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Oilanalysis

Oil Rebounds Despite Weak Demand, OPEC's Optimism DimsOil prices are rebounding following a recent dip, sparked by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) announcement earlier this week, contrasting events from Monday. Monday's decline was largely influenced by the OPEC+ monthly report, hinting at potential price increases. However, sustained crude oil recovery requires further momentum, with a significant catalyst expected by the end of November when OPEC+ convenes to forecast the first half of 2024, potentially indicating further supply cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) is weakening as recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports show declines across all segments, both Core and Headline. This convinces traders that the Fed has likely completed interest rate hikes and may even prioritize faster rate cuts. The higher crude oil prices in response to this reversal, combined with a weaker U.S. Dollar, are driving up black gold prices. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil is trading at $78.33 per barrel, and Brent crude is at $82.87 per barrel.
TVC:USOIL
by Larissa-Trader
1
Crude oil review of last week and analysis of this week This week, crude oil received support at 74.9 and the overall rebound rebounded. The week ended with an overall decline of 4.18%, and finally closed at $77.40. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continued fluctuation of crude oil prices this week are as follows: 1. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Russia will not give up its plan to increase liquefied natural gas production to 100 million tons per year because of US sanctions. 2. Three fuel producers said Russia will completely lift its ban on diesel and gasoline exports next week, sources said 3. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: The West’s green transformation has triggered a crisis in the global oil and natural gas market. Sanctions imposed on Russian oil have had a huge impact on global energy markets, causing costs to rise. Damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline means Europe will no longer have access to cheap fuel. 4. After the United States eased sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA is negotiating with local and foreign oilfield companies to rent equipment and services to enable it to restore sluggish production; 5. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Before the end of December 2023, Russia will continue to voluntarily cut its oil supply and petroleum product exports by 300,000 barrels per day. The voluntary production reduction decision will be reviewed next month to consider further production cuts or increases in oil production; The above factors are responsible for the continued complex and volatile trend of crude oil this week. Overall, it is the promotion of various factors that has caused the price adjustment. It has brought about chain reactions in some markets, and crude oil supply problems have led to changes in crude oil prices; In terms of news, next week’s regular data API and EIA’s overall expectations are still more likely to be small and bullish. Due to the EIA system upgrade, the EIA will release two crude oil inventory reports at 23:30 on November 15 (including those not announced last week). (one copy), due to the current tense geopolitical environment, the overall probability is still small and bullish, and of course the possibility of repairs on both sides is not ruled out. In addition, we need to focus on the release of OPEC's monthly crude oil market report (the specific release time of the monthly report is to be determined, usually around 18-21 o'clock on November 13, Beijing time). The follow-up of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will affect the trend of the energy market. Keep an eye on this; The IEA releases its monthly crude oil market report. Fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. OPEC+ supply in October was higher than expected. The actual export volume of oil-producing countries increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day. In addition, Russian oil exports rose to a nearly four-month high, with average daily oil exports of nearly 3.48 million barrels; in its monthly forecast, EIA lowered the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2023 by 300,000 barrels per day. Inventories have increased significantly. In the week ending November 3, crude oil inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 980,000 barrels. The marginal demand for crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that supply and demand will develop from a tight balance in the third quarter to a balanced supply and demand in the fourth quarter, putting crude oil prices under pressure. On the macro front, non-farm payrolls data have lowered U.S. economic growth expectations, and Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish recently. If the focus of late trading returns to the U.S. economy, which is expected to enter recession, it may suppress crude oil prices. Overall, the fundamental margin has become looser, inventories have increased more than expected, and price weakness may continue. From a technical point of view, this time it has continued to fluctuate and bearish since it opened high on the 20th, and this week has made a low, and the latest will be next Monday's low. After that, the overall trend will continue to be bullish until the 1st or 5th, so next week From the beginning, if 74.9 does not break below, the overall trend is to continue to be bullish, and what we need to do is to close the short and add long ideas next week. The previous judgment was to be bearish to about 74, and the target has been achieved now. From a structural point of view, it is a good choice to see the current rebound to about 82, so in the later period, all short positions below 83 will be closed and harvested. U-turn is mainly bullish. Later development will be further judged. More based on the intraday strategy,
TVC:USOILLong
by Krause_Philipp
Crude Oil Thursday Trading Signals Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that yesterday’s market rose first and then fell again in the evening and hit a new low at 80.30 below, stopping the decline and rebounding. We can clearly see from the attached picture below that there was a bottom-buying signal from a small institution below yesterday. It rebounded as expected. In early trading today, a low-priced signal from small institutions appeared again in the market. It is expected that it will continue to rebound. In the short term, we will focus on the pressure of moving averages No. 1 and 2, but we do not rule out further declines to the bottom during the session. The position of the No. 3 moving average is where we continue to think high, low and long. The specific suggestions are as follows: sell 82-81.8 tp80 buy 79.5-80 tp 81.6
