BITCOIN - FIBB CHANNELS - WELL RESPECTED - DOLLAR ACCURACYLets make it simple !
All the asset movement are perfectly pre-planned by market makers. Our role as retail traders is to find out next move as soon as possible.
Thats why basic trader draw many lines and patterns on a small timeframe, but bigger more important overview of market is lost.
Importancy of ascending lines (for bulls control) and descending lines(for bears control) is much higher important than basic horizontals.
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Perfection, precision and objectivity are 3 factors why was drawn this fibonacci channels in upside and downside direction.
Please have a very close look to the places with dollar accuracy respect. And also lets focus on places where are small gaps and price didnt achieve channels line. Thats not inaccuracy, but for the purpose.
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Enjoy looking at this chart and remember the simple rule : resistance lines are changing to support lines and vice versa.
I like this game of probability
Good luck !
Objective
SPY Friday ICT Trading 1/27/23This is the truth. Another great trading day to cap off another green week. We are almost 3 weeks green and we have only learned ICT in about 3 weeks too. If that's not saying something, I don't know what will. Although every strategy can be profitable and profit is within every strategy.
Important thing I remebered:
"If there is no liquidity sweep, then you are still in trend" - ICT. What was the trend yesterday, what were direction were our objectives point to, what was weekly telling us? Bullish. That added even more confluence to the trade.
SPY ICT Trading Recap 1/24/23I might honestly stop posting these and start making my own journal and record them in there, I'm not sure. I love this but I don't want to bombard TradingView with all these videos everyday. So, starting tomorrow I will probably be done, not confirmed though. It was nice while it lasted though!
S&P 500 - Not Time to Get Bullish (yet)SP:SPX Hello traders. Let's take a look at the S&P500 to see if the chart matches the sentiment over the last few days.
In my opinion SPX isn't quite ready on higher time frames for serious bullishness. Others may disagree but when an objective method of trend analysis is applied to the weekly chart it becomes difficult to make a bullish argument. When two methods of objective trend identification are used and they both suggest a down trend, it is nearly impossible to draw another conclusion.
Now before anyone thinks that I'm bearish on the S&P500 let me put my personal stance in the spotlight. I'm actually trend neutral at this juncture due to the fact that higher time frames are ranging in a wide, slightly chaotic range. We'll objectively identify that as well, of course.
In the first photo of the SPX weekly chart I have used a method of trend identification identifying key levels of support and resistance. For any one of these swing highs or lows to be identified it had to pass three tests:
(1) Price action must have broken a key level of support or resistance
(2) Price must have pulled back with two consecutive candles of the same color.
(3) These candles must be red if price recently broke resistance or blue if price recently broke support
Using these rules we see that the SPX was in an objectively defined uptrend from 23 March 2020 (Covid Low) to 03 January 2022 (all time high).
During this timeframe the market was taking out objectively established swing high resistances and respecting them as a level of support. This led to higher highs and higher lows. Technical traders understand this as the definition of an uptrend.
Once the all time high was reached, the market began shifting behaviors. It began taking out objectively defined support and respecting them as levels of resistance. This led to a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Recently, SPX was able to peek above a critical resistance level but could not hold above it. This is a disruption to the down trend but does not rule out the possibility of downward continuation. There is no pattern of higher highs and lows established (yet) and there is only one higher high (yellow circles).
Currently the higher high theory is subjectively defined according to our rules and has not been clearly respected as a level of support or resistance since. Additionally the move comes from a lower low in between our two circles which suggests disruption and weakness but not necessarily a reversal.
Our second objective trend identification method will come from the anchored VWAP tools. We'll use the same two key reference points - Covid low and all time high. We see these with the blue AVWAP dynamic lines.
Price action has validated both of these anchored vwaps in the past as both support and resistance. The read is pretty simple with them. Price is bracketed on both sides by support and resistance. It has not convincingly broke and held above or below either one, leaving price in a range.
In my experience when price is ranging I do not break out my bear claws or my bull horns. I take a position of neutrality in the market and look at the extremes of the range. It is there that I find opportunity to fade the market back to the other extreme.
There is great confluence between the anchored vwaps and simple line work to suggest that these zones of support and resistance are valid. If treated as such, then the appropriate time to get bullish (or bearish) would be when price breaks out of the range. Until then my game will be to fade the range and continue to be neutral. This is also a disciplined, measured, and objective approach to technical trading and doesn't involve the predictions that many will make.
Trading what am seeingA flat is complete as a countertrend move. Expecting the downtrend to resume or we could make another corrective structure. Hence two TP levels. Risk reward shown on both tp levels.
Trading Advice = Never risk more than 2% of your account on a trade. Means your stop loss should never be more than 2% of you account value.
Trading A Countertrend moveLooks like Crypto is rolling over. Surprised ?
A few could predict the move but a very few who could have capitalised on their predictions. Looks like a Zigzag to me i already had a similar idea before. i know its against the trend but its out of my playbook.
Strong Case Points-
Centerline Reversal
S line making sense.
MACD lines are not spread apart.
Risk : Reward is great
Bollinger Band - Touching the Low line
Week Points -
A=C .618 level is broken and next guideline is for A=c 1:1 will take it further down close to bottom line of the channel
Going Against the trend
Do you fell stressed with trading? 😒🙎♂️😰I want to start the morning by not posting a usual trade idea setup.
But to talk more about the methods I now use for my trading and how they have alleviated negative feelings which can occur with trading.
A while ago I opted to switch to an systematic objective based approach for my trading.
This was down to numerous factors which you will find on the drawings in this idea.
Since adopting a objective based approach with set rules coupled with rigours back tested strategies.
All of the subjective traits you see on the left of the idea drawing have disappeared.
And all of the objective based traits seen on the right idea of the drawing have now become the norm in my trading life.
When laid out in the drawing of this idea it's hard to think why you wouldn't adopt these behaviours to your trading.
I hope this gives you all food for thought as we start we the trading day.
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Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
AUDUSD UPDATEwe are still waiting for an objective break below our green trendline last swing standing (blue zone) to sell this one.
keeping in mind that price can still test the upper red resistance/supply zone before going downward.
but we will only look for sell opportunities on AUDUSD as price is approaching a rejection zone in red.
Short this rally still 3 hours till closeLikely to drop tomorrow breakdown on weekly/daily charts, this rally today is an objective shorting opportunity. Don't pay attention to the coronavirus noise this market is overbought and overvalued by every single measure. Not to mention that we no longer have the fake trade deal hype. Crude Oil is also getting hit so goes Crude Oil, so goes the market.
Is the 3rd $BTC leg down the charm?The first breakout to the downside after a period of consolidation hit the target around $4800 and decided to consolidate again around that number. (move marked with green arrows)
The second breakout after the consolidation of $4800 reached its objective, which is currently the low for the year.
A symmetrical triangle has formed after the low objective was met, and being a continuation of trend pattern, look for a move to a new low with a minimum target near $3120.
Overall, volume has been decreasing as the triangle formed and the hold at the black 61.8% level at $4153 (failure to reach the top of the triangle) is a bearish sign.
We need volume to kick up as price breaks underneath the triangle, but I am holding shorts for now.
Thoughts?
Small Bullish Pattern Signals for BTCSticking with the same chart this week as I posted last week.
Price broke through the black bearish trend line and retraced back to the line, which so far has held as support. With the price staying above the trend line, the bulls maintain control of the near-term trend.
Momentum is easing back, but market sentiment remains as a "buy on dips" near the trend line scenario, or ~$6400.
Protective stop should be placed on a new low under $5800. If support holds the upside objective has a nice look to it!
Thoughts?
NEO still has downside trend line break objective in playNEO (charted in dollars on Tradingview) is still consolidating, but still has a bearish pattern break.
