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Oil(wti)

WTI: Will Iran drag Saudi into conflict? Israeli officials are considering how to respond after an Iranian missile strike on Wednesday, which caused little damage, but definitely had the potential to do so. Their next steps could depend on the U.S. stance. President Joe Biden reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel but made it clear on Wednesday that he would not support Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Oil prices have already jumped 5% after Biden mentioned discussions about possible Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil industry. Iran, the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, exports about half of its oil, mainly to China. If tensions escalate into a broader conflict, Iran it is expected to draw Israel’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia (an even larger oil producer than Iran) and Jordan, into the confrontation.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65. Quote from last week: comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden. comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 64-74 bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again. Invalidation is above 69. outlook last week: short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength. → Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77. current swing trade: None chart update: removed broken bull trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Oil, Up or Down?On the daily chart, it can be observed that crude oil has rejected the crucial 71.67 resistance as sellers entered the market to position for a drop back towards the 65 level. For the buyers, they will require the price to break above this resistance in order to start targeting the major trendline around the 76 level. Interesting enough, there are two banks given contradictory forecast, MKTNews reports, RABOBANK: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $70 NEXT YEAR DUE TO EMERGING SUPPLY SURPLUS UBS: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE $80 PER BARREL AS INVENTORIES DECLINE
CFI:WTI
by Tekapo-Invest
4
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me. comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5. current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart key levels: 69.5 - 72 bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema. Invalidation is above 70.7. short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI CRUDE OIL: Best buy opportunity in more than a year.WTI Crude Oil is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.459, MACD = -2.670, ADX = 29.899) and coupled with the the price breaching inside the S1 Zone, the market is giving the best long term buy opportunity in more than 1 year. The S1 Zone is in place since March 15th 2023. Additionally, the 1D RSI has made a Double Bottom (DB), which has a 100% success record out of 3 times since March 2023. Every rebound to the LH trendline (pattern is a long Descending Triangle) approached the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Our TP = 78.00. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week. Quote from last week: comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76. comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 60-72 bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema. Invalidation is above 70.32 outlook last week: short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower. → Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73. short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait. medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade : None chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
USOIL - Retest at 76.55 Before Bullish Momentum Aims for 79.49 Market Update: Retest and Bullish Continuation Expected The price has already reached the resistance zone at 77.95, as noted in our previous analysis. Now, the price is expected to retest the 76.55 level before resuming its bullish trend towards 79.49. Bullish Scenario: For the bullish trend to continue, the price should stabilize above 77.94, targeting 79.49, with further potential to reach 80.73. Bearish Scenario: If the price stabilizes below 77.94, it could support a decline toward 76.55 and possibly down to 73.35. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 77.94 - Support Levels: 76.55, 75.35, 72.72 - Resistance Levels: 79.49, 80.73, 82.20 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to move between the support at 75.35 and the resistance at 82.20.
TVC:USOIL
by SroshMayi
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74. Quote from last week: comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77. Invalidation is above 75.1. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do. → Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again. current swing trade: None chart update: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
WTI - Short Trade IdeaThis is a short trade idea that fades the recent expansion upwards. I did an analysis all the way from the yearly timeframe down to the daily, and all arrows still point lower. WTI came into a yearly BISI, which is generally a big deal, but I have a feeling (also based on analysis) that we will come lower into a 6-month BISI and take out the ascending SSL below. The inefficiencies on the daily timeframes are also indicating a move lower. However, caution will be expressed in observing the creation of bullish PD Arrays on the way to my short POI. If price continues up from my short POI and closes candles above on the daily, then we may be looking at higher prices first. USDCAD, which is negatively correlated with WTI to a high degree, has some a large double top on the higher timeframe overview. This would coincide with a move lower on WTI. That being said as a USD pair, how much of a recovery can we expect on the US Dollar is this happens? - R2F
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Road_2_Funded
Copper & Oil : Are commodities about to surge? Copper is showing great pattern consolidation. it appears to be putting in a daily bull flag pattern that looks poised to breakout. If copper follows some of the other recent price action in the commodity space it makes it even more likely to surge., You're seeing #gold #uranium #oil and other all performing well. Will this dampen and slow down the dis inflation expectations? Perhaps. I am long SCCO with members and have already secured some profits today with members. I do think there is more strength to come in copper.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Trading-Capital
1
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again. WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again. I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year. DS
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXcom
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 76.54 (Wave "a").Dear colleagues, after the last target achievement the price is actively growing and I believe that this growth is not over yet, but I expect a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 76.54. This movement is a corrective wave "b". After it I will consider the continuation of the upward movement, but at the moment the price needs wave "b". Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
2
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 72.631 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, I am still hoping for a downward movement, it's just that I have revised the wave formation because the price has gone quite high. At the moment, I believe that the price is now completing the movement in the senior wave "2". After reaching the resistance area of 84.00 - 85.00, I expect the beginning of the big wave "3"! Therefore, I suggest to take what happened as an opportunity to enter a short position in the most profitable way! Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
28
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future: 1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India. 2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines. 3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases. 5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases. ### Conclusion Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cryptowormshot