new round of tariffs is set to begin. The updated target implies only a 2% gain from Friday’s close of approximately 5,597.
Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin pointed to rising tariffs and slowing economic growth as key concerns. The revised forecast reflects a cautious outlook in light of economic risks. This is the second time Goldman has slashed its target this month.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability to 35%, up from a previous 20%. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius explained that higher tariffs and softening economic data contributed to the decision. Goldman now estimates the average U.S. tariff rate will rise to 15% in 2025, compared to an earlier projection of 10%.
Alongside these changes, the bank has cut its Q4 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.5%. The adjustment follows weakening household and business confidence. Recent White House comments also suggest officials may accept short-term economic strain to pursue long-term trade objectives.
These developments reflect growing concern across Wall Street. Goldman’s 5,700 target ranks among the lowest of major forecasts. With markets already on edge, the new projection underscores broader fears over trade tensions and economic resilience.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Below $500
The S&P 500 has turned bearish after falling below a key support at $510. This level had held firm previously but now acts as resistance. The break and close below the key level signals strong bearish pressure and there is a possibility of more bearish momentum.
Price is currently trending lower towards the next potential support at $440. If it breaks below it, further drop could follow. The bearish pressure may continue unless the bulls defend the key support level.
However, if the bulls can finally defend the $440 level, it could potentially recover and target $510. In that case, the first resistance to overcome is $510. If it is also broken above, the next target would be the $592 resistance zone. A break above $592 could revive bullish momentum.
As of April 4th 2025, Goldman Sachs stock closed at $21.74, down 1.50% on the day. Investors await further updates ahead of the earnings report due April 14th 2025.
Nyse
SNOW Finds Support at 200-Day SMASnowflake has been trading within a wide range between 108 and 240 over the past three years. During this period, revenue growth has remained steady, but operating and R&D expenses have consistently increased. This is a company that prioritizes growth and invests heavily in research, expanding its product offerings and business relationships.
However, the recent downturn, driven by tariffs and the broader selloff in AI and cloud-related stocks has exposed Snowflake's vulnerabilities.
The company reports reflect this caution. Recently, SNOW has received both downgrades and buy signals, highlighting analyst and market indecision. In such an environment, the stock’s performance will likely lean heavily on broader index movement. With a beta above 1.5, SNOW is expected to react more sharply to market swings. The consensus 12 month target still shows 38% upward potential.
Currently, Snowflake is finding support at the 200-day simple moving average. If the market manages to weather the impact of the April 2 tariffs and potential countermeasures, SNOW could stage a solid rebound. On the downside, the 130–135 zone stands out as a key support area just below the moving average.
Loar Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LOAR) Set To Report Earnings TodayLoar Holdings Inc (NYSE: LOAR), a company that designs, manufactures, and markets aerospace and defense components for aircraft, and aerospace and defense systems in the United States and internationally is set to report earnings result on Monday, March 31, 2025, before market open.
Belonging to the aerospace and defence sector, Loar Holdings Inc (NYSE: LOAR) closed Friday's session down 2.61% trading within the psychological support zone formed prior a falling wedge pattern.
With the RSI at 45 a breakout above the resistant point could cement the grounds for a bullish campaign. Similarly, a breakdown below the psychological support zone could lead to a selling spree for NYSE:LOAR shares.
Analyst Forecast
According to 4 analysts, the average rating for LOAR stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $83.5, which is an increase of 26.57% from the latest price.
Comstock Resources (CRK) – Expanding U.S. Natural Gas DominanceCompany Overview:
Comstock Resources NYSE:CRK is accelerating natural gas production, reinforcing its position in the Western Haynesville play, a key U.S. gas region.
Key Catalysts:
Production Expansion & Strategic Acquisitions ⛽
Increasing drilling rigs from 5 to 7 for higher output.
Acquired 64,000 net acres in Haynesville, boosting reserves & market share.
Investment in Drilling & Midstream Infrastructure 🏗️
$1.0-$1.1 billion planned for 46 horizontal wells in 2025.
$130-$150 million allocated to midstream development, optimizing gas transport & profitability.
Market Strength & Growth Outlook 📈
Positioned to capitalize on rising U.S. natural gas demand & global LNG expansion.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on CRK above $15.50-$16.00, supported by production growth & infrastructure investment.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $30.00-$31.00, driven by expansion, operational efficiency, and market strength.
🔥 CRK – Fueling the Future of U.S. Natural Gas. #CRK #NaturalGas #EnergyStocks
KE Holdings (BEKE) – Transforming China’s Real Estate MarketCompany Overview:
KE Holdings NYSE:BEKE is revolutionizing real estate with its hybrid digital-physical platform, leveraging strategic backing from Tencent (8% voting power).
Key Catalysts:
Strong Financial & Earnings Growth 💰
Analysts project 20.9% annual earnings growth and 26.7% EPS increase.
Reinforces BEKE’s leading position in China’s real estate sector.
Expanding Services & Market Reach 🌍
Acquisition of Shengdu Home Decoration (2022) strengthens BEKE’s homeownership services.
Broadens revenue streams beyond real estate transactions.
Strategic Backing & Partnerships 🤝
Tencent’s support enhances financial stability & collaboration opportunities.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on BEKE above $20.00-$21.00, supported by rising profitability & business expansion.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $36.00-$37.00, driven by earnings growth, platform expansion, and strategic alliances.
🔥 BEKE – Shaping the Future of Homeownership in China. #BEKE #RealEstateTech #GrowthStock
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) – Strong Growth & Rising ProfitabilityCompany Overview:
Harmony Gold Mining NYSE:HMY continues to outperform expectations, delivering higher grades, cost efficiency, and production expansion.
Key Catalysts:
High-Quality Gold Extraction ⛏️
Underground recovered grades surged to 6.4 g/t, exceeding full-year guidance.
Reinforces HMY’s ability to extract high-quality ore.
Cost Efficiency & Rising Gold Prices 📈
All-in sustaining costs at ZAR 972,000/kg, well-managed despite inflationary pressures.
Gold’s safe-haven demand surging due to geopolitical tensions, boosting HMY’s margins.
Expansion & Future Growth 🚀
New high-grade mining site announced, set to enhance future production & revenue growth.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on HMY above $10.50-$11.00, supported by cost control & rising gold prices.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $17.00-$18.00, driven by high-margin production & increasing investor interest in gold.
🔥 HMY – Unlocking Gold’s Full Potential. #HMY #GoldMining #SafeHavenAsset
Chevron (CVX) – Strong Growth & Cash Flow ExpansionCompany Overview:
Chevron NYSE:CVX continues to demonstrate strong operational efficiency, strategic expansion, and record-breaking U.S. production.
Key Catalysts:
Production Growth & Profitability 🚀
Global production up 7% in 2024.
U.S. output surged 19% to record levels.
Permian Basin nearing 1M bpd, reinforcing cash flow strength.
Strategic Expansion & Sustainability 🌍
Gulf of Mexico projects targeting a boost from 200K to 300K bpd.
Future Growth Project in Kazakhstan enhances long-term production & ESG alignment.
Navigating Venezuelan challenges while leveraging stable U.S. policies for continued growth.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on CVX above $139.00-$140.00, backed by resilient production growth & execution.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $215.00-$220.00, supported by strong cash flow & expansion initiatives.
🔥 Chevron – Powering the Future with Growth & Stability. #CVX #EnergyStocks #OilAndGas
Everyone’s scared of booze stocks… Why I’m still buyingThis analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
One of the things I find interesting is that a lot of people say “why do you like booze stocks so much Eden” and yet many of these same people are at the pub, or buying En primeur from Glengarry Wines. The short answer is — I like stocks that trade at multi-year lows with a predictable product. There is a fairly hysterical article in the FT wondering “Is alcohol the new tobacco?” To which I say, well, tobacco companies are absolute cash machines. The best performing stock in the S&P, of all time, to the best of my knowledge, is Altria.
I know investing in tobacco is not fashionable (and yet, how many people do you see on the street vaping?). I know it goes against “ESG” and the scolds at public health slap you on the hand and say “gosh that is very bad for you!”. But the truth is that tobacco does generate tremendous profits — the net income margin for British American Tobacco is 39.1%. For those in the back, that’s for every $1 you sell, you make 39.1 cents of profit. There’s very few businesses with such fantastic operating margins — Visa’s net income margin is 56%. If I owned only one stock forever, I guess it’d probably be Visa.
