BRIEFING Week #9 : Is this just a Bad Dream ?!Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Oil
Weekly Market Forecast Mar 3-7: Stock Indices, Gold, Oil, moreThis is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Mar 3-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices took a bearish turn at the end of last week. Trump announcements, tariffs, Ukraine and Russia injected uncertainty into the markets, and investors moved money into safe havens.
Patience is required to trade in this environment. Wait until there are clear signs of shifts in the market before deciding on a bias. Setup confirmations are always the best course of action.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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USOIL WTI The price was in a downward trend, moving within a descending channel. A breakout from this channel indicates potential trend reversal or correction.
Consolidation Zone Identified:
The price is currently in a consolidation phase (marked in orange).
A breakout above this zone could confirm bullish momentum, while rejection could push it lower.
Key Resistance Levels for Upside Targets:
If the price breaks above the consolidation zone, it could rally toward 71.246 and 72.103 as potential resistance levels.
Green arrows indicate bullish breakout targets.
Key Support Levels for Bearish Move:
If the price fails to break above the consolidation zone, A further breakdown below this support level could push the price toward 68.400 and 66.888, the next major support.
Conclusion:
The next major move will depend on how price reacts to the consolidation zone. A breakout above could lead to bullish targets, while failure could send prices lower toward the next major support. Traders should watch for confirmation before entering trades. 🚀📉
USOIL Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 69.92
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 69.38
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Monthly, Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Due to the sharp decline last week, the 20,500 to 20,300 range was a technical rebound zone.
On the monthly chart, February closed with a bearish candle, bringing the index below the 5-day moving average and forming a range with the 10-day MA. For March, the 3-day and 5-day moving averages will act as resistance, while the 10-day MA serves as support. Since the monthly MACD is still above the signal line, even if corrections occur this month, rebound potential remains, meaning traders should be cautious about chasing shorts aggressively.
On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq fell below the 20-week MA, accelerating the sell-off. The MACD continues to slope downward, keeping further downside potential open, but since the signal line is still above zero, the index may consolidate between the 3-week and 5-week moving averages, making a range-bound strategy effective this week.
On the daily chart, both MACD and the signal line have dropped below zero, confirming a bearish market structure. The 21,000 level was broken decisively with a large bearish candle, meaning that if price struggles to reclaim this level, further downside toward the 240-day moving average is possible. If the Nasdaq falls to the 240-day MA, traders should prepare for a potential technical bounce, as historically, this level has provided support. Reviewing moving average dynamics could be helpful for understanding this scenario.
On the 240-minute chart, Friday’s low produced a strong rebound, making the MACD's potential golden cross a key signal to watch. As long as the recent lows hold, buying opportunities may exist, but since the signal line remains far above zero, selling pressure may persist on any rallies. Traders should avoid chasing long positions and focus on range trading. This week, traders should keep an eye on China’s National People's Congress (NPC) on Tuesday and the U.S. Employment Report on Friday, as both events could increase market volatility later in the week.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower within a narrow range, continuing its sideways movement. On the monthly chart, February closed with a bearish candle, causing the MACD to turn downward while still maintaining a range-bound structure. Although the MACD and signal line remain above zero, buyers are still attempting to hold support within this range. For now, oil should be traded as a large range-bound market.
On the weekly chart, last week’s doji candle suggests indecision, and this week, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell signal. However, since a weekly close is needed to confirm this, the possibility of a trend reversal remains open. If oil continues lower this week, the sell signal will be fully confirmed, but if price rebounds, last week’s doji candle could mark a reversal point. Key bullish catalysts include Trump’s potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the possibility of stricter oil sanctions on Venezuela. Meanwhile, bearish factors include economic slowdown fears reducing oil demand.
On the daily chart, breaking above $70 remains the key bullish trigger, but since the MACD has yet to form a golden cross, confirming an end to the downtrend is premature. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating a potential recovery after a pullback. For now, traders should buy dips cautiously, but breaking above $70 remains the key factor for further upside confirmation.
Gold
Gold closed sharply lower, forming a large bearish candle. On the daily chart, gold has fallen from previous highs to the lower Bollinger Band, meaning that additional downside (overshooting below support) remains possible.
On the monthly chart, gold formed a doji candle, indicating uncertainty. If gold found support at the 3-day MA last month, this month, traders should watch for support at the 5-day MA, as it could provide a buying opportunity on pullbacks.
On the weekly chart, gold has fallen to the 5-week MA, meaning that it has entered a range-bound structure. Since the lower support levels are still open, traders should avoid chasing long positions at highs and focus on buying lower. The U.S. Employment Report is due on Friday, which could increase volatility for gold.
On the daily chart, while the MACD is declining, the signal line remains well above zero, meaning that even if prices fall, rebound attempts are likely. On the 240-minute chart, further downside toward the 240-day moving average remains possible, but traders should watch for bottoming signals and potential support. If the MACD forms a golden cross, a strong rebound could follow, so monitoring short-term momentum shifts will be key.
February marked a transition to a range-bound market after an extended uptrend, suggesting that March could be a period of consolidation or further downside extension. Geopolitical risks have increased since Trump took office, and market volatility is rising due to key global events. Traders should focus on risk management and avoid overexposure. Wishing you a successful start to March! 🚀
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#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this.
Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 72
bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs.
Invalidation is below 67.8.
bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it.
Invalidation is above 72.
short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated bear channel.
WTI Crude The Week Ahead 03rd March ’25 The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 7150, 20 DMA level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7150 level could target the downside support at 6964 followed by 6850 and 6830 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7150 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7258 resistance followed by 7320 (50 DMA) levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Range Breakdown & Next Targets🔹Key Observations:
1. Range Formation & Breakout:
- The price was consolidating within a range (highlighted in the pink box).
- A range breakout trading setup is identified.
- The price has broken below the range support, signaling potential downside momentum.
2. Breakout Confirmation:
- The price has moved below a key support area (marked in blue).
- The breakdown indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend.
3. Downside Targets:
- 1st Target: $68.00 (first green line).
- 2nd Target: $67.05 (second green line).
- If the price sustains below the breakout level, these targets could be reached.
4. Volume Analysis:
- The volume bar at the bottom suggests increased selling pressure.
- The breakout occurred with notable volume, which confirms bearish sentiment.
▪️Technical Outlook:
- Bearish Bias: The chart suggests a bearish move with downside targets aligned at $68.00 and $67.05.
- Watch for Retest: If the price pulls back toward the breakout zone, it may confirm the breakdown before further decline.
- Invalidation Level: A strong recovery back above the blue support zone could invalidate the bearish setup.
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Had this planned out for weeks, Finally time
Been watching this since about $73 and drew this up and had a lot more fair value gaps ut the 68.68 was a number that lined up in a FVG and on the trendline.. Could have went to the lower one but felt safe here with a SL at $67 possibly losing the trendline. 4hr or 1 day chart. Data seemed consistent. Now we wait and see. First TP $75 possible $100 if we break out. if not we bounce in the range take some swing shorts as a hedge.
USOIL Short Idea - 4H ChartWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently facing strong resistance at the 70.50 - 71.00 supply zone, aligning with the 200 EMA rejection and previous structural resistance. The price has failed to break above this level and is showing signs of bearish momentum.
Trade Setup:
🔹 Entry: Look for bearish confirmation near the 70.50 - 71.00 supply zone.
🔹 Stop Loss: Above 71.20, beyond recent highs to avoid stop hunts.
🔹 Target: The next major support zone near 66.00 - 66.50, a key demand area.
The trend remains bearish below the 200 EMA, and the recent pullback into resistance presents a potential continuation of the downtrend. If price holds below the resistance zone, expect a further decline towards lower support levels.
📉 Watch for: Bearish rejections, engulfing candles, or lower timeframe confirmations before entering a short position.
🔔 Stay patient and follow risk management! 🚀
Market Analysis: Oil Price Eyes RecoveryMarket Analysis: Oil Price Eyes Recovery
Crude oil price is recovering and it could climb further higher toward the $71.80 resistance.
Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $68.90 resistance zone.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $69.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $68.90 resistance.
The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average and the RSI climbed toward 65. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.12 swing high to the $68.24 low.
Immediate resistance is near the $70.45 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.12 swing high to the $68.24 low.
If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $71.10. The next major resistance is near the $71.80 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.50 level.
Conversely, the price might correct gains and test the $69.50 support. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $69.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $68.90 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.25. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.50 support zone.
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USOIL BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL downtrend evident from the last 1W red candle makes longs trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 73.32 area still presents a good opportunity for us to buy the pair because the support line is nearby and the BB lower band is close which indicates the oversold state of the USOIL pair.
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Oil ($USOIL) – Diesel Demand Soars as Cold Grips U.S.Oil ( TVC:USOIL ) – Diesel Demand Soars as Cold Grips U.S.
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview! Oil is dipping slightly 📉, at $ 74.93, down 0.1% from yesterday’s close, as per February 27, 2025, data. Cold weather’s driving up U.S. diesel demand 💪, and Texas power systems are hitting clean energy milestones 🌿. Let’s dive into this oil play! 🔍
(2/9) – REVENUE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Post-Election: $ 74.93, down 0.1% from $ 75.00 💰
• Feb 27, 2025: Diesel demand rises due to cold weather 📏
• Texas Power: Clean energy milestones achieved 🌟
TVC:USOIL steady, with diesel’s boost! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Market Cap: Approximately $ 1.05B, tracks WTI crude tight 🏆
• Diesel Spike: Cold lifts usage, per Reuters ⏰
• Energy Shift: Texas clean power climbs 🎯
TVC:USOIL firm, frost pays off! 🚀
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Cold Snap: Boosts diesel usage across U.S. 🔄
• Texas Grid: Clean energy marks met 🌍
• Market Reaction: Down 0.1% post-election 📋
TVC:USOIL adapting, chill’s the star! 💡
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Election Aftermath: Policy shifts may affect prices 🔍
• Green Energy Growth: Challenges oil’s dominance 📉
• Weather Flux: Diesel demand may fluctuate ❄️
TVC:USOIL tough, but risks hover! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Diesel Lift: Cold weather props up demand 🥇
• Oil Core: Fundamental to energy needs 📊
• Resilience: Handles market fluctuations 🔧
TVC:USOIL got heat in the freeze! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Election haze, green energy bite 📉
• Opportunities: Continued cold weather, rising demand 📈
Can AMEX:USO bank on the frost to gains? 🤔
(8/9) – OIL’s $ 74.93 dip, diesel up in Feb 2025, your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: $ 80+ soon, cold lasts 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks in check ⚖️
• Bearish: $ 70 looms, green wins 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
TVC:USOIL $ 74.93 dip masks diesel’s cold surge 📈, Texas green strides mix it up 🌿. Election stings, yet dips are our DCA gold 💰. We grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust?
USOIL H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 169.24, which is a pullback support that closes to the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 71.58, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 68.29, which is a swing low support level.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to the area of 67,037 (Wave C).The price is still in a downtrend and I believe that before the price starts an upward movement it needs to complete a big “ABC” correction and a small five-wave formation.
I think the price will reach the level of 67,037. This level is quite important, because in its area we need to look carefully for reversal patterns.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Nice Setup to Sell
WTI OIL looks bearish after a test of a key daily horizontal resistance.
A formation of a head & shoulders pattern on that and a violation of its neckline
indicate a highly probable intraday bearish movement.
The price will reach at least 69.3 level soon.
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The downtrend dominates, the focus needs attentionGeneral crude oil market and WTI crude oil technical chart TVC:USOIL Still in a downward trend.
Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, which has fueled supply-side market concerns and supported a recovery in oil prices, but they are still on a downtrend and trade policy uncertainty has limited a recovery in demand expectations. The focus of the crude oil market will still need to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation, the US Dollar index, and the Trump administration's trade policy.
Notable technical levels are as follows.
Support: 68.52USD
Resistance: 70 - 71.43USD
USOIL - Short Trade (28th Feb 2025)This is a short trade idea on Crude Oil.
Basically, i'm not convinced of this sudden rejection. This is just manipulation to me. I want to target the liquidity resting below. I think we are going downtown to a monthly sSIBI at around 57.
Liquidity and efficiency rules the market. Everything else is nonsense.
- R2F Trading
General Market Analysis - SMC Point of ViewIn this video I go through an analysis of DXY, EURUSD, USDCHF, OIL, and BTC. I also delve into why I think some short-term manipulation is happening and share my narrative.
I am not fond of giving a long description here when I give my analysis in the video, so please enjoy and share your thoughts.
- R2F Trading
Crude Oil - The Manipulation of Trend LinesIn this example on Crude Oil I give some insight into how trendlines and traditional support & resistance theories may be used by "smart money" for the purposes of facilitating their positions via inducing liquidity.
Basically, trendlines are drawn along the highs or lows of price movements and help to identify the direction and strength of a trend. They serve as visual guidelines for traders, highlighting potential turning points or continuation patterns. Support and resistance levels are areas where the price historically finds a floor or ceiling, leading many market participants to place their entry and exit orders around these zones. Because these levels are based on historical price action, they hold significant psychological value among retail traders.
The Mechanism of Liquidity Manipulation
Liquidity Pools and Stop Loss Clusters:
Retail traders often cluster their stop losses near prominent support or resistance levels. Smart money is aware of these liquidity pools and can engineer price moves to trigger these stops. For example, by intentionally nudging the price through a known support level, institutional players can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. This “stop run” injects a burst of liquidity into the market, which can then be absorbed as positions are liquidated at less favorable prices for retail traders.
False Breakouts and Reversals:
Another common tactic involves creating false breakouts. A price move that breaks above a resistance level (or below a support level) might initially appear to signal a new trend. However, smart money can deliberately drive prices just past these technical barriers to trigger stop-loss orders and entry orders. Once sufficient liquidity is collected from the triggered orders, they may reverse the move. This reversal traps traders who anticipated a sustained breakout, leaving them with positions that quickly turn against them.
Exploiting Herd Behavior and Market Sentiment:
The widespread reliance on technical analysis means that many traders have similar expectations about where price will reverse or accelerate. This collective mindset, or herd behavior, creates predictable zones of liquidity. Smart money can capitalize on these self-fulfilling prophecies by anticipating the mass reaction around key trendlines and support/resistance levels. They use this insight to position themselves ahead of the crowd, executing large trades that move the market in their favor.
Strategic Benefits for Smart Money
By manipulating these common technical levels, smart money participants can:
Maximize Efficiency: Accumulate or distribute large positions with minimal market impact by tapping into pre-existing liquidity pools.
Control Market Direction: Influence short-term price movements to create advantageous conditions for larger trades.
Enhance Risk-Reward Profiles: Trigger stop losses at critical junctures, effectively reducing their own risk while capitalizing on forced exits from retail traders.
Conclusion
While trendlines and support/resistance are invaluable tools for assessing market structure and potential price movements, they also serve as instruments for liquidity manipulation by experienced market participants. The predictable nature of stop-loss placements and entry orders around these levels creates opportunities for smart money to trigger cascades of orders, generating liquidity in their favor. As a result, retail traders must be aware of these dynamics and consider them when planning their trades, acknowledging that what appears to be a genuine breakout may, in fact, be a carefully orchestrated move to capture liquidity.
This nuanced understanding highlights the double-edged nature of technical analysis tools in modern trading. By appreciating both their utility and potential for manipulation, traders can better navigate the complex interplay between market psychology and institutional strategy.