NZX 50 INDEX BULL VS BEAR VIEWSHello,
Very interesting developments right now in the NZX - it only recently seems to have recovered from the 2008 economic shock... and then this happens. Wave A was clearly defined and there are 5 sub-waves that are valid and meet all extensions / dimensions. Then things get a little complicated, Wave B seems to have taken the form of an expanding symmetrical triangle (its not a wedge, expanding or otherwise, as the upward waves seem to have 5 sub-waves - as opposed to a 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 count).
Scenario 1: BEARISH. I don't see many symmetrical expanding triangles in the B position. If it is a B wave then there should be a 5 wave down-move that follows this present swing high to form wave C. This would mean a 16 to 20+% drop. If it drops below the red line, which marks my wave 1 top (the first and only plausible wave 1 top) and definitely discounts the possibility that wave 5 is yet to come (it must have already happened) - and to expect further correction.
Scenario 2: BULLISH.
2a, This may be a little unorthodox. It may be that wave B happened and there is excess buying pressure that has flattened the 5 wave C move. This would result in quite a powerful upwards move shortly (no targets at this stage).
2b. Wave C is truncated and fails to break below the red line due to strong buying pressure / support. This would mean that wave 5 up into or over $160 is still in play.
I tend to se more of a bearish view unfortunately. I for one will be interested to see how things play out - so many of the world's sharemarkets seem to be in a corrective phase. This is not a professional publication - just a guy in his free time. Happy trading, protect yourself and thanks for viewing my post. You may not believe in Elliot Wave, but luckli belief isn't required (although possibly a more skilled technician than myself) so let's see how it all plays out.
