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Nzdusddaily

NZDUSD profit target reached, prepare to sellSell below 0.6883. Stop loss at 0.6920. Take profit at 0.6826. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has bounced up and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below 0.6883 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to 0.6826 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing resistance at 94% which RSI is fast approaching. RSI (34) has made a bearish exit and is approaching resistance once again where we expect a drop from. Correlation analysis: NZDUSD and AUDUSD are positively correlated meaning they usually move together in the same direction. We are expecting a rise on AUDUSD and a drop on NZDUSD so it is best to exercise caution on these trades.
Short
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD bounce caught perfectly, remain bullishBuy above 0.6818. Stop loss at 0.6789. Take profit at 0.6874. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price reached our buying level and has started to bounce up perfectly. We now remain bullish above 0.6818 support (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) and look for a bounce towards 0.6874 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing up nicely from our 9% support level. RSI (34) has made a bearish exit signalling that the overall momentum we’re expecting of NZDUSD is bearish. Correlation analysis: NZDUSD and AUDUSD are positively correlated meaning they usually move together in the same direction. We are expecting a rise on AUDUSD and a rise on NZDUSD which goes well with the positive correlation expected. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. Advance Retail Sales which is a monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. We’re expecting a positive value here meaning more consumer spending and confidence, leading to strength in the USD. This would go against our bullish NZDUSD view today hence is it best to exercise caution on this trade.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD bouncing up perfectly, remain bullishBuy above 0.6985. Stop loss at 0.6934. Take profit at 0.7092. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area previously and is on track to our profit target. We remain bullish above 0.6985 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to 0.7092 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). RSI (34) has made a really nice bullish exit signalling that a further bullish movement can be expected on NZDUSD.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZD/USD testing major support, remain bullishBuy above 0.6992. Stop loss at 0.6955. Take profit at 0.7091. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price is now testing major support at 0.6992 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support, Fibonacci extension) and we remain bullish above this level for a push up to 0.7091 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). When price surpasses our descending resistance line, that would give us further confidence of our bullish move up. Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 1.2% level. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of a decrease which means a bearish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bullish NZDUSD strategy view.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD 4-Hour Trend Line to Offer Selling OpportunityYesterday I mentioned the 0.7040/5 area on the NZDUSD. The idea was to watch for a session close (5 pm EST) below the area to confirm it’s holding as resistance. After jockeying back and forth for several hours, sellers made a final push that gave us a 0.7041 close. This is enough to keep the bearish pressure intact for now. For those still searching for a favorable selling opportunity, the 4-hour chart may offer a chance. The trend line that extends from the March 14th low is once again under pressure but appears to be holding on a 4-hour closing basis. We don’t have a confirmed setup just yet, but a close below the trend line followed by a retest as resistance could give us one. The next key support would come in at 0.6970 followed by the current 2017 low near 0.6890. At the moment buyers are having trouble getting any traction below the 0.7040 area. Also, the price action since the March 24th retest looks quite “heavy,” which is a concept I’ve written about previously. However, it’s important to stay patient and wait for a 4-hour close below the trend line. Until that happens, buyers still have a fighting chance, which is enough to keep me on the sideline.
Short
by Daily-Price-Action
NZDUSD: Watching 0.7040 for Directional CuesExactly one week ago the NZDUSD closed the day back above the 0.7040/5 area. The break came after the March 15th rally fell short of overcoming the region and the pair subsequently sold off on March 16th. However, last Tuesday’s session appears to have closed back below 0.7040/5. This suggests that the Monday break above the area was a false move. Furthermore, the final 72 hours of activity last week was once again capped by 0.7040/5 on a daily closing basis. The result was a weekly bearish pin bar, albeit not at a major swing high. Fast forward to today, and we can see that buyers are once again challenging the level. But as you may well know, I don’t pay much attention to intraday breaks such as this. Where the pair closes the session at 5 pm EST is much more important. For now, I’ll remain on the sideline until we have a clear indication of whether 0.7040/5 is holding as new resistance. If so, we could have a selling opportunity on our hands. Otherwise, a close back above the area would pave the way for a retest of 0.7133. This level served as support on two occasions in the second half of February and again on March 1st.
by Daily-Price-Action
NZDUSD Extends Recent Gains With a Close Above 0.7040Over the weekend I mentioned that we could get a range break opportunity from the NZDUSD this week. At the time the pair was trading between 0.6970 support and 0.7040/5 resistance. Given the technical landscape of the past few months, I was favoring a break to the upside. Yesterday’s close at 0.7052 appears to have given us that upside break. As such, any bullish price action on a retest of the 0.7040/5 area could present a buying opportunity. However, I’m hesitant to enter now given the upcoming RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday at 4 pm EST. The event is likely to cause unfavorable conditions which make an entry at the moment a little too risky. Of course, I could miss the opportunity altogether if I wait. If that happens, I’ll look to the next key level at 0.7133. A close above that would expose the next resistance level at 0.7240. Alternatively, a daily close back below 0.7040/5 would expose the 0.6970 handle followed by the recent swing low at 0.6890. I’ll likely remain on the sideline until the dust settles from this Wednesday’s RBNZ decision. Because the NZDUSD has been range bound for quite some time, I’ll consider any favorable buy or sell signals that form at key levels until conditions warrant a new approach.
Long
by Daily-Price-Action
NZDUSD Potential Range Break Opportunity This WeekThe NZDUSD could offer a range break opportunity this week. Despite gaining 125 pips following a more dovish than expected Fed, the pair fell short of overtaking the 0.7040 handle. Buyers also just barely missed out on a weekly bullish engulfing pattern. But despite the near miss, the rally that started on Wednesday may not be done just yet. In fact, given the technicals over the last few months, I’m favoring a break to the upside. However, I won’t enter until I see a daily close above 0.7040. Until that time comes, I’ll remain on the sideline. If we do get a bullish break from this range, a move toward resistance at 0.7133 would be the likely outcome. This level served as support twice last month as well as the first day of March. Key support for the week ahead comes in at Thursday’s low near 0.6970. This area served as a pivot in early January and is also the November 2016 low.
by Daily-Price-Action