🛢️ OIL- Support Now and off to 80-93$ 🛳️Further to our previous idea last week :
Price is back on he rise after the mini-crash last Friday on Botswana mutation fears.
NEWS:
Omicron appears to be producing more mild cases of COVID-19 so far. Public health officials are encouraged—but cautious
Crude Oil Prices Could Reach $125 a Barrel. Here’s Why .
Expectation is that most likely price can rise again now. Back to the 80$ mark or even further , in an attempt to break back into the previous ascending channel on our chart.
Cheaper Oil can partially fix inflation but at this stage nobody wants to miss the Xmas season. Especially Europe on a weak euro and the rest of the world after last years lockdowns.
Mutation do tend to spread faster but to be less serious.
May this pandemic be over soon even if we pay more for Oil for a while.
one Love,
the FXPROFESSOR Crude Oil - Wti Back to 70,64
Oil(wti)
Crude Oil Price Analysis: Can oil price up again? Oil prices are up in trading today as traders eye potential for a bounce-back after being badly beaten down at the end of last week.
WTI suffered its worst performance this year with an 11% drop to $67.50 before finding some footing again around $71.50.
Although it remains weaker than usual due mainly because there's no sign yet that supply confronted by demand will ease anytime soon—even though most analysts still think inventories have been building too much all winter long.
The oil markets were in a slump on Friday as the Omicron headlines hit. Still, there is a serious consideration that what may heavily dampen oil bullishness due to recent developments.
Suppose more people die from this virus next year. In that case, those investing money in oil will lose hope for it being an optimistic fundamental outlook that could cause them to make decisions based on fear rather than the possibility.
This passage mainly discusses how one event can change many peoples' perspectives about what they believe their future holds.
Even we saw last year oil price dropped nearly $00 for somewhile. So, if the pandemic situation becomes worse like the previous year, the oil's demand will collapse, and crude oil prices may drop again vastly.
The ramifications of an Omicron variant crisis are huge, but it's not all gloom. If border controls tighten and more onerous restrictions are imposed globally again, there will probably be no quick fix to resolve the global oil market outlook.
We should be careful until vaccinations have had their chance at relieving us from worst-case scenarios once more if they're needed even sooner than expected.
If the world leaders can control Omicron and prove nothing more than a hiccup, Friday's retreat will be quite the dip to buy in on Friday, especially when we still need a few weeks.
But, one can't rule out dead cat bounce just yet because it may take some time for things to settle and cool off from such high volatility movements.
Suppose Omicron is just a hiccup. Then, it will continue its buying pressure. And If Omicron is absolute, then it will continue its Selling pressure again.
WTI Falls 13% In A Day; The Battle For The Price Of Oil ContinueThe price of oil dropped 13% on Friday (26/11/21), marking the commodities worst single day in 2021.
A drop in oil prices this large was last seen in January/February 2020, when WTI was making its way down to unprecedented negative per barrel territory. No one expects oil to veer this low again, but the comparison to 2020 is apt, with Coronavirus responsible for the commodity’s downfall on both occasions.
New Coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa
An effort to lower the price of oil had begun before the new Coronavirus strain, named the Omicron variant, appeared.
Led by the US, a strategic release of Oil reserves was being enacted or considered by members of the International Energy Alliance (IEA) in an attempt to lower the price of oil, which they saw as hampering their respective economic recoveries.
It has been claimed that the strategic release would have little effect on the oil price, as the quantity to be released is half of the world’s daily consumption. Yet, oil has fallen from its 2021 highs of US ~$85 per barrel since the announcement.
In response, OPEC+ was said to be reconsidering its plan output increase to counter the strategic reserve release by the US and its IEA allies. The OPEC+ rumours helped plug some of the losses oil was experiencing, but not enough to stop consistent weekly losses in the commodity’s price. By Friday, oil had rung up five weeks of straight price decreases.
Is the Omicron threat overshooting the fair price of oil?
The Omicron variant is possibly the worst coronavirus variant known, as reported by the BBC. However, uncertainty exists as to how vaccine resistant, virulent, and deadly the strain is compared to its predecessors. As such, countries quickly moved to restrict travel from South Africa, reminiscent of January/February 2020, when international travel came to a screeching halt, and the price of oil fell from US $63 per barrel to sub-zero.
Countries that have placed travel restrictions on South Africa (and other African nations) include the US, the UK, and Germany.
As of writing, WTI is trading at US $68.16 per barrel, as mentioned above, 13% lower than Thursday’s price.
Two questions come to mind:
Has the market reacted too severely to the threat posed by Omicron?
Can the strategic release of oil by IEA nations now be halted or pared back?
Regarding the former, Goldman notes that Omicron should have only warranted a ~6.5% drop in the price of oil and that the commodity should quickly recoup some of Friday’s dip.
Regarding the latter, it might not be too late to turn this tap off. IEA nations have pledged to release as much as 80 million barrels of oil, with 50 million of these barrels coming from the US. However, a genuine commitment from IEA members has yet to be agreed upon, with discussions still underway as of Friday.
WTI - Crude Oil Futures Hi, maybe I am not objective person but I am happy to be a holder of Exxon Mobil stocks.
I see that oil business is going in good direction in USA. The business is still developing.
My good question is where will be a top pick of Oil? Anybody can guess? We are still in the positive direction and the trend is still going up.
I wish all good.
My lovely indicator - MACD and SMA.
All in good direction.
USOIL REBOUNCE READY FOR LONG🚀WTI Is falling from the recent highs
In a bearish correction to retest the strong key support level below.
Once the price hits the level expecting a strong rebound and a move up to retest a local resistance above
LONG🚀
There is broadening pattern and look like the price is going to test the bottom trendline and its Daily Support.
Resistance 1
84.5 - 85.5 supply area
Support 1
73.0 - 75.0 demand area
Support 2
61.5 - 62.5 demand area
Conclusion: Fluctuation between 77-85 is the most probable Scenario!
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WTI OILWTI oil is short for 1 or 2 weeks, also goes for Long for next 3 months, it depends on the Biden's administration decision on energy and how cold the winter will be, I think Biden's administration has no idea about oil and they do not know How do big players play in this field? I see $ 90 to $ 100 in the first quarter of 2022.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (2nd November 2021)USOIL ceased its decline at 80.62 USD per barrel just three days ago. Since then USOIL reversed to the upside and now it trades around 84.25 USD per barrel. In our previous two ideas we noted that despite correction in price we would remain bullish on oil in medium-term and long-term. In addition to that, we noted correction in price could serve as good (re)entry opportunity for long position. Demand continues to pick up while recovery progresses further; and we continue to maintain bullish stance as we expect price to climb even higher. We would like to set new short-term price target to 85 USD per barrel. Our medium-term price target is 87.50 USD while our long-term price target remains 90 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI is bullish as it strives to penetrate 70 points into overbought territory. If it manages to do so, then we expect such occurence to be accompanied by further rise in price. Stochastic is also bullish, however, MACD is bearish. DM+ and DM- remain bullish. Although, ADX started to decline slightly which suggests that trend is weakening. Overall we are bullish on USOIL.
Support and resistance
Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD. Short-term support sits at 82.50 USD and Support 1 lies at 80 USD. Support 2 appears at 76.95 USD while Support 2 lies at 74.21 USD. Then major support level sits at 61.58 USD.
Our latest idea on USOIL from 28th October 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
USOIL LONGNews:
The Biden administration has asked some of the world`s largest oil consuming nations - including China, India and Japan - to consider releasing crude stockpiles in a coordinated effort to lower global energy prices, according to several people familiar with the matter.
The unusual request comes as US President Joe Biden fends off political pressure over rising pump prices and other consumer costs driven by a rebound in economic activity from lows plumbed early in the coronavirus pandemic.
We are thoroughly reviewing the U.S. request, however, we do not release oil reserve because of rising oil prices. We could release oil reserve in case of supply imbalance, but not to respond to rising oil prices," the official said.
Watch the $DXY for $CL_F #Oil The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days.
Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today.
It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term.
The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher.
Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar.
So today may be a make or break day for oil.
OIL WTI, H4 - Possible Gartley paternAfter reaction on 61.8, possible Gartley pattern at 78.6 retracement. Some bullish reaction expected at 75.60
Professional Crude Oil analysis.Here we have a WTI crude oil chart.
Strong fundamentals with shortages globally have driven Oil up to great highs.
This has caused a backlash fast move down to our previous support and a quick move back up preceding it.
For this reason we are now turning short again to catch it back down to this level.
We caught it long at the Support + MA's and are now looking to accumulate shorts for a move back down.
MarketBreakdown | WTI OIL, GOLD (XAUUSD), USDCHF, EURCAD
Hey traders,
here is a brief technical outlook of 4 peculiar instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ WTI Crude Oil - Daily time frame 🛢️
The market remains bullish. For now, the price perfectly respects the boundaries of a rising channel.
Of course, the market is heavily overbought at the moment. Consider the breakout of a support of a channel
as a signal of a coming correctional movement.
2️⃣ GOLD (XAUUSD) - 6H time frame 🥇
Thursday was very bullish for the market & the price reached 1810 local structure high.
With a formation of three equal highs & three equal lows, it looks like gold is consolidating at the moment & stuck within horizontal trading range.
To catch the next bullish move wait for a breakout of resistance of the range,
that will be your trigger to buy.
3️⃣ USDCHF - Daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭
After a strong bearish rally, the price is approaching 0.91 key daily structure support.
Taking into consideration that the pair is relatively oversold at the moment
I would expect a pullback from that level.
Look for a confirmation on lower time frames to buy safely.
4️⃣ EURCAD - Weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇨🇦
The market reached key weekly structure support.
I believe that the price will bounce from that structure.
Again, to buy safely, look for a confirmation on a lower time frame.
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
OIL Intraday. Aiming 1:10 RRMissed a sell on oil today.
Risk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!!
All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min chart. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity.
Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes.
Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
OIL Intraday. Aiming 1:10 RRRisk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!!
All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min chart. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity.
Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes.
Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
OIL Intraday. Aiming 1:10 RRRisk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!!
All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min chart. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity.
Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes.
Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
$69 Next target for Oil? -Oil prices drop 2% overnight as US energy policy news had a negative effect on oil
-Oil prices break below July swing high as shorters take control of the market in the last 40 hours
-UK Newspaper Financial Times FT reported eased supply concerns further
According to the technical analysis above, we can see that the daily candle yesterday formed a nice BEOB Bearish Outside Bar candle, which is one of the strongest price action reversal signs.
Expecting that the price will continue to the downside and reached the first demand level of $69 per barrel.
Education excerpt: OPECThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent intergovernmental organization with main goal to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries. This pertains mainly to securing fair and stable pricing in the oil market; efficient and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations and fair return on capital to the producing countries.
The OPEC was established in Baghdad, Iraq in 1960 by five countries. Founding countries were: Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. One year later the organization was joined by Qatar in 1961. After that Indonesia and Libya followed in 1962. United Arab Emirates joined the cartel in 1967 and Algeria in 1969. Then Nigeria became member of the OPEC in 1971, Ecuador in 1973 and Gabon in 1975. Few decades later, Angola joined the OPEC in 2007, Equatorial Guinea in 2017 and Congo in 2018.
Ecuador suspended its membership in 1962. However, it rejoined the cartel in 2007. But then again in 2009 Ecuador withdrew its membership from OPEC. Similarly, Indonesia suspended its membership in 2009 and rejoined the cartel in 2016 only to leave it again in 2016. Gabon also suspended its membership in 1995. Although, Gabon reactivated its membership in 2016. Qatar was the last country to terminate its membership in 2019.
Current members:
1. Iraq
2. Iran
3. Kuwait
4. Saudi Arabia
5. Venezuela
6. Libya
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Algeria
9. Nigeria
10. Gabon
11. Angola
12. Equatorial Guinea
13. Congo
The OPEC's executive organ is called the Secretariat and it is run by the Secretary General. Secretariat was originally established in 1961. It also functions as headquarters for the organization. In the beginning, OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland for five years. However, OPEC's headquarters were moved to Vienna, Austria in 1965. Executive organ is responsible for implementation of all resolutions passed by the Conference. Secretariat also conducts research and fullfills all decisions made by the Board of Governeros.
The Secretary General is the representative of the OPEC who simultaneously acts as Executive of the Secretariat. The Secretary General is electable role and its term last three years. Although, there is possibility to renew this term once. The Secretary General is assisted by the Office of the Secretary general and several other officers and staff members of the OPEC. The Office of the Secretary general helps the executive chief of the Secretariat to maintain efficient relations with relevant international organizations and governments. Another important organ of the organization is the Legal Office which supervises legal matters of the Secretariat and provides legal advice to the Secretary General. In addition to that, there is also the Research Division that consists of three departments: Data Services, Energy Studies and Petroleum Studies. The Research Division is responsible for conducting research with regards to the energy and related matters. Infrastructure and services are provided by the Support Services Division.
OPEC Fund
The OPEC Fund for International Development is international finance development institution that was established in 1976. It consists of 12 members: Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Its purpose is to provide financial help to the developing countries and support advancement in these low-income and middle-income countries.
Disclaimer: This content serves solely educational purpose.
WTI OIL Buy levels the MA50/200. Potential $90 move if 77 breaksOn my most recent WTI Oil idea two weeks ago, I highlighted the importance of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that emerged on the 1D time-frame and why the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was the 1st buy candidate of the current bullish leg:
As you see the 1D MA50 worked perfectly as a buy entry and the upper Resistance targets have been hit. However since the price was rejected just below the 77.00 Resistance, it is possible to see another 1D MA50 test, which again will be our first buy entry. Second and final will be the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) if the Pivot Zone fails to support.
If however we close a 1D candle above the 77.00 Resistance then it will be a bullish break-out of the Inverse Head and Shoulders, in a similar way as the previous IH&S that broke upwards on May 28 2021. The break-out extended as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. If the same sequence is followed, then the 2.0 is currently at 92.24. In that case our long-term target will be $90.
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
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