TECHNICAL LONG OIL. TINY STOP. GOOD RISK REWARD.A good opportunity has presented itself for a long trade in oil.
A mid term trade, from a nice level. First take gives us a roughly 2:1 risk reward and I will be closing half of my position there.
Next take is at the first big resistance level. I will close my entire position there.
The stop is very short, yet, pay attention, to that it is not ON the level, but slightly BELOW the level.
Avoid simple mistakes.
Wish you luck!
Oil(wti)
Oil, potential double top in the makingOil made a big rally past week or 2, past days it was moving inside of a tight range which resulted in a triangle/flag. Now since yesterday it broke upwards, but so far not a big move up yet. This is a bit premature, but this could mean we have a false break out here.
You can also see a small double top on the left, but unconfirmed so far of course. If we would see a drop to the green zone coming hour or 2, could mean the double top is real. If we see a fast dump below the green, could mean the breakout of the big triangle was a fake and we continue to drop even more.
So at the moment, would say bulls are in favor, but tricky at this point. If we follow the blue line, but in a slow pace, could go towards the 27/27.3. If we see a big fast dump below the green and continue to dump below 27ish as well, good chance a high is set for the coming days and maybe weeks even.
So for now, it's wait and see what happens coming hours.
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Previous analysis:
WTI Oil - Short - July ContractHello,
WTI has had a strong run up since April 28th and rode in an Ascending Channel. WTI broke lower out of the Ascending Channel and I was expecting a breakout level of $23.77, but that did not occur as price action tried to retest the high.
I've outlined a few things in my chart. Even though I am short and this chart is mainly providing insight to short opportunities, I will go over a couple bullish obstacles in the near term. There is every chance bulls will want to break $28 and fill a gap around $28.76 . If they are able to achieve that price gap fill and have the candle finish above $28 then I believe we will need to wait until the bullish momentum weakens before putting on a short position. However, if the bulls try for $28 and the gap fill, they risk a Triple Top, which I believe will see significant bear pressure.
While there are talks of re-opening across the globe, there is still a lot of work to be done before things return to normal. Storage is still a concern and despite Gasoline demand picking up, that doesn't mean Crude demand has picked up the same level. Therefore, I carry a bearish bias and I'm looking at shorting WTI July futures.
Looking at the chart, we are currently trading within a Horizontal Channel and roughly in the middle of the channel at the moment. With June contracts coming to expiry next week I believe there will be downward pressure on July contracts so there isn't such a wide spread upon rolling over so I'm looking for a downside breakout out of the Horizontal Channel. Initial breakout target can be $21.18 , which is the 32.8% Fib level, but expect some support as price moves down towards the 50 day MA.
For those who have appetite for larger targets, I have outlined a price gap at $19.70 , which can be viewable on multiple time-frames. If that isn't enough of a Short target for you, then I have also outlined another potential target at $15.45 , which is another price gap but found on the 3 min time-frame (less reliable).
Overall, I think it is unrealistic that because certain countries are discussing re-opening or have initiated pockets of re-opening that suddenly Crude demand is back and storage is no longer an issue. I don't think we will see negative prices like we saw for May contracts, but there is absolutely zero chance WTI simply goes up in a straight line and I think it is time for some decent retracement.
Let me know your thoughts and comments. Cheers and good luck.
USOIl. Long. Bull pennant Oil looks good for a buy after the hour candle spike in volume to confirm the bull pennant. Candle closed pretty much above the support box just 5 min moving averages are lagging a bit.
RSI is looking strong and stochastic is still nicely oversold on the hourly so plenty of room to breathe upwards.
First take profits at the break of the bull pennant. Could hold some to see if we get a further move upwards. Stop at the low of the hourly candle.
WTI OIL, Weekly - time for a reboundIn our previous analysis, we mentioned key levels near 161,8 Fibo expansion where also the target for a head and shoulders pattern has been set. Precisely in this chart, the price has bounced back near these levels fulfilling an Elliott wave impulse structure.
We may clearly see that the recent drop consists of five waves. As a consequence currently we could expect a rebound which should at least could consist of three waves labeled as abc.
The potential resistance for wave a is located at 29,14 USD. When it is finished the market could create another wave in corrective structure - wave b with potential support at 20 USD. After that, the market may create another upward wave - c.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
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Oil's savior?!Can these two trend lines be the savior oil needs right now? I'm just trying to do my part to prop up oil prices and hopefully get an invitation into OPEC.
It's a long shot but WTI could be forming a descending wedge bottom pattern.
Confirmation would be at least one more touch on the bottom and top trend lines, failure when multiple daily closes under bottom trend.
Simple Gap Fill Idea On BLACK GOLD, WTI Market CrashWell, we have a pretty clear gap on oil. And there is a gamblers chance that this will fill sooner than later. I like the $5-7 range for a bounce but you MIGHT need to reduce leverage and hold these plays for months in this environment. However, after yesterdays moves, we might be setting up for some serious volatility in the near term. This is not trading advice.
USOIL could reverse down after ending diagonal WTI could be in wave (C), which undfolds now within an ending diagonal.
It already reached the 1.414 of wave (A).
The wave 5 should complete it.
Then the drop is expected, which first should break below trendline support.
The final confirmation is below wave 4 of (C) under 13.19
The structure of the drop will show whether it will be a retest of the low or the joint correction.
$SPY : Grinding higher on low vol even as #WTI tanks$S{Y 500 managed a minor breakout yesterday above the April high as it slowly grinds it way up to the 0.618 retrace tgt of 293. There is immediate resistance at gap above but $ES futures are again trading about .33% higher from yesterdays close.
$SPY is now above its 50-day MA and if it takes out the gap resistance then 293 target remains viable.
$WTI June futures contract crashed by 25% yesterday. Currently $WTI is trading down another 20% from yesterday.
Small Caps (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)) rocketed up 3.96% yesterday, by far the greatest out performance in indices. When #OIL gets in gear with the equity indices bullishness $IWM small caps will likely outperform $SPY substantially.
OIL how low can you go?Historically oil has been in a down trend for almost 20yrs, along with the trend current global conditions are removing demand from the equation with average expected decreases of 2 million barrels a day! To make matters worse supply has not decreased at all! Multiple oil producing nations are continuing production regardless of decreased demand and prices, causing a HUGE glut in supply that is demanding storage of the oil in some unconventional ways.
I believe there will be more downside to the oil price in the near future, but with the continued money printing by all central banks oil just may break the downward wedge it has created and see ever higher nominal prices along with every other commodity when the money hits the fan.
God Speed!