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Nzd-jpy

NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3309 with a net non-commercial position of +10630. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest net-long for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have increased their net-long despite the recent underperformance from the NZD. 5. The Week Ahead With the RBNZ out of the way until February, the main focus for the NZD in the med-term will be key quarterly economic data points going into the Fed meeting (none of them are expected this week), and of course overall risk sentiment will be in focus in the short-term. The recent Omicron and Fed-inspired risk off has hit the NZD really hard. Given the economic and policy outlook we still see scope to upside in the NZD, but timing will be very important given the amount of uncertainty sparked by Omicron and the Fed. Barring any major Omicron updates it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on cross-asset implied volatility for signals of when some calm might be restored. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Oct meeting the BoJ left policy settings unchanged with rates kept at -0.10% and the JGB yield target kept close to 0%. As usual we saw BoJ’s Kataoka as the only dissenter on YCC. In terms of the economic projections, the bank lowered both their growth and inflation targets as was previously reported prior to the meeting. The bank lowered FY2021 GDP to 3.4% from the prior 3.8%, and lower FY2021 Core CPI to 0.0% from the previous 0.6%. The bank’s outlook report once again explained that Japan’s consumer inflation is likely to gradually grind higher and noted that exports and output are currently weak due to the ongoing supply constraints. However, as with their prior meeting the bank explained that both exports and output is increasing as a trend. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda said that a soft JPY raises costs for households and imports but that he does not think current JPY weakness is a bad thing. He further added that it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals and that he thinks the JPY’s current price action reflects the fundamentals. The Governor also added that YCC could lead to a weak JPY as it widens interest rate differentials. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive, we think that opens up more room for curve flattening to take place with US02Y likely pushing higher while US10Y underperform. In this environment we do see some mild upside risks for the JPY, but we should not look at the influence from yields in isolation and also weigh it up alongside underlying risk sentiment. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +18387 with a net non-commercial position of -78866. The risk off tones during the past two weeks and the subsequent gains in the JPY showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of mean reversion when risk sentiment deteriorates. 5. The Week Ahead This week, the focus for the JPY will be on any further developments with the new Omicron variant with good news expecting to weaken the JPY and bad news expecting to support it. Apart from risk sentiment, keeping a close eye on US10Y and the US yield curve will also be important given the current take from various market participants that the Fed’s aggressive policy path runs the risk of materially denting the med-term growth and inflation outlook.
by thunderpips
22
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Currently we do see more downside risks compared to upside risks for US10Y as we think markets have been too aggressive for what they have priced in for the Fed for 2022. If yields continue to drift lower as we saw on Friday last week, that could see further JPY gains and remains a key asset to keep track of.
by thunderpips
1
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front). JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Currently we do see more downside risks compared to upside risks for US10Y as we think markets have been too aggressive for what they have priced in for the Fed for 2022. If yields continue to drift lower as we saw on Friday last week, that could see further JPY gains and remains a key asset to keep track of. 3. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +12225 with a net non-commercial position of -93126. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. However, Friday’s risk off flush as a result of the covid developments in South Africa showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration in our trading. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of some mean reversion. This week, the focus for the JPY will be on any further developments with the new Omicron variant with good news expecting to weaken the JPY and bad news expecting to support it. However, just keep the downside risk for JPY pairs in mind if we see a continuation in the risk off flows as well as the downside we’ve seen in yields last week.
by thunderpips
2
NZDJPY bearish continuation | 29th Nov 2021Price broke out of the ascending trendline support, signifying bearish momentum. We can expect price to push further down from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Our bearish bias is further supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator where price is holding below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
NZDJPY bearish continuation | 29th Nov 2021 Price broke out of the ascending trendline support, signifying bearish momentum. We can expect price to push further down from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator where price is holding below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDJPY looking for an inversion? 🦐NZDJPY aftter the recent high hit perfectly the weekly resistance and started a retracement move. The market is currently moving into a descending channel and approaching the 0.5 Fib support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will provide us an inversion over the 0.5 or the 0.618 we will check for a noce long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
22
AUDJPY is on a bearish momentum! | 24 Nov 2021Prices are on a bearish momentum and consolidating in a bearish channel. We see potential for a sell entry at 83.269 in line with 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 82.157 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most important part of the statement was that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2% midpoint over the med-term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the Aug meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the med-term outlook for CPI and employment, which means keeping close tabs on the data and covid will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains bullish , and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. The upcoming Nov meeting will be an important one so make sure to catch up for this in our Must-Read Section of the terminal. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news last week with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets or the RBNZ had expected and is part of the reason why some participants are looking for a 50bsp hike from the RBNZ this week. Whether 25 or 50, the chance for tradable volatility is definitely there this week. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -979 with a net non-commercial position of +12882. The NZD now reflects the 2nd biggest netlong positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. This is important to know going into the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday as it means the bar is higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. As long as the bank doesn’t downgrade their OCR projections, the carry component of the NZ cash rate will be an important driver to watch in the year ahead. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Currently we do see more downside risks compared to upside risks for US10Y as we think markets have been too aggressive for what they have priced in for the Fed for 2022. If yields continue to drift lower as we saw on Friday last week, that could see further JPY gains and remains a key asset to keep track of. 3. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2273 with a net non-commercial position of -105351. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. However, Friday’s risk off flush as a result of the covid developments in Europe showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration in our trading. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of some mean reversion. No harm done in waiting for some of the froth to clear out before looking for new JPY shorts. As always, any major risk off flows is expected to support the JPY, especially with its sizable net-short position still built up in the currency for large speculators as well as leveraged funds.
by thunderpips
NZDJPY is on a bearish momentum! | 19 Nov 2021Price is consolidating in a parallel channel. We see a potential sell entry at 80.672 in line with 127.2% and 100% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 80.133 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDJPY is on a bearish momentum! | 18 Nov 2021Prices are abiding to a bearish trendline . We spot a potential sell entry at 80.299 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 79.763 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
NZDJPY is on a bearish momentum! | 18 Nov 2021Prices are abiding to a bearish trendline. We spot a potential sell entry at 80.299 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 79.763 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDJPY bullish momentum! | 17 Nov 2021Price is on a bullish momentum and has recently broken out of our ascending trendline. We see a potential inverse head and shoulders for prices to retest the trendline. Our buy entry at 79.968 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 80.867 in line with 100%, 100% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Long
by FXCM
1
NZDJPY bullish momentum! | 17 Nov 2021Price is on a bullish momentum and has recently broken out of our ascending trendline. We see a potential inverse head and shoulders for prices to retest the trendline. Our buy entry at 79.968 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 80.867 in line with 100%, 100% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Long
by Rockqet
NZDJPY Bullish Continuation Price Action Hello traders: Still eyeing the strength in NZD pairs, and here on NZDJPY price has formed another bullish continuation correction. We can see several impulse phases, follow by correction phases. No difference here on the latest development. A bullish continuation price action, with a few swing highs and lows, double bottoms, ready to impulse up. Watch for lower time frame continuations, and look for recent highs and higher time frame highs as a potential targets. Thank you
Long
by jojofang0901
16
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4955 with a net non-commercial position of +13861. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the shortterm though, risk sentiment will be important as always, and also watching for potential cross flow influences from AUDNZD movements. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. 3. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -588 with a net non-commercial position of -107624. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. Even though the bias for the JPY remains firmly tilted to the downside, the moves across JPY pairs is arguably still looking stretched, and with both large speculators and leveraged funds firmly in net-short territory the odds of some mean reversion has increased. We would prefer waiting for some of the froth to mean revert before looking for new JPY shorts. As always, any major risk off flows can still support the JPY, especially with quite a sizable net-short position still built up in the currency for large speculators as well as leveraged funds, but rates have been the key driver in the short-term. The recent violent repricing in bond markets saw a huge push lower in yields that has supported the JPY, if that continues and we also see some risk off tones keep the stretched positioning in mind as it could see a big unwind if conditions align correctly.
by thunderpips
1
I'm in an NZDJPY short 📉👍We are using our trend following EDGE strategy for this trade. Entry details are shown on the chart. Trade has been live since 3:30am UK time. Working the 30M time frame here and we're only looking for TP3. Previous two trades can been seen on chart one found TP and one found SL. Lets see how trade number three plays out. As always trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
2
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4955 with a net non-commercial position of +13861. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the shortterm though, as we mentioned above, the virus situation could see some of the recent upside given back, and also keep overall risk sentiment in mind which saw the NZD failing to benefit from the stellar quarterly jobs data released last week. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -588 with a net non-commercial position of -107624. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. Even though the bias for the JPY remains firmly tilted to the downside, the moves across JPY pairs is arguably still looking stretched, and with both large speculators and leveraged funds firmly in net-short territory the odds of some mean reversion has increased. We would prefer waiting for some of the froth to mean revert before looking for new JPY shorts. As always, any major risk off flows can still support the JPY, especially with quite a sizable net-short position still built up in the currency for large speculators as well as leveraged funds, but rates have been the key driver in the short-term. The recent violent repricing in bond markets saw a huge push lower in yields that has supported the JPY, if that continues and we also see some risk off tones keep the stretched positioning in mind as it could see a big unwind if conditions align correctly.
by thunderpips
1