USOIL: Market Is Looking Down! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 68.336
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Oil
USOIL: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the USOIL pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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USOIL Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 68.33.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 71.84 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Crude oil demand concerns in focus with key Chinese data on tapCrude oil is now up for the third day after finding strong support around the $65 area. Now near $70, could it resume lower from here?
It is important that that blue shaded area around 68.80-69.00 now holds as support if prices dip, otherwise we may see the bears step in on oil again.
From a macro point of view, demand concerns continue to linger. Unless we see some improvement in data to suggest that crude oil demand is going to be stronger, or supply growth is going to be weaker, this recovery we have seen should be taken with a pinch of salt. It is likely that prices have found support this week amid short-side profit taking and on the back of weaker US dollar, with hurricane disruptions further encouraging dip-buyers. But weakness in China’s economy is a major concern, which puts the weekend’s release of industrial data from the world’s second largest economy into focus. In the week ahead, crude oil traders will be watching the big central bank rate decisions, especially that of the Fed on Wednesday. If the FOMC’s economic projections in the dot plots point to weakness in growth, then that could trigger a fresh wave of selling.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analysts with FOREX.com
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
currently prices trading above turning level at 78.74 , overall under bullish pressure.
In order for the price to reach 71.59, it first needs to establish a period of stabilization above two critical levels: 68.74 and 69.98. These levels act as key support zones, signaling strength in the market if maintained. Once stability is confirmed above 69.98, upward momentum is expected to build, pushing the price toward 71.59. If this bullish trend continues, the price may extend further, reaching the next target at 74.24.
However, if the price fails to hold above 68.74, it indicates weakening bullish momentum, and the market may shift towards a downtrend. In this scenario, breaking the turning level at 68.74 could trigger a decline toward 65.35. A more pronounced drop could push the price even lower if this support level is breached.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74
Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price RecoversMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Recovers
Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $70.25 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $67.00 support.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price found support near the $64.75 zone against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $66.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The bulls were able to push the price toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.27 swing high to the $64.74 swing low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00.
The hourly RSI is near the 65 level, but the price is struggling near $69.00, and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.27 swing high to the $64.74 swing low.
The next resistance is near the $70.25 level. A clear move above the $70.25 could send the price toward the $71.50 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.40 level. Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from the $69.00 resistance.
Immediate support sits near the $68.15 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $67.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.05. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $64.75 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL / TRADING SENSITIVE AREA - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
In the last chart as mentioned rising and reached +100 pip profit.
Currently, prices are trading above 68.74. As long as they remain and stabilize above this level, a rise toward 69.98 is expected. To confirm an uptrend, prices need to break above 69.98, potentially reaching 71.59. On the downside,
if prices stabilize below 68.74, a decline toward 65.35 is anticipated, and if they fall further below this level, they could reach 63.67.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74
USOIL BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL is trending down which is clear from the red colour of the previous weekly candle. However, the price has locally surged into the overbought territory. Which can be told from its proximity to the BB upper band. Which presents a beautiful trend following opportunity for a short trade from the resistance line above towards the demand level of 66.69.
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USOIL D1 Analysis - Bearish Pair Name = USOIL
Timeframe = D1
Analysis = technical + fundamentals
Trend = Bearish
Pattern = Symmetrical Triangle
Details:-
USOIL will keep following the bearish trend. Currently Facing a good Support. From this support level USOIL will Stay here for Few More day. It will Move Between the level 65 to 70. But when breakout confirm Price will hit 55 to 57 price level
WTI CRUDE OIL: Best buy opportunity in more than a year.WTI Crude Oil is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.459, MACD = -2.670, ADX = 29.899) and coupled with the the price breaching inside the S1 Zone, the market is giving the best long term buy opportunity in more than 1 year. The S1 Zone is in place since March 15th 2023. Additionally, the 1D RSI has made a Double Bottom (DB), which has a 100% success record out of 3 times since March 2023. Every rebound to the LH trendline (pattern is a long Descending Triangle) approached the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Our TP = 78.00.
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USOIL: Quick Buy Opportunity After Weekly Support BreakUSOIL has broken through a significant weekly green line support, presenting a potential buy opportunity for a quick retest of the previously broken zone. Watch for price action around this area to gauge the strength of any potential bounce or continuation.
Interested in how this setup unfolds? Drop a comment and follow for more trade ideas and updates!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!
USOIL / TRADING ABOVE SUPPORT LEVEL - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The First Scenario , The support level at 65.35 acts as a critical threshold; as long as prices remain above it, buyers dominate, pushing the price towards 68.74 and then 69.98. This rise reflects increased confidence in an uptrend. For the trend to be fully confirmed, prices must stabilize above 69.98, signaling sustained momentum, which could lead to a further increase to 71.59.
The Second Scenario , if the price breaks below 65.35 and stabilizes, it indicates a shift in market sentiment, with sellers gaining control and potentially driving the price down to 63.35, followed by 62.65 This technical analysis underscores the importance of price levels in predicting future market movements and investor behavior.
UPWARD TARGET :
68.74 , 69.98 , 71.59 .
DOWNWARD TARGET :
63.35 , 62.65 .
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 68.80 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 71.65 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 65.24 which is a swing-low support.
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Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall.
The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend.
This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal.
Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower.
We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support.
XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in.
Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
Natural Gas turning bullish? Natural gas has now cleared a major resistance zone and is looking poised to head higher.
We have a beautiful daily and potential weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern developing.
The micro daily chart bullish pattern has triggered and gives us another +8-10% of upside.
However the really juicy pattern is the potential weekly chart set up.
If we breakout of the $2.90-$3 range we have a massive potential move to the upside brewing.
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength.
comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 63 - 71
bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68.
Invalidation is below 64.7.
bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area.
Invalidation is above 68.8.
short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7.
medium-long term: Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
WTI OIL📊 #XTIUSD
⏱ TIME: 1w
📝The price has dropped a lot, there is an important range ahead, $63 (blue box), it seems that it can have an upward movement from this range.
⭕️risk: high
📍buyzone: 64.30 - 62.11$
📌TP1: 72 $
📌TP2: 77 $
⛔️: If this range is lost, the analysis will fail and I will update the analysis
USOIL / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
USOIL is currently trading above the turning level of 67.09 and remains above the support trendline, indicating upward momentum. There are two potential scenarios:
The First Scenario , USOIL's trading above 67.09 and staying above the support trendline signals strong buying interest, which suggests upward pressure. The target of 69.98 is a logical resistance level, followed by 71.59, which marks the next significant zone. Stabilization above 71.59 and 72.20 would confirm the strength of the uptrend, as breaking these levels would show that demand is outpacing supply, leading to further price gains.
The Second Scenario , If USOIL fails to maintain the 67.09 level and closes below it on a 1-hour or 4-hour chart, it indicates bearish momentum. This would increase the likelihood of a decline toward 65.35 and 63.67, the next significant support levels. A break below 65.35 could trigger a stronger downtrend as it would suggest sellers are gaining control, particularly if the price falls below the descending channel, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 67.09.
Resistance Levels : 69.98 , 71.59.
Support Levels : 65.35 , 63.67.
"USOIL is going downward"The weakening labor market has reduced risk appetite in the markets, triggering a drop in crude oil prices toward the 67.50 level. Additionally, OPEC+'s crude oil production in August decreased by 300,000 barrels due to declines in Libya and Kazakhstan. However, ongoing supply concerns continue to pressure the commodity.
Technically, if the 67.50 support level is broken, further declines toward 65.55 and 63.55 are possible. On the upside, if the 70.0 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 72.60 and 74.50 resistance levels.