Get started

Nzd-jpy

NZDJPY under bullish pressure | 25 June 2021NZDJPY drifted higher and is approaching our take profit level at 78.815. This also finds confluence with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and also the high of 15 June 2021. With price holding above moving average, it is possible for an intraday bounce above our entry and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 78.240. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
NZDJPY facing bearish pressure|23rd June 2021Prices are facing bearish pressure from descending trendline resistance in line with horizontal pullback resistance in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices might push down towards horizontal swing low support in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If prices continue to push up further, prices might face resistance from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension Fibonacci confluence zone. Stochastics is also approaching 95.28 level, with potential for reversal. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
NZDJPY approaching pivot, potential for bounceNZDJPY is approaching pivot in line with horizontal overlap support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards horizontal swing high resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If prices continue to push down, prices might take support from horizontal swing low support in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 88% Fibonacci retracement. MACD is also showing more of a bullish pressure on prices.
Long
by FXCM
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The AUD suffered the biggest outflow amongst the major with the CFTC data updated until Tuesday the 8th of June, which should arguably not be surprising given the prior outperformance in the currency before that happened. This week the focus for the AUD turns to the incoming Employment report where labour data has been touted by many as the most important consideration for the RBA regarding potential policy changes or updates. For the NZD we have Q1 GDP data coming up which should provide us with an interesting outcome on our AUDNZD short trade. The recent underperformance of the NZD has been quite surprising, and our view that the fundamental outlook points to further strength has been shared by numerous investment banks. We’ll see whether GDP data is what the NZD needs to move back in line with its underlying bias. For the CAD, positioning is something that we are focused on, especially with the CAD trading “elevated” against numerous currencies, we need to be mindful of some possible mean reversion. JPY, CHF & USD: Our fundamental outlook for the US Dollar has shifted from Weak Bearish to Neutral. The assessment of risk to the currency is more balanced in our view as we head closer and closer towards potential tapering by the Fed. Apart from that, real yields are expected to remain a key driver in the short-term and something we will use for potential short-term direction bias alongside incoming economic data points. This week, the main event for the US Dollar will of course be the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the elephant(s) in the room will be the massive upside surprises in US CPI readings compared to the FOMC’s March projections, as well as what the bank will have to say about tapering discussions (those ones that Fed Powell said they haven’t been having but the April minutes showed they have) For the JPY, the ongoing divergence between US10Y and the safe-haven currency will be a focus point of ours this week. As the Fed and quad witching is in the mix this week we need to keep safe-haven flows in mind this week as a potential supporting factor if equities see some jitters. GBP: Even though the bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, as the third largest net-long position among the majors we do need to be mindful of the current short-term risks for the currency. We received confirmation that the UK’s planned reopening on the 21st of June will be delayed by four weeks. This was already touted last week so the impact might be lesser this week, and also due to the fact that it won’t derail the economic recovery which means the outlook is still favourable. However, coupled with the ongoing Northern Ireland Protocol issues with the EU we need to be mindful of some potential risk premium build up in Sterling which could translate into some short-term downside. We would consider any sizeable corrections as opportunities to engage from better levels, especially against the EUR and the JPY. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 8 June 2021.
by thunderpips
NZDJPY on a bear flag 🦐NZDJPY is moving inside a minor ascending channel for a test of the 0.5 Fibonacci level. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break the flag we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
8
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday. For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive. In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks. JPY, CHF & USD: Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be. In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar. What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds. With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data. Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained. Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends. Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members. It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
14
NZDJPY for new recent highs 🦐NZDJPY after the break of the descending channel reached a minor resistance. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
10
New Zealand Dollar: NZD/JPY May Rise Post RBNZ, Triangle Break?The New Zealand Dollar may rise in the aftermath of the RBNZ rate decision, where the central bank offered hints at a rate hike during the second half of 2022. It could capitalize particularly against the Japanese Yen, where the BoJ may remain more dovish in the long run. NZD/JPY is attempting to break above an Ascending Triangle, where confirming the breakout could open the door to resuming the dominant uptrend towards peaks from 2018 and 2017. Still, a key risk to the downside could be a material shift in market sentiment that fuels demand for the haven-linked Yen. But, ongoing easing and hesitation to taper from the Fed could keep market sentiment rosy for the time being. Negative RSI divergence does warn that upside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn lower. In the event of a drop, keep a close eye on the floor of the triangle as well as the 100-day SMA. These may reinstate the focus to the upside as key support. FX_IDC:NZDJPY
by QM_Dubrovsky
NZDJPY Short off Retest of Trend LineIf you follow me on various social media, you know I have been long in general on the NZD. However, we have a super solid short entry here. Let's take a look. On the 4H chart, we can see a trend line that has held for a few months, since March 21st. This is a relatively solid trend line, as it has been respected 5 times. A few days ago we firmly broke that trend line to the downside. At this point, I put this pair in my watchlist to wait for a retest. And sure enough, we're getting one. Here's the 4H chart below. Keep in mind that at the time of this writing, there are still two hours left in this candle. Now, let's take a look at the 1H chart. The big green candle shows price accelerated into the retest line. However, it was met with a doji, followed by two very bearish candles. Both red candles have long upper wicks (as does the doji) and closed significantly lower. This is a good sign that a reversal is happening. So, let's enter! I will be entering with 2% risk. However, the RBNZ statement is tonight. If we have not hit TP1 by the time the RBNZ nears, I will likely close half of my position and move stop to entry, and get rid of my TP1. Hopefully we can gather some pips to be in a good position before the RBNZ statement and presser. I am in short at 78.755 with: Stop at 79 TP1 at 78.5 (where I will close half of my position and move stop to entry) Limit at 78 Risk of 2%
Short
by MRobertsTrading
NZDJPY facing bearish pressure, drop incoming!Prices are facing bearish pressure and might continue its bearish moves downwards if it breaks through support level which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down further and take support from 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. If prices reverses from pivot, prices might face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. However, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back. 3. The country’s economic and health developments With the new macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government, it will be very important to keep close track of the virus situation in NZ as well as the incoming data. Due to the recent Macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government our focus has turned to the incoming economic data as a guideline for whether the RBNZ will potentially move forward with tapering QE this year or not. This week’s CPI data surprised to the upside, and even though it was just marginally above expectations, it was the first important quarterly data suggesting that everything is still intact for the bank to follow in the BOC’s footsteps sometime this year. Incoming data could still change that view, but for now the fundamental outlook for the NZD remains bullish.
by thunderpips
2