WTI Crude - An End to the Price War?Market has high expectations for OPEC+++
The stand-out event today is undoubtedly the OPEC+++ meeting, where producers will attempt to find agreement on output that addresses the collapse in demand and crude prices.
No one is winning in this environment but, as ever, each are losing to different degrees and have a different ideas on how it should be resolved. I don’t think a grand deal is as nailed on as markets would have us believe but, as ever, common sense should prevail.
If a substantial deal is going to get over the line, the US must play a part in some form. It is currently hoping that a market-driven, forced production cut will be enough to convince other producers to cut but I’m not sure that will be enough. Other assurances will be necessary to get Russia on board, which is the biggest risk to a deal.
That said, traders have heavily bought into this potential deal, following President Trump's tweet last week. The risk now is not just whether a deal is done but, if it is, will it be enough? I'm not sure a 10 million barrel cut will be enough to hold the gains and even 15 million may just about given the demand destruction we've seen.
Should we see above 15 million barrels, it could give the oil price a big boost, with the break of $30 in WTI potentially being the catalyst for another big move higher. The next notable level above here is $35 and if producers want to see higher than this, the cut may have to be closer to 20 million and include the US in some form.
Oil has jumped today on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a deal on cuts of up to 20 million. The headline sounds good but the small print may not read quite as well. Should this be confirmed without any drawbacks in the fine print, I'd expect oil prices to rise more than they have.
There's always the risk of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" strategies going into these things which is why the detail and believability is so important.
From a technical standpoint, this looks like a market that's bottomed and just waiting to pounce above $30, but for that we need confirmation. A break above $30 says traders are satisfied with the cuts, at which point we may be able to look upwards for the first time in a while.
Oil(wti)
OAS LongOasis Petroleum was one of the hardest hit producers following the collapse of oil. As oil begins to recover and OPEC+ agree on productions cuts, we will see OAS begin to climb back.
As the RSI chart indicates, the price has oscillated in a tight range. However, the RSI has begun to diverge and move upward indicating a bullish bias. The stock as at all times lows. Oil is not going away any time soon. Safe to accumulate long positions here in my opinion.
Best of luck trading!
CRUDE OIL (WTI) KEEP CALM! TREND IS STILL BEARISH!
hey guys,
reading news outlets and ideas on tradingview, the forecasts are all bullish right now!
people are urged to buy from any level based on the fundamental news.
be very careful! though we truly see a dramatic shift and strong bullish rally this week,
don't forget that technically the trend remains bearish!
moreover, currently, the price is trading on a key structure resistance level and for now
buyers could not break above that and we see a negative reaction.
the next safe opportunity to buy will come only after a bullish breakout of the underlined resistance,
for now just patiently watch the reaction of the market.
it is still possible that next week we may see a perfect signal to short.
so no rush right now!
good luck and have a great weekend!
WTI Oil, H4 - possible wave CThe recent sharp upward movement on the oil market caused by Donald Trump’s tweets looks like a possible wave C in a larger corrective movement. Previously the price of crude oil has reached the new low and has created a potential wave B which consists of three waves down. Before wave B we may spot a nice sharp rally which could be labeled as wave A. Currently the wave C may have been created. The potential resistance may be located at the wave A top near 28,20 USD.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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oil, cl, day trading for Apr 2nd 2020the early session has been all long and is balancing near teh highs so will be watching for a test of the lower balance (Red low) for a continuation long or a break lower, So that lays out plan a and plan b.
Everything will depend on how we respond off the lows. and in the event we only test the high will look for break that retests for a long.
EIA Report Shows Larger Than Expected Build in Crude InventoriesHeadlines
• EIA Report Shows Larger Than Expected Build in Crude Inventories of 13.833 Million Barrels
• Equities in Europe & US Continue Their Fall as Sentiment Surrounding the Virus Weighs on Investors
• SNOC Pauses LNG Storage Terminal Project as it Completes Further Evaluation on Discovery
Gasoline Falls in Asia + Stock Futures Fall in Europe & USHeadlines:
• Crude Finishes Flat Whilst Gasoline Futures Drop -6% Within Asia
• CNOOC Announces the Postponement of its Canadian East Coast Project Due to Covid-19
• US Futures Fall as Virus Concerns Reappear Whilst Asia Starts the Quarter Off Lower
cl, oil, day trading for Mar 31st 2020oil has been moving up but is now testing its entire current range and the bottom of this range is critical to the bull case for the day. W also could be expanding the chop zone to include yesterday and today, we will know this better by days end.
I will be looking for the long and short inside the red zone until the red zone is broke and at that point trading in the breaking direction trying to make the targets posted.
Crude Dips Below $20 a Barrel before Recovering End of SessionHeadlines
• Crude Dips Below $20 a Barrel before Recovering at End of Session to 20.09
• Global Stocks Begin the Week Higher as IT & Health Care Lead Indexes Higher
• Norwegian Energy Ministry Proposes Exploration Blocks Amidst Falling Prices
WTI US crude oil. Buy. Divergence. Gap fill?Here we can see a nice divergence of lower prices with a rising RSI and MACDH divergence on the hourly. Nice Doji reversal candle to.
Analysis of the WTI charts shows big volume on this candle to.
Is this a double bottom? Will we see a big pump up to the neckline? Resistance box to get through first. As always I'll be taking profits as we hit that and buying pullbacks again on the 5 min (or 1 min depending on momentum) charts.
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 30 2020The pre regular hours trading has oil seeing new lows however is forming a bottom heavy balance that looks to be pointing to lower levels. Upon RTH open can see oil bouncing up a little before dropping firmly into the teens. I will be ready for this bounce part to not happen additionally will remain leaning short if the Red zone top can not be moved past.
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 27th 2020The session started consolidated then broke to the down side and now looks like it wants to test the low of this current drop. there is a bottom test range of 20.80 and 21.70 that could cause oil to chop around before looks at lower levels. The red bottom could also act as some support. Will be leaning short but also will be ready to change long if we get back above the red zone top.
BRENT OIL FUTURES: Be Prepared For Breakout
long period of contraction on brent oil.
with a sequence of lower highs and long term bearish trend, the chances are high that market participants are preparing for the next wave to the downside.
pay attention to the underlined horizontal support and sell its bearish breakout!
what is the target? I don't know! No structure on the left! Let's see together :)
p.s trading triangles, a preferable stop is above the last lower high!
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Oil will drop more without OPEC dealYou will learn the best place where we can trade oil with low risk.
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oil, cl, day trading for Mar 25th 20202Oil has been moving all over the place but has come right back to yesterdays trade range, So a balance inside a bigger balance. I will be looking for the first balance break (red zone) and then watch at the big balance area from a few days back for rejection or a confirmation of bigger picture direction.
Oil can remain in a small choppy range for some time but I think will have a big break out or down when it comes out of this balance.
Will be selective on my trades in this product right now.
cl, oil, day trading for mar 24th 2020Oil has moved up in early session and has now pull back to top of yesterday range, this is the spot i would look for a long if this market is going to move higher, the next long confirmation then is when we move above red top.
A move back into yesterday range I then can see oil moving back to the lows of yesterday and maybe further.
I personally find it hard to think oil will move up as long as OPEC is pumping as hard as they can.
cl, oil, day trading for Mar 23rd 2020Today we are again digesting some extraordinary moves and need to look at what is really happening. I am watching 20.50 as a very important lower level . I am not looking at targets today but more observation of what the activity of the day will be, the range is massive and there is plenty of room inside the range to have large trades so as long as inside this range no targets.
Everything has been very sold and a technical bounce could happen at any time