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WTI - High Probability of Continued Downtrend US Light Crude's 4-hour chart suggests a high probability that price will continue with the dominant downtrend and eventually break below recent lows. Currently trading around $67.17, crude oil has been in a persistent decline since late February, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. The chart's projected path indicates a potential corrective bounce within the blue box area (approximately $68.50-$69.50), characterized by zigzag movements that would likely form a complex correction before resuming the bearish trend. This anticipated bearish continuation targets the horizontal red support line at around $65.77, with potential for moves below this level as indicated by the downward arrow. Recent failed attempts to sustain rallies and the steep decline from the $74.00 area reinforce the bearish outlook, suggesting that any upward movements should be viewed as selling opportunities within the larger downtrend. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTIShort
by financialflagship
WTIThis chart is focused on short-term ICT analysis, showing liquidity zones, displacement, and market structure shifts. 1. Smart Money Liquidity Grab at 63.59-64.61 This is an Expected Liquidity Pool. ICT concepts suggest that institutions often engineer liquidity grabs at key support levels before reversing. The area around 64.61 is a sell-side liquidity sweep, designed to trap retail shorts before Smart Money initiates a bullish move. 2. Market Structure Shift (MSS) at 68.53 A break above 68.53 is a bullish shift, signaling a change in trend. Displacement with a fair value gap (FVG) around 68.53 confirms momentum. If price reclaims 68.53, expect Smart Money to target buy-side liquidity at 79.32 and later 91.21. 3. Buying Zone & Smart Money Accumulation (75-77 Range) Once price reaches 79.32, expect a retracement into the 75-77 range, allowing Smart Money to re-accumulate. A break above 91.21 unlocks the potential for higher moves, aligning with the higher time frame Elliott Wave 5 targets.
TVC:USOILLong
by HuntingTraps
WTI Crude (USOil) The Week Ahead 10th March '25Sentiment: Bearish INTRADAY, Price action is consolidating in a tight trading range. Resistance: Key Resistance is at 6870, followed by 6930 and 7000. Support: Key support is at 6610 followed by 6540 and 6440. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
USOIL On The Rise! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 67.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 69.38 Recommended Stop Loss - 65.59 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
WTI Oil H4 | Strong bearish momentumWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 68.46 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Stop loss is at 70.70 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 65.20 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
US Light Crude (WTI) - Buy SetupTechnical Analysis: The overall trend remains bearish, but the price has stalled at a major support level of 6568.7, corresponding to the September 2024 lows. WTI has been rangebound for several months, with the upper end of the range at 8044.3. Yesterday's Doji candle signals indecision, and today’s early move higher suggests potential upside. While speculative, the risk/reward setup appears attractive. Fundamental Analysis: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report indicates increasing long positions in Oil, suggesting that institutional investors ("Smart Money") may be accumulating around current levels. Seasonal Trends: Historically, between March 18 – May 21, Oil has delivered positive returns 76.47% of the time, with an average gain of 5.56% over the past 34 years. Trade Setup: Entry: 6630 – 6765 Stop Loss: 6462 (below the 2024 low at 6568) Target: 8044 (upper end of the long-term range) Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer Program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTILong
by Signal_Centre1
WTI OIL hit its 2-year Support. Major rebound possible.WTI Oil (USOIL) didn't fail us on our last bearish idea (February 20, see chart below), where we called the 1D MA50 rejection: The decline didn't just hit our $69.00 Target but also broke below the medium-term Channel Up and entered the 2-year Support Zone. The long-term dynamics should gradually start emerging now and the principle parameter is that every time this Support Zone gets hit, WTI starts strong medium-term rallies. Technically (even on 1W MACD terms), the decline since mid January is very similar with the one of mid April 2023. Both were produced after another Support Zone rebound and before that a long-term Channel Down (red) preceded them. As a result, we expect a strong rebound for at least the next 2 months, which (as in the case of Fractal 1) should initially target at least January's High at $80.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTILong
by TradingShot
Crude Oil Prices: Double-Edged Sword for Indian Marketers The global crude oil market, a volatile beast, dictates the energy landscape for nations worldwide.1 For India, a nation heavily reliant on oil imports, the fluctuations in crude oil prices carry significant implications.2 While a dip in crude oil prices might seem like a welcome relief, especially for consumers, it presents a complex and often challenging scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) operating within the Indian market. This seemingly beneficial drop in prices acts as a double-edged sword, bringing with it a unique set of complexities that stem from market dynamics, government policies, and the intrinsic characteristics of the oil and gas sector.3 The initial and seemingly positive impact of lower crude oil prices is the potential for reduced import costs.4 For a country like India, where a substantial portion of its energy needs are met through imports, this can lead to a decrease in the overall expenditure on crude oil. This reduction can, in turn, alleviate pressure on the nation's current account deficit and theoretically translate to lower fuel prices for consumers. However, this potential benefit is often overshadowed by the ever-present threat of government intervention through excise duty hikes. Governments, seeking to bolster their revenue, often capitalize on falling crude oil prices by increasing excise duties on petrol and diesel.5 This strategic move allows them to capture a significant portion of the savings that would otherwise be passed on to consumers. For OMCs, this translates to a reduction in the potential for increased margins. While they still benefit from reduced raw material expenses, the extent of the gain is substantially diminished. This delicate dance between market forces and government policies creates a complex environment for OMCs to navigate. Furthermore, the expectation of price cuts for end consumers becomes a significant challenge for OMCs. Consumers naturally anticipate a corresponding reduction in fuel prices when crude oil prices decline. However, OMCs must carefully balance this expectation with the need to maintain their financial health. Rapid and substantial price cuts can strain their profitability, especially when coupled with excise duty adjustments. This balancing act requires a delicate approach, as OMCs must ensure their financial stability while remaining responsive to consumer demands. Beyond the immediate impact on OMCs, lower crude oil prices pose a significant challenge to the upstream oil and gas sector. Upstream companies, involved in exploration and production, are directly affected by the decline in realized prices for their crude oil. This can lead to reduced profitability, delayed or cancelled investment projects, and even financial distress for some companies. The economic viability of many oil and gas fields is contingent on a certain price threshold. When prices fall below this level, production becomes less attractive, potentially hindering future energy security. The impact on the gas sector is particularly noteworthy. Natural gas economics are often intertwined with crude oil prices, with gas prices sometimes linked to oil price benchmarks.6 A decline in crude oil prices can thus indirectly affect gas prices, making gas production and distribution less profitable. This can have broader implications for the energy sector, as natural gas is increasingly seen as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels.7 Reduced investment in gas infrastructure and production can hinder the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix. Moreover, the volatility associated with fluctuating crude oil prices creates uncertainty for OMCs and the entire energy sector.8 Long-term planning and investment decisions become more difficult when the market is subject to rapid and unpredictable price swings. This uncertainty can deter investment in new projects and hinder the development of a stable and reliable energy supply. This volatility necessitates a robust and adaptable strategy for OMCs to navigate the unpredictable market. From a macroeconomic perspective, while lower crude prices can potentially stimulate economic activity by reducing fuel costs for businesses and consumers, the potential for reduced government revenue due to lower oil prices (if excise duties are not increased) must be considered. In a country like India, where government revenue is crucial for funding infrastructure projects and social programs, a significant decline in oil-related revenue can have far-reaching consequences. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, ensuring that government revenue remains stable while providing relief to consumers. The challenges posed by lower crude oil prices highlight the need for a balanced and nuanced approach to energy policy. Governments must strike a delicate balance between providing relief to consumers, maintaining fiscal stability, and supporting the long-term health of the oil and gas sector. This requires careful consideration of excise duty adjustments, pricing mechanisms, and investment incentives. A coherent and forward-looking energy policy is essential to navigate the complexities of the global crude oil market and ensure the nation's energy security. In conclusion, while lower crude oil prices may appear to be a boon, they present a complex set of challenges for OMCs and the broader Indian oil and gas sector. The potential for excise duty hikes, concerns about price cuts, and the impact on upstream realisations and gas economics create a double-edged sword scenario. Navigating this complex landscape requires careful policy decisions and a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics of the global energy market. OMCs must remain adaptable and resilient, while governments must implement policies that balance consumer needs with fiscal stability and long-term energy security.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by bryandowningqln
The Inevitable Descent of UKOILIn the shadow of a market that continues to revel in its own delusions, I find myself compelled to address the elephant in the room – or rather, the oil in the barrel that is UKOIL. We stand on the precipice of what I predict to be a significant correction, one that will see UKOIL prices plummeting to the region of $48 per barrel. Why the Fall? OPEC+'s decision to phase out additional output cuts by September 2025, announced in June last year, is a clear signal. The return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, should market dynamics permit, will flood an already saturated market. Despite the rhetoric of control, the reality is that OPEC+'s spare capacity, currently at 5.9 million barrels per day, limits any significant price increase. This, coupled with near-record production levels from non-OPEC countries like the United States, sets the stage for an oversupply scenario. The notion that demand will continue to grow unchecked is flawed. Global oil consumption growth is expected to slow dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, with similar levels in 2025. This deceleration is driven by multiple factors including the rise of electric vehicles, increasing efficiency in traditional vehicles, and a stuttering economic recovery in major markets like China. The market's current bullishness is more sentiment than substance. Indicators like the Stoch RSI currently at 77.9 suggest we are nearing overbought territory, a strong indication that a reversal could be imminent. This high reading, combined with the parabolic SAR signaling an upward trend now, might just be the last gasp before a significant correction. The technical and fundamental analyses converge on a bearish outlook. Long Forecast anticipates Brent oil, which closely tracks UKOIL, to hover around $60-$65 by 2026 before a potential rebound. This, combined with other forecasts suggesting a further decline in demand, paints a picture not of a soft landing, but of a sharp descent. If we extrapolate current trends and market sentiment shifts, $48 is not just a possibility but a probable near-term floor. Investors should consider reducing exposure to oil-related equities or hedge against the risk through diversification into non-correlated assets. For those with the stomach for risk, this scenario presents a unique opportunity to short UKOIL CFDs. In closing, let us not be swayed by the siren song of current market highs. The fundamentals, much like gravity, will eventually pull prices back to earth. Prepare for the storm, for it's not a matter of if, but when. Horban Brothers. Alex Kostenich
FX:UKOILShort
by horbanbrothers
CRUDE is looking weak. Price connection is expected#CRUDE #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + Crude has formed a nice descending triangle pattern and price has broken down the support line which formed over the years. + A clear breakdown from this support would push down the prices further. + Next target is 50-40$ range. --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
TVC:USOILShort
by VectorAlgo
Treasury Secretary Bessent: Make Iran broke again Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, said the U.S. is enforcing sanctions on Iran for “immediate maximum impact,” warning that Iranians should move their money out of the rial. The goal is to cut Iran’s oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to near zero. His comments came as oil prices fell to multiyear lows on Wednesday, driven by concerns that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could slow economic growth and weaken crude demand. Following Bessent’s remarks, both U.S. crude and Brent prices turned positive, with JP Morgan analysts noting that a decline in Iranian supply is currently the only bullish factor for oil prices. Bessent also signaled that the administration is prepared to impose full-scale sanctions on Russian energy if it helps lead to a ceasefire in Ukraine. This is a welcome shift from the Trump administration, who so far has only been pressuring the victim of the war rather than the perpetrator.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
USOIL Bearish Momentum - Will It Reach 64.40?TVC:USOIL has broken below a key support zone, which has now flipped to resistance, aligning with a potential bearish continuation. The recent retest of this level held successfully, indicating strong seller interest and reinforcing the bearish outlook. With momentum favoring the downside, the next logical target is 64.40, aligning with the prevailing bearish trend. As long as the price remains below the resistance zone, the bearish bias stays intact. If you have anything to add or a different perspective, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!
TVC:USOILShort
by DanieIM
8
Trump Goes "The Peacemaker", as Crude Oil Turns Gradually LowerThe notion that crude oil prices might decrease due to an abatement of the Ukraine's war not seems to be counterintuitive, as the conflict has historically led to increased oil prices due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. There are several factors that could contribute to a decrease in oil prices if tensions were to ease. Factors Contributing to Decreased Oil Prices: Easing of Sanctions on Russia: If tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine were to ease, it might lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russia, potentially allowing more Russian oil to enter the global market. This increase in supply could help reduce prices. Market Perception of Reduced Conflict: The market might perceive a decrease in conflict as a sign of reduced risk to global oil supplies, leading to lower prices. This perception could be influenced by expectations of increased oil availability from Russia and other regions. OPEC Production Increases: If OPEC decides to increase production, as it has recently done, this could add more oil to the market, further pressuring prices downward. Global Economic Concerns: Economic slowdowns or concerns about global growth can reduce demand for oil, leading to lower prices. The Ukraine conflict has contributed to economic uncertainty, and its abatement might not necessarily increase demand if global economic concerns persist. Fundamental considerations Well, in early March 2025, oil prices fell due to a combination of factors, including tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine and OPEC's decision to gradually increase output. Brent crude fell to around $71.08 per barrel, and WTI to about $68.01 per barrel. Impact of Sanctions: Despite sanctions not directly targeting Russian oil, they have affected its exports by limiting financing and causing some buyers to avoid Russian crude. Easing these sanctions could increase Russian oil exports, potentially lowering global prices. Market Dynamics: The war in Ukraine initially caused oil prices to surge due to supply concerns. However, if the conflict were to abate, market dynamics could shift, leading to decreased prices as supply risks diminish and global economic factors come into play. Post war challenge Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately lower, but crude oil tends to breakthrough a long-term 3 - to - 4 years low. Crude oil prices are under pressure as US tariff uncertainty weighs on the outlook for energy demand. Also, ramped-up Russian oil exports boost global supplies and are negative for prices. In addition, crude prices have some negative carryover from Wednesday when weekly EIA crude inventories rose more than expected to a 7-month high. Conclusion In summary, while the Ukrainian war has historically driven oil prices up due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, an easing of tensions could lead to decreased prices through increased supply, reduced market risk, and global economic factors. -- Best 'Peacemaking' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by PandorraResearch
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 6,657.4. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 6,198.3. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
Oil Prices Plummet as Trade Tensions RiseOil prices took a hit after Trump's tariffs were announced, and it's essential to understand the reasoning behind this drop. When US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated by placing tariffs on US goods, including oil. This move led to a decrease in oil demand from China, which is the world's largest oil importer. As a result, oil prices plummeted. ◉ Key Factors Behind the Decline ● Trade Tensions: The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China led to a decrease in oil demand, causing prices to drop. ● China's Tariffs on US Oil: China's decision to impose tariffs on US oil imports reduced demand for US oil, contributing to the price decline. ● Global Economic Slowdown: The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs have led to a slowdown in global economic growth, further reducing oil demand and prices. ● Increased Oil Production: The US has been increasing its oil production, leading to a surplus in the market and contributing to the decline in oil prices. ◉ Technical Observations ● A notable decline in oil prices has been observed since mid-January 2025. ● Prices are currently hovering near the critical support zone around $66, a level that has historically provided a floor for prices. ● If this support level is breached, it may trigger a further decline in oil prices.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by NaranjCapital