My point is — waving your hands about and saying “oh no! Tobacco!” belies the economics of it. The tobacco companies are doing very well, thank you very much. It will come as no surprise that cigarette smoking has been replaced by vaping. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, news of nicotine’s demise has been greatly exaggerated.
This is not saying to invest in tobacco stocks, but my point is that human habits don’t change. They merely evolve, but the song remains the same.
To be fair — alcohol consumption is declining. But it isn’t declining at a rate that calls for any kind of alarm. Most of the companies I follow — Brown Forman, Diageo, Constellation, etc, reported largely flat sales. It’s also instructive to look to history.
In other words — alcohol consumption has largely normalised in the last few decades. There’s still cause for worry — I think wine is one area of concern, and Cognac is another — both industries need to think about how they introduce younger drinkers to their product. This is why I largely shy away from wine (and why Constellation is selling their wine portfolio). “Evergreens” like Guinness (a Diageo brand) and Jack Daniel’s (a Brown-Forman brand) are predictable.
Once again — a bunch of ratios for ya’ll:
Brown-Forman: 18x fwd earnings
Pernod: 12x fwd earnings
Constellation Brands: 13.25x fwd earnings
And so on… these stocks trade like they are discount retailers in biddlybunk Ohio. They are not. There’s the issue. There’s where value lies. Cigarettes never went away; they became vapes. In my opinion, I don’t see booze going away anytime soon either.
Breaking: KB Home (NYSE: KBH) On The Verge of a Selling SpreeShares of KB Home (NYSE: NYSE:KBH ) saw a 7% downtick early morning in Tuesday's premarket session breaking below the psychological support point of $60 enroute towards a selling spree.
Operating as a homebuilding company in the United States, the company operates through four segments: West Coast, Southwest, Central, and Southeast. It builds and sells a variety of homes, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes, and condominiums primarily for first-time, first move-up, second move-up, and active adult homebuyers.
Yesterday after market close KB Home report earnings results, posting lower profit and revenue in its fiscal first quarter, hurt by softer-than-expected demand.
KB Home shares have declined 10% over the past year due to affordability pressures and elevated interest rates, with Q1 results showing significant demand slowdown.
The company reported weak Q1 financials, with earnings and revenue misses, a 9% drop in deliveries, and a 17% fall in net orders.
Elevated interest rates and increased supply have pressured margins and demand, particularly affecting first-time buyers, leading to reduced revenue guidance and operating margin
Financial Performance
In 2024, KB Home's revenue was $6.93 billion, an increase of 8.10% compared to the previous year's $6.41 billion. Earnings were $650.19 million, an increase of 10.97%.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, shares of NYSE:KBH are down 7.20% on Tuesday's premarket trading with the asset facing selling pressure, should the RSI which is currently at 48 dip to 40, a bearish campaign would be inevitable- similarly, a move above the $72 pivot could change the course for NYSE:KBH shares.
Analyst Forecast
According to 13 analysts, the average rating for KBH stock is "Hold." The 12-month stock price forecast is $75.5, which is an increase of 22.19% from the latest price.
Rocket Companies (RKT) – Fintech-Driven Mortgage GrowthCompany Overview:
Rocket Companies NYSE:RKT is a fintech leader in mortgage and real estate solutions, leveraging AI-driven efficiency to enhance profitability and market share.
Key Catalysts:
Surging Profitability & Efficiency 💰
Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 18% in Q4 2024, up from 2% a year prior, reflecting strong financial performance.
Rocket Mortgage Growth 📊
Net rate lock volume surged 47% YoY to $23.6 billion, far outpacing industry trends.
Expanding Servicing Portfolio 📈
The $593 billion servicing portfolio (+17%) provides stable revenue and cross-selling opportunities, acting as a hedge against rate volatility.
Resilient Market Share Expansion 🏆
Despite industry headwinds, Rocket continues to grow market share, proving its competitive edge in mortgage lending.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on RKT above $11.80-$12.00, driven by profitability gains, market expansion, and portfolio strength.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $20.00-$21.00, reflecting sustained growth and operational efficiency.
🔥 Rocket Companies – Powering the Future of Mortgage & Fintech. #RKT #MortgageTech #FintechGrowth
Breaking: Rubrik, (NYSE: RBRK) Surge 18% In Premarket TradingRubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) a company providing data security solutions to individuals and businesses worldwide, offering enterprise data protection, unstructured data protection, cloud data protection, and SaaS data protection solutions; data threat analytics; data security posture; and cyber recovery solutions saw its stock surged about 18% on Friday's premarket session amidst fourth quarter and fiscal Year 2025 financial results.
Earnings Highlight
Results exceeded all guided metrics
Fourth quarter subscription ARR grew 39% year-over-year to $1,092.6 million
Fourth quarter revenue grew 47% year-over-year to $258.1 million
2,246 customers with $100K or more in Subscription ARR, up 29% year-over-year
First Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook
Rubrik is providing the following guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and the full fiscal year 2026:
First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Outlook:
Revenue of $259 million to $261 million.
Non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin of approximately 4.0% to 5.0%.
Non-GAAP EPS of $(0.33) to $(0.31).
Weighted-average shares outstanding of approximately 192 million.
Full Year 2026 Outlook:
Subscription ARR between $1,350 million and $1,360 million.
Revenue of $1,145 million to $1,161 million.
Non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin of approximately 4.5% to 5.5%.
Non-GAAP EPS of $(1.23) to $(1.13).
Weighted-average shares outstanding of approximately 198 million.
Free cash flow of $45 million to $65 million.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NYSE:RBRK shares are up 18.56% on Fridays premarket session forming a gap up pattern which is a strong bullish reversal pattern. NYSE:RBRK shares closed Thursday's session with a weak momentum as highlighted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 but this 18% premarket surge could place NYSE:RBRK on the cusp of a bullish campaign with eyes set on the $88 pivot point.
Similarly, should NYSE:RBRK shares consolidate the 65% Fibonacci retracement point is well capable of acting as s support point before it picks momentum up.
Tencent Music (TME) – Streaming Growth & Fan Engagement Company Overview:
Tencent Music Entertainment NYSE:TME is a leading digital music streaming platform with a 35.7% stock return over the past year, signaling strong market confidence.
Key Catalysts:
Q4 2024 Earnings on March 18 📊
Analysts anticipate positive results, which could boost investor sentiment.
Bubble Service Expansion on QQ Music 🚀
The new partnership with SM Entertainment’s Dear U enhances artist-fan engagement, increasing user retention and monetization.
Diverse Platform Ecosystem 🎧
Platforms like QQ Music, Kugou, Kuwo, and WeSing provide stable revenue while reducing reliance on any single platform.
Strategic Entertainment Partnerships 🤝
Collaborations with major entertainment entities expand TME’s content library and user engagement, solidifying its industry position.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on TME above $11.00-$12.00, driven by user growth, service expansion, and industry alliances.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $19.00-$20.00, backed by earnings growth, new services, and a strong content strategy.
🔥 Tencent Music – The Future of Digital Streaming & Fan Engagement. #TME #MusicTech #StreamingStocks
TSLA SELLING PRESSURE MAY REDUCE AS SHARE PRICE DIPS INTO SUPPORTesla’s support level between 200 and 260 may act as a buffer to hold the share price amid ongoing selling pressure. Will there be rejections on TSLA in coming week(s)?
N.B!
- TSLA price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#tsla
#nasdaq
#nyse
Short, target 60.97Following weekly chart.
I got a short signal from my power indicator, now let's check where it should go.
Following fibonacci level and support levels, I see a big opportunity between 60.92-61.62
Also we have a gap in 60.92 which supports this idea.
There might be still an uptrend, my stop loss level is above 623.23 weekly close.
Any thoughts?
Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) To Report Earnings Before the BellTarget Corporation (NYSE: NYSE:TGT ) a company that operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States is set to report earnings on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, before market open. In like of that manner, NYSE:TGT shares surge 2.27% in Tuesday's premarket trading.
With the 1-month low acting as a support point, in the case of a pullback the 1-month low seems strong enough to hold off sellers. With the RSI at 40, a bullish reversal could be feasible in the case of a favourable earnings outlook.
Financial Performance
In 2023, Target's revenue was $107.41 billion, a decrease of -1.57% compared to the previous year's $109.12 billion. Earnings were $4.14 billion, an increase of 48.85%.
Analyst Forecast
According to 31 analysts, the average rating for TGT stock is "Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $159.45, which is an increase of 32.04% from the latest price.