TVC:USOILShort
by Krause_Philipp
Crude oil Wednesday strategy On Tuesday (October 31), under a series of negative impacts, WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% and broke through the key support of $82.00, indicating that the rise of WTI crude oil since the beginning of May is facing an end, and at the same time, downward space may be opened. Looking at the daily chart of crude oil, oil prices have stopped rising at a high of 95 and entered a correction state. Oil prices have experienced a two-week decline and adjustment. Oil prices have crossed below the moving average system, and the objective trend has entered sideways consolidation. The original flag-shaped relay pattern has been destroyed. Under the uncertain war and conflict, oil prices continue to reverse upward. The current mid-term trend of crude oil has entered a high-level consolidation pattern. If the situation escalates, it is not ruled out to review the rise again. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued its volatile downward trend and hit a new low of 81.40. The moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend remains downward. In early trading, oil prices adjusted weakly near the lows, and short-term momentum prevailed. Pay attention to the resistance of the yellow downward trend line on oil prices in the chart. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline in the short term during the day. interval category. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline during the day and test the support position at the lower edge of the 81.70 weekly chart range. Trading signals: sell82.50 sl84.00, tp80.70. For more analysis, please join me
TVC:USOILShort
by Krause_Philipp
Crude oil trading strategy for Tuesday Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that yesterday's market surged higher and fell back, showing that the main bulls were weak, and once reached the 81.80 line below to stop falling and rebound. From the picture below, we can clearly see that there has been a super main force buying the bottom signal. It is said that there will be a rebound in the short term. In the short term, we can focus on the pressure on Nos. 1 and 2. It is expected that the bottom area will continue to fluctuate and build a bottom. In the short term, in terms of operation, we will continue to think of going high and low and long. The specific suggestions are as follows: Crude oil is short at 83.90 and 84.90 respectively, with a stop loss of 70 points and a profit stop of 200 points; Crude oil is long at 82.10 and 79.80 respectively, with a stop loss of 70 points and a profit stop of 200 points. If you need more analysis and signals please join me
TVC:USOIL
by Krause_Philipp
Oil price analysis in weekly timeBut black gold What is 100% clear and certain for me is that there is no seller in the upper price levels and the price level of $130 is empty of heavy sellers and oil has a target of $138. But until the price reaches 138 dollars, many ups and downs are possible, because the weekly price structure is currently downward and the price has made a PA in the range of 75 dollars. My event is determined by the fluctuations in the price of the red chart. In my opinion, inflammation and big events are happening in the world, which we will witness in these years, and these developments have started from the Middle East. Like a 52 Hz whale whose sound cannot be heard by any other whale. I am watching.
RUS:BR1!Long
by fiftytwohertzwhale
Oil (CL) Aggro/Oversold Fade BUYQuick take/analysis, but consider scooping some low-risk crude contracts here (break above 84.84). Better demand zones are lower, but we've had a sizable downdraft into buy areas + are testing a key support/resistance area (~84-85), so those traders may be at our backs. The US dollar has finally taken a pause at the supply zone we ID’d in posts from earlier this week/last week, so that may help commodity, including CL, longs. Keep this one a tight leash; the bounce we’ve had thus far has been tepid, a micro timeframe higher high/higher low hasn’t yet been put in , and daily/weekly “demand” is lower still (low-80s/upper-70s). That said, CL is certainly a trade to put on your radar. Given the technical structure of the recent selloff, consider taking any profits at 1:1, then 86, 87, and 88+. Again, better buys are lower, but start paying attention/stalking longs as remaining profit margin for short sellers is a lot smaller than it was at the beginning of the week (though there is still some downside risk)! Happy trading! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JHartCharts
Market tension is greater than the impact of the dollar Expectations of tighter crude oil supply and an uncertain economic outlook have caused demand concerns. At the same time, crude oil continues to be hit by the double blow of the appreciation of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate hikes, and the impact of a rapid tightening of supply is offset by market investors' low risk appetite for higher interest rates in the long term. Oil prices in Asia rose to 91.5. The subsequent trend will rebound and then rise slowly. The overall market is bullish.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan
Oil Soars to 2023 Highs: Sets New Support Levels? WTI crude futures surged by 3.5% on Wednesday, briefly reaching above $94, marking their highest settlement price of 2023. This impressive rally followed the release of EIA data indicating a larger-than-expected decrease in US crude inventories, showing a 2.17 million barrel drop in the past week. In parallel, Brent crude futures saw a substantial increase of 2.8%, reaching $96.55 and even breaching the $97 threshold during the trading session. Market sentiment is increasingly concerned about tightening supplies as we approach the northern hemisphere winter. Earlier in the month, major OPEC+ players, Saudi Arabia and Russia, extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels through the end of the year. The question that looms is whether oil can fall below the recent lows of $88.00 per barrel without a decision to raise production? And if we don’t see the impetus for oil to keep going higher, how well do we think the recent higher highs ($92.65) and lower highs ($91.30) will fare against some potential corrective downside pressure?
