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Nzdusdlong

NZD/USD: Rally Ahead or Downside Risk?Hello Traders, Trust you had a great weekend. Take a moment to read my analysis of the NZDUSD currency pair. Overview The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.58325, maintaining a clear downtrend on both the H1 and H4 timeframes. The pair remains confined within a bearish channel, reflecting continued selling pressure. Idea The price is currently testing a critical support zone, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the impulsive move from November 26th to November 29th. The current price action suggests a potential pause at this support level, indicating a possible rally if the zone holds. In a bullish scenario, the price is expected to advance toward the 0.5890 and 0.59016 resistance levels. However, the high at 0.5929 is not anticipated to be breached under the current outlook. Should the price break above this high, further upward momentum could extend to the 0.59692 zone before a likely reversal. On the other hand, a decisive break below the 0.57966 support would invalidate this bullish expectation and signal further downside potential. Conclusion While NZD/USD remains in a bearish trend, the current support zone presents a key inflection point. A rally is likely if the support holds, with resistance levels at 0.5890 and 0.59016 in focus. However, a breach below 0.57966 would confirm a continuation of the downtrend, nullifying the bullish outlook. Do let me have your thoughts guys. Cheers and have a great week.
Long
by Samuel124
2
NZDUSD break of daily structure .. the week of 02/12/2024A break of structure on the daily chart is a pretty big deal and we see that the kiwi has done that breaking to the upside. After being bearish for the past 2 months, NZDUSD is now bullish. Looking for an entry on the H4 chart, I like to take a fib of the last bullish move and have marked a zone (green) between the 50-61.8% retracement. If I see evidence of bullish price action here, I will be interested in taking a long entry. Stop will be below the recent swing low and will aim for the next resistance at 0.6000. This is not a trade recommendation, it is merely my own analysis. If you decide to trade this, you should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Long
by Trading_Vista
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: 50 or 75?Markets and economists widely anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will reduce the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.25% on Wednesday, a move that would push the OCR closer to neutral levels. Markets Fully Pricing in a 50 Basis Point Cut Markets are assigning a 60% chance that the RBNZ will opt for a 50 bp cut (60 bps of easing priced in), with a 40% chance that the central bank may swing for a bulkier 75 bp reduction. A 50 bp cut in the OCR would follow a 50 bp reduction in October and a surprise 25 bp cut in August. I expect the RBNZ to follow through and reduce the OCR by 50 bps this week. Inflation has cooled to 2.2% in Q3 24 and is now within the RBNZ’s target band of 1-3% for the first time since early 2021. Inflation expectations also remain pretty much anchored around the 2.0% mark. Economic activity (GDP – Gross Domestic Product) remains well and truly in the doldrums; Q2 24 data showed economic growth shrank by 0.2%, following a paltry 0.1% expansion in Q1 24. GDP per capita also contracted by 0.5% in Q2 24, coupled with a loosening jobs market. Employment growth showed a contraction of 0.5% in Q3 24, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since late 2020 (4.8% in Q3 24). However, on the other side of this fence, some desks – such as Goldman Sachs – highlight the possibility of a 75 bp cut given the economic downturn, increased unemployment, and the long break between now and the next meeting (mid-February next year), which could leave the central bank somewhat behind the curve. Global Risks Remain Uncertain The re-election of Donald Trump and potential tariff changes introduce a degree of unpredictability for New Zealand’s economy, particularly for tradeable inflation. Still, it is merely speculation at this point, and the implications for New Zealand's inflation are unclear. I anticipate that the November statement will reflect confidence in the progress made on inflation, and the central bank will emphasise a gradual approach to policy easing, contingent on incoming data. With that being said, considering the economic backdrop, I imagine the quarterly projections may reveal additional rate cuts next year, with CPI forecasts potentially being revised lower, with limited revisions for GDP growth metrics. NZD/USD in Focus A 75 bp cut would likely trigger enough of a ‘surprise’ and see the New Zealand dollar (NZD) sell off quite extensively, particularly against the US dollar (USD). In contrast, a 50 bp cut, which, as I noted above, is fully priced in, is unlikely to yield that much of a surprise/reaction, especially if dovish language is absent and the OCR projections are only moderately revised lower towards the end of 2025. I will be keeping a close eye on NZD/USD during the rate announcement. An outsized 75 bp cut might trigger a strong downside move in the pair, particularly as investors have pared back US rate-cut bets – markets are now just pricing in 13 bps of easing for December’s meeting – as well as the USD being bolstered by the incoming Trump administration and safe-haven demand. The monthly chart shows that price is trading at range support from N$0.5846, while the daily chart suggests scope to push for nearby support at N$0.5807. Therefore, daily and monthly support provides a ‘floor’ for potential buyers, which could hold if the RBNZ opts for a 50 bp cut. A 75 bp cut, nevertheless, could see the aforementioned support zone challenged. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets
NZDUSD forming a bottom?NZDUSD - 24h expiry Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 0.5825. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 0.5850 will confirm the bullish momentum. We look to Buy at 0.5825 (stop at 0.5799) Our profit targets will be 0.5885 and 0.5600 Resistance: 0.5850 / 0.5875 / 0.5880 Support: 0.5825 / 0.5815 / 0.5800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
NZDUSD is in the Selling DirectionHello Traders In This Chart NZDUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NZDUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NZDUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
ICT Long setup session trade, NOT swing trade NZDUSD👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in NZDUSD for session trade (a couple of Hours) Here is a session trade idea (since it is near support surface, we should use small lot size) Please refer to the details Stop loss, Buy Zone,open for take profit. Next Long entry after retracement in any session. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
NZDUSD forming a bottom?NZDUSD - 24h expiry Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. Pivot support is at 0.5925. We expect a reversal in this move. A move through 0.5950 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 0.6050. We look to Buy at 0.5925 (stop at 0.5885) Our profit targets will be 0.6025 and 0.6050 Resistance: 0.5950 / 0.6000 / 0.6050 Support: 0.5925 / 0.5900 / 0.5875 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
Is the Kiwi Ready to Bounce? Approaching Key Support!The Kiwi took a major hit in October, dropping sharply from the 0.638 resistance level, which has held strong for over two years. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the market has formed a clear range between 0.638 and 0.588—the lower level we’re now approaching. On the daily chart, the initial drop was intense, with strong selling momentum evident in large red candles. However, as the price dropped past the halfway point of the range, momentum began to ease. This slowdown is visible in the smaller, mixed red and green candles. This price action indicates that selling momentum is slowing as we approach the 0.588 level. In fact, the market has now started moving sideways, signaling that buyers may be accumulating at the bottom of the range. Given these signals, I’ll be looking for buy setups using my TRFX Indicator, focusing on the 4-hour to 8-hour timeframes. Ideally, I’d like to see another dip toward or even slightly below 0.59 before entering. The target for this setup is the top of the range, with the setup invalidated by a clear weekly break below the 0.588 support. Let me know what you think below! :)
Long
by TheFxAce
9
NZDUSD to turnaround?NZDUSD - 24h expiry Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 0.5925. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 0.5975 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 0.6025. We look to Buy at 0.5925 (stop at 0.5893) Our profit targets will be 0.6005 and 0.6020 Resistance: 0.5975 / 0.6000 / 0.6025 Support: 0.5925 / 0.5900 / 0.5875 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
NZD/USD Bullish reversal setup and trade planDivergence Setup: The RSI shows bullish divergence, where the price is making lower lows, but the RSI is making higher lows. This suggests a potential reversal to the upside. Trendline Break: A descending trendline has been drawn connecting lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) on the chart. The recent candle seems to be testing or breaking this trendline, which could signal a reversal if it holds above. Entry: A "Buy Limit" order is placed at 0.59820, just below the current price. This suggests waiting for a slight retracement for a better entry point. Stop Loss: The Stop Loss is set at 0.59498, below the recent low, aiming to protect the trade if the price moves against the setup. Take Profit (TP): TP1 at 0.60140, which is a conservative target. TP2 at 0.60460, a higher target. This trade plan is set up for a potential bullish reversal based on RSI divergence, trendline break, and Fibonacci retracement levels. The entry and take profit levels are positioned to capture gains if the price reverses upward, while the stop loss limits downside risk.
Long
by Naqash16046