Recap The last week has been tough for the SPX, with 8 of the last 9 days seeing red. After a relentless three-day sell-off, ES managed a 70 point relief rally from Friday's lows. Yesterday, the bulls managed to reverse it and reclaim the 4147-54 level, leading to a green day. The question now is, can bulls manage green day #2, and perhaps more? The Markets...
Recap The week saw a continuation of the red streak in ES, with 8 of the last 9 days being red. The week was characterized by heavy selling, with ES losing its core bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows. Since then, ES has been in “sell the bounce” mode, with periods of basing interspersed by sharp sells lower for a total of 100 points down since the...
Recap Last week was the longest stretch of consecutive red days in 2023, with the SPX experiencing 5 red days in a row for the first time this year. This week started off with a single green day, representing a 70-point bounce to reset after 5 days. We spent 3/4 of yesterday in sell mode, making it 7 out of the last 8 red days. The question is whether this bounce...
Recap The past week has seen the ES experience an unusual streak of red days, with six out of the last seven days ending in the red. This rare occurrence was followed by a green day on Tuesday as part of a broader relief rally at the Sunday futures open. However, the bulls could not sustain this momentum, and we saw a return to the red. The ES has been base...
Recap Yesterday, ES broke its 5-day red streak, the longest in 2023. The green day was expected as ES tested its primary bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows and put in a failed breakdown bottoming setup of last week's lows. This setup led me to go long on Sunday/Monday from 4215, adding to it at Monday's close at 4245. The market action played out as...
Recap Last week, ES ended with a rare 4-day losing streak, pushing the RSI(5) into oversold territory. Despite a short squeeze yesterday, ES failed to close green, ending the day around the same spot as Friday. However, a bullish hammer candle was formed, indicating potential for a bullish follow-up today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎...
Recap Last Friday, we saw the market slowly grind down through supports all day, with a few minor relief pops. This marked the fourth consecutive red day for ES, closing at the lows. At the same time, the RSI is nearly the most oversold this year, leading to speculation about a potential relief bounce. In this newsletter, we'll discuss the triggers and setups...
Recap After being in corrective mode for several days, ES arrived at the technical equivalent of ground zero - the 4330-36 zone. This zone is significant as it defines the uptrend that ES has been in for exactly 1 year. The arrival at this zone resulted in some of the most volatile, trap-filled, bipolar price action in many months. The 4330-36 zone was tested 5x...
Recap Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked...
Recap This trend continued yesterday as the ES continued to build a base between 4360 and 4410-20. Despite a lucrative run today, ES has ultimately been displaying a lot of volatility to go nowhere, as we continue to base in the 4410-20 to 4360s range. This will inevitably result in a large trend move. But in which direction? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia:...
Recap Last week saw the ES snapping its five-week losing streak. The catalyst? A recapturing of its core bull market trendline from October 2022 on the 6th, triggering a robust 187-point rally. Though the week ended on a lower note, it presented a tactical buying opportunity. ES is currently in a 3-day limbo, fluctuating between 4410 and 4355 since last...
Recap This week started off with a statistically significant rally, with 4 green days in a row, totaling a 187 point rally from last Friday’s low to this week's high. This made it the largest 4-day green stretch of the year. After 5 red weeks in a row, ES managed to put in its first green week, marking a reversal week. However, after reaching major resistance, ES...
Recap Yesterday was a volatile trading day, with the CPI data release causing some significant market movements. The initial move down to 4393 was a trap for shorts, followed by a squeeze to ~4418, which trapped longs, and then a significant move lower. This pattern of trapping is common on data days, making them challenging to trade. The past week has been...
Recap In the past few days, the SPX has seen a massive uptrend, with Friday marking the single largest range green day of 2023. This was followed by two more rally days on Monday and Tuesday. As predicted, we saw a pullback and consolidation yesterday, with a dip mid-day to 4377. However, this was bought with force, indicating the strength of the bulls. The...
Recap In the past week, we saw a significant technical shift with ES reclaiming the 4310 level, its core bull market trendline from October 2022. This put the bulls back in control and corresponded with the start of bullish October seasonality. The week had straightforward trading, with the market pulling back to the 4310 level before triggering a two-day rally...
Recap Friday was a significant day for the ES, with it reclaiming its core bull market rising trendline from the October 2022 lows at ~4310. This week began with a significant gap down due to weekend headline catalyst out of the middle east. However, the action at the open demonstrated just how powerful simple technicals remain even in the face of geopolitical...
Recap Last Friday, we witnessed a bullish breakout in ES. The movement was anticipated and played out well, running over 100 points from the day's low right to the final target of 4348 and beyond. The ES reclaimed its core bull market trendline from October 2022, which was necessary to set a low. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index...
Recap Over the last week, I've consistently referred to a single trendline in ES - the core bull market trendline from October 2022 in the low 4300 area. This week, almost every significant move was related to this simple trendline. On Tuesday, we saw a hard sell on the failure of it, triggering a deep sell to 4235. However, on Wednesday, we rallied to 4304 high...