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Nzd-cad

NZDCAD Close to a medium-term buy signalThe NZDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since late February 2021. Yesterday it bounced off the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line that started on the June 18 2021 Low. Even though this suggests that the price is at or at least very close to the new medium-term bottom (Lower Low), the indicator that has given a confirmed buy signal since April 2021 is the MACD on the 1D time-frame. As this chart shows, every time the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, the price always makes (even a short-term) rebound. The MACD Bullish Cross is typically formed just a few days after the price bottom (Lower Low). The previous Lower Lows have rallied to the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down in the past two events. At the same time, almost all MACD Bullish Crosses have made the price test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), while all have made it test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Assuming we are at or close to the new bottom, the current 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is around 0.85930, where the 1D MA200 is roughly projected to be by late June. On the other hand, a 1D candle close below the Channel Down, sets in motion a test of the lower Fibonacci extensions at 0.8000 even 0.78000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
NZD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting the RBNZ surprise economists but not STIR markets by delivering a 50bsp hike, taking the OCR to 1.50%. The bank stressed, like most others, that inflation is a concern and that they will ensure that higher price pressures don’t become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. The NZD initially pushed higher after the 50bsp hike (surprising economists) but it faded initial strength to trade much lower (as a 50bsp was almost fully priced by STIR markets). The statement reflected the hawkish tone we’ve grown accustomed to see from the bank over the past few months with the Committee saying they agreed that their policy ‘path of least regrets’ was to increase the OCR by 50bsp now rather than later, and of course stated that more hikes are needed (in line with their OCR projections). The one less hawkish element for the decision was that the bank didn’t increase their neutral rate expectations and instead said they are comfortable with their February MPS OCR outlook. The markets wanted to see a clear promise of more 50bsp hikes or alternatively wanted to see an increase of the neutral rate expectations, and without either of those the 50bsp hike was simply seen as front-loading. As a result of this, money markets were pricing in just a 25bsp for May for the majority of Wednesday. But after calls from Westpac, ASB and Kiwibank for a 50bsp in May we saw the NZD regain some composure on Thursday as STIR markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50bsp hike. The RBNZ remain hawkish, but a lot of that is arguably priced in and might not continue to offer much more support for the NZD. 2. Economic outlook The econ outlook looks solid as growth & inflation is expected to accelerate, home prices up 30%, commodity prices supported, and a ratified trade deal with China (opening more Chinese markets for NZ goods). Given it’s trade with China and Australia the recent Covid situation in China is a short-term negative for the NZD. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD. 4. CFTC Analysis Most recent positioning data for the NZD was mostly a mixed bag with no major bullish or bearish signals to take from it with positioning remaining close to neutral across participant categories. With a lot of one-sided upside in recent weeks some mean reversion makes sense, especially with the current Covid situation getting worse in China, and the correlation to equities last week showing some traditional risk sensitivity for the NZD. 5. The Week Ahead For the week ahead it’s a very light econ calendar for the NZD with no major events to keep on the radar. That means short-term concerns regarding China might be the bigger driver for the NZD as well as the AUD in the week ahead. For China, the covid situation will be in focus, as well as any potential stimulus promises as well as the incoming Caixin PMI on Friday. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC delivered on expectations with a 50bsp hike as well as announcing a start to passive QT from the end of April by ending its reinvestment of maturing bonds. The bank upgraded both inflation and growth estimates as markets were expecting but did play a hawkish card by also increasing their neutral rate estimate to 2.5% from 2.25%. They acknowledged the growing risks from the current geopolitical situation but made it very clear that they are concerned about inflation and their hike of 50bsp showed that they think that policy needs to be normalized quickly (which some took as a hint that another 50bsp is on the way). The bank didn’t offer any additional clarity on QT but did note that they are not considering active QT of selling bonds just yet. Some conditionality also surfaced, where they explained that any sudden negative shocks to growth or inflation could see them pause hikes once they get closer towards neutral ( Gov Macklem also added that they might need to get rates slightly above neutral in the current cycle). Overall, it was a more hawkish than expected BoC decision, but interesting to note that STIR markets did not price in another 50bsp following the meeting (only a 25bsp) hike. We remain of the opinion that we are close to peak hawkishness for the BoC and are looking for the last push higher in the CAD for opportunities to sell. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand , global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility . We remain cautious oil , but geopolitics are a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Aggregate positioning was bullish yet again, but not as bullish as the prior week. We also started to see a first possibly sign that price action could have reached a bit of a top after recent BoC news have been priced in. We think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’re waiting for deeper pullbacks in AUDCAD & USDCAD for long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead It’s a very light econ calendar for Canada this week, which means risk sentiment and WTI will be interesting drivers to watch. The correlation between WTI and CAD has been mostly hit and miss over the past couple of weeks, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore Oil’s potential impact on CAD price action. Thus, the energy market will be in focus as usual where any oil-positive developments could support the CAD while any oilnegative news could pressure the CAD. As for risk sentiment, it’s interesting that the only high-beta major that held up okay last week despite risk off tones was the CAD. We’re not sure what to make of that right now, but know that if market sentiment deteriorates enough, that the CAD will not be able to stay immune to that.
by thunderpips
2
NZDCAD potential for bounce! | 7th April 2022Prics are consolidating in a triangle and abiding by an ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Buy Entry at 0.86503 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement . Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
by FXCM
NZDCAD potential for bounce! | 7th April 2022Prics are consolidating in a triangle and abiding by an ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our Buy Entry at 0.86503 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDCAD on a double top at the 0.618 🦐NZDCAD on the daily chart after the recent lows retraced exactly at the 0.618 Fibonacci level near to the 0.88 level. The market ended up creating a perfect double top and is currently testing a weekly support. How can we approach this scenario? Being both the double top and the 0.618 potential reversal point we will wait for a possible break below the support area and in that case we will move on the 4h timeframe to check for a possible entry point. According to Plancton's strategy if the conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice short order. ---- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
NZDCAD H4 Potential Bullish Momentum | 17th March 2022On the H4, price is abiding by the ascending trendline and near Buy Entry level of 0.87066 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially move towards Take Profit level of 0.88088 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection , along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDCAD H4 Potential Bullish Momentum | 17th March 2022On the H4, price is abiding by the ascending trendline and near 1st resistance level of 0.87066 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially move towards 2nd resistance level of 0.88088 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection, along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NSDCAD Analysis I Impulse Correction Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **NZDCAD is on its second push impulse wave, thus I expect a correction from previous resistance near 8760 area. It may return to support at 8708 or 8665, and then rise back to resistance 8760, and next stop 8920 zone. We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
by BKTradingAcademy
NZDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 28th Feb 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we can expect bullish continuation from our entry at 0.84905 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our take profit at 0.86403 which is a strong resistance and in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss, which coincides with the horizontal swing low support at 0.84137. 4 hours ago Comment: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM