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Oil(wti)

WTI Oil - Short - July ContractHello, WTI has had a strong run up since April 28th and rode in an Ascending Channel. WTI broke lower out of the Ascending Channel and I was expecting a breakout level of $23.77, but that did not occur as price action tried to retest the high. I've outlined a few things in my chart. Even though I am short and this chart is mainly providing insight to short opportunities, I will go over a couple bullish obstacles in the near term. There is every chance bulls will want to break $28 and fill a gap around $28.76 . If they are able to achieve that price gap fill and have the candle finish above $28 then I believe we will need to wait until the bullish momentum weakens before putting on a short position. However, if the bulls try for $28 and the gap fill, they risk a Triple Top, which I believe will see significant bear pressure. While there are talks of re-opening across the globe, there is still a lot of work to be done before things return to normal. Storage is still a concern and despite Gasoline demand picking up, that doesn't mean Crude demand has picked up the same level. Therefore, I carry a bearish bias and I'm looking at shorting WTI July futures. Looking at the chart, we are currently trading within a Horizontal Channel and roughly in the middle of the channel at the moment. With June contracts coming to expiry next week I believe there will be downward pressure on July contracts so there isn't such a wide spread upon rolling over so I'm looking for a downside breakout out of the Horizontal Channel. Initial breakout target can be $21.18 , which is the 32.8% Fib level, but expect some support as price moves down towards the 50 day MA. For those who have appetite for larger targets, I have outlined a price gap at $19.70 , which can be viewable on multiple time-frames. If that isn't enough of a Short target for you, then I have also outlined another potential target at $15.45 , which is another price gap but found on the 3 min time-frame (less reliable). Overall, I think it is unrealistic that because certain countries are discussing re-opening or have initiated pockets of re-opening that suddenly Crude demand is back and storage is no longer an issue. I don't think we will see negative prices like we saw for May contracts, but there is absolutely zero chance WTI simply goes up in a straight line and I think it is time for some decent retracement. Let me know your thoughts and comments. Cheers and good luck.
TVC:USOILShort
by Emperor_Palpatine
2
USOIl. Long. Bull pennant Oil looks good for a buy after the hour candle spike in volume to confirm the bull pennant. Candle closed pretty much above the support box just 5 min moving averages are lagging a bit. RSI is looking strong and stochastic is still nicely oversold on the hourly so plenty of room to breathe upwards. First take profits at the break of the bull pennant. Could hold some to see if we get a further move upwards. Stop at the low of the hourly candle.
TVC:USOILLong
by breakoutfakeout
WTI OIL, Weekly - time for a reboundIn our previous analysis, we mentioned key levels near 161,8 Fibo expansion where also the target for a head and shoulders pattern has been set. Precisely in this chart, the price has bounced back near these levels fulfilling an Elliott wave impulse structure. We may clearly see that the recent drop consists of five waves. As a consequence currently we could expect a rebound which should at least could consist of three waves labeled as abc. The potential resistance for wave a is located at 29,14 USD. When it is finished the market could create another wave in corrective structure - wave b with potential support at 20 USD. After that, the market may create another upward wave - c. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
TVC:USOIL
by Daniel_Kostecki
$SPY : Grinding higher on low vol even as #WTI tanks$S{Y 500 managed a minor breakout yesterday above the April high as it slowly grinds it way up to the 0.618 retrace tgt of 293. There is immediate resistance at gap above but $ES futures are again trading about .33% higher from yesterdays close. $SPY is now above its 50-day MA and if it takes out the gap resistance then 293 target remains viable. $WTI June futures contract crashed by 25% yesterday. Currently $WTI is trading down another 20% from yesterday. Small Caps (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)) rocketed up 3.96% yesterday, by far the greatest out performance in indices. When #OIL gets in gear with the equity indices bullishness $IWM small caps will likely outperform $SPY substantially.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
OIL how low can you go?Historically oil has been in a down trend for almost 20yrs, along with the trend current global conditions are removing demand from the equation with average expected decreases of 2 million barrels a day! To make matters worse supply has not decreased at all! Multiple oil producing nations are continuing production regardless of decreased demand and prices, causing a HUGE glut in supply that is demanding storage of the oil in some unconventional ways. I believe there will be more downside to the oil price in the near future, but with the continued money printing by all central banks oil just may break the downward wedge it has created and see ever higher nominal prices along with every other commodity when the money hits the fan. God Speed!
TVC:USOILShort
by AMERICANHANDYMAN
Good news everyone!Robinhood investors are back! More than 200,000 holders now ^^ More souls to harvest. This reminds me of videos on youtube "Bronze 5 fails" where they make fun of the bottom 10-20% of players (game is league of legends), and they get millions of views. Players are absolutely awful and it is hilarous to watch. 200k holders... 10 million robinhood users... Bottom 2%? I don't know if those awful investors are the bottom 20% or 80%, sometimes seems like the later but I think alot of people just stay away from stocks anyway. "Young investors rush into struggling oil ETF that isn’t even tracking the price of oil anymore" www.cnbc.com "“A low price handle is always a retail trap,” Davi told CNBC in a phone interview." Haha you don't say. Those wise cheap buy investors don't even know what they are buying. CL1! is at $10 now, a worry might be that as USO rolls to the next month it turns negative. They used to sell half 2 weeks before the last trading day and the other half at the end I think. If Oil turns negative we cannot short it anymore, and good buy contango profit. I don't know how big their impact on negative prices was, probably big looking at how big of a hit they took. CME itself ordered them to limit their size, they're now 20% in June 40% in July 20% August 20% September, which I guess is something closer to what dumb money wants. So they win in a way. In another way they don't win because they'll lose everything. www.chicagobusiness.com If CME made them reduce their size... They must have had a part to play in -40... And the CME even saw it coming and warned of negative prices. Professionals have made $300 millions betting against retail... And all I made was a few hundreds... www.cnbc.com Owners of the fund are making a 1-8 reverse split to stay attractive to ignorant retail investors. www.prnewswire.com The tragedy of a fund dropped hard even when Oil bounced way up... And guess what the 29 their price will gap way up and go to $17 wait they were aiming for Oil price? XDDD Already down to 10 bucks but I guess next months are up above 17. Yum yum, I hope they grow. If they can keep selling the front month to buy the continuous next and hold 20% of open interest that would be great. Push 1! down, push 2! up. Come on bullbros we need strong support we can't let the bears win so keep buying at these cheap prices. Only 2 years ago they were ridiculous opportunities when mainstreet got into altcoins, and already we have this, the difference is this scam looks like it will last a while. Expecting more money to be poured into experienced traders pockets from retail in the future. Not very skilled and even average investors are at high risk in those uncertain highly volatile times, sad, there is some really nearly free money to be made. So as I was saying, bottom 20% players... Say we eliminate the bottom 5% that are disabled, this gives the bottom 25% - 5% ==> 75 to 90 IQ (with average 100) and 5% are below 75 which is disability. 20% of the pop is in the 75-90 range damn. 1/5 of voters. 10% 75-85 10% 85-90. Not sure they should be allowed to invest. And maybe they're not the ones at all...? Kinda seems weird to imagine rocket scientists buying garbage like this. I really don't feel sorry for them. They'll get their money back via government help that takes from the smart, and they behave like animals and are disrepectful and everything and commit so many crimes and they laugh at smart people like being smart is weird and risible. Really interesting story. And I'm very positive about volatility, strong moves in 1 direction, contangos. Also I wonder what happens when this ETF has to liquidate... Just go short !2? XD On April 23, CME ordered the funds not to exceed 15,000 long futures contracts for June. For July 2020, the limit is 78,000 long futures contracts while for August it’s 50,000 and for September 35,000. They say they have a total of 150k, if the limit in June is 15k that's 10% not 20... w/e. Can't trust journies. Not a huge contango here, well it's huge but I mean compared to 1! and 2! I wonder when they are going to sell July. Should I call and pretend to be an investor 😁? Oh I know how to convince them "I looked at the RSI and MACD and I noticed they were very oversold I also noted the price recovered congratulations" May Robinhood holders go to 1 million! May Trump print billions to bailout US Oil producers! 🐂🐄🐮 => ⚙️grinder⚙️ => 🥩🥩🥩 Yummy!
AMEX:USOShort
by MrRenev
15
$SPY : Fib 0.618 retrace at 293$SPY is range bound for the past 14 trading days. It remains above 20 EMA and hence constructive for the intermediate term. Next likely target is the 61.8 fib retrace at 293. $SPY closing below the 20 EMA may start the next leg down. CB's still firing bazookas with BoJ today declaring unlimited buying of government bonds and removed price momentum from its forward guidance. The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank will also publicize their monetary policy measures this week. Both these banks are fighting the devastation of economic activity in their economies and are expected to retain market supportive policies. However #oil remains under pressure with $WTI down more than 17% and Brent oil down about 4% as of now. Not sure if this weakness in #oil will spill over to the general markets. So far the markets have taken this decimation of oil industry in stride.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
1