WTI OIL giving a buy signal under this condition.Last week we saw how WTI Oil (USOIL) turned bearish long-term following the 1W Death Cross and the breaking below the 16-month Higher Lows trend-line. Even on the 1D time-frame we got a Death Cross formation with the price seemingly reaching the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of a newly formed Channel Down.
As a result we may have a short-term buy signal but only if today's 1D candle closes in green, which together with yesterday will make it a series of green days. As you can see on the chart, every time the 1D RSI posted a Bullish Divergence (rising while Oil was falling), it posted successive 1D green candles to confirm a rebound.
So the key now is to form again a streak (even 2) of green days. If not, the buy potential is invalidated. If successful though, we will target 78.00 (top of the Channel Down, +16.55% rise as the previous Bullish Leg).
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Oil
Bears wade into crude oil futures: CL1!An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Durian prices fall on concerns over Tropical Storm FrancineUSOIL: Oil prices in today's session have appeared a reversal candlestick pattern on the H4 frame. The $68 area is also a good support area for Oil prices, so you can consider buying USOIL around this price area. The short-term target can be expected to return to the $71 area.
Oil charges persisted to fall on Wednesday on worries that a typhoon anticipated to hit Louisiana on Wednesday will disrupt manufacturing and refining alongside the U.S. Gulf Coast.
In the United States, oil and fueloline manufacturers alongside the Gulf Coast have all started evacuating team of workers and proscribing drilling operations in education for Tropical Storm Francine because it movements throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecasts Francine will give a boost to right into a typhoon on Tuesday earlier than hitting the Louisiana coast. The Gulf Coast bills for approximately 50% of the country`s refining capacity, in step with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
"Prices are seeing a moderate recovery... at the caution of a typhoon that would threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, however the broader dialogue stays centered on call for and what OPEC+ can do," stated John Evans, an analyst at PVM.
OPEC+ consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies together with Russia.
In OPEC member Libya, the country's National Oil Corporation has declared pressure majeure on a few crude oil cargoes being loaded from the port of Es Sider, as oil output is confined via way of means of a political dispute over the significant financial institution and oil revenues.
The OPEC+ organization of oil manufacturers has agreed to put off a deliberate 180,000 bpd manufacturing boom in October for 2 months in reaction to the pointy drop in crude charges.
Analysts stated investor optimism approximately a gentle touchdown state of affairs for americaA economy, wherein inflation is contained with out a recession or sharp upward push in unemployment, additionally helped aid crude charges. The US authorities is scheduled to launch a key inflation document later this week.
"A recession withinside the US isn't inevitable, however the Federal Reserve wishes to begin reducing hobby costs speedy and aggressively to keep away from it," stated James Knightley, leader worldwide economist at ING.
USOIL / TRADING BELOW SUPPLY ZONE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Prices are currently on a downward trajectory, trading below the identified supply zone at approximately 70.04 and 69.21. The market is now approaching the support level at 67.27. There is a possibility of a brief retest of the supply zone before the price continues its decline towards the next support levels, which are around 66.87 and 65.58.
Conversely, if the price manages to break above the resistance level at 70.04, this would suggest a potential upward movement. In this case, the next target would be the resistance level at 71.54. For a confirmed upward trend, the price would need to break and maintain stability above 71.54. Achieving this could lead to further gains, with the next resistance target being around 74.03.
KEY LEVELS :
Supply Zone: 70.04 , 69.21 .
Resistance Levels : 71.54 , 74.03 .
Support Levels : 67.27 , 66.87, 65.58 .
WTI continues to be under pressure, notable data this weekTVC:USOIL remains under pressure, after data showed weaker-than-expected US employment data in August, which was mixed with support from OPEC+ oil producers delaying supply increases.
US government data showed job growth in August was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not need to cut interest rates very significant this month.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, less than expected to increase by 160,000. (July's increase was revised down to 89,000, the smallest increase since December 2020).
As for the geopolitical situation, as the Israeli army battles Hamas-led rebels in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, medics said on Saturday that Israel's military assault on Gaza has killed at least at least 61 people in 48 hours.
The warring parties continue to blame each other for the failure of mediators including Qatar, Egypt and the US to broker a ceasefire. The United States is preparing to present a new proposal, but the prospects for a breakthrough appear slim as the differences between the two sides remain wide.
In general, there are still no notable new points regarding the geopolitical situation, so it will have less impact on the market than before.
This week will release OPEC's monthly crude oil market report, EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report and IEA's monthly crude oil market report, which are the focus of the US oil market. this week and the market will pay special attention to them.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL still in a downtrend with technical conditions leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease.
First, the long-term technical trend of WTI crude oil will be noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
Although WTI crude oil stopped falling after reaching the 1% trend-following Fibonacci extension that readers noticed in the previous issue, this is not a trending support so once WTI crude oil Breaking below the 66.96USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci will condition the price to continue falling. The next target level of WTI crude oil will be noticed at 64.55 – 63.66USD.
As long as WTI crude oil remains in the price channel and below the EMA21, it still has a main bearish trend with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 66.96 – 64.55 – 63.66USD
Resistance: 68.84 – 69.77USD
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 70.30 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 72.56 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 67.14 which is a swing-low support level.
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#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76.
comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 60-72
bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema.
Invalidation is above 70.32
outlook last week:
short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73.
short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait.
medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
USOIL - at his most expensive region ? holding or not??#USOIL - perfect move as per our last couple of ideas.
now market at his one of the most expensive region of month that is around 66.30 to 67.20
keep close that region because if market hold it then you can see a bounce from here otherwise below that you will see a smooth drop towards his next supporting areas.
dont be lazy here.
good luck
trade wisely
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CRUDE OIL Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL keeps falling
And Oil is locally oversold
So as it is retesting a strong
Horizontal support level of 66.74$
I will be expecting a local bullish correction
Buy!
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USOIL What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USOIL is below:
The market is trading on 68.08 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 70.57
Recommended Stop Loss - 66.61
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI Poised for a Rally? Key Support Hold Could Send Prices SkywaThe chart indicates that WTI is approaching a critical support zone between $67.60 and $69.40, a level previously tested and held.
After forming a consolidation pattern, the price is likely to break upward, heading toward the next resistance at $72.50 and potentially extending to $76.00 if momentum builds.
A bullish move would be supported by the price remaining above the $69.40 area, indicating strong demand at these levels.
However, if this support breaks, there could be a further downward move towards $67.60.
The target zones to watch on the upside are $72.50 and $76.00, with significant resistance around those levels.
USOIL BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is trading in a local downtrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 1D timeframe the pair is going down too. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 78.60 area.
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CRUDE OIL SWING LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is about to retest a key structure level of 66.94$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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USOIL: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
USOIL
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long USOIL
Entry Point - 68.08
Stop Loss - 66.47
Take Profit - 71.28
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet.
True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Front Month Premium - Bullish
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
USOIL: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 68.90
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!