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Historical Data Experimentplease note: this is not a complete trading idea. This analysis is entirely based off historical data. Many of us know that Bitcoin has seen several major correction throughout its lifespan. The last major correction took place back in late 2013, which resulted in a 90% correction from the top. The chart above shows the percentages and ratios I collected from the 2013 crash that were then overlaid onto the recent Bitcoin chart. Creating the possible route Bitcoin could take IF it follows the 2013 path. The percentages & time frames that were collected are shown in grey. The red and green colors shows what I expect to happen based on the data. The chart below shows the percentages collected for this experiment. DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by oh92
6
EURUSD and DXY confirming signal of change in trend for dollarEURUSD EURUSD and DXY EUR is tracking an inverse set of parallels to DXY. When EUR breaks lower it's a second sell/add shorts signal which must be confirmed by DXY breaking above the upper parallel containing this impulse wave from inception. DXY has to break and hold above that parallel before the bears will back off - but it's fighting here, where it should if it's to turn back up from here. The confirming signal is the break above the upper parallel. DXY Dollar Index Despite the spike and noise surrounding CPI numbers yesterday DXY has been forced back down the same small parallels it was travelling down before the numbers hit the newsfeeds. As in last comment Dollar bulls still have the double bottom on their side here. The last one was one week apart, this one is 2 weeks apart. The Dollar is likely to hold here at these lower levels and then begin to rally. It's waiting on Wall St to open now but bears in London have failed to push it below the double bottom. A sign of waning downside momentum. Once it can break above the upper small parallel guiding the descent it should attract more buyers and move back up to test the 89.37 line where it will likely meet resistance again...it has to push on through here during the course of today for the bulls to gain more traction and flip DXY into more positive mode from this point. This battle may take some time to resolve - DXY has to fight its way through three lines of near term resistance at 89.37, 89.51 and then 89.62 to turn back to positive again. Look to buy dips here and on the pairs with stops under 88.40 on DXY for small loss if wrong from here. Increase longs on move above the smaller upper parallel. On downside, DXY will have to break below 88.40 today to change this view to near term negative but only back to 87.70 at lowest where DXY should find final support and begin to rally again. But so long as 88.40 holds up today the Dollar's downtrend is finally coming to an end.
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD First Signs of a Bottom in SightBitcoin BTCUSD Update Next Buy and Sell Points We have a low here on Bitstamp at 5920, on Bitfinex at exactly 6000 and on Coinbase at 5873 - so far. Earlier in London Bitcoin has been driven up through the upper parallel that has been controlling this sell-wave from yesterday. It's the first early sign that this is getting close to the bottom now. It's finally trying to put up a fight here at these lower levels...so on downside will not be looking for another short unless 5900 is broken on Bitstamp and 6000 is broken on Bitfinex - and even then will only be for 300 points or so to 5636 and if so will be looking to reverse long again at this point if struck with stops 100 below On the upside it's nothing more than a speccy buy at 6300 with a stop below 6200 - it's more risky than buying the breakout as we don't know for sure that 6200 will hold out yet. Otherwise we stand by for a potential break above the upper parallel, looking for a successful restest from above once broken...it then has to break above 6610 and hold there to give us confirmation that the rally is good to go - look to enter long positions if we see this price action develop. Otherwise will look to get long again from lower levels later.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
Gold XAUUSD Bull Flag ahead of FOMC dataGold: XAUUSD This is interesting - it isn't a crypto - it's gold but it's making a familiar pattern with just 25 minutes to go to FOMC data release...it can go to the upper parallel and fail which mean dollar strength and it can can do what seems to be predicting...a bull flag with 2 strikes on the lower parallel = hot, still even at these levels - which in turn means dollar/DXY cold, still, even at these low levels. Admit to being wary of whipsaw in the minutes following the data so want to stand clear and wait for the dust to settle - which may be quickly ....but it will be interesting to see if this develops as the flag is currently suggesting it will. If so gold will likely revisit the highs - but it's as if it's primed - is it a trap?...let's see
FX:XAUUSD
by sumastardon
GBYTE - Great store of value for next correction?Most people's ALT's took a hit over the last week. But GBYTE has been particularly resilient to FUD, as well as the BTC correction. If the trend GBYTE has been on since the start of December continues, we would see 1GBYTE = 0.2BTC by end of March, when a favourite BTC hawk of mine, @CARPENOCTUM aka #33kMoku, predicts another major correction. I'm considering liquidating all my ALTS in late march, and moving everything into GBYTE during the crash. oops - 6th Jan high for BTC / GBP should read £12,959 not £15,564) Thoughts anyone?
