Oilforecast
Oil is on an important LevelWatchout for this level. one of my fav chart because it is easy to read and predict.
$USEG Next Target PTs 13-18 and higherU.S. Energy Corp., an independent energy company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the continental United States. It holds interests in various oil and gas properties in the Williston Basin in North Dakota; the Permian Basin in New Mexico; and Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had an estimated proved reserves of 1,344,626 barrel of oil equivalent; oil and natural gas leases covered 89,846 gross acres and 5,757 net acres; and 146 gross producing wells. U.S. Energy Corp. was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Long-term oil analysis #oilsome notes:
1_In World War II, because the United States won the war, it said that my dollar should be the reference currency
2_The United States did not fulfill its contract and did not store gold against the dollar
3_European countries realized and wanted to buy gold under the same law for every $ 35 an ounce of gold
4_Meanwhile, Arab countries imposed sanctions on Europe and oil prices rose
5_Now European countries needed dollars to buy oil
6_If oil prices are low, it is very dangerous for
the United States because negative inflation in the United States will form and stagnate.
Because the United States runs its country with
debt, it's the best inflationary position
7- America wants a lot of production so that the
industries will stop working and there will be an increase
$MARPS Next Target PTs 32-45 and higherMarine Petroleum Trust, together with its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. As of June 30, 2021, the company had an overriding royalty interest in 55 oil and natural gas leases covering approximately 199,868 gross acres located in the Central and Western areas of the Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Marine Petroleum Trust was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
$HUSA Next Target PTs 16-35 and higher Long term PT 150 and highHouston American Energy Corp., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
$IMPP Next Target PTs 9-18 and higherImperial Petroleum Inc. provides international seaborne transportation services to oil producers, refineries, and commodities traders. It carries refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals; and crude oils. As of March 29, 2022, the company owned four medium range refined petroleum product tankers and one Aframax crude oil tanker with a total capacity of 305,804 deadweight tons. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Athens, Greece.
Bearish News Is Mounting For Oil18 hours ago,I read:CHINA-Lockdown and I shorted immediately all my positions in crude,brent and WTI.In some I took the losses,other Break even or profits. The fact is :My decision was King.Our Jobs as Traers is to be flexible and adapt as soon as possible to the market circumtances.Sosometimes News catalysts like these help to decide immediately. Although our system tells us the oppositite:THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE MARKET PRICE ACTION. And price action are made by the smart money. Sofollowthe money.Be alwaysflexible and have an edge beide your trading system.Such as News catalyst.
Oil prices remained fairly stable this week, with ICE Brent balancing slightly above the $100 per barrel mark. Fears of Russian supply disruptions were temporarily put on the back burner by the vast IEA-coordinated inventory release that greatly helped in flattening out the futures curves of all three key crude benchmarks. The extensions of COVID lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai, have also helped the bearish cause, however it remains to be seen how long will it take for disruption fears to resurface again.
IEA to Release 60 Million Barrels of Strategic Stocks. Above and beyond the US’ 180-million-barrel stock draw, IEA countries agreed to release 60 million barrels over the upcoming six months, with Japan taking a prime role amidst the relatively timid commitments of others, pledging to release 15 million barrels.
EU to Ban Russian Coal, with Delay. According to media reports, the European Union’s approval of a ban on Russian coal imports would take full effect from mid-August, following internal lobbying from Germany to extend the deadline as far out as possible to allow usual buying in the four-month wind-down period.
Chile Sues Mining Giants over Atacama Water Use. The government of Chile is suing mining majors BHP (NYSE:BHP) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) over alleged environmental damage caused by their operations in the Atacama desert, draining the area’s aquifer by increased exploitation.
US EPA Denies 36 Refinery Biofuel Waivers. The US Environmental Protection Agency declined 36 exemption waivers coming from oil refiners for the 2018 compliance year, confirming a 2020 court decision that significantly narrowed the criteria on who could be eligible for blending exemptions.
Canada Approves $12 Billion Bay du Nord Project. The Canadian government approved the $12 billion offshore Bay du Nord project that would be operated by Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), having found no adverse environmental effects, marking the country’s first deep-water project that took years to greenlight.
Tight Oil Markets Are Sending Fuel Margins Through The Roof
The oil price rally has really cooled down over the past two weeks, with oil prices declining to levels last seen prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brent oil (CO1:COM) prices fell ~2% Thursday to trade below $100/b, while the price for a barrel of Brent for June 2022 delivery has fallen from $127/b one month ago to $99/b today. Pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai, slowing U.S. oil demand growth, and a historic strategic petroleum reserve release have all contributed to the selloff. Interestingly, medium-term prices have hardly budged as near-term oil prices have fallen by over 20%, indicating a still-bullish longer-term outlook.
That said, whereas it's crude markets that have been hogging the limelight, the most dramatic action in global oil markets has been happening in a more hidden corner of the market: distillate fuels.
The price of diesel and jet fuel in Europe hit a record in early March amid unusually tight supplies. Both commodities have since pared some of their gains, but refiners are still making a killing.
Indeed, in another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York on Monday ($7.61/g), a massive ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is currently ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past 30yrs.
High Fuel Margins To Last
There's a good chance that high fuel prices will ultimately lead to demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs says distillate fuel demand is likely to remain strong and margins to remain high due to these factors:
Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating.
Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel.
High natural gas prices will lead to "gas-to-oil" switching in Europe and Asia.
The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners.
Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe.
In fact, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end. In the U.S., names like Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC )and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) stand to benefit from higher refining margins while in Europe, Saras (OTCPK:SAAFY) is most exposed.
Meanwhile, during its Q1 earnings preview, Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) mentioned improving refining margins, with indicators nearly doubling quarter over quarter.
Falling Russian Exports
Another reason to be bullish about fuel margins: falling Russian exports.
Russia is a key source of distillate fuel for Europe and the world. Shortly after the war began, BP Plc (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) stopped selling spot diesel in Germany. Last week, Argentina’s YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) cited diesel "scarcity" in the seaborne market. Jet fuel margins in New York harbor rose to $200/b earlier in the week, a ten-fold increase from historic averages.
Attempts to measure the impact of self sanctioning on Russian exports have seen mixed results, with some studies suggesting that exports have largely continued to flow unchanged while others say they could have declined by as much as 3.0mb/d. Thus far, the only measurable impact on exports has come from a terminal outage—a terminal that primarily carries Kazakhstani crude to market.
So far, Russia's pivotal energy sector has been largely spared from sanctions. But damning evidence of serious war crimes coming from Ukraine suggests that Russia could very well face more severe sanctions, including a ban on its oil by European nations.
Related: Oil Rises As Videos Emerge Of Attack On Saudi Oil Facility
Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that a move towards explicit EU sanctions on Russian oil imports would keep Russian output below 8.5mb/d for several years, good for a 3mb/d decline compared to pre-invasion levels, and introduce further downside to already low expectations for Russian oil output. According to StanChart, the EU's most likely immediate measure--i.e., imposing sanctions on coal--will do little to placate member states and public opinion for a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on Russia.
Further, EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas would send a strong signal that Russian oil is unlikely to regain its former market in Europe for an extended period, if ever. EU sanctions will also likely increase the pressure on key countries, and particularly India, not to increase their imports from Russia above pre-invasion levels; up to now, part of the pushback from other users of Russian oil has been that they could not be expected to refrain from extra purchases if EU governments were not explicitly limiting their own use.
In other words, fuel margins might remain elevated for many months, if not years.
USOIL Price Target for the summer With increase in demand from travel this year, despite the high inflation and exploding prices, UBS has put a price target for Crude Oil of $125.
The bullish trendline is there to confirm this outcome.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
OIL SHORT BACK TO MAIN TREND IF CLOSE OUTSIDE 50 MOVING AVERAGEHi there,
As you see on the chart, OIL has closed below the 50MA on the daily time frame. We need to see a full candle close below 50MA for short. It is still above the 200MA so still a bullish trend up. But we may want to catch the fall back to the main trend. You can see our entry and profit target.
Profit target = next support point.
Entry Point = Ideally we should wait for a retest and reject from the 50MA to enter for the fall.
Indicator:
> MACD = showing sell but need more sellers
> RSI = below 50, need more strength to the down side
We don't want to see OIL close inside the symmetric triangle.
kind regards
WTI Waiting For A BreakoutA close above $108.80 would confirm the daily probable symmetrical triangle.
Minimum target: $137.00
WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up.
Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for.
Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March.
After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day.
The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low
The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine.
Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions.
In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel.
The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low.
Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil.
Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’.
This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol.
Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many
investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%.
After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind
WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products
WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia.
Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.''
Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently.
The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week.
Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns.
"The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report.
''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.
''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
BCO soon again 120 AND OIL READY FOR 150 BEFORE TACKLING 220USDOil Could Rise to $120-150 Range in Next Few Months
Oil price forecast April 2022 and beyond: Will prices test $140?
Oil prices eased slightly on Friday, robust US data and weekend risk supporting prices, while US SPR releases as well as yet to be determined ones from other IEA members capped gains. A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels has had no noticeable impact on prices today.
The China holiday is definitely muting trading volumes in Asia today, leaving Brent crude unchanged at USD 104.50, and WTI unchanged at USD 99.35. With mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan all on holiday tomorrow, I expect the first part of the week in Asia to be quiet.
Overall, I still expect Brent to trade in a choppy USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, with WTI bouncing around in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 a barrel range. The US SPR and monthly OPEC+ production hikes balanced out by geopolitical tensions elsewhere.
Nearly five weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is no sign of the oil market's increased volatility abating anytime soon.
Dollar Unlikely to Lose Dominance Due to Sanctions -- Market Talk
1435 GMT - Claims that the dollar could lose its dominance in the global economy due to western sanctions against Russia appear exaggerated, Capital Economics says. The sanctions imposed on Russia will accelerate the development of bilateral trading blocs that use alternative currencies but this won't rival the scale and reach of the dollar, Capital Economics says. The dollar remains the world's leading reserve currency but its role as the dominant currency for settling cross-border transactions is more important from the perspective of geopolitical influence, it says. "Foreign demand for dollar assets creates the deep and liquid markets that underpin the dollar's global dominance
WEAK USDOLLAR IS POWER BOOSTER FOR THE OIL PRICE as many countries use the weak USD to buy more oil beacuase they are afraid of further sanctions and paying more for expencieve oil. If you knew that 12months from now one barrel oil willcost 300USD,wouldn´t itbe a nice situation to buy oil right cheaper as it cots now? Think Big.
Oil prices shot up to $100/barrel (bbl) on the day Russia invaded Ukraine (24 February 2022) and continued to rise in the first week of the conflict. On 7 March, international benchmark Brent oil futures hit nearly $140 per barrel (bbl), while US oil futures West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $130/bbl.
The prices spiked after the US and its European allies sought to ban the purchase of oil from the Russian Federation amid the conflict in Ukraine.
Since then, Brent and WTI have retreated due to several factors, including concerns about demand as a fresh Covid-19 flare-up forced China – the world’s largest oil importer – to impose a large-scale lockdown. However, prices have remained above $100/bbl.
Will oil prices hold at their current level of above $100 for the rest of this year? Dive into the impact of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and other factors on the oil price projections and read the latest on oil prices 2022 from analysts.
Oil steadies as IEA prepares details of reserve release
Oil prices have pulled back considerably since peaking last month in the early days of the invasion. Declines over the last couple of weeks have been aided by lockdowns in China and a massive SPR release by the IEA, the details of which should become known early this week.
The US has already made its contribution known which will go some way to easing the tightness in the market and supply shock from Russia, where sanctions are biting. This is only a temporary solution but offers a buffer over the next six months as producers ramp up production, including OPEC+ which has until now refused to accelerate its efforts in any significant way.
Oil prices remain high but they’re certainly at more sustainable and less economically threatening levels. WTI slipped below USD 100 and could remain there depending on the full details of the IEA release and the length of Chinese lockdowns but the war in Ukraine remains a significant upside risk.
Gold holding up as recession signals flash
Gold is holding up fairly well in the face of multiple super-sized rate hikes being priced into the markets and risk appetite remaining fairly strong. The inflation risk is seemingly providing plenty of support which is why we’re seeing so many rate hikes being priced into the markets, along with the downside economic risks that continue to mount.
One thing that has come with these super-sized hikes is recession risks, as evident by the inversions we’re now seeing on the US yield curve. The 2-10 inversion is now clear for all to see and has previously been a fairly reliable recession indicator. Of course, it doesn’t offer any kind of specific timeline and there are doubts about its reliability in an enormous Fed balance sheet world. The economic data may also provide some comfort.
But gold is holding firm and is actually up marginally on the day. It appears to have consolidated just above USD 1900 over the last few weeks with brief dips below being quickly bought into. Equally, it’s not making any real headway to the upside, making it quite a choppy market at the moment that offers little in the way of directional clues.
Oil rose for a third day as support grows for a European Union ban on Russian crude. Expectations of a further escalation of the war is also helping to drive prices higher.
Oil products price forecast update April 2022
Crude oil prices typically fluctuate based on seasonal demand and supply. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic caused crude price changes through a drop in demand. While economic recovery is underway, oil prices continue to be affected by global uncertainties.
Key Takeaways
The EIA forecast that Brent crude oil prices will average $82.87/b in 2022.
WTI is forecast to average $79.35/b in 2022, up from $68.21/b in 2021 .
Oil prices are rising due to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply.
OPEC is gradually increasing oil production after limiting it due to a decreased demand for oil during the pandemic.
Current Oil Prices
There are two grades of crude oil used as benchmarks for other oil prices: the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing and North Sea Brent. WTI at Cushing comes from the U.S. and is the benchmark for U.S. oil prices. North Sea Brent oil comes from Northwest Europe and is the benchmark for international oil prices.
Internationally, Brent crude oil prices averaged nearly $75 per barrel (/b) in December 2021, down $6/b from November's average. Prices increased in January, up to $87/b, but they are expected to average $82.87/b in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Feb. 8, 2022.
West Texas Intermediate averaged $71.71 per barrel in December 2021, and rose to $79.39/b on Jan. 4, 2022.1 The EIA forecasts that WTI prices will average $79.35/b in 2022, up from $68.21 in 2021.2
Oil prices are affected by several factors that include everything from weather to economic and political instabilities.
It also estimates that global oil and liquid fuels demand was 101.08 million b/d in December 2021. That's an increase of 5.52 million b/d from December 2020, but only 0.24 million b/d lower than December 2019. However, the EIA expects demand to average 100.52 million b/d in 2022.3
2021 Oil Prices
Brent crude oil prices started low in 2021, averaging $54.77/b in January.4 But they rose in the second quarter, closing at $67.73/b in April 2021. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing in the United States performed similarly, closing at $63.50/b in April. The third quarter saw massive hikes in prices, with Brent prices increasing to a height of $84.52/b in early November, and WTI reaching $85.64/b in late October. By the end of 2021 Brent sold at $77.24/b, and WTI at $75.33/b.56
Oil Price Forecast 2025 to 2050
The EIA predicts that by 2025 Brent crude oil's nominal price will rise to $66/b. By 2030, world demand is seen driving Brent prices to $89/b. By 2040, prices are projected to be $132/b. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. By 2050, oil prices could be $185/b.
WTI per barrel price is expected to rise to $64 per barrel by 2025, increasing to $86 by 2030, $128 by 2040, and $178 by 2050.7
The EIA assumes that demand for petroleum flattens out as utilities rely more on natural gas and renewable energy. It also assumes the economy grows around 1.9% annually, while energy consumption decreases by 0.4% a year.8
Future oil prices will depend greatly on innovations in energy, transportation, and other industries as societies work to become less fossil fuel dependent.
Always understand.the oil companies shareholders want only one thing: HIGHER OIL PRICES! HIGHER PROFIS!
Reasons for Today’s Volatile Oil Prices
Oil prices used to have a predictable seasonal swing. They spiked in the spring as oil traders anticipated high demand for summer vacation driving. Once demand peaked, prices dropped in the fall and winter.
Oil prices are more volatile today due to many factors, but four are the most influential.
1. US Oil Supply
The coronavirus pandemic and natural events are still affecting oil demand and supply. The U.S. experienced a drop in production following Hurricane Ida in September as the storm shut at least nine refineries.
The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.8 million b/d in 2022 and 12.41 million b/d in 2023.9
2. Diminished OPEC Output
Oil price increases also reflect supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC partner countries. In 2020, OPEC cut oil production due to decreased demand during the pandemic. It gradually increased oil output through 2021 and into 2022. Supply chain disruptions in late 2021 affected global trade as well.
At its most recent meeting in December 2021, OPEC stated it would continue to gradually adjust oil production upward by 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January 2022.10
3. Natural Gas
Countries in Asia have relied on coal to generate power, but recent shortages have turned them to natural gas. Higher temperatures in parts of Asia and Europe have led to high demand for natural gas to generate power.
COVID-19 has hampered Europe's natural gas production, and a colder-than-expected heating season in early 2021 reduced supplies further.
As a result, natural gas prices soared in 2021 and are expected to remain high in 2022, and affected countries have turned to gas-to-oil switching to reduce power generation costs.2
4. Global Inventory Draw
As a reduction in oil production continues globally, countries are forced to draw from their stored reserves (not including the strategic petroleum reserves). This steady draw of oil is contributing to the increase in prices, because inventories are decreasing.
How Biden’s Huge Strategic Oil Release Could Backfire
President Biden’s huge SPR release announcement has pushed WTI prices back below $100.
SPR release may calm crude prices only in the short term.
U.S. SPR may need to be replenished at higher oil prices.
This week, the Biden administration revealed that it will release as much as 180 million barrels of crude oil in a bid to calm oil prices, which have remained above $100 per barrel for an extended period of time. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, is coordinating a smaller but international reserve release of some 60 million barrels and has called an emergency meeting to discuss how exactly to go about it.
It remains unclear whether part of the 180 SPR release in the United States will be a completely separate endeavor or if some of these barrels will be part of the IEA release. Earlier this year, the U.S. had agreed to release 30 million barrels as part of the IEA push. What is clear is that the success of these releases in calming down oil prices is quite unlikely.
The United States last year announced the release of 50 million barrels in an effort to bring down prices t the pump, which were eroding Americans’ purchasing power and weighing on the President’s approval ratings.
This pressured prices for a few days before they rebounded, driven by continued discipline among U.S. producers, equal discipline in OPEC+, and a relentless increase in demand for the commodity.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and the U.S. banned imports of Russian crude and fuels. It also sanctioned the country’s financial system heavily, making paying for Russian crude and fuels too much of a headache for the dollar-based international industry. Prices soared again before retreating some, but remain firmly in three-digit territory.
Related: Why We Cannot Just “Unplug” Our Current Energy System
As of mid-March, the Department of Energy said, some 30 million barrels of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve had been sold or leased. That’s more than half of the 50 million barrels announced in November, and it appears to have had zero effect on price movements.
But the new reserve release is a lot bigger, so it should make a difference, shouldn’t it? It amounts to some 1 million bpd over several months, per reports about White House plans in this respect. Unfortunately, but importantly, oil’s fundamentals have not changed much since November.
U.S. shale oil producers, the companies that a few years ago prompted talk among analysts that OPEC was becoming increasingly irrelevant, have rearranged their priorities. They no longer strive for growth at all costs. Now they strive for happy shareholders.
This has given more opportunities to smaller independent drillers with no shareholders to keep happy. Yet these have also run into challenges, mainly in the form of insufficient funding because the energy transition has had banks worrying about their reputations and their own shareholders.
Pandemic-related supply disruptions have also affected the U.S. oil industry’s ability to expand output. Frac sand, cement, and equipment are among the things that have been reported to be in short supply in the shale patch. Now, there’s a shortage of steel tubing, too.
Meanwhile, OPEC is doing business as usual, sticking to its commitment to add some 400,000 bpd to oil markets every month until its combined output recovers to pre-pandemic levels. Just this week, the cartel approved another monthly addition of 432,000 bpd to its combined output despite increasingly desperate calls from the U.S. and the IEA for more barrels.
OPEC has been demonstrating increasingly bluntly that its interests and the interests of some of its biggest clients may not be in alignment right now. It has refused to openly condemn Russia for its actions in Ukraine and has not joined the Western sanction push.
Related: U.S. Oil Demand Has Been Vastly Overestimated
On the contrary, OPEC is gladly doing business with Russia. And Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two OPEC members that actually have the capacity to boost production beyond their quotas, have deemed it unwise to undermine their partnership with Russia by acquiescing to the West’s request for more oil.
In this environment, releasing whatever number of barrels from strategic reserves could only provide a very short relief at the pump. Then, it may make matters even worse. As one oil market commentator on Twitter said about the SPR release news, the White House will be selling these barrels at $100 and then may have to buy them at $150.
Indeed, one thing that tends to get overlooked during turbulent times is that the strategic petroleum reserve of any country needs to be replenished. It’s not called strategic for laughs. And a 180-million-barrel reserve release will be quite a draw on the U.S. SPR, which currently stands at over 580 million barrels. If oil’s fundamentals remain the same, prices will not be lower when the time to replenish the SPR comes.
This seems the most likely development. The EU, the UK, and the United States have stated sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if Moscow strikes a peace deal with the Ukraine government. This means Russian oil will continue to be hard to come by for those dealing in dollars or euros.
According to the IEA, the shortfall could be 3 million barrels daily, to be felt this quarter. OPEC+ is not straying from its course. In some good news, at least, U.S. oil production rose last week for the first time in more than two months, by a modest 100,000 bpd.
Trend on oil it seems that the is between 98.56 and 100.43 and consider 100.43 the important resistance on oil for bullish.
UsOil in your HandsPlease read the description below carefully
We have Scenarios about oil And for now two of them is important !
In this analysis, it is assumed that wave 5 is extended !
scenario 1 : we in wave 4 and the pattern is Triangle ! So after Wave e ( close 93 ) complete, we have an impulse to complete wave 5 ( 140 or above )
scenario 2 : in this scenario, Wave 4 has a zigzag structure ( abc ) And wave c is completed near 84 !
If price broke 84 dollar and stabilizes below that, then Wave 5 was not extended And the peak is before the end of wave 5 and we enter a heavy correction which is given an analysis update.
wish you all the bset !
USOIL URANUS PROJECTIONLooks like USOIL will reach its peak around the month of July... I don't think a ATH will be put tho as we are in the bearish part of the 21 years uranus cycle...
OIL(CL1!), BIG GUYS don't SELL! Does the oil crisis continue?
In our oil idea, we showed a big value zone $85-95 that was created on the chart! The price tested this zone as support and rebounded by 25%!
Also, a bullish signal is the low volumes at the local highs of $120-130. The big player has not made sales to retail traders. Perhaps the rise is not over yet.
We think that the price will consolidate under the trend line for some time and after that it will start to renew its highs. Of course we have to see volumes rise at the lows, as we saw last time. That will show the strength of the buyer.
There are too many changes in the global market at the moment: the war, the nuclear deal with Iran, which is not very good for the neighboring countries, the weakening of the dollar, the mass adoption of crypto, inflation.
How could this affect the price of oil? Write your thoughts in the comments!
Friends, press the "like" button and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
US Oil to $65 Looking at the monthly close here is gonna be super bearish. Next support lvl is about $65 rang. Good new is, gas prices will lower a bit
US OIL - into breakdown trend Hello trading friends,
The USOIL looks to enter a new breakdown trend depending on TA trends.
We will see coming time what this means for the price action.
Have a good time.
Daily Technical Analysis (Brent Oil)In the chart above, Brent Crude Oil has just broken downwards from the 0.38 Fibonacci level. The second red line from the top is another level of support that oil has broken out from. Also, the Stochastic RSI diverged (Top Blue Rectangle). Since these events have occurred, the price of oil has been decreasing.
If oil carries ongoing downwards to the 0.5 Fibonacci level then we could see some good level of support, Stochastic RSI has also just diverged (Bottom Blue Rectangle). So, following this, the yellow line shows my price prediction.
If oil carries on going down it could find some support at 0.5 and then rebound upwards. Then the price could find some resistance at the 0.38 level and if the buying power is strong enough the price could breakout upwards. If the buying power is not strong enough then oil could come back to the 0.5 level. Possibly even break through the 0.5 level, but that in opinion is not that likely.
Oil's last run ; before a slow demiseOil's last run ; before a slow demise
Just wanted to look at oil and record this obvious fractal down somewhere. Lets see if it plays out.
The age of oil is coming to an end. Putin has now sped that up.
Him and his goons no doubt had some very sick oil longs on knowing they would create a crises. Its all pretty disgusting really.
CL1 CRUDE BRENT OIL- IS OIL STILL A GOOD TRADE ?Oil may be in a reversal now or going through corrections as the markets get use to the the Russian Invasion in Ukraine. I don't believe that US and NATO will be successful at imposing oil embargo sanctions on Russia. Therefore I am bearish and will be shorting oil etfs..
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I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, or post.
USOIL WTI Crude Oil TrendlineIf you haven`t bought the $94 pullback:
Then you should know that USOIL in on a bullish trendline for this summer.
UBS laid out three reasons for its $125 USOIL this summer:
1. Russian oil exports hurt by sanctions, which will further tighten global supplies.
2. Spare capacity brought in by OPEC is less than 2% of global demand.
3. Global oil demand still heading for record highs with Europeans and Americans returning to normal travel patterns once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
