The stock market is not "Crashing"!I keep hearing people saying the stock market is crashing, a mild pullback is hardly a crash, we are not crashing, at least not yet, and maybe not for an extended period.
We use the S&P 500 because it is the best gauge of our markets with the most diverse representation of any of our indices.
A short history of the trend of our stock marker since 1992, correlated to presidencies.
1992-1999 Clinton: Stock market transitioned from fairly flat to a steady ascending path, we reduced our yearly deficit 6 years and had a budget surplus 2 years.
2000-2007 George Bush Jr: Descending or neutral trend most of the 8 years, we broke our 15 year ascending trend and started an overall descending trend. Deregulation led to the recession via predatory lending giving Walmart cashiers $300k loans, banks labeling bad debt as Grade A and banks leveraging 80% of all of Americans money on risky investments. 2008 was devastating for the US Stock market. Increased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2008-2015 Obama: Converted descending trend back to ascending trend and trended up in a tight ascending channel for the rest of his presidency, while implementing an array of regulations to prevent banks from doing this to America again. Decreased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2016-2020 Trump.v1: Maintained tight ascending channel and broke out of 15 year resistance, introduced a lot of lot of volatility and uncertainty, ultimately ended term with the market on the same trajectory it was when he took office. Diluted all US Dollars by 50%, 25% of the dilution was in 2020, coupled with $3T of quantitative easing in a single year (2020) and more than $2T direct stimulus, this dilution and excessive stimulus during a supply chain crunch directly conveyed into rising inflation the following 2 years. Increased our yearly deficit every year in office.
2021-2024 Biden: Broke out of ascending path to a much steeper and unsustainable ascending path, likely due to all the stimulus pumped into the market in 2020 & 2021. Hard pull back in 2021/2022 as Interest rates were increased to deter spending to reduce interest rates which skyrocketed to 10% in 2021 and was brought back down to just above 2% by 2024. We saw a volatile and sharp ascending channel form. At the end of his term, the market was at top of channel and well above all time highs with some of the most growth in the stock market ever witnessed anywhere on earth, ever, as seen in the charts, nearly doubling the S&P 500 in 4 years, the American economy was booming! Decreased the yearly deficit 2 of 4 years.
2025-2038 Trump.v2: Inherited the market at all time highs on the steepest incline we have witnessed to date, and at a point the market is expected to retract based on the charts. Currently it looks like the S&P could lose 15% or so of its value and still be in our ascending channel of 6 years now. As you can see recent pullbacks don’t even register on a weekly candle. Yes these tariffs and subsequent tariff wars will almost certainly wreak havoc on markets as we already see increase in unemployment, significant drops in consumer confidence, increase in debt ceiling, increase in debt through corporate tax breaks, uptick in inflation and uncertainty in policy but --- we still have a long way to fall before we can call this a bear market or a crash. If we do breakdown from the ascending channel, we can expect the S&P to eye around 3200, or nearly half of its current value. If this administration takes over the federal reserve, they can stimulate the economy to fight the decline and prolong the consequences but those measures will involve further dilution, further debt, further smoke in mirrors, further uncertainty and will likely ignite a ticking time bomb with even greater consequences then outlined here.
So in short, stop saying the market is crashing, it is not. But, be vigilant, there is a high probability of short term pullback and a long term crash based on the charts, historical precedence and current administrations activities.
Obama
CRUST: $0.74 | an Ambitious Engagementwhen Google's CEO Eric S. announced the cloud service project in 2000
it was alien to most.. especially to the number 1 Tech Leader Elison of Oracle..
I recall he said.. "what the hell is a CLOUD"
few years later a decade i think Obama launched the cloud project for the GOVERENMENT
i take it was a validation of Google CLOUD business which was DOMinATED by AMAZON shadowing Eric's key note
CRUST may just be the Google or AMAZON shadowing filecoin arweave and the OGs in the space
it only needs one POSTER BOY for POLKADOT to present... Just like AVALANCHE subtle deal with AMAZON
good luck.. this one is a gem if it pans out well in the next 100 dayys
DXY: anything can happen. LolHi Guys,
where do you think it's going? why? how? when?
Sorry, maybe I am asking too much. Lol
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
USDMXN will rocket up tomorrow with the government change in USAs we already saw in the previous debates and the day when the elections in the United States ended the Mexican peso suffers a lot in all that concerns to Donald Trump, the day he got elected this currency lost a lot of value against the USD.
The same thing will happen tomorrow, this is a total bullish forecast.
Short Term Smith and Wesson Presidential Debate TradeThe First Presidential Debate is looking more and more like it will decide this upcoming election, and If Hillary wins the debate, gun sales will surge due to peoples' fear that she will continue the Democratic gun control rhetoric and possibly policies of her predecessor.