Long
by Jimblemerk
Stop Management using trend linesFirst I determine the gradient most important in the currency. I then look for parallels to this. I will enter when I get two touches on the line . I wait for the close price, to make sure that price does not spike down through the sloping line. (No Entry) Depending upon market activity I adjust my stop when price moves up to the next parallel. The closer the stop the more likely you are to get stopped out. Before I entered the trade above I must decide a number of things Is it better to hold BTC or another currency? Should I choose EOS or BCD? Note BCD outperformed EOS by a large margin Does it have a pattern that I can use to trade? Is my risk to reward greater than 5.? Will the entry happen when I am not at my computer? Can I actively manage the trade or will I be unavailable for a few hours? You can see why I exited this trade. The price is stair- stepping down along these ascending parallels. If is gains clear support I would once again consider an entry When traders have lost money in a currency, they often try to regain money in that currency. They then wait and wait for price to go back up. Then they say that there is a great team behind the currency and they are doing a big deal in two weeks that will change everything. Then they become a HODLer . They have changed the original intent of their purchase. On the other hand if you bought (with the PLAN of holding) ETH December 7 then in under 40 days you have 3.5X your value in USD I think that it is usually better to take a break for a few days. Then enter a different currency.
by a1Keith
Ethereum Classic: A Great Long Term BuyEthereum Classic to Bitcoin seems to have found its bottom at the .0014 level. Now there is only one way for it to go, and that is up. Long term I think that ethereum classic will easily retest .0031 level and if it breaks that (which there are high chances) we will probably see a retest of .0048. I hope this post helps some people make money :) Happy trading! Please donate if you like what I do! :) bitcoin: 1NTkRex1gE2iJ63sFQHNpFYkBoeZ3w69FZ bitcoin-cash: 1GYPijuWfRYtaWmFbPsFjWsozEP3ZXaheq ethereum: 0x56E49FB49221623C8FC7BE27C49E6d7Ff8d02c70 burstcoin: BURST-S9HQ-84BX-CXX8-4RKBC
Long
by stupendelious
OmiseGO is undervaluedOmiseGO is currently undervalued. The ATH is 0.00329400 BTC. The current price (0.00148600 BTC) is at 45.1 % of this, so we are still very much undervalued! Current performance is very much bullish on the daily chart. Right now things are slightly overbought, could see a very brief correction at this level, but I expect the price to continue rising soon (this week ?). Reaching the ATH is just one target and not the end of the road! Research OmiseGO fundamentals, this company (Omise) has been around since 2013 and employs over 100 people. It operates in Japan, Thailand and Indonesia amongst others. It offers critical gateway services between crypto and legacy banking and is working on achieving a decentralised exchange network for exchanging between cryptocurrencies. Why is this important? Decentralised exchanges are possibly the exchange networks of the future! One of the advisors of OmiseGO is Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, who has said OmiseGO is his favourite token model for 2018: oracletimes.com Website: omisego.network Good Youtube video: www.youtube.com (not mine:))
by RealMcafee
GE: An issue of Trust - is it safe yet?GE Will 2018 be the year GE starts to get better? Who can say and who can be believed anyway? The chart. It walks while CEO's talk. GE has pretty much turned dead since the traumas of the Fall. It's been moving in a very controilled trader-friendly way with 4 perfect hits on the 18.04 line and three on the 17.59 line before it gave way, falling to new low at 17.36 but finding buyers since and now trying to break above a fairly minor trend line from the most recent peak at 17.52 now. It's likely to get a few buy recommendations for potential recovery from a few brokers in their New Year's tips sheets but will need to find enough to push it back above 17.59 and then hold above here on retests. That would be the first bullish sign from GE for many a moon - and should be encouragement enough for other buyers to join in and push price back up to 18.04 - where it becomes ... a sell again most likely. All this price action we see on the chart over a two month period is the equivalent (or fractal) of two hours' price action on Bitcoin.
