Institutional Demand: NZD/CAD LongHey,
The last chart I want to share today is NZD/CAD which is beautiful in my opinion, just like the previous two pairs shared here. Most of you guys know how I trade and how mechanical everything is what I do, maybe you find similarities from the ideas. Most of my trading approach is even automated, most of the work is just watching this daily time-frame together with the 4hour. For NZD/CAD longs are in the cards, price has been very clear about this and the demand area shared above is the place where I expect price to bounce from.
I wish you a great year! Speak soon, probably.. :)
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
Nzd-cad
NZDCAD more downside awaits
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NZD/CAD Bearish ContinuationOn the 4hr chart, the NZD/USD seems to have resumed its downtrend, the confirmation has been triggered when the price moved below the 0.8640 support level (psychology zone), due to the rapid dip that occurred based on the market sentiments ahead of today’s data releases.
The previous correction was at the 23.6% fib reversal level, which looks good for the bears, and watching that falls below the MAs used on the chart ascertain a strong trend in the market. If the sellers are able to keep the price lower, then, the next mark is at the early Dec 2021 support zone located at 0.8550.
So, watch out and stay close.
NZD/CAD Full breakdown I will be doing a full breakdown from monthly to daily. Also I will be including Fundamentals that will help us out with the direction as well.
Monthly:
The price is currently rejecting a demand zone which is good because it can be a sign of a rejection to the up-side like it happened in the past.
Weekly:
The price is clearly over extended. When price is over extended we can expect a correction. If we take the fibonacci to measure the possible correction we can see that the .786 fibonacci level is in confluence with structure. We could expect the price to make a correction and reach the price of 0.88151.
Daily:
The price is bearish making lower lows and lower highs. We need to wait for the shift of the price to a bullish price.
Fundamentals:
To see this movement happen the base currency must be stronger than the quote currency for that specific period of time.
-If we look at the commitments of traders we have a good confirmation that base currency is currently stronger than quote. In the COT we can see that institutions closed 3,078 long and opened 7,862 shorts of the quote currency( CAD).
- Institutions opened 2,630 and also opened 5,939 shorts of the base currency(NZD)
-The base currency is stronger than the quote currency. We can definitely expect the movement to the upside.
With all the information that I gather we can see that there is a strong possibility for the movement to the upside happen.
NZDCAD potential short-term bullish bounce | 31st Dec 2021Price broke out of the descending trendline resistance, signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can expect that price would bounce from pivot level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish momentum is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is abiding to the ascending trendline support.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZD CAD-H4- Riding Trend Up toward 2022Happy New Year All!!! This New Year we are starting with a new strategy (G Money), new TP range and new targets.
NZD CAD H4 chart provided in the most simplistic way for your quick visual assessment and for a very easy reading by anyone.
We have some opened buy positions already with a target TP 3000 pips and estimated completion are time for this trades gonna be around one month. It is just an idea to be tested and the results of success or failure we gonna see in around 4 weeks time.
In the case of success, G Money makes some money! ;)
Strategy has been back tested until I did run out totally dry on historical trading data. Some minor human errors still happens due lack of concentration, tirednesses.
I do wish You all a very Successful trading in 2022!
PS:
Never trust 100% any TA, keep safeguards On, like as SL, TP , Alerts. In two words: Be smart!
TA analysis are not available for a public due testing, fine tuning & adjusting stage still in the progress.
It is not a financial guidance, advice or investment option. It is just an IDEA! ;)
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDCADTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.8717).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. NZDCAD is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 54.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.8738
TP2= @ 0.8754
TP3= @ 0.8766
TP4= @ 0.8795
TP5= @ 0.8832
SL= Break below S2
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💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDCADTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.8717).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. NZDCAD is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 54.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 0.8738
TP2= @ 0.8754
TP3= @ 0.8766
TP4= @ 0.8795
TP5= @ 0.8832
SL= Break below S2
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. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
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💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ?
Now, It's your turn !
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Possible Bullish Trend for -NZD/USDOn a short-term 2H chart
The price trends above the 200-day SMA and the price move all above the fibb reversal level.
