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Oilanalysis

Crude oil is focusing on support near 80, how to trade today? The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) fluctuated and hit new lows, testing the 80 support. The moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend is downward. Oil prices hit around 80.70, forming a certain recurrence, and their upward strength is relatively weak. It is expected that crude oil will remain volatile in the short term during the day. Trading strategy: 81.60 short, stop loss: 81.90, target 80.60.Trading strategies are for reference only
TVC:USOILShort
by Donald-king
How will U.S. oil trade after the Federal Reserve decision?U.S. oil continued to fluctuate and repaired yesterday. The bullish EIA data in the evening failed to bring rebound momentum to U.S. oil. On the contrary, the market retreated to around the 80.8 line in response to technical needs before rebounding. Of course, this period was also affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. , in the end, US oil still closed with a negative line. If U.S. oil falls back to the 81-80.7 area today and tomorrow, you can be aggressive and light up your position. If you have long positions at this level overnight, you can still keep it. However, you can reduce your position as appropriate when the pressure is measured near 82 at the top during the day.
TVC:USOILLong
by Donald-king
Can U.S. oil continue to be bullish? How to trade?The release of U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision may bring external interference to the trend, so U.S. oil needs to be careful in the short term. The bullish tone at the daily level has been locked in. A firm hold at 80 will lay the foundation for medium and long-term bullishness. As long as there are no major negative fundamentals in the future, it is worth looking forward to the medium and long-term bullishness of the 84-85 area and even the 90 area for U.S. oil. In the day, U.S. oil can see a temporary pressure correction on the 83 line, but don’t expect too much in the repair space below. You can focus on the 5-day line around 81.7-5. If the data tonight is negative, the short-term retracement target can be lowered. Moving to the 81-80.5 area, the main line of thinking is still bullish on US oil, so whenever a retracement is seen, we should still consider choosing lows to place long orders, provided that 80 cannot be broken. In addition, due to the frequent incidents affecting U.S. oil-related fundamentals from tonight to early tomorrow morning, conservatives can choose to wait and see and make relevant strategic adjustments after the fundamentals stabilize tomorrow. If you participate in radical activities during the day, you must also wait for the extreme point before participating, and you must make adjustments closely following fundamental events. Do not make judgments based solely on technical expectations.
TVC:USOILLong
by Donald-king
Quick look at Oil, Gold & Dollar IndexI'm closely monitoring the oil market, adopting a cautious stance as I await a compelling catalyst to drive oil prices upward. A potential factor on my radar is the increasing involvement of the UK and the US in the tensions between Israel and Palestine. If this geopolitical situation intensifies and draws in Iran to support Palestine, it could contribute to a surge in oil prices. Shifting the focus to gold, my outlook is optimistic for a bullish trend in 2024. Historically, gold tends to perform well in the first quarter of the year, and I anticipate a positive trajectory for the precious metal. On the currency front, my analysis suggests a bearish trajectory for the US dollar index throughout 2024, potentially reaching 0.96 by the year-end. This projection reflects a cautious stance on the strength of the US dollar in the coming months.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by ManilaFXTrading
WTI H2 / RETRACEMENT FROM THE OB, SHORT TRADE OPPORTUNITY 📉🛢Hello Traders! As expected, we can see a retracement of the OIL H2 from the resistance level, and also, from the OB at the price of 74.900. I see this retracement as a good signal of bearish domination, representing a good opportunity to execute a short trade. Treaders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by GoodTradeST
3
Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Divisions within OPEC have caused WTI crude to fall below $74 per barrel, ending a three-day climb for the commodity. Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, said it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This move raised concerns about OPEC's capacity to stabilize global prices, particularly amid disagreements over oil production quotas. However, operational challenges in Angola have hampered the country's ability to reach its sanctioned daily output of 1.5 million barrels; so maybe its departure is not hugely damaging to OPEC’s control, and the market is overreacting to the wrong thing here. Maybe, a more pressing issue could be the surging production in the United States. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration revealed a record-breaking daily output of 13.3 million barrels last week. For one, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the average oil price next year, reducing it by 12% due to ample production in the United States. In a note released last Sunday, Goldman revised its estimate, projecting an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, down from the previous estimate of $92 per barrel. Goldman Sachs anticipates it to reach its peak at $85 per barrel in June. Meanwhile, Citigroup offers a more cautious outlook by forecasting an average 2024 oil price of $75. This stands as the lowest projection among the major U.S. banks
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil Market Volatility due to Shipping Disruptions in the Red SeaIt has come to our attention that several shipping companies have temporarily halted their operations in the Red Sea, leading to a slight disruption in the transportation of oil. As you are aware, the Red Sea is a crucial shipping route for oil tankers, connecting major oil-producing regions to global markets. Any disruption in this route can have far-reaching implications, causing ripple effects throughout the oil market. The current situation demands cautious consideration of our trading strategies, particularly regarding long oil positions. While the exact reasons behind the shipping companies' decision to temporarily halt their operations in the Red Sea remain undisclosed, it is imperative that we closely monitor the situation and assess its potential impact on oil prices. The reduced availability of shipping routes may result in increased transportation costs, delays in deliveries, and potential supply constraints. These factors can contribute to short-term volatility and uncertainty in the oil market. In light of this development, I encourage you to exercise caution when considering long oil positions. It is crucial to stay informed about the latest updates regarding the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and their potential implications on oil supply and demand dynamics. We can better navigate the market and make informed trading decisions by remaining vigilant and responsive to these changes. To stay updated, I recommend closely monitoring reputable news sources, industry reports, and official statements from shipping companies and relevant authorities. Additionally, engaging in discussions with fellow traders and industry experts can provide valuable insights and perspectives. As always, I would like to emphasize the importance of conducting thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. While volatility can present opportunities, it also carries risks that need to be carefully evaluated. By maintaining a cautious approach and considering the potential consequences of the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, we can mitigate potential losses and capitalize on favorable market conditions. Should you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate to reach out to me via comment.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? BP has suspended all oil and gas shipments through the Red Sea due to a rise in attacks on cargo ships and a deteriorating security situation attributed to Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen. This move has caused a 2% surge in oil prices, pushing WTI crude futures to $72.5 per barrel. This development signals the first indication of a spill-over effect in Israel-Palestine tensions that could impact global supply chains in 2024. Some shipping companies are now avoiding the Red Sea/Suez Canal, choosing to navigate around Africa instead. This shift will likely contribute to increased supply costs and delays in the coming weeks. There is a possibility of the U.S. military intervening to ensure the critical shipping route remains open. However, reports also suggest a potential near-term peace agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which could eliminate the need for U.S. intervention. Despite these uncertainties, the current abundance of oil supply might be constraining upward pressure on prices. The recent price increase could be attributed more to short covering, as money managers have consistently reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the eleventh consecutive week, as reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently making an effort to secure a closure above the $72.5 threshold, and beyond that, it aims for the $73.5 level, where the 20-day Moving Average is situated. The subsequent resistance lies at a significant psychological milestone of $75. The geopolitical situation holds a crucial role. If tensions persist, there is a possibility of breaching the current levels and a subsequent upward movement toward the $80 benchmark.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Are OPEC+ voluntary cuts enough to support oil prices?After the latest OPEC+ meeting, the price of WTI crude oil dropped more than 2% to $75 per barrel, ending a two-day win streak. During the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production early next year by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision was spurred by worries about having too much oil in the market coinciding with the end of Saudi Arabia's voluntary 1 million bpd cut. Saudi Arabia said it would continue its cut until at least the first quarter of 2024. Russia also extended its cut to 500,000 bpd for the first quarter. Iraq agreed to reduce output by 211,000 bpd, and UAE pledged to cut 160,000 bpd in the first quarter. However, OPEC+ also invited Brazil to join the group. Brazil said they plan to join in January and increase their daily oil output to 3.8 million barrels, countering the other members pledges to cut production and support prices.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull_Markets
7 Dimension Analysis For OIL🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - Monthly Bullish Structure, Weekly Bearish Inducement Overview: The monthly market structure maintains a bullish stance, holding key supports. On the weekly chart, a valid low was established, accompanied by a strong bearish inducement. While a demand flip occurred, the overall trend remains bearish, marked by a record session count and inside candle price action. The daily time frame reveals a bearish swing structure with impulsive moves, indicating potential further downside. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: Daily 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish 🟢 Structure Behavior: ChoCh 🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive 🟢 Inducement: Suggests potential further downward movement. 🟢 Pull Back: No significant pullback observed. 🟢 Resistance Zones: Market encounters resistance at every supply zone post- ChoCh, forming a bearish build-up, indicating potential future downside. No traps observed. 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Continuation Symmetric Triangle Shakeout Continuation 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Notable Observations: Momentum candles with Fake out/FOMO. Tweezer at the internal move top. Inside candles in the last three days. 3️⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the beginning of the move. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI: 🟢 RSI Below 40: Indicates a super bearish zone with high selling pressure. 🟢 Range Shift: Shifted sideways to bearish, suggesting ongoing bearish activity. 🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence present. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 Middle Band Resistance: Strong rejection observed. 🟢 Head fake: At the top of the move, indicating a potential deep bearish move. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish ☑️ Current Move: Impulsive Bearish ✔ Support Resistance Base: Takes resistance at a significant level. ☑️ Candles Behavior: Extremely volatile bearish momentum. ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed. ☑️ Final Comments: Sell at the open. 💡 Decision: Sell 🚀 Entry: 75.22 ✋ Stop Loss: 78.04 🎯 Take Profit: 68.07, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5 🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days SUMMARY: The analysis reveals a monthly bullish structure but a weekly bearish inducement. The daily swing structure is bearish with an ongoing impulsive bearish move. Recognized patterns include a symmetric triangle and shakeout continuation. Critical levels, candle patterns, and trendline breakouts were considered for the entry decision. The suggestion is to sell at the open, with detailed entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, presenting a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5, and an expected duration of 7 days.
TVC:USOILShort
by Optimum369
WTI Price Stability Around $75 Amid OPEC+ Cut ExpectationsWestern Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude oil, is currently trading near $75.05 as of Tuesday. WTI prices show modest gains, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will extend oil production cuts in the upcoming Thursday meeting. Amid the recent oil price slump, analysts predict that OPEC+ might consider extending or deepening production cuts into the next year. Saudi Arabia, the world's major oil exporter, is expected to prolong its supply cuts by an additional 1 million barrels per day into the next year, while Russia may contemplate further supply reductions of 300,000 barrels per day. If OPEC+ decides on deeper production cuts next year, it could restrain the downward momentum of WTI prices. Furthermore, China is set to release National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. Better-than-expected data might uplift WTI prices, considering China's significant role as the world's leading producer and consumer of oil. On the flip side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a mild surplus in crude oil production by 2024, even with OPEC+ extending cuts into the following year. Additionally, robust production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. could contribute to price pressure. Traders in the oil market will closely monitor U.S. growth figures on Wednesday, with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 expected to rise by 5%, up from the previous 4.9%. On Thursday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and China's NBS PMI data will be announced. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will be crucial for oil traders, as these events could significantly impact WTI prices in USD. Oil traders will interpret signals from the data and explore trading opportunities around WTI prices.
TVC:USOIL
by oraleeogwynn1725