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NZDUSD

NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China. The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD. USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair. Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain. Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength. In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
NZDUSD ready to go up after failing to make new lows?NZD/USD has experienced a decline of 5.12% since 27 September, establishing a bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart. However, on 10 October, the pair began to break out of this bearish trend line, signalling a potential pause in the prevailing bearish momentum. On 15 October, NZD/USD retraced, forming a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart. Notably, the price was unable to breach the previous support level of 0.6050, suggesting stabilisation in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated a value of 21.06 on 24 September. By 15 October, the RSI had risen to 34.10, demonstrating higher lows in the RSI while the price made lower lows — a condition that characterises classical bullish divergence. CPI Data and Its Impact From a macroeconomic perspective, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in lower than expected (0.6% actual versus 0.7% forecast), which tends to be negative for the NZD and that is what caused the downward movement on October 15th. However, since the price failed to break below the previous low, this shows that the selling force is currently showing signs of exhaustion. Key Elements to Consider: 1. Significant downward movement since 27 September, resulting in a depreciation of over 5% in NZD/USD. 2. RSI reading below 30 on 10 October, suggesting exhaustion of the selling momentum. 3. Breakout from the downtrend line on the 4-hour chart. 4. Formation of a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart. 5. Classical bullish divergence is observed on the 4-hour chart. Potential for Ascendancy Given the above elements, if NZD/USD manages to surpass the 0.6090 level, it is likely that the currency pair will ascend towards the 0.6160 region within the coming days, where it may face temporary resistance. A Bullish Turn on the Horizon? In conclusion, while recent indicators and patterns suggest a potential bullish reversal for NZD/USD, traders should remain cautious of external factors that may influence market dynamics. As always, close monitoring of price action and macroeconomic developments will be key in navigating this trading opportunity. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
1
NZDUSD Analysis for 16/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias ExpectedIntroduction As of 16th October 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar) pair shows a slight bullish bias in today’s trading session. A combination of fundamental factors, economic data releases, and market sentiment are all playing a pivotal role in driving this price action. In this article, we will break down the key drivers for the potential bullish trend in NZDUSD today, with a focus on the latest developments in the global economy, central bank policies, and market conditions. Key Drivers for NZDUSD Bullish Bias 1. New Zealand Economic Data Strength One of the primary factors contributing to the slight bullish bias in NZDUSD is the recent release of positive economic data from New Zealand. Key indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales have come in stronger than expected, supporting the NZD. The New Zealand economy continues to exhibit resilience despite global challenges, and this has attracted investors towards the Kiwi dollar. In the latest report, New Zealand’s consumer sentiment index showed improvement, reflecting increased consumer confidence. This suggests that domestic demand is picking up, which is supportive of the New Zealand Dollar’s strength. As a result, this economic optimism is likely to boost NZDUSD. 2. RBNZ Hawkish Stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future to combat inflation. Although inflation remains elevated globally, New Zealand’s inflation figures are closely monitored by the RBNZ, and the central bank is prepared to act if needed. A potential rate hike would increase the attractiveness of the NZD in the forex market. The US Federal Reserve, by contrast, is leaning towards a more neutral stance, with expectations that interest rates may have peaked for the time being. This divergence in monetary policy between the RBNZ and the Federal Reserve is providing support to NZDUSD, as a more hawkish RBNZ outlook favors the New Zealand Dollar. 3. US Dollar Weakness On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar has experienced some softness amid mixed economic data and shifting market sentiment. The recent US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation cooling, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. As inflation shows signs of easing, investors are beginning to price in the possibility of a Fed pause, which has led to USD weakness. Additionally, political uncertainty in the US, particularly related to fiscal policy and government shutdown risks, is weighing on the USD. The combination of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve and domestic uncertainty is making the US Dollar less attractive, boosting the NZDUSD pair. 4. Global Risk Sentiment Risk sentiment in global financial markets is another critical driver of NZDUSD. As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar often performs well when risk appetite improves. Today, we see a more optimistic tone in equity markets as investors respond positively to the easing inflation pressures in the US and signs of stabilization in global growth. This “risk-on” environment typically benefits the NZD, and we are seeing this reflected in the slight bullish bias for NZDUSD. Moreover, China's economic stabilization efforts, especially in the property sector, have provided additional support for commodity-exporting countries like New Zealand, bolstering the NZD. 5. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has been testing key support levels in recent trading sessions, and a bounce from these levels is likely to fuel further upside. The 50-day moving average (MA) has recently crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a bullish “golden cross,” which is a positive signal for further upside movement in the short term. In addition, RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings are indicating that the pair is not yet in overbought territory, suggesting more room for the bullish momentum to continue. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on 16th October 2024, driven by several key fundamental factors. Strong New Zealand economic data, a hawkish RBNZ stance, US Dollar weakness, positive global risk sentiment, and favorable technical signals all contribute to the optimistic outlook for NZDUSD today. However, traders should remain cautious of any unexpected developments that could shift the market sentiment. Keywords: NZDUSD, New Zealand Dollar, US Dollar, Forex Analysis, 16th October 2024, bullish bias, RBNZ, Federal Reserve, US inflation, interest rates, forex market, technical analysis, risk sentiment, currency trading, New Zealand economy, NZD strength, TradingView analysis, forex forecast, USD weakness.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisNZD/USD is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
7
Kiwi H1 | Falling to 78.6% Fibonacci supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6069 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6040 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 0.6118 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
NZDUSD: Bullish Sentiment Backed by Math and History!Why Use Probabilities? In trading, probabilities help us make informed decisions based on mathematical rules and historical data. By analyzing past price movements and market behavior, we can identify patterns that suggest potential future outcomes. This approach allows us to assess the probability of reaching Take Profit Levels. Utilizing probabilities means I'm not just guessing; I'm relying on statistical evidence to position myself effectively in the market. This strategy helps manage risk and increases confidence in my trades, making it easier to navigate the uncertainties of forex trading. Let's dive in: 12M: 2W: 6H:
Long
by Jasminex1x2
1
Pullback resistance ahead?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6127 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6172 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.6053 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZD/USD Sellers Will Push for a Major Breakdown !The NZD/USD pair shows signs of potential bearish continuation after a recent pullback from the 0.61179 level. This zone acted as a resistance point where buyers temporarily pushed the price upward but failed to maintain the momentum. The price is now stalling just below 0.61094, indicating that bearish pressure is starting to outweigh buying interest. If this level holds as a resistance, the pair could break below the key support at 0.61006, triggering a larger move downwards. The projected bearish path suggests that once the support is broken, the next target would be 0.60861, followed by a further move towards 0.60543, a strong area of support from previous price action. This setup favors sellers in the short-to-medium term, especially if a clear rejection from current levels is confirmed. Traders should watch for a confirmed break below 0.61006 to initiate short positions, while a sustained move above 0.61179 would invalidate the bearish bias and open room for upside gains.
Short
by TopGBanks
Fresh demand zone in Nzdusd pair.A weekly strong demand zone.Hello everyone, we have identified a fresh demand zone in the NZD/USD pair. The recent move was strong, and the location of this demand zone is quite appealing. You can approach this trade in two ways: either set a buy limit at the weekly demand zone or wait for confirmation before entering. Personally, I use both strategies. Remember, it's crucial to always practice proper money management, and never trade without setting an appropriate stop-loss. Keep in mind that trading is a game of probabilities, and your success should be evaluated over a series of trades, not just one. Thanks!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn89138523
NZDUSD Is Going Down! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for NZDUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.610. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.605. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
#NZD/USD 1DAYNZD/USD 1D – Support Turned Resistance On the daily chart of the NZD/USD pair, a significant **support-turned-resistance** pattern has been identified. This is a bearish continuation signal, suggesting that the price is likely to move lower after retesting a previous support level, which is now acting as resistance. #Pattern Overview: -Support Becomes Resistance (SBR): After a breakdown below a key support level, the price has retraced to retest this level. What was once support has now turned into a resistance zone, confirming the bearish outlook. #Forecast: -Sell Signal: The forecast indicates a sell opportunity as the price is expected to reject the newly formed resistance level and resume its downward trend. This type of setup often leads to further declines in the price. ### Trading Strategy: -Entry Point: Enter a sell position when the price fails to break above the resistance level (previous support) and shows signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlesticks or other technical confirmations). Targets: The initial target for the downside move would be the next significant support level below the current price. Look for price action lows or Fibonacci extensions for potential target areas. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss above the resistance level to protect against any potential bullish breakout that might invalidate the bearish setup. This pattern indicates a continuation of the bearish trend in NZD/USD, with selling opportunities emerging as the previous support level now acts as a resistance barrier.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER