USOIL Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 61.43
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 60.40
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Oil
Long Term Brent Outlook, $32 by 2026Weekly Brent has broken a clear barrier and formed a Bull Flag pattern, but the subsequent rally has been weak, not even reaching the breakout level.
The global economy is showing signs of weakening, leading to a reduction in oil demand. Concurrently, Trump's move to lift US production restrictions is boosting oil supply. However, the slight depreciation of the dollar is providing upward pressure on oil prices.
Given these factors, Brent remains relatively weak, and we may see a continued decline in line with Scenario 1, potentially targeting ML by 2026. Further downside is also likely.
Given the current conditions, I consider shorting oil at any reasonable price on lower timeframes.
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Crude oil------sell near 63.00, target 60.00-57.00Crude oil market analysis:
The recent daily crude oil line is still not very strong. There was a rebound, but it was just a rebound. Gold rose strongly, but crude oil did not rise strongly. Yesterday's crude oil also ran down slightly. Today's crude oil is still around 63.00 and 65.00, which are opportunities to consider selling. If it continues to decline and stabilizes around 57.00, buy it back. Crude oil does not reflect the fundamentals so strongly.
Fundamental analysis:
The CPI announced yesterday did not have a big impact on the market, but the data difference was still relatively large, and the result was -0.1%. The bulls only rose slightly. The bottoming out and rebound of the US stock market was mainly due to Trump's withdrawal of some tariff policies.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 63.00, target 60.00-57.00
USOIL BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 61.45
Target Level: 73.89
Stop Loss: 53.11
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
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USOIL: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 61.501 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
WTI Oil H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 62.71 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 66.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 57.01 which is a swing-low support.
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WTI - Will Iran return to the group of oil producers?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. If the correction towards the supply zone continues, the next oil selling opportunity with a suitable reward for risk will be provided for us. In this direction, with confirmation, we can look for oil buying transactions.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest report, has downgraded its forecasts for oil and natural gas production, consumption, and prices for 2025 and 2026, while warning about the uncertain outlook of the energy market amidst economic volatility and escalating trade tensions.
According to the updated estimates, U.S. crude oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 13.51 million barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels. For 2026, the figure has been revised to 13.56 million barrels per day, a reduction from the earlier 13.76 million forecast. Monthly data shows average U.S. oil output stood at 13.44 million barrels per day in April and 13.55 million in March, with similar levels expected in May.
Globally, EIA projects oil production in 2025 to be around 104.1 million barrels per day, slightly down from the earlier estimate of 104.2 million. For 2026, the revised figure stands at 105.3 million barrels per day compared to the previous 105.8 million.
On the demand side, global oil consumption forecasts have also been reduced. In 2025, demand is now estimated at 103.6 million barrels per day instead of 104.1 million, and for 2026 it is projected at 104.7 million barrels per day, down from the prior estimate of 105.3 million.
Regarding natural gas, the EIA reports that average U.S. gas production in April will be around 115 billion cubic feet per day, slightly lower than the 115.3 billion cubic feet reported in March. May’s forecast stands at 115.4 billion cubic feet. Demand has also dipped, with estimates for 2025 now at 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (down from 92), and for 2026 at 90.5 billion (previously 91.1).
In terms of pricing, EIA has made significant downward revisions. The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is now forecast to be $63.88 per barrel in 2025, compared to the earlier $70.68. For 2026, this drops further to $57.48. Brent crude is now estimated at $67.87 for 2025 and $61.48 for 2026, both notably lower than prior projections.
One key highlight from the report is EIA’s warning about high volatility in major commodity prices, especially crude oil. The agency underlined that reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. could heavily impact markets, particularly the propane sector.
EIA noted that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are likely to remain resilient despite trade disputes. This is attributed to strong global demand and the flexible nature of U.S. export contracts, which allow unrestricted shipments to multiple destinations.
However, when it comes to oil and petroleum products, the agency maintained a more cautious tone, emphasizing that recent shifts in global trade policies and oil production patterns may slow the growth of demand for petroleum-based products through 2026.
Altogether, the downward revisions by the EIA carry a clear message: the energy market outlook over the coming years is fraught with uncertainty. From supply and demand to pricing, political and economic forces such as trade wars and potential global recessions are expected to play decisive roles.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, after U.S. President Donald Trump once again threatened military action if Tehran refuses to agree to a nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official responded by warning that Iran may halt its cooperation with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog.
Reports indicate that American and Iranian diplomats will meet in Oman on Saturday to begin talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump stated that he would have the final say on whether the negotiations are failing, which could place Iran in a highly dangerous position.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, posted on X (formerly Twitter) that ongoing foreign threats and the looming threat of military confrontation could lead to deterrent actions such as expelling International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and cutting ties with the agency.He also mentioned that relocating enriched uranium to secure, undisclosed locations within Iran may be under consideration
Crude Oil Found Support: What's Next?FenzoFx—Crude oil tested the $58.9 level as support and bounced back from it. The primary trend is bearish; therefore, it will likely resume if the price closes and stabilizes below this support.
If this scenario unfolds, the next bearish target could be the $55.15 support level.
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GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Imminent Breakout or Bull Trap?The weekly chart of GBP/USD shows a strong recovery following the late-April correction, which brought the price down to a key demand zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600. The bounce was sharp and decisive, but the pair is now facing resistance between 1.3000 and 1.3150 — a previously sold area marked by a visible supply block in red.
The current weekly candle reflects a bullish reaction, but the overall structure suggests a potential exhaustion zone for upward momentum. Price action reveals a series of lower highs in the short term, and while the RSI is bouncing, it remains far from overbought, hinting that this move may be just a technical rebound.
From a trading perspective, a confirmed weakness around the 1.3000–1.3150 zone could offer short opportunities with an initial target near 1.2700 and, if extended, down to 1.2550 — a key dynamic support area. On the flip side, a clean breakout above 1.3150 with strong volume and a weekly close would open the door for a new bullish leg toward 1.3300–1.3400.
Conclusion: GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. The next directional move will depend on how price reacts to this resistance zone: a confirmed rejection could trigger renewed selling pressure, while a confirmed breakout may reignite the bullish trend.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower following news of additional tariffs on China. On the daily chart, the index failed to break above the 20-day moving average and pulled back to the 5-day MA, continuing its box-range movement. Since the 5-day MA is still acting as support, the current trend can still be seen as a sideways consolidation, with 18,500 acting as a central pivot level.
The MACD on the daily chart has not yet clearly broken above the Signal line, so it remains uncertain whether it will make a golden cross with additional upward momentum, or turn downward again. Thus, it’s best to adopt a neutral range-bound trading strategy, keeping strict stop-losses on both sides.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have moved above the zero line, entering a key area to observe whether the third wave of MACD upside begins after this box-range consolidation. Since the current price is correcting after a rebound from a double bottom, and is maintaining the center of the prior bullish candle, buying remains more favorable. Unless the previous day’s low is broken, it’s better to stay buy-biased.
Please note that today's PPI data release is scheduled, which may lead to increased volatility around the announcement time.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower with a large bearish candle. On the daily chart, it failed to hold the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, breaking below the 5-day MA. The MACD continues its downward slope, and unless oil clearly reclaims the 10-day MA, the market will remain bear-biased.
There is resistance now at the 3-day and 5-day MAs, so it’s important to see whether further downside unfolds. As previously noted, the $59 level is a key support zone — watch closely for any breakdowns.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is trending up and pulling the Signal line along, but both remain below the zero line. If oil continues in a box range but the MACD turns downward again and forms a dead cross, there could be another leg lower. For now, continue to focus on buying near the $59 level, and maintain a range-trading approach until further confirmation.
Gold
Gold closed higher with another strong rally. On the daily chart, the MACD has now crossed above the Signal line, generating a buy signal. However, this signal will only be valid if today’s candle closes as a bullish bar, so watching the daily close is critical.
Gold hit new all-time highs during the pre-market session, with the long-awaited 3,216 level, which has been the target since March, now within reach. Beyond this level, we enter the overshooting zone, where it’s difficult to define a precise top. Therefore, it's best to stick to dip-buying strategies, as safe-haven demand continues to surge.
Even though the MACD has crossed bullishly, divergence may form if the current MACD fails to exceed the previous peak. Avoid chasing long positions at the top; instead, look for entries during pullbacks.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has climbed above the zero line, showing a strong one-way bullish trend. RSI across intraday charts is now in overbought territory, so it’s best to avoid short positions entirely for today.
Market Sentiment & VIX
Looking at the VIX index, the daily candle has once again broken above the 5-day MA, indicating that volatility could expand further at any time. With Trump’s remarks shaking markets, it’s impossible to predict what new developments might emerge over the weekend.
Avoid holding overnight positions due to heightened headline risk, and make sure to wrap up this trading week with solid risk management.
Wishing you a profitable trading day!
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What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends?What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends?
The end of the Ukraine-Russia war will undoubtedly impact major global markets,
here’s what we can expect:
Oil Market : With tensions easing, oil prices could drop as supply concerns lessen and sanctions ease. However, global demand could still keep prices stable or even high.
Gold Market : Gold, a safe-haven asset, might face a decrease in demand as geopolitical uncertainty fades, but if the end of the war leads to global economic instability, gold could remain a strong choice for investors.
Forex Market : The end of the conflict could boost the Euro and USD as stability returns to the market. At the same time, the Russian Ruble might face fluctuations as Russia’s economy adjusts to post-war conditions.
Crypto Market : Cryptocurrencies may see mixed reactions—some may retreat as confidence in traditional markets rises, but others could flow in if economic uncertainty continues to prevail globally.
🔮 The war's end could bring hope, but it also presents new challenges for markets worldwide. Stay tuned to see how it all plays out!
Analysis of Crude Oil StrategiesCrude oil bottomed out and rebounded sharply on Wednesday. This was also due to the impact of the tariff war, which is currently dominating the trend of the financial market. However, on Thursday, it didn't continue to rise. Instead, it fell successively and retraced. Pay attention to going long at the support level of 58.20 below, and consider going short at the resistance level of 61.90 above.
Oil trading strategy:
sell @ 61.90-62.10
sl 62.80
tp 60.95-61.10
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"WTI Crude Oil – Bullish Bounce from Demand Zone? "🔵 . Demand Zone:
⬇️ 60.53 – 59.71
This is the buy zone where bulls are likely to step in!
Price is currently testing this area. Watch closely!
🛑 . Stop Loss (Risk Zone):
📉 Below 59.66
If price falls below here, exit the trade – demand has failed.
🎯 . Target Point:
🚀 63.85
This is the take profit zone. A successful bounce could reach this level!
🟠 . EMA (9-period DEMA):
📉 Currently around 60.86
Price is slightly below EMA, showing short-term bearish pressure.
🟢 . Trade Idea Summary:
• Enter near the blue demand zone
• SL below 🔴 59.66
• TP at 🎯 63.85
• R:R ratio looks favorable (low risk, high reward)
Outlook:
As long as price holds above the demand zone, this setup remains bullish 📈
Let’s see if the bulls can push it to that 63.85 target! 🚀💰
Crude oil-----Buy near 65.00, target 62.30-60.00Crude oil market analysis:
Recently, crude oil has also fluctuated greatly due to the influence of fundamentals. It started to rise rapidly yesterday, and the daily line closed with a standard big hammer candle pattern. Today, we rely on the 65.20 position to buy. We can also consider buying when it falls back to a small support. Today's crude oil trend is bearish, and short-term buying and selling are both possible. The current fundamentals have basically not changed the selling of crude oil. In addition, there will be EIA crude oil inventory data tonight. Today's crude oil is expected to fluctuate greatly. Consider selling it when it rebounds to 65.00 in the Asian session.
Fundamental analysis:
Tariffs are the biggest fundamentals in the near future, and the market impact is relatively large. Today we focus on CPI data and crude oil inventory data.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----Buy near 65.00, target 62.30-60.00
WTI gets a boost, but is this really enough?We saw yesterday the positive reaction due to the pausing of tariffs. However, because of the economic uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases, the price of TVC:USOIL may see more downside.
Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed with a sharp surge following news of a possible delay in Trump’s tariff implementation. A 12% single-day rally on the daily chart is unprecedented — it was an extraordinary rise. On the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is acting as resistance, and to fully fill the April 3rd gap-down, the index would need to rise to around 19,750. If the Nasdaq continues to climb and fills that gap, a potential pullback should be anticipated.
Although the MACD has turned sharply upward in a V-shape, it hasn't fully broken above the Signal line yet. Given the rapidly changing global conditions, the possibility of a reversal still exists. However, since the 90-day tariff delay has been confirmed, the market may be entering a phase of relative stability. On the weekly chart, we see a sharp rebound that has brought the index up to the 5-week moving average. Both the Nasdaq and the VIX suggest that today could be a range-bound (sideways) session, so it's better to set wider trading ranges and adopt a box-range trading strategy.
On the 240-minute chart, a double bottom pattern has formed, with the MACD bouncing off the Signal line and rising again. The MACD is trending upward, but the Signal line remains below the zero line, which means a short-term pullback could still occur. Overall, it is advisable to use a buy-low, sell-high approach, with more upside potential still open. Also, today’s CPI report is scheduled, so please be mindful of increased volatility around the data release.
Crude Oil
Crude oil rebounded sharply from the $55 level, showing an impressive 12% range between high and low. However, the sell signal remains active. The price has broken above the 5-day moving average and entered a box range between the 5- and 10-day MAs, suggesting that a moving average-based box strategy would be effective.
On the weekly chart, oil has not yet reached the 5-week MA, so there’s still room up to the $65 level, which has historically served as strong resistance. Around that area, it might be more effective to consider short positions. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD showed signs of a third wave down, but failed to make a new low — signaling bullish divergence. A head-and-shoulders inverse pattern may be forming, with the right shoulder potentially developing around the $59–$60 zone. Overall, the strategy should remain range-based, with some more room to the upside.
Gold
Gold also closed sharply higher, benefiting from the tariff delay news. On the daily chart, the price closed higher, giving the illusion of a support bounce off the lower Bollinger Band, as that band is rising. The MACD remains above the zero line, so there’s still room for a retest of the Signal line, but given the current gap between MACD and Signal, the price needs to either rise further or move sideways to bring the MACD closer and potentially break above the Signal line.
If it fails to rise from here, the MACD may turn down again, so avoid chasing the price upward. Like Nasdaq and oil, gold is heavily influenced by global developments, so stay updated on the geopolitical landscape. On the 240-minute chart, gold formed a triple bottom around the 2,980 level and then rebounded strongly. The MACD is trending upward and pulling the Signal line along with it, but resistance around the 3,130 level remains significant. Gold may see increased volatility from today’s CPI report and tomorrow’s PPI release, so stay alert.
Market Summary
The market has been showing signs of irrational behavior. Investor sentiment is extremely volatile and driven more by emotion than logic. In times like this, it’s more important than ever to stick to the basics, shorten trade duration, cut back on risk, and trade with discipline. The more you chase after gains, the more likely your trades will be swept away by market turbulence.
Warren Buffett is considered a legend in the financial markets precisely because he has always stuck to fundamental principles. Likewise, it is crucial to establish and stick to your own trading principles to survive in the markets. If you haven’t yet experienced the kind of volatility we saw during the Trump era or the pandemic, this is a time to be especially cautious and defensive in your approach.
Wishing you another day of successful trading
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Another tariff u-turn: Oil overbought on news? President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries that have not retaliated, sparking a sharp rally in U.S. markets. The Nasdaq 100 led gains with a 12.2% surge. The U.S. dollar also strengthened against safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Crude oil prices rebounded alongside equities, with oil futures rising more than 4% to trade above $62 per barrel.
However, the strength of the oil rally may be overstated. China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, was among the first to retaliate against U.S. tariffs. Tensions between Washington and Beijing have worsened, prompting the U.S. to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%.
Adding to the caution, analysts at Goldman Sachs revised down their 2026 average price forecasts for Brent and WTI, citing rising recession risks. The bank now expects Brent to average $58 per barrel and WTI to average $55.
USOIL:You need to refer to this strategyPresident Trump of the United States suddenly announced the suspension of tariffs, which led to a significant change in market sentiment.
Since tariffs play a crucial role in global economic relations and market expectations, this unexpected move has caused investors to adjust their investment portfolios.
As the new tariff suspension policy has reduced market uncertainties to a certain extent, gold, which is usually regarded as a safe-haven asset, has been sold off.
Conversely, the price of USOIL has soared, reflecting the market's rapid response to this major policy change.
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