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NZD (New Zealand Dollar)

GBPNZD Breakdown – Smart Money Turns Fully Bearish🧠 Macro + COT + Sentiment Context Commitment of Traders (COT) – Asset Managers Institutional asset managers are significantly net short on GBPNZD, with positioning at its lowest level of the year and declining sharply since May. This reflects a clear bearish stance from smart money and reinforces the current downward pressure. Sentiment & Momentum Indicators DPO: -54.9 → Indicates a moderately bearish momentum phase. Wyckoff: -20.3 → Price is in a distribution phase, suggesting weakness. Speed: 3.2 → Low acceleration, but directional bias remains bearish. Market Mood: Neutral, but leaning into oversold territory. Seasonality (July 1st – Sept 30th) Historically, GBPNZD performs positively in this period: 3Y: +1.7%, 5Y: +1.6%, 10Y: +2.3%, 15Y: +2.8% However, in 2025, price is diverging sharply from seasonal norms. The pair is trading against historical patterns, suggesting a seasonal anomaly where institutional flow is dominating historical behavior. 🧱 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart) GBPNZD had been consolidating in a clear range between 2.2170 support and 2.2750 resistance since May. The pair has now broken down with a strong, full-bodied weekly candle, closing below the 2.2320 demand zone. Key Technical Zones: Supply zone (2.2494–2.2659) → A clear rejection zone that initiated the current selloff. Demand zone (2.2170–2.2300) → Has been tested twice already, increasing the probability of a clean breakdown. RSI (Daily) → Currently neutral, with a sequence of lower highs and no bullish divergence in sight — indicating weak momentum. ✅ Conclusion & Trade Plan Directional Bias: Bearish (Short) Although seasonality typically supports bullish price action for GBPNZD in Q3, the current context is decisively bearish. Institutional positioning, price structure, and sentiment all confirm a potential shift in direction, reinforced by a confirmed weekly breakdown. Bearish Targets: 📍 First: 2.2170 (recent support test) 📍 Second: 2.2000–2.1900 (April swing low) 📍 Extension: 2.1750 (base of previous accumulation zone) Invalidation Criteria: A weekly close above 2.2490 (supply zone breached) Bullish RSI divergence + weekly recovery candle
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
"NZD/CAD Reversal Play – Ride the Bullish Wave!🦹‍♂️💰 "THE KIWI-LOONIE HEIST: High-Voltage Forex Robbery Plan (NZD/CAD)" 💰🦹‍♂️ 🌍 Attention all Market Pirates, Thieves & Profit Bandits! 🌍 🔥 Thief Trading Alert – NZD/CAD Bullish Heist Setup! 🔥 The "Kiwi vs Loonie" is setting up for a high-risk, high-reward robbery—and we’re locking in the master plan. Long entry is the play, but this ain’t for the weak hands. Overbought? Consolidation? Reversal trap? Perfect. That’s where we strike. 🎯 THE HEIST BLUEPRINT 🔑 ENTRY ZONE (Breakout & Retest Strategy) "Wait for the 4H candle to CLOSE ABOVE 0.82600 (MA Breakout + Retest)." Option 1: Place a BUY STOP above the MA (momentum confirmation). Option 2: BUY LIMIT near recent swing lows (15M/30M precision). 🚨 Set an ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout—timing is everything. 🛑 STOP LOSS (Escape Route) SL at 0.82000 (near swing low wick on 4H). ⚠️ Golden Rule: NO ORDERS BEFORE BREAKOUT! Wait for confirmation. Adjust SL based on your risk, lot size, and multi-order strategy. 🎯 TARGETS (Profit Escape Plan) Take Profit 1: 0.83300 (First resistance). Or… Exit Early if the market turns shaky. Scalpers: Long-only scalp plays! Use trailing SL to lock in gains. ⚡ THIEF TRADER PRO TIPS ✅ Fundamental Backing: Check COT reports, macro trends, intermarket signals. ✅ News Alert: Avoid new trades during high-impact news—protect open positions with trailing stops. ✅ Risk Management: Small lots, multiple entries = smarter heist. 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! (Let’s Get Rich Together) 💥 👉 Smash that 👍 LIKE button to fuel our next robbery plan! 👉 Follow for daily high-voltage setups. 👉 Comment "🚀" if you’re joining the heist! 🤑 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… STAY TUNED, BANDITS! 🤑 🔥 WHY THIS TRADE? (Thief’s Edge) Bullish momentum but trapped bears = perfect robbery setup. Institutional levels + retail traps = our opportunity. Not financial advice—just a well-planned theft. 😉 ⚠️ Warning: Trading = Risk. Only play with funds you can afford to lose.
Long
by The-Thief
GBPNZD Will Explode! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GBPNZD is below: The market is trading on 2.2361 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 2.2454 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
GBP/NZD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG Hello, Friends! We are going long on the GBP/NZD with the target of 2.262 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long
by EliteTradingSignals
1
Bullish bounce for the Kiwi?The price is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.6038 1st Support: 0.5999 1st Resistance: 0.6079 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
GBPNZD Analysis — 4H Chart ReviewI’m watching GBPNZD for a potential bullish continuation after a successful retest of the long-term ascending trendline. Price rejected near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle and showed bullish momentum right off that support. My structure suggests potential upside targets at 2.25559 (minor resistance) and 2.26854 (upper triangle boundary/major resistance zone). 🔍 Fundamental Context: 🇬🇧 GBP Fundamentals: UK CPI came in softer than expected, and BoE rate cuts are slowly being priced in for late 2025. However, BoE still sounds relatively hawkish compared to RBNZ due to inflation persistence in services. Strong UK wage growth and sticky inflation give GBP some near-term yield support. 🇳🇿 NZD Fundamentals: RBNZ remains on hold, but dovish tilt noted in recent communications. NZD under pressure from falling dairy prices and weak global growth sentiment (especially China). Risk-off flows and Fed hawkishness keep NZD vulnerable as a high-beta currency. ⚠️ Risks to the Setup: A surprise hawkish turn from RBNZ or better-than-expected NZ data could boost NZD. Renewed UK political instability or weak retail sales data may pressure GBP. Broader market risk sentiment — NZD may strengthen if risk-on returns and US yields drop. 🗓️ Key News/Events to Monitor: UK Retail Sales (July 25) RBNZ Governor Orr Speech (if scheduled) US PCE (for global risk impact) Chinese macro data (indirect NZD driver) 🔁 Leader/Lagger Perspective: GBPNZD often leads EURNZD during GBP-specific catalysts (BoE speeches, UK CPI). It lags NZDUSD and NZDCAD when risk sentiment or commodity cycles dominate. 📌 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints I'm bullish on GBPNZD in the short term, especially after a strong trendline retest and recovery off the 2.2450 zone. Fundamentals support GBP resilience over NZD due to relatively hawkish BoE stance and weaker New Zealand data. The main risk to this setup would be a dovish BoE surprise or strong NZ commodity-led rebound. I'll be watching UK Retail Sales and general risk sentiment closely. This pair can act as a leader during UK-specific news but becomes a lagger when risk flows dominate broader NZD direction.
Long
by ultreosforex
2
Kiwi climbs on risk-on flow – chart says more to come? The New Zealand dollar strengthened to around 0.6045, its highest level in over a week, supported by improved global risk sentiment following a breakthrough U.S.–Japan trade agreement. The agreement, which lowers tariffs and boosts bilateral investment, triggered a surge in Japanese markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped more than 3%, hitting a one-year high. The breakout in NZDUSD was accompanied by a series of bullish candles with little to no upper wicks, evidence of minimal rejection from sellers. The most recent candles are consolidating just below the 0.6055 zone, which aligns with minor resistance from July 4. Rejection from this area—especially if it prints a bearish engulfing or shooting star pattern—could signal a short-term pullback. On the downside, immediate support is now at 0.6000. If broken, the next support potentially lies around 0.5980, which was the last major swing low before the breakout.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPNZD - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermM15 - Strong bearish move. No opposite signs. Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by VladimirRibakov
NZDCHF - Follow the Bears!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈NZDCHF has been overall bearish , trading within the falling orange channel and it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, it is rejecting a structure marked in blue. 📚 As per my trading style: As #NZDCHF is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following sell setups on lower timeframes. (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
14
Could the Kiwi reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support which is an overlap support. Pivot: 0.6038 1st Support: 0.5979 1st Resistance: 0.6115 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
The Layout tool that Changed the Game for MeTradingView’s layout tool has really helped me stay focused. Using the 1-hour on the left and the 4-hour on the right gave me clarity. The 1H showed many Fair Value Gaps, but it was hard to know which one to trust. The 4H chart made it easier. It showed one clean FVG lining up with the 50 to 61.8 Fib zone. That is the area I will wait for. If price returns to that zone and I see a clear bearish confirmation candle, I will take the trade with confidence. This layout tool has improved my analysis. I will make a short video soon to show how I use it. Big thanks to TradingView for building tools that make trading simpler and smarter.
Short
by J4mesWick
GBPNZD to form a higher low?GBPNZD - 24H expiry The medium term bias remains bullish. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Bespoke support is located at 2.2515. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. We look to Buy at 2.2515 (stop at 2.2475) Our profit targets will be 2.2675 and 2.2710 Resistance: 2.2660 / 2.2720 / 2.2770 Support: 2.2510 / 2.2420 / 2.2375 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA