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Oilforecast

Crude oil----sell near 69.00, target 65.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Today's crude oil trend is still bearish. There was a small rebound yesterday, but the rebound was just a rebound and has not reversed. The shape and indicators of crude oil are both bearish. Today, we can continue to sell it based on 69.0. If there is no major surprise in the fundamentals of crude oil, it is difficult to turn around after buying. The big suppression is also around 69.00 and 70.00. Fundamental analysis: Trump's tariffs have been affecting the market. The previous situation in the Middle East has temporarily come to an end, so gold has risen again due to risk aversion. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----sell near 69.00, target 65.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingGoldenVermilion
Crude oil------sell near 67.00, target 62.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil daily line began to fluctuate, and entered a stagnant market after a sharp drop. Without the influence of the Middle East situation, it is inevitable that crude oil will start to fall all the way. Crude oil will rebound this week. Pay attention to the suppression of 67.00. Consider selling it close to it. Crude oil rebounds greatly and sells. Sell it when it rebounds slightly. The strong support below is around 63.00 and 60.00. Fundamental analysis: Last week, we experienced the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the suppression of the previous non-agricultural employment data. At present, the data and fundamentals are suppressing gold and crude oil. However, the US dollar did not rise, but kept falling. Operation suggestion Crude oil------sell near 67.00, target 62.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingGoldenVermilion
Geopolitics vs. Technical: Will Oil Correct -7%?Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) rose more than +20% after the start of tensions between Iran and Israel on Friday . I hope this tension ends as soon as possible because tensions have no winners. The behavior and price movements of oil will certainly depend on the increase or decrease of tensions in the Middle East , but for the coming hours we can have a technical view . Oil is currently moving in the Resistance zone($78.70-$74.70) and near the Resistance lines and the Yearly Pivot Point . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Oil has completed the second five-impulse waves . So that wave 5 is Truncated . I expect Oil to decline in the coming hours, this decline could be -7% . Note: If the USA is added to the Middle East tensions, Oil prices could rise again, so pay more attention to capital management. Note: Stop Loss: $79.00 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/ BRENT CRUDE OIL (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
15
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today. Fundamental analysis: The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future. Operational suggestions Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00Crude oil market analysis: Last week's crude oil was very exaggerated because it broke the super suppression of 65.00 on the daily line. Once this position was broken, crude oil began to be standard. This is also the result of our many predictions of the cycle. Crude oil purchases will continue to soar this week. In addition, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will make it difficult for crude oil to fall in the short term. I estimate that there is a possibility of repair. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. In addition, the delivery period of crude oil futures contracts will also cause it to fluctuate violently again. Fundamental analysis: There are many fundamental analyses and data recently. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis: We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still failed to rise. The buying price still failed to stand above 65.00 and was still fluctuating. Today, we continue to look at the range wave. We still consider selling it when it is close to 64. The crude oil inventory data does not give us much room for imagination. In addition, the recent fundamentals of crude oil are not strong, and they do not support the long position of crude oil, which has caused crude oil to fluctuate and hover. The current fluctuation range we see is 65.00-60.00. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand. To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system. Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity. This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows. It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower. Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher." The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region. Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil. However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists. The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement. Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer. The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies. In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still did not rise. After the daily line was adjusted, the buying and selling game became more obvious. Today, it rebounded and continued to sell. Syria's thawing restrictions have helped to support the continuation of crude oil selling. In addition, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also suppressed crude oil. In the long run, crude oil is unlikely to rise again. Today, pay attention to the short position opportunity of 62.70. Fundamental analysis: Recently, there are many fundamentals, but relatively few data, which has a great impact on the market. The Sino-US trade negotiations, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, and the India-Pakistan ceasefire have all affected the market. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Gold has been moving recently, and crude oil has also moved with it. Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, and is currently testing the big pass near 65.00 on the weekly line. If this position is broken, we will be bullish on the long-term trend of crude oil. Today's crude oil idea is to rebound in the short term, and the general trend is bearish. Consider selling when it approaches 65.00 for the first time. 61.30 is the buying and receiving position. Pay attention to the inventory changes of crude oil later. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Oil - Short Term Sell Trade Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 17th I shared this idea "Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short Term" I expected to see bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. You can read the full post using the link above. Price moved lower as per the plan here!!! Price respected the first Fibonacci resistance zone, created a false break of it and moved lower as expected!!! If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTIShort
by VladimirRibakov
Short on Oil/Back to 57$ SOONI believe we can continue the retest of previous major support level at 65-66$ and fibonacci 0.618. This major support will be flipped to resistance in my opinion. We can see a significant sell-off back towards the 57$ area and below from this location. I will be looking to enter a short trade from the 0.618 region/66$ if there is a rejection. My mid-term/end-of-year prediction for US OIL is between 45-50$ and possibly lower. If you believe in the fundamentals and idea of this setup, feel free to follow and use it. Not financial advice.
TVC:USOILShort
by SuperiorJG
1
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Yesterday's daily line finally began to decline. Crude oil is bearish in both the big and small trends. Continue to sell when it rebounds to the moving average. The crude oil pattern is still weak on the daily line. The current suppression position has begun to move down. Crude oil 61.68 is an opportunity to sell. The daily moving average has begun to rush down. Don't intercept it. Fundamental analysis Today, we will start to pay attention to the ADP data, as well as PCE data and EIA crude oil inventory data. Operation suggestions Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Oil - Short Term Sell Trade Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 17th I shared this idea "Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short Term" I expected to see bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. You can read the full post using the link above. The price is currently holding in the first Fibonacci resistance zone. Until both the Fibonacci resistance zones hold my bearish view still remains. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTIShort
by VladimirRibakov
Crude oil---sell near 63.00, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil daily line has also begun to decline. Yesterday, the daily line closed negative, and the selling began to decline. Today's idea is to consider selling opportunities near the rebound of 63.00. Crude oil continues to be bearish. No matter the fundamentals or technical aspects, there is no sign of bullishness. Today, crude oil is expected to fluctuate and fall. Don't chase the rebound. We are considering it. In addition, crude oil will also close the monthly line. Pay attention to its monthly line. Fundamental analysis: This week is a data week. Starting from Wednesday, big data will be released one by one. In addition, continue to pay attention to the situation of the US dollar and the changes in tariff policies. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 63.00, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering. Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering. Operational suggestions Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314