Moreover, on the 4H chart the pair currently uses the 50-day SMA as support level at 0.8725, which might instigate a strong bullish trend push from the buyers, and it reveals their active participation in the market, despite the holiday.
So, stay on a lookout for breakout above the 0.8750,if that does not happen, then the bear could pull the price to the downward side of the market.
for Prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see potential for a break from our buy entry at 0.86861 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.87476 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDCAD potential for bounce! | 21 Dec 2021Prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see potential for a break from our buy entry at 0.86861 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.87476 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook.
2. Economic and health developments
We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices.
3. Global Risk Outlook
As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3309 with a net non-commercial position of +10630. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest net-long for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have increased their net-long despite the recent underperformance from the NZD.
5. The Week Ahead
With the RBNZ out of the way until February, the main focus for the NZD in the med-term will be key quarterly economic data points going into the Fed meeting (none of them are expected this week), and of course overall risk sentiment will be in focus in the short-term. The recent Omicron and Fed-inspired risk off has hit the NZD really hard. Given the economic and policy outlook we still see scope to upside in the NZD, but timing will be very important given the amount of uncertainty sparked by Omicron and the Fed. Barring any major Omicron updates it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on cross-asset implied volatility for signals of when some calm might be restored.
CAD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised by putting an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by projecting economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any medterm allocations to the upside in the CAD. Last week’s Oct CPI data was a good example of this where the currency saw outsized downside on an uninspiring print. It’s not that CPI was bad, it was broadly in line with expectations, but with all the positives already priced it would have taken a really exceptionally strong print to keep the CAD’s upside momentum going. Another interesting driver for the months ahead, which could put a break on the BoC’s hiking path, is the close to 350% debt to GDP for Canada, which will make it very painful if rates start rising and for some like HSBC means the hike cycle could be very short.
2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations
Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the medterm as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. Oil prices rallied after the US’s SPR release failed to spark any meaningful follow through, but last week’s covid scare was enough to see WTI drop over 12% in the session. Thus, this week’s upcoming OPEC meeting will be very important, as any announcement to pause planned productions cuts could spark some additional upside again.
3. Global Risk Outlook
As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -10940 with a net non-commercial position of - 14075. A lot of the previous froth that was priced into the CAD just a few weeks ago has arguably been substantially reduced given the oil and Omicron related downside in risk assets over the past few sessions. That means buying opportunities is starting to look attractive again.
5. The Week Ahead
The main calendar event for the CAD in the week ahead is Wednesday’s upcoming BoC meeting. At the meeting markets will be focused on whether the recent Omicron variant is of any major concern to the BoC and whether the bank is also growing more concerned about inflation like the Fed. With the overall economic outlook evolving broadly in line with the bank’s MPR , there is expectations that the bank could err on the hawkish side despite the Omicron concerns, which should be positive for the CAD. Attention will be placed on any comments regarding the output gap to see whether the bank sees the gap being closed earlier (possibly Q1) which would imply the bank is bringing forward hike projections.
Wait for confirmation signal and sell opportunity with NZDCADH1 time frame.
Structure: Downtrend.
After forming a double top reversal pattern with divergence signal, the price broke the Key level at 0.87000.
Wait for a retest and a signal to confirm the return of the downtrend, then you can look for selling opportunities.
The profit target is the 0.86500 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
NZDCAD bearish continuation | 9th Nov 2021Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where %K line touched the resistance level .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
NZDCAD bearish continuation | 9th Nov 2021 Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where %K line touched the resistance level.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
NZD/CAD:DOWNTREND | TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | PRICE WILL GO DOWN ?NZ unemployment in the three months to the end of September has slumped to 3.4 per cent, Stats NZ has reported. This date will let's grow the price ?
We think in Downtrend continuation....
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NZDCAD potential for bounce | 5th NovPrice is near the buy entry price of 0.88032 which is also 39.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially bounce from that level to the taker profit level of 0.89044 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic as it is at support level .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.