OIH: One Last Climb 🧗The OIH is currently working on green wave 2, which should extend to our same-colored Target Zone (between $335.63 and $353.32). Within this range, the price should complete a reversal and then gradually trend downwards. This Zone can therefore be used to open any short trades. Stops could be placed 1% above the zone. The end of the orange wave III should only be reached below the support at $250.69.
OIH
Can OIH revisit its ATH?- Finally after the market shook off all the prophets of doom who were calling for a market correction the bullish trend is continuing its course.
- OIH is highly liquid stock but the chart seems to be setting for a revisit of the ATH.
- Entry area is the current range.
- There is a good R:R so no need to have a tight stoploss.
OIH: Keep Going! 👏OIH is on its way toward our green Target Zone (between $$321.09 and $339.97), nearing the last local high from the end of January. We expect the ETF to arrive in said Target Zone during the orange wave ii before the orange five-wave downward structure should continue, ultimately concluding below the support at $277.30 (but still above $250.69). Still, there is a 32% chance that the orange wave Alt.ii has already finished without reaching our Target Zone, which would be confirmed by the price dropping below $277.30 earlier.
OIH needs some bullish power to rebound and beat resistance1-hour chart, OIH needs a quick rebound - otherwise a correction will happen to 0.374 extendable to 0.362
New buy entry above 0.405
Above resistance (BLUE line), the target will be 0.512 extendable to 0.521
RSI is positive, in the buy area.
MACD is negative: downwards is highly possible.
OIH: Come on! 👏Since the low of wave ii in orange, OIH has already managed some strong upwards moves, but so far, it could not successfully conquer the resistance at $276.85. However, we expect the ETF to climb above this mark soon to develop wave iii in orange. Afterward, the short counter movement of wave iv in orange should interrupt the ascent, before the following upwards step should lead to the top of wave 2 in turquoise. There is a 35% chance, though, that OIH could slip downwards and drop below the support at $250.69 instead.
OIH: Rebound 🏐Impulsively, OIH has bounced off the resistance at $276.85, which now marks the top of wave iv in magenta. Next, the ETF should continue the downward trend below the support at $250.69 to complete the magenta-colored three-part movement and thus expand wave 3 in turquoise. However, a 35% chance remains that OIH could take a northbound detour, climbing above the resistance at $276.85 to develop a new top in the form of wave alt.2 in turquoise first before turning southwards again.
A New Long Opportunity In Energy: $AMLPEveryone knows that $XLE has been out performing for the last two years. If you missed the move here's an opportunity at a new comer to the breakout in energy, $AMLP.
This ticker is an ETF that tracks a basket of MLP stocks. It's concentrated at just 17 holdings and its currently boasting a yield of 7.4%. The monthly chart looks a lot like its cohorts in the energy space did just a few months ago. This is a monthly candle chart with no annotations or judgements by me. The 36 Month SMA served as resistance until recently. That resistance was flipped and tested. The flip was successful and former resistance is now confirmed as support. The ETF is now convincedly above is 10 Month EMA for the first time in years. There's also a long term gold cross forming as the two moving averages converge. On the daily chart its fighting some resistance in the $38 to $41 range for sometime now. This looks like a good one for the watch list.
short-term pullback in Oil expected. $OIH $WTI This thing has gotten way overcooked and gone parabolic. If it continues to go parabolic, it will destroy the consumer. Which is 70% of what drives the US economy. So I doubt that will be allowed to happen by the market gods lol.
I expected TVC:USOIL to return to its well-defined travel that it bonered out of like a rocket. Unless we see 3 consecutive closes above $115 a barrel for WTI crude, then I expect a return to earth (the channel) and then continuing its slug upwards until renewables and EV's have completely replaced fossil fuels and ICE's.
Please see the tagged post for more info. And to understand this is not my first time doing due diligence on the subject. And not to say I told you so, but I told you so, I was spot on with oil last time. I gotta take my W's.
The easy way to potentially play this while limiting risk exposure is puts on $USO, and use any profits to add to $OIH. #TRUSTinTheTiger
long oil, long $OIHThe well-defined channel seems to be intact while RSI is bottoming out and MACD is beginning to curl up.
I believe oil has seen the majority of its bad performance in the past week. After this greenflation will kick into gear. People won't be able to resist investing in energy knowing that they'll be taking advantage of huge profit margins while the commodity becomes more scarce as companies stop drilling and consumers switch to EV's
Screw gold! It's all about that black gold. and that was the final flush we needed to take the next leg higher.
AMEX:OIH
OIH Monthly Candle Breakout11 month accumulation with a large range expansion away from the mode. My strategy to trade this was jan 2023 $285 calls for the lower premium. ATM calls are also a good strategy at a significantly higher premium so it depends on your portfolio size and the position size you're aiming for. For options I choose to never exceed 5% portfolio size per trade and I set my stop at a 50% loss (for actual stocks I don't use this rule, just options). You can trade a smaller position size but I wouldn't recommend going above 5% of your total portfolio. Even with far OTM calls, I'm already at about 13% profit since there's been some nice movement since I originally charted this 3 weeks ago. At around 20% profit I will likely adjust my stop to around 10% profit and then trail.
Rising Wedges Appearing Across Oil-based AssetsWe have a clear example of a rising wedge on XOP Oil Exploration & Drilling ETF. There is a similar wedge also forming on VanEck Oil Services ETF.
This suggests risk-off is coming to the oil markets soon.
My suggested timeline for resolution is 14th Feb. So one week away.
I strongly suggest that this may be part of a broader down move coming to oil and gas as commodities very soon.
VanEck Oil ETF (USA: $OIH) Ripe For The Picking 🍊About VanEck Oil Services ETF
The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS® US Listed Oil Services 25 Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index includes common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. exchange-listed companies in the oil services segment. Such companies may include small- and medium-capitalization companies and foreign companies that are listed on a U.S. exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
Oil ETF, $OIH with a "head & shoulders" patternA lot of analyst have been publishing bullish outlooks for AMEX:XLE . But we have AMEX:OIH in our portfolio for long term position and now is also making several bullish signs. Bullish divergence with the MACD, above average buying volume and price action making a head & shoulders pattern (reversal pattern).
This trade would be a short term trade. The buy point is on the breakout above $197 and the target for profit taking is at $230 for a 16% profit. The projection for price target comes from the rules of the "h&s" pattern. According to the Bulkowski Chart Pattern Ranking (thepatternsite.com), this pattern is Rank #1 with a 50% chances of a throwback after the breakout, so be aware.
FOR INVESTORS WE START BUILD POSITIONS WE START BUILDING LONG POSITIONS FROM
ENTRY ZONE NUMBER 1 : 0.248 UP TO 0.250
ENTRY ZONE NUMBER 2 : 0.237 UP TO 0.239
ENTRY ZONE NUMBER 3 : 0.226 UP TO 0.228
STOP LOSS : WEEKLY CANDLE CLOSE BELOW 0.198 -20% FROM ENTRY ZONE 1
TAKE PROFIT 1 : 0.342 +37% FROM ENTRY ZONE 1
TAKE PROFIT 2 : 0.401 +60% FROM ENTRY ZONE 1
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wont time itwont time the market, but need to survive a deathcross now, hopefully hold this level; nice channel is created. With a near term PT at 5.60s. Could even finally be low risk above 4.50+. Must see what oil does on monday, after OPEC+ agreement today. I think XLE is close to bottom too.
I think in a long term anything is possible. Cyclicals will boom, when dollar falls. doesnt have to happen near term though.
longterm bullRIG will test 7-8$, imho, when these two lines colide, in like september or october. (It's current trend).
Expect some head wind in short term from slower global recovery (variant). It would be hard for XLE to return to where it came from; so that's extremely bullish .
No crap head lines can't change fact that there was underinvestment into oil exploration; thus oil companies focusing on profits first. Opec wants least 70$ WTI (supported by demand) not 50$/ br .
Also think that in short term whole energy sector has tail winds from value (DJI, VTV , industrials , etc) slowing down, and fake out rally in yields. But not in a long run.
go long OIHAfter almost 7 years of bearish price action, oil services will be essential in the transition to electric vehicles and clean energy. Most automakers are shooting for 2025 to have an entire EV fleet or mostly EV fleet. That's a 4-7 year runway for a bull run; assuming that it will take time to transition and for all automakers to be on the same page. Freight and travel will only increase with time further improving demand for oil and oil services.
Tom Lee from Fundstrat gave this oil services ETF a price target of $740 if oil hits $80 a barrel which seems extremely likely with the macroenvironment. Playing this trend through an ETF is the safest way to play it because you are taking out the idiosyncratic risk of being tied solely to a single company.
The top ten holdings of OIH are:
SLB: 22.46%
HAL: 13.21%
BKR: 5.84%
FTI: 5.22%
CHX: 4.97%
TS: 4.63%
LBRT: 4.57%
NOV: 4.37%
HP: 4.13%
RIG: 4.00%
Weekly Chart:
Daily Chart with Golden Cross: