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Oilforecast

Oil Prices Form Bearish Head & Shoulders – Key Neckline in FocusWTI crude oil is showing a clear Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal signal. The left shoulder formed in early July, followed by a higher peak forming the head in mid-July, and finally the right shoulder near the current levels, which is lower than the head. The neckline is positioned around $66.00, acting as a key support level. Currently, the price is trading at $67.34, hovering slightly above this neckline, indicating that the market is at a critical decision point. A confirmed break below the neckline could accelerate bearish momentum, targeting the $62.20 – $62.80 zone based on the pattern’s measured move. However, if the neckline holds, a possible bounce toward $68.50 – $69.00 could occur, but overall bias remains bearish unless the price can break and sustain above $69.00. Key Price Levels: - Resistance: $68.50 – $69.00 - Neckline Support: $66.00 - Bearish Target (if confirmed): $62.20 – $62.80 Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by SibiSh
Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-64.00Crude oil market analysis: The idea of crude oil today is still bearish. Xiaoyang predicts that it will rebound first and then continue to fall. Consider selling near 67.50 if it rebounds. Crude oil is basically weak if it does not stand above 70.00. Crude oil is a repair market after a big drop. In theory, it will continue to fall after the repair. In addition, pay attention to crude oil inventory data later. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-64.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil-----sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market direction: The recent daily crude oil line has been hovering, and it feels like it is falling or not falling. The daily crude oil line is still bearish. Let's continue to sell it on the rebound. For crude oil today, we focus on the suppression of 67.00. Consider selling it at this rebound position. The daily crude oil line needs to break the 64.00 position to see real selling force, otherwise it is a repair shock with a very small amplitude. Fundamental analysis: The latest news is that the United States and the European Union have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which overall supports the US dollar and suppresses gold. In addition, this week, pay attention to ADP employment data, non-agricultural employment data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and speech. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been falling recently, but the decline is not large, and the rebound will not be large. Consider selling crude oil if it rebounds slightly. The crude oil idea is bearish. It is difficult for crude oil to rise sharply without fundamentals, but we insist on taking losses in operation. If there is no loss, a piece of news will make it take off directly. Crude oil focuses on 64.00 support, and suppresses 67.50 and 69.50. Consider selling opportunities when the Asian session rebounds to 67.50. Fundamental analysis: Tariffs have not affected the market recently, and no major news has been announced. The market is relatively calm. Operational suggestions: Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has started a new contract. The new contract is still not moving much at present, and the contract spread is not much. The daily line has begun to decline. Today's idea is to sell at a rebound of 67.50. The suppression position is 67.50 and 69.00, and the support is around 64.00. If this position is broken, there will be a greater room for decline. Fundamental analysis: There is no major news in the recent fundamentals. The situation in the Middle East is still relatively stable. There is no new rest on tariffs, and the impact on the market is limited. Operational suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil------sell near 68.80, target 66.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Recent crude oil is actually very easy to operate. Sell when it rebounds to a high position. Don't worry about the position. In addition, the daily K-line has also begun to decline, and it is difficult to form a large rebound. The new daily moving average begins to sort. If there is no fundamental support in the future, crude oil has a lot of room to fall, and it will fall below 58 in the future. Sell it when it rebounds to around 68.80 today. Fundamental analysis: Today is a holiday in Tokyo, Japan. In addition, there is no major data this week. We focus on the fundamentals. Trump's tariffs are still a focus. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 68.80, target 66.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude oil---sell near 67.50, target 65.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Pay attention to the impact of contract delivery on the trend of crude oil. The daily line of crude oil does not show the strength of its rebound. In terms of operation, it is still a rebound sell. Crude oil continues to be bearish. The situation in the Middle East has not made any major moves temporarily, and the support for crude oil is limited. Pay attention to the selling opportunities near 67.30 today. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 67.50, target 65.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
1
Crude oil-----Sell near 66.80, target 65.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil daily line began to decline, but a small V appeared last night, which was also caused by the situation in the Middle East. Israel bombed Syria and crude oil began to rebound. Overall, crude oil is still bearish. We consider continuing to sell it when it rebounds. It has not broken near 64.00, and it is difficult to form a large unilateral. The suppression position is near 66.80. Consider selling it near it. Fundamental analysis: Trump’s dissatisfaction with Powell has not been a day or two. Conflict is inevitable, and the impact on gold is also short-term. Yesterday’s pull-up and dive is a case in point. Operational suggestions Crude oil-----Sell near 66.80, target 65.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00Crude oil market analysis: Recently, crude oil has been rising, and buying is slowly climbing, but the amplitude is not particularly large. The daily line has not formed a large buying pattern. It is currently a technical repair market after falling too much. Today's idea is to sell on the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 70.00. If this position is broken, it may change the short-term trend and buying may rise. Fundamental analysis: Last week, Trump increased tariffs on Canada and is about to increase tariffs on Brazil. There is no sign of stopping the tariff war. It is long-term bullish for gold. The situation in the Middle East has not completely stopped, and it is also long-term suppression of the US dollar to support gold. Operation suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NicolaZhu
Geopolitics vs. Technical: Will Oil Correct -7%?Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) rose more than +20% after the start of tensions between Iran and Israel on Friday . I hope this tension ends as soon as possible because tensions have no winners. The behavior and price movements of oil will certainly depend on the increase or decrease of tensions in the Middle East , but for the coming hours we can have a technical view . Oil is currently moving in the Resistance zone($78.70-$74.70) and near the Resistance lines and the Yearly Pivot Point . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Oil has completed the second five-impulse waves . So that wave 5 is Truncated . I expect Oil to decline in the coming hours, this decline could be -7% . Note: If the USA is added to the Middle East tensions, Oil prices could rise again, so pay more attention to capital management. Note: Stop Loss: $79.00 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/ BRENT CRUDE OIL (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
15
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today. Fundamental analysis: The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future. Operational suggestions Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00Crude oil market analysis: Last week's crude oil was very exaggerated because it broke the super suppression of 65.00 on the daily line. Once this position was broken, crude oil began to be standard. This is also the result of our many predictions of the cycle. Crude oil purchases will continue to soar this week. In addition, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will make it difficult for crude oil to fall in the short term. I estimate that there is a possibility of repair. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. In addition, the delivery period of crude oil futures contracts will also cause it to fluctuate violently again. Fundamental analysis: There are many fundamental analyses and data recently. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis: We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still failed to rise. The buying price still failed to stand above 65.00 and was still fluctuating. Today, we continue to look at the range wave. We still consider selling it when it is close to 64. The crude oil inventory data does not give us much room for imagination. In addition, the recent fundamentals of crude oil are not strong, and they do not support the long position of crude oil, which has caused crude oil to fluctuate and hover. The current fluctuation range we see is 65.00-60.00. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand. To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system. Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity. This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows. It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower. Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher." The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region. Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil. However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists. The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement. Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer. The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies. In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still did not rise. After the daily line was adjusted, the buying and selling game became more obvious. Today, it rebounded and continued to sell. Syria's thawing restrictions have helped to support the continuation of crude oil selling. In addition, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also suppressed crude oil. In the long run, crude oil is unlikely to rise again. Today, pay attention to the short position opportunity of 62.70. Fundamental analysis: Recently, there are many fundamentals, but relatively few data, which has a great impact on the market. The Sino-US trade negotiations, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, and the India-Pakistan ceasefire have all affected the market. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 61.50, target 61.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Gold has been moving recently, and crude oil has also moved with it. Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, and is currently testing the big pass near 65.00 on the weekly line. If this position is broken, we will be bullish on the long-term trend of crude oil. Today's crude oil idea is to rebound in the short term, and the general trend is bearish. Consider selling when it approaches 65.00 for the first time. 61.30 is the buying and receiving position. Pay attention to the inventory changes of crude oil later. Operational suggestions: Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314