NYSE:GE
by sumastardon
New to the Cryptogame and learning painful lessons along the wayI always believed that you learn the most when you get hurt. I dove into the market with the fear of missing out on the tremendous upside and potential of this platform. I have long been programmed by the mainstream institutional investors that getting 10-15 gains are the best. I have risked a lot in the stock market before and have been fairly successful so this is yet another endeavor into something new. The first mistake that i made was getting swooped in by the herd mentality and thinking that I was still early in the game. Besides I was the only one talking about bitcoin and its potential. So I figured there's time and since everybody else was not able to take I chance. I went ahead and decided to jump in. Unfortunately I got trapped into the coinbase waiting game and wiped out about 30 percent of my initial investment on paper. When the correction was happening I kept thinking in my head that I should pull out and save the remaining capital. Fortunately, the same thing that got me trapped during the fall also prevented me from getting out and actually realizing the loss. Its just paper loss so far. Then came the lessons learned from the stock market crash during the bank crash. Dizzy and nauseated by what appeared to be an imminent crash all the way down to zero a sudden calm state emerged. Ive been here before. Ive done this before. One mistake on the upside cant be corrected by another mistake on the downside. Painful lessons being learned will hopefully translate into success into this new platform. To all the ones that are dipping their toes...educate yourself, learn from the experience, and tread cautiously. Take your time and contemplate your actions. In time if you truly believe that cryptocurrencies are not a scam or a ponzi scheme...things will be alright. Here's to learning growing and maybe making a new living!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bderosas1920
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Retest of lows underwayBitcoin Update Spent most of yesterday buying dips from around 14050 and higher, looking to increase on a break of the neckline of what has turned out to be an imaginary reverse head and shoulders - and again on the break above another imaginary flag formation which was then sitting at 15500 with a stop at least 100 points below the line. So we blew 150 or so points off the top but at least managed to trap in bigger profits accumulated during the rest of a turgid, slow day of trading. Not very good, but it could've been worse. The pattern Bitcoin has made overnight has done nothing to improve the picture. The last comments had warned that Bitcoin only turns bearish again on a break below 14465. Overnight it broke this level, fell through the next blue line of support to the next line at 13571, bounced back to test the 14465 level from the underside, turning it into resistance as it did so and is now falling away again...every move it's made overnight has been bearish. If you were around to short on the fall below 14465, lucky you Now it's coming back to test the right hand 'shoulder' at 13560-13450 - Bitcoin must hold here - as this is the last real chance of support holding up and preventing another retest of the lows. Therefore, should it fail to hold at any point today look to short on a break below 13450, looking for 12600 to begin with and then after a potential bounce from here, look to short again from 13088 looking for a retest of the lows. to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today. Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin further into terrible technical trouble and likely force price all the way back to 10486 to begin with and then to 8324. It's beaking down now as this is written up... Suggest closing out ALL longs on any Alt asap - we can buy back cheaper later.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
11
GOLD: XAUUSD Rally running out of momentumGOLD XAUUSD Bingo! Game Over The perfect high was meant to be at 1268.76 line on 21st December, a minor cycle high. The high was actually 1268.82 on the due date. Gold has a look of completion about it now and looks about ready to roll over again from here. Any rallies are likely to get knocked back from 1268.76 now but will pick up support at 1262.45-1262.30 as it moves towards the lower parallel - and once that breaks it becomes an aggressive sell again back to 1252.30-1250.72 range where it can be bought again for the bounce.
FX:XAUUSD
by sumastardon
ETHUSD At Top Of its Tree in Near TermETHUSD At the top of its tree in near term Although ETH has struggled for a large part of the last 30 days, it has now doubled from a low at 313 to today's high at 626. Not bad for a straggler. But it's probably at its upside limits in the near term here and needs to consolidate some more below the upper parallel before it can go again. May well hammer out a small flag for the next few hours, especially if 617 keeps stopping the next advance. To clear the way for the next advance from hereETH would have to find enough power to beat the upper parallel and then to turn it into support on the next retest from above once broken through. Can either close out longs here and lock in profits and be ready to buy on a successful near term break above the upper parallel or potentially to buy again from lower down, from 577-551 range.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD 10/10/10/10/10 Magnificent Display Bitcoin Update Full Marks for Bitcoin More gymnastics overnight as Bitcoin tore across our screens. It's as if it's putting on a display for us all, going through a gymnast's routine across the mat and parallels, showing us a selectionn of moves and continuation patterns, all different over the last 24 hour display. Look and learn from this extraordinary creature. Is she mot magnificent? Ideally it will finish with one last blast to the upper parallel where we look to close out for a while if touched. Day traders can short from there wit stops 50 points above. You may win a heap of points. And you may get yourself a new one ripped - before you even have a chance to pull down your pants. But with a stop it may still be worth the risk, if we see that upper parallel touched today. Doesn't have to do this but it would be neat if it did. Stops can be raised to just under the top dynamic support shown on the chart now, just under 12250 Bitcoin Update (Last Night) A very quiet day for Bitcoin...a little break into new highs, a continuation pattern lasting 10 hours of stultifying price action and then a break higher, which is being chased higher in China. Still no sellers around though. So it pushes higher. Continuation patterns tend to last 5 or 6 hours, this last one was longer than usual but the break has been steady. Hope you spotted the pattern here...not a regular well defined flag or parallel but look at it: left shoulder, head, right shoulder: an inverted/reverse head and shoulders (so another continuation pattern to add to the list, to study and remember for ever) with the small dynamic resistance line at the top of the chart forming the neckline/break-point. The minimum upside target following breakout is 12,092, only 50 points away as this written. Another 260 points or so, if touched. The break today was slow coming - like fishing can be too - we have to learn patience and recognise that when Bitcoin goes into a continuation pattern it takes 5 to 6 hours usually to straighten out again and sometimes 10. This is the nature of the beast. We cannot let ourselves get tired by waiting though, becasue just when you think it's never going to break higher, it does. It's Bitcoin. Stay with it. Day traders can draw a support line right under the lows of this run from 11166 on a 1 minute chart to determine a near term exit. * Sorry to desert post today - busy in meetings that took all day and most of night...new Crypto funds starting up ahead of futures trading starting in Bitcoin on December 18 - Bitcoin gets more respectable with every passing day. Soon everyone will have a Bitcoin desk or risk being left behind, and getting labelled old-fashioned. Except for Jamie Dimon of course. Mr Dimon may be a stopped clock, but he could yet be proved right. One day. Until then, every other day, he's wrong though.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
4
GOLD: XAUUSD Trading Strategies for both sides of marketGOLD XAUUSD Strategies for both sides of market Gold is now delicately poised - to say the least. Am closing out the long at 1274.75 for just under 4 points as it looks like it can come back again to the lineof last support at 1270. This entire pattern all month looks like a continuation pattern, prior to gold crashing back to 1203 level. But gold has been playing chicken with the bears all month and it may still make one last rally on dollar weakness before falling away. Still think it will bounce off that little uptrend line one last time on dollar weakness so will be putting in an order for one last long attempt at 1270.5 with a stop 1.4 lower at 1269.1. If struck and then the stop goes too will reverse for fall to 1260 with stop above 1270. If we see this price action will close out and await what happens at 1260. That's the last line in the sand for bulls. If and when it caves in will look to short pretty much immediately with stops above 1270. Upside depends on DXY: it's plain to see from the shape of the pattern this month that no one really wants to buy gold, it's as if they only do because if they don't they do nothing instead, or worse, lose by being wrongside and staying stubborn. So this long is contrarian and low risk with a stop 1.4 points away if struck. It just needs to get through 1275 now and it should start to attract buyers - but there is resistance right here, so am taking the few points available and using them as stops on next trade, as above. and if it doesn't come back one last time from here will have to buy again above 1276 for another reluctant rally to 1286 at least, more likely to1297 and just maybe1305. This entire rally will depend on the Dollar falling. If it doesn't gold can't really rally. Hence both charts. Hope it's of some use in the coming days, whichever way gold jumps next. Good trades coming up here, though this might not be one of them!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin BTCUSD Pieces of EightBitcoin: BTCUSD Pieces Of Eight Bitcoin lost the pull of the big parallel last night and then drifted sideways. It then started to use the lower parallel as resistance - bears came in where you'd expect them to attack, just under the 10 mark. But no one panicked. Holders who once exchanged one Bitcoin for an oz of weed weren't going to pull out now. That ounce is now worth $10,000. Crime pays. Bigly. Now everyone wants a piece too. And like pirates fighting over pieces of eight, there are only 16 to 21million Bitcoins to share out amongst every inhabitant of the world. That sum means there are roughly 20 million Bitcoins to share between 7.4 billion people. Like pieces of 8 there are not enough to make everyone happy. So we fight. Over price. And the price won't stop rising. How high can Bitcoin go? Still, no one knows. But where there was a floor at 8000 established 5 days ago. That floor is now 9848- 9715. Swing and long term hoilders can safely move or keep their stops up to just under 9700. Near term Bitcoin is now back testing the underside of the same parallels it lost during yesterday''s session and although it won't quit pushing, the parallel is arresting a surge in price Why would anyone quit holding now except brave day traders selling off the parallel? If they didn't bail out at 10 and just under why expect them to bail out now? Bitcoin remains a buy dips trade. Next stop 15,000. Anyone's guess. 2, 3, 5, 7.5, 15 (10 does not figure anywhere), Long term holders and swingers stay long. Day traders know by now that palying against Bitcoin will take your fingers off. Buy dips too. You can't fight this. The writing is on the screen. "Bitcoin has been weighed in the balance - and has not been found wanting". Long story short: Bitcoin still rocks and should hit 15 quite soon. Buy all dips and hold. Just like everyone else.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
6
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Number of the BeastBITCOIN: BTCUSD Turn your back on Bitcoin for a few hours and ...just wish we'd all been around at 2.30 am GMT: The first really big bear engulfing red candles appear, smashes through the parallel (our long stop has already been taken for 25 point loss, earlier) the panic the increases and Bitcoin falls to the perfect spot...falling away the beginning of the structure to the immediate left of the chart...you know this behaviour, it's text-book stuff. What a buy with stops underneath. So damn perfect too. See, even in a panic, Bitcoin behaves in a technically perfect way. It doesn't every day, but a hell of a lot of the time. So we missed the big moment of the day. Now we know the new line in the sand that separates bulls from bears: 8533 is new number of the beast for now. The line rises higher with each failed attempt. Bullish, still So Bitcoin continues to grind higher after that failed bear raid left an enormous pin bar at 8533: buying interst down there is strong, therefore. Most of the price action is still taking place around the uppermost parallel... The Chinese session has seen Bitcoin bid up to new highs, driving higher all session once the bear raid had failed so abjectly. Even at these levels it's still not working out for them. So Alts v Bitcoin have taken a hammering and only now have a little respite as Bitcoin unwinds an overbought condition at the highs. Once again want to wait to see how this consolidation develops and what pattern Bitcoin slings together next. Looking like a dynamic is forming off the top which we can maybe use as an entry point later when it gets broken to the upside. We don't have to trade every minute, though younger bulls might disagree. So it's a waiting game here for now. In meantime look at the chart action last night. Order, perfect order within a moment of chaos. Till later.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
5
GODD XAUUSD How Gold Traders stay ahead with aid of DXY chartGold: XAUUSD 1.25% How DXY -0.25% is the gold 1.24% trader's best friend right now So far gold 1.24% has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY -0.25% at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold 1.24% turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold 1.24% powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY -0.25% is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold 1.24% - with stops only triggered in event that DXY -0.25% breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY -0.25% is going up and Gold 1.24% is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold 1.24% trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index 0.11% Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY -0.25% , so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold 1.24% . Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold 1.24% is toppy -0.73% near term and DXY -0.25% is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold 1.24% shorts at that point). And only if DXY -0.25% can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold 1.24% again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY -0.25% breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY -0.25% is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold 1.24% longs.
TVC:DXYEducation
by sumastardon