Oilbullish
First Oil Buy SetupThe overall current trend for US Oil is bullish, so I rarely look for the sell. In this case, I used the Fib on the largest wave in the uptrend and saw that the first retraced just a few pips below the 61.8 level.The second wave had made it highest high and was retracing between the 50 and 61.8 levels when I was looking for the buy setup. At this point, I knew the market would range/consolidate (yellow box) because it had previously consolidated in this area (along black line) then would continue short until the 61.8 level.
My support and resistance lines (black lines) helped me to identify a zone/area the market was most likely to hit before continuing up. I highlighted the area where I would have entered the market for the buy (purple box). When I checked my chart later, I saw that price and in fact retraced just a few pips below the 61.8 Fib level, wicked my buy zone and took off bullish.
Unfortunately, I had missed the whole move of about 200 pips.
BUY OIL!!!!! The technicals demand it.With the USA gradually lifting restrictions on Covid-19, the wheels of industry will soon be turning again. And what greases those wheels? Yes - OIL .
A glance at the Monthly chart on BCOUSD shows a very pleasing end of month long-legged doji - a sure sign of indecision. Add to this the bounce off the WPP mid-pivot and everything says BUY!!!!!.
I'm in at 23.82 with a STOP at 22.24 and a provisional take profit at 26.52. Looks a winner to me.
www.mql5.com
WLLI am loving this chart here guys, I did a fractal from 9/2017 support up to resistance on June 2018. This channel has been established since 2016 and if my chart is correct WLL
should make a run to re-enter the channel. Even if WLL fails to get back into the channel the upside is massive and there is almost 0 risk. If the oil market does in fact turn down towards $10 (which I don't think is happening) then I will probably buy another 1k shares worth and keep my LT TP for $15, and probably $32. Not sure if WLL can beat that but they FA is solid with over 500 mil in cash reserves 1.5 bil sales
and only 98 mil shares outstanding.
In conclusion I stay bulls on OIL, Uranium, very big bull on LITHIUM, Silver and TP on WLL around $16 Fam
Crude OIL longs have held, next stop back above $58.50!Crude oil manages to come back to a key support level and rotates well. The $57.90-58.05 area held really well and the long extended wicks on the candles suggest a strong buy sentiment is protecting the upside.
The buyers are coming in on strong volume and we expect price to move back to the resistance level at $58.50 first and then through the $59.00 level.
The support we identified also comes into confluence with the volume profile edge support for the month of November.
Price needs to stay above $58.00 should the longs hold this level, below $57.85 this trade is losing steam, we have no seen a candle close under that level to end the week.
OIL / CL - Large bullish weekly candle - Get ready for blastoff!This video discussed the large bullish weekly pinbar setup that has formed in light crude. I discussed the current market structure, trading tips and trade ideas. Notes from the video are posted below.
**Current Market Structure**
-Long term bullish trend
-Price has stayed within bullish channel
-Large bullish weekly candle from pullback off of key support
**Trading Tips**
-Chances are higher now that price makes a string bullish run up to $75 and may even make a quick run to 80.
-Keep in mind that oil is generally a volatile product and large out-sized moves are common.
-This can be traded as pure directional using either futures, CFDs, or ETFs(with oil exposure), but due to the high IV I am looking to get both directional and short premium, which can be done by selling puts.
-Either enter on a retracement around $69 (more risky) or a break above the weekly candle around $71.25(less risky)
-Price targets are $75 and $80
**Trade Ideas**
-Sold a put w/ $61.50 strike(15 delta, 30 DTE) when price was at $67
-Rolled that put up to $64 strike(17 delta, 27 DTE) when price was at $69
-Now that we have a price action signal I am considering rolling up to a 30 delta option($66) to get more directional
-Keep in mind that September light crude is at 68.14, $2 below spot price
OIL /CL USO - Short Premium - Short put into high IV for $$$The 1 year IVR in USO has reached 93%, and has reach 100% on the 90 day IVR. This is exactly when we want to begin selling premium. In this case I decided not to sell a straddle(selling both a put and a call), because I don't like the upside risk I would be taking on. With this trade, selling a put, we are both selling premium and getting directional.
Technically I like this trade because price is reaching a key support of $66.30 where I think oil could find a floor and even pop a bit higher from here as bulls begin stepping in.
The specific trade I took was the short put @ 61.50 w/ 30 DTE. It has a 15 delta (85% chance of full profitability), with a break even of $61. Oil would have to fall another 10% in the next 30 days just to hit break even, so I like the odds.
US Oil LongUpdating my idea last week with a lower buy limit order around @65 and TP still @70 and SL near @64. This is based on bullish overall market sentiment on Oil and price arbitrage opportunity.
www.marketwatch.com
www.bloomberg.com
business.financialpost.com
oilprice.com
oilprice.com
Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: B (oil is more likely to consolidate at 65 in the short-term, but in the long run it is expected to rise --except if rising US shale oil inventories disrupt the supply-demand momentum as well as fear about another 2008 market crash but this time triggered by oil once OPEC together with Russia, "artificially" boost its price up by extending the December supply limit agreement up to next year)