The ADX has run flat as the directional index lines tangle up to show no direction. The break of the trend line was there, and the objective is still in play. There is not enough momentum to switch trend back to the bulls, so a slow move toward the objective remains the call. The arrows marked where the break of the trend line A should go.
Weekly S/R
Critical Resistance: $25.30
Key Resistance: $20.80
Key Support: $16.15
Critical Support: $13.68
Stellar signaling a buy on dip sentimentPrice broke the black 61.8% Fibonacci level back in early August and then tested the same line as resistance on a pullback to the line. Selling interest came on to drop the price to the full retracement, as expected post-pullback. Now the price has reversed and busted the red trend line to the upside. The target for this break is marked with arrows and we are also marking this point as resistance 2. First resistance is being tested at the red 61.8% level as price slips on profit-taking.
Look for buying interest to be found on this drop to support, which likely will come in around the previous black 61.8% Fibonacci level. The bull move should resume after a test of the black 61.8% level to get back on pace to reach the upside objective.
If price breaks even lower, underneath the black 61.8% level, then look for a move all the way back to the breakpoint or support 2.
Weekly S/R
Critical Resistance: $0.3308
Key Resistance: $0.2870
Key Support: $0.2457
Critical Support: $0.2071
Bull's Vs. Bears all or nothing, FINAL EFFORT FOR BULL MARKETAs you guys can tell, I have been extremely excited lately, and watching bitcoin in good health and strength is really satisfying. Although you can make money at greater speed shorting, there is nothing that satisfies the spirit as a strong bull market. This is the last and the final battle for bitcoins longer term future right here, and its exciting.
IF you have been following my channel, then you do understand that I have been talking about a double bottom and a descending triangle, well, I have taken a macro picture of the last 6-7 months, because right now is a good time for a macro picture, so we can understand what is happening and what could happen in bitcoin's future. In the off color blue circles, I have highlighted the points of the bottom, the purple trendlines are the trendlines of the descending triangle and the light blue trendline is the trendline of the symmetrical triangle that bitcoin fell out of. The red bars are a point of strong resistance and the red line is a point of strong resistance.
Understand that supports do become resistance, and vice versa, currently bitcoin's price is under the previous support of the symmetrical triangle which is now resistance, in addition, it is also around a point that was its previous support and a good amount of trading had taken place there. In addition, the 100 day simple moving average will be converging on that position as well. So my point is there will be an extraordinary amount of resistance there.
Generally speaking, a head and shoulder pattern has an 85% chance of hitting its price objective in addition to being a trend reversal pattern, so this will be a battle to be felt and seen.
Key Points:
1.) A lot of different points of resistance are converging around the 7500 and the 8000 region. This includes the 100 Day MA, Symmetrical triangle both the resistance and the previous support.
2.) The Bulls look strong and they have a strong probability of hitting 7800-7900 and they have a determined trend reversal pattern.
3.) Rejection or significant penetration of 7900-8000 levels will determine whether we remain in the bear market or whether we enter a bull market.
Trade smart, hedge risk, and make some money!
Previous Analysis
EURUSD Gets Ready for a 3,500 PIP Move SouthThe EURUSD has been recently trying to retrace after a massive 3,500 PIP drop from May of 2014. During this retracement, a nice Flag/Channel was created and then broken to the down side.
Most recently the bottom of the channel has been retested and it looks like the EURUSD is ready for the repeat of history in one of the greatest free-falls in a while.
The measured objective leaves our target at 0.8225.
AUDCHF Weekly Wedge gearing up for potential break!AUDCHF has been forming a nice wedge pattern on the Weekly. I know that a break of this wedge may not materialize for a couple weeks, but who knows - if it breaks, however, we will be ready.
The measured objective may be off by some pips, so please make your own measurements and take your trades based off of your own strategy.
Trade idea - waiting for possible break of wedge trend lines and then I will share my directional bias and look for trades at that point.
Safe trading everyone!