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull_Markets
Crude oil in short supply The supply side of the global oil market continues to reduce production, and oil prices will continue to rise in the short term. Russia's fuel export ban announced last week has raised supply concerns and demand woes from future interest rate hikes. In the current context of the crude oil market, what needs attention is that once the Federal Reserve misjudges the U.S. economy, superimposes a rebound in inflation, and excessively raises interest rates, it may suppress crude oil prices. (The strength of the US dollar index has suppressed the prices of gold and crude oil) The overall trend of crude oil was very weak yesterday. After a slow rise during the day, it did not continue, but the US market fell sharply. The RSI technical indicator is bullish. Trading in the 89.5-91.5 range.
CLong
by Anthony-Ryan
Exciting Opportunities Await! Join the Oil Boom Today!As you might have noticed, oil prices have been on the rise lately, and there are two compelling reasons behind this bullish trend. Firstly, the potential recovery of the Chinese economy has sparked a wave of optimism worldwide. China, the world's largest oil importer, is showing signs of bouncing back, which could significantly boost demand and drive prices even higher. Secondly, concerns about global oil supply have been causing a stir in the market. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and production cuts by major oil-producing nations have created a sense of urgency, further pushing prices upward. This perfect storm of factors is creating a fantastic environment for traders like you to make some serious gains! Now, you might be wondering, "How can I get in on this action?" Well, fear not, my friends, because I have an exciting call-to-action for you. It's time to consider going long on oil and ride the wave of this potential surge! By taking a long position on oil, you can position yourself to benefit from the anticipated rise in prices. As demand increases and supply concerns persist, you can capitalize on these market dynamics and maximize your profits. It's time to put your trading skills to the test and make the most of this promising situation! Remember, timing is crucial in the world of trading, and this may be the perfect moment to dive into the oil market. Keep a close eye on the latest news, market indicators, and expert analysis to make informed decisions that align with your trading strategy. With a positive mindset and a well-thought-out plan, there's no limit to what you can achieve! So, my fellow traders, are you ready to embark on this thrilling journey and make your mark in the oil market? The potential for substantial gains awaits you! Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to long oil and ride the wave of China's recovery and global supply worries. Take action today, and let's make this an unforgettable trading experience! Wishing you happy trading and abundant profits,
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Russia and Saudi Arabia Extend Supply Cut Until Year-End 🚀It's time to buckle up and get ready for an exhilarating ride as we witness the recent developments that are set to fuel our profits. 📈 I am thrilled to share the fantastic news that Russia and Saudi Arabia have just announced their decision to extend the supply cut until the end of this year. This strategic move is expected to significantly boost oil prices, creating a perfect opportunity for us to make some serious gains. 🌟 With these two major players committed to reducing supply, the market is set to tighten further, putting upward pressure on oil prices. As a result, we anticipate a surge in demand, leading to a perfect storm for traders who go long on oil. 📈💰 Now, you might wonder, "How can I capitalize on this golden opportunity?" Well, fret not, my fellow traders, as I have an exciting call to action for you. It's time to get into the driver's seat and join the oil rally! 🚀 Here's what you can do to maximize your potential gains: 1. Stay informed: Keep a close eye on the latest news, market trends, and expert analysis related to oil. Being well-informed will help you make smarter trading decisions. 2. Conduct thorough research: Dive deep into the fundamentals of the oil market, including supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and any other relevant indicators that may impact oil prices. 3. Develop a solid trading strategy: Craft a robust plan that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals. Consider entry and exit points, stop-loss orders, and profit targets to optimize your trading experience. 4. Leverage trading platforms: To enhance trading efficiency, utilize advanced trading platforms that offer real-time data, analysis tools, and features like stop-loss and take-profit orders. 5. Stay disciplined: Stick to your trading strategy and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term fluctuations. Patience and discipline are critical to long-term success. Remember, the oil market is buzzing with potential, and this extended supply cut presents an incredible opportunity for us to ride the wave of success. So, let's gear up, embrace the positive vibes, and make the most of this bullish momentum! 📈💪 If you have any questions or need assistance with your trading journey, please don't hesitate to contact our dedicated support team. We are here to help you navigate the exciting world of oil trading and ensure a seamless experience. I am wishing you happy trading and abundant!
