USOIL What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 73.75
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 76.36
My Stop Loss - 72.34
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Oil
WTI on high time frame
"Dear traders, concerning WTI, the price has touched $73 and has been technically rejected from this level. Candle formations on higher time frames suggest a potential increase in price. Considering the political and geopolitical factors outlined in this article (www.tradingview.com), if the price can hold above the $73 zone, my view is that the next target could be $76."
If you have any specific questions or need further assistance with your message, please let me know!
Energy Policy and USDWTIKey Entry Points:
Ideal Entry: $78 (Sell Position)
The $78 level was an optimal sell entry, primarily due to the declaration of emergency in the energy sector made by the new administration. This policy move is expected to increase energy production significantly. The current administration is heavily investing in the energy sector to mitigate price increases in other sectors, combat inflation, and maintain or reduce it. This macroeconomic context highlights why $78 was a strategic sell zone.
Current Entry Opportunity: $74 (Sell Position)
From a technical analysis perspective, $74 is a notable resistance level. While this level carries more risk compared to $78, it presents a viable sell opportunity due to price inefficiency beginning at this point. Observing the daily chart, we notice an efficient bearish trend with a clear price inefficiency that originated at $74. This inefficiency creates a strong resistance zone, making it a reasonable point for continuation to the downside.
Technical Analysis Across Timeframes:
Daily Chart:
The current bearish trend remains intact. The inefficiency at $74 reinforces the case for selling at this level. While not as secure as the $78 zone, it offers a good probability for a continuation to lower levels.
Weekly Chart:
The market is currently in an impulsive phase. However, no significant support or resistance zones are evident within this timeframe. This lack of structural confirmation increases the risk of entering at this level.
Monthly Chart:
The monthly chart shows a clear rejection from a downward resistance. This reinforces the bearish outlook and aligns with the target at $70.80, which represents a strong support level.
TARIFFS Will Lead To Inflation!? NOPE!So many talking heads crying TARIFFS will be inflationary,
but it’s mostly uneducated fear-mongering.
Let’s look at the cold, hard USIRYY and CPI data to figure out the truth behind this.
From March 2018 through September 2019, President Trump had eight waves of tariff announcements on C-H-I-N-A, plus some steel and aluminum ones on Mexico and Canada.
In order to combat these inflation worries, Trump did what he said he was going to do…
DRILL BABY DRILL.
For the first time since 1949, the US would be a net exporter of oil.
We can see there was a quick spike in inflation from stockpiling imports before tariffs were fully implemented, but inflation quickly plummeted nearly in half as the US became a net exporter.
Fast-forward to today, and coincidentally inflation is at 2.9% which is right around where it was when Trump imposed the tariffs during his last presidency. Funny how that works out, eh ;)
Trump has declared the US will DRILL BABY DRILL bigger than ever, which should lead us to believe that this time is NOT different and inflation will go down again.
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 2-7thThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 2-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices were not easy to trade last week, as there were plenty of fundamentals at play. However, they are relatively still strong, and I am looking for further gains next week.
NFP week, imo, is best traded Mon-Wed. Thurs will likely see consolidation until the NFP news announcement Friday morning. I will look to fade the news release on Friday for NY Session.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, DXY & Nasdaq for Feb 1 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
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WTI - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 64.000, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 80.100 breaks.
If the support at 64.000 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.510 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.446, 77.920 and maximum to Major Resistance (80.100) is expected.
Take Profits:
75.446
77.920
80.100
83.961
87.000
93.882
100.802
109.192
126.350
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Will Oil jump against Trump's requests?On a technical perspective, Oil could reverse from the current price and start to climb again targeting buyside, as we have seen a divergence between Brent and WTI. However, it looks like Brent is weaker and might not be able to validate higher prices.
Next week's OPEC meeting could clarify the direction, as I do not believe they will succumb to President Trump's requests of lowering Oil prices massively, and we could be looking for a volatile month.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
WTI CRUDE OIL: Bullish dirgence on 4H RSI points to $85.00WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.798, MACD = 0.400, ADX = 43.927) as it hit the 1D MA50 and so far it is holding it. The correction of the past 2 weeks has been significant but the 4H RSI is posting a bullish divergence on HL and we might be technically having a bottom like February 27th. We anticipate an identical +18% rise (TP = 85.00).
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USOIL Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 72.49.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 74.21 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USOIL, might be preparing for a nother large move.USOIL / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
The market is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key minor resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for the price to show more strength first then for the pullback into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
Trade safe,
Trader Leo
WTI Oil H4 | Bearish downtrend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 73.99 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 75.55 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 71.31 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Potential bearish drop?USO/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 75.01
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 76.18
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 72.94
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher within its range-bound market. On the daily chart, it faced resistance near the gap created on January 27. Even if the index continues to rise, it is likely to encounter strong resistance near the January 24 closing price of 21,911. Keep in mind the principle that gaps tend to get filled and that they often act as strong support or resistance levels once filled.
Since the MACD is still maintaining a buy signal on the daily chart, it is advantageous to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy. The recent move appears to be driven by dollar weakness, and similar to gold's strong rally yesterday, Nasdaq could also experience an additional upward rally. Therefore, short positions should be taken at the highest possible levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the zero line and is now pulling the signal line upward as well. If the index continues to rise and fills the gap, both the MACD and signal line will be above the zero line, and after consolidating at the gap resistance level, the next directional movement will likely be determined. It is best to focus on buying on dips while setting strict stop-loss levels for any short positions above the gap. Proper risk management is key.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed nearly flat but showed a meaningful breakout from the downward channel on the shorter time frames. It also created a gap-up on the daily chart and broke above the 5-day moving average. Previously, oil had been declining due to Trump's announcement regarding increased oil drilling, but this news is largely priced in now, making a technical rebound possible.
The key level to watch on the upside is $74.50, while buying opportunities exist below $73, with a stop-loss at $72.
On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence has formed at the bottom, leading to another buy signal. Since the price appears to be building a base, additional buying momentum could emerge. While the market is still range-bound, a buy-on-dip strategy remains favorable for now.
Gold
Gold surged to new all-time highs and closed with strong gains. The rally was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s tariff imposition, boosting gold prices significantly. As mentioned yesterday, the MACD turned upward again, leading to another sharp rally on the daily chart.
Since gold strongly broke out of its previous range with a large bullish candlestick, today is a buy-on-dip day, particularly near the 3-day moving average. If the price retraces in the pre-market session, it could dip toward the 3-day moving average, so traders should be mindful of this possibility. However, if gold maintains its strength and closes with another bullish candlestick, the 3-day moving average will move higher, reinforcing the uptrend.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have diverged significantly, reflecting the strong uptrend. Buying on dips remains effective, while selling should be avoided since RSI indicates overbought conditions. As gold's volatility is increasing, traders should consider adjusting contract sizes, using micro contracts, or lowering leverage to allow for wider stop-loss levels and better trade management.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21680 / 21630 / 21580 / 21530 / 21465
-Sell Levels: 21770 / 21845 / 21890 / 22010 / 22055
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.40
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.10 / 74.50 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2845 / 2840 / 2831 / 2824
-Sell Levels: 2860 / 2866 / 2870
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Finally some higher highs again. Market could now transition into a wider trading range and 70 - 76 is my rough guess for now. Bulls need to keep the tiny bit momentum going tomorrow and break above the bear channel and trade above 74 again. If bears dip it below 72.6, we could very well print a lower low below 72 and the range might also expand to the downside.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 76
bull case: Bulls made the first higher high again and need follow-through badly. Above 74 the bear trend is for sure over and a trading range is most likely. Good for the bulls is, that on the daily chart we are still trading above the breakout price which was roughly 70. If they can reverse this strongly, they have a chance of retesting the highs over the next weeks. For now I think they have to be content with staying above 72 and maybe get to 74 again.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears want to keep the market below the daily 20ema and prevent bulls from making meaningful higher highs above 74. The bear channel is still valid and on the daily chart the past 3 trading days look like a weak two-legged pullback to the moving average and that is usually a very good buy/sell signal in the direction of the trend. Bears want to print a new low below 72 and then testing 70.
Invalidation is above 74.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 74 and bearish below 72.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying below 72.4 was good since Monday.
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously falling on the 9H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 76.57 because the pair is oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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WTI OIL on a Bearish Leg but short-term rebound expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern that is unfolding its latest Bearish Leg. This Leg just hit the Higher Lows trend-line from the last bottom, which is so far no different than what took place during the previous Bearish Leg on October 18 2024.
The 4H MACD sequences among the two fractals are very similar so, as the October price action did, we expect a marginal breach of the Higher Lows followed by an instant rebound above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result our short-term Target is $74.80.
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