NZD-CHF
NZD/CHF long setupNZD/CHF is consolidating bounce off major trendline support, holds break above 20-DMA at 0.6898.
Kiwi is extending stellar quarterly NZ employment report led gains, while a big beat on the Chinese services PMI data for October also lends support to the antipodeans.
Technical studies support upside in the pair. RSI and Stochs are biased higher.
MACD is showing a bullish crossover on signal line and bullish divergence on RSI keeps scope for upside.
Price action currently struggling to break 50-DMA resistance at 0.6938. Break there finds next bull target at 0.7004 (200-DMA).
On the flipside, we see weakness in the pair closes below 20-DMA support at 0.6898.
Support levels - 0.6898 (20-DMA), 0.6882 (5-DMA), 0.6790 (trendline)
Resistance levels - 0.6938 (50-DMA), 0.70 (converged 100 & 200-DMA), 0.7020 (trendline)
Goo d to go long on break above 0.6938, SL: 0.6890, TP: 0.70/ 0.7020
NZD/CHF 1H Chart: Bears likely to prevailDuring the past seven weeks, the New Zealand Dollar has been weakening against the Swiss Franc, thus forming a descending channel. The latest up-wave within this pattern that began on October 25 has been seemingly constrained by another junior channel; however, its upper boundary still needs one confirmation.
The rate’s current position together with technical indicators suggest that the Kiwi is likely to edge lower in this session. A short-term target could be the 0.6840/60 area where the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the 23.6% Fibo and the weekly PP are located.
This territory is likely to hinder the rate for a while; however, the general direction should nevertheless be to the downside towards the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel and another long-term channel circa 0.6740/0.6760.
Long NZDCHFNZDCHF broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with September's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin.
My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0.
Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target.
These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure.
* End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
NZD/CHF 1H Chart: Kiwi tests channelThe Kiwi has been trading in a channel down against the Swiss Franc since mid-September. As apparent on the chart, the pair was stranded in a junior ascending channel during its last wave upwards. This has allowed to test the upper channel boundary.
Currently, the pair demonstrates two possible scenarios.
The more probable option is that the Kiwi would bounce off the given line and initiate a new wave down—a scenario likewise supported by converging technical indicators. However, in order to do so, the pair has to breach the 55-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 0.6990. The next level of significance is the weekly PP, the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.6% Fibo in the 0.6960/35 area.
Conversely, the Kiwi might decide to continue respecting the boundaries of the junior channel. The upside limit could be the weekly R1 or R2 at 0.7046 and 0.7104, respectively.
NZD/CHF could see breakoutFollowing a six-week depreciation against the Swiss Franc, the Kiwi managed to reverse early on September and recover half of the losses. This upward movement revealed the existence of a junior channel up. This pattern, however, is a part of a longer-period descending channel in force since mid-July.
The pair is gradually approaching the upper boundary of the senior pattern which is located near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the weekly R2 circa 0.7120. It is likely that this area is reached on Monday. Given that ascending wedge is generally a bearish formation, the Kiwi should break out to the upside, possibly using the aforementioned 0.7120 area as a reversal point. Subsequently, the downside target could be the 200-hour SMA and the 38.2% Fibo near 0.7020 a breakout of which should pave the way for a further decline.
If nothing changes in the direction of the pair, it might test the lower boundary of the senior channel in the medium term.
Bullish NZDCHF for 8/218/18's candle closed above the 3 SMMA after closing below on 8/17. Therefore, I am expecting 8/21's candle to close above the 3 SMMA .
I will be looking for buy signals on the hour time frame that look similar the buy signal on the daily that you see here (candle close below 3 SMMA , then candle close above 3 SMMA ).
This is a day trading technique and I will not hold any position over night.
My plan is to place 2 trades once I get a buy signal on the hour time frame. One trade will have a 20 pip stop and a 20 pip take profit target. The second trade will have a 20 pip stop and no take profit target. The second trade is designed to grab any strong bullish movement for the day. Each trade is worth 1% of my beginning daily account value.
NZDCHF Wait For Break Out Then BuyNZDCHF is showing a promising buy setup in the making. The price is now approaching a resistance that has been tested twice before. So statistically the chances of it breking are only increasing. Besides that we also see that Stoch indicator has lots of upwards momentum left.
Possible target is 0.7776
NZDCHF QUICK SHORT TO THE DOWNSIDEHi traders:
Here we have a quick opportunity to go short on NZDCHF. I am bias on bearish on all NZD pairs, and NZDCHF is one of them that gives a clearer entry point. We are seeing a nice bearish flag pattern developping on the 1 hr chart, and potential targeting the recent lows.
TP1: 0.6965
TP2: 0.0625
Thank you for your support and feedback.