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil Pushes to $86 as Supply Cuts ContinueIntroduction: We've got some exciting news to share today - oil prices are soaring to new heights as supply cuts persist! The black gold is inching closer to the $86 mark daily, and we couldn't be happier. So, prepare to seize this golden opportunity and long oil like never before! The Rising Tide of Oil Prices: In recent months, we've witnessed a remarkable surge in oil prices, driven primarily by the ongoing supply cuts. Major oil-producing nations, including OPEC and its allies, have worked diligently to stabilize the market. Their efforts have paid off, resulting in a steady reduction in oil supply. As a result, the demand-supply dynamics have shifted in favor of traders looking to go long on oil. The $86 Milestone: Now, let's talk numbers, traders! We're approaching the much-anticipated $86 milestone, and the excitement is palpable. With each passing day, oil prices are inching closer to this psychological barrier. As the global economy rebounds and oil demand grows more robust, we can expect prices to continue their upward trajectory. This is the perfect time to capitalize on this trend and make substantial gains! Why Go Long on Oil? The reasons to go long on oil are plentiful, my friends. Firstly, the ongoing supply cuts have significantly reduced the surplus fat in the market, paving the way for increased prices. Additionally, as the global economy recovers from the pandemic-induced slowdown, industries ramp up production, leading to a surge in oil demand. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties continue influencing oil prices, making it an attractive asset for traders seeking volatility and profit potential. Call-to-Action: It's Time to Long Oil! Fellow traders, the time has come to seize this incredible opportunity and long oil! With prices pushing towards $86, there's no better time to jump on this bandwagon. Here's what you need to do: 1. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on market trends, news, and developments that impact the oil industry. Knowledge is power, and being well-informed will help you make informed trading decisions. 2. Analyze and Strategize: Develop a robust trading strategy based on your analysis of the market dynamics. Consider supply and demand, production levels, geopolitical events, and economic indicators to maximize profit potential. 3. Diversify Your Portfolio: While going long on oil presents an exciting opportunity, it's always wise to diversify your trading portfolio. Explore other commodities, stocks, or assets to mitigate risks and optimize your trading experience. 4. Consult with Experts: Seeking advice from experienced traders or financial advisors can provide valuable insights and help you refine your trading strategy. Utilize their expertise to make well-informed decisions. Conclusion: Traders, the oil market is buzzing with excitement as prices surge towards the $86 mark. With ongoing supply cuts and a growing global economy, the time is ripe to buy oil and make substantial gains. Stay positive, stay informed, and prepare for this wave of success. Happy trading, and may your profits soar higher than ever before!
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
3
China's Economic Woes and Increased Oil Production Introduction: Recently, the global oil market has been experiencing significant fluctuations due to a combination of factors. The economic slowdown in China and the increased oil production in Iran and Venezuela have led to a drop in oil prices. As traders, it is crucial to approach this situation cautiously and explore opportunities to take advantage of this market scenario. Understanding the Factors at Play: 1. China's Economic Deterioration: China, the world's second-largest economy, has been grappling with a slowdown, which has had a direct impact on the oil demand. As the country's manufacturing and industrial sectors face challenges, the need for oil decreases, contributing to the price drop. 2. Increased Production in Iran and Venezuela: The easing of sanctions on Iran and the resurgence of oil production in Venezuela have further added to the supply glut in the market. As these countries ramp up their production, the oversupply of oil leads to a downward pressure on prices. Capitalizing on the Situation: While the oil price drop may pose risks, it also presents opportunities for traders to profit from the market. However, it is crucial to approach this situation with a cautious mindset and consider the following strategies: 1. Diversify Your Portfolio: As the oil market remains volatile, it is essential to diversify your trading portfolio to minimize potential risks. Consider exploring other sectors or commodities less affected by the oil price drop. 2. Monitor Global Economic Indicators: Keep a close eye on economic indicators, particularly those related to China's financial performance. You can make more informed trading decisions and mitigate potential losses by staying informed about the latest developments. 3. Analyze Geopolitical Factors: Stay updated on geopolitical events that may impact oil prices. Developments in Iran and Venezuela, such as political tensions or changes in production policies, can significantly impact the oil market. Remain vigilant and adapt your trading strategies accordingly. 4. Utilize Risk Management Tools: To protect your investments, implement risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders and trailing stops. These tools can help limit potential losses in case of unexpected market movements. Call-to-Action: Seize the Opportunity to Profit from Oil While the oil price drop may seem daunting, it presents a unique opportunity for traders to capitalize on the market situation. By carefully analyzing market trends, diversifying portfolios, and utilizing risk management tools, traders can navigate the oil market cautiously and potentially secure profitable outcomes. Stay informed and adapt your trading strategies to the evolving market conditions is crucial. Take advantage of this period of oil price drop by making well-informed decisions and seizing the profit potential. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions. Note: It is essential to consult with a financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln