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Oilforecast

Oil is near its selling zone. Oil is on fire because of sanctions against Russia. Russia is one of the largest oil-producing countries globally, and the European countries mainly depend on Russian oil and gas. The sanction against Russia put the fire on the oil sector. So, it is tough to say where the oil price will stop. But there is something about to say technical analysis and profit-taking factors. As long as the European don't find alternatives, the oil price will rise. But profit-taking is a must for every trade. The present rates are $110/115/Barrels seem a profit-taking zone. That means oil may go in deep correction nearly from the present rate. So, I expect oil to drop from $110/115 to $90/92 for profit-taking purposes. But remember, profit-taking doesn't mean the trend is changing. The oil trend still is in an uptrend as long the European countries don't find the alternatives of Russian oil or the OPEC agreed to produce more oil. So, we can sell in the short term from the present rates to the $90/92 price zone after deep correction, and we will go for buy again from the $90/92 price zone. On the other hand, if oil breaks above the $115.00, we will continue our trade till the 2008'sswing high price zone of $145/150 price zone. However, I am not expecting it yet. I expect a correction first in deep, and then we will buy again. But I am still bullish on oil. If you like my chart and analysis, please like, comment, share, and follow me.
TVC:USOILShort
by Gold_Trading_Expert
Oil Analysis: Oil may test above $107/Barrel The crude oil price broke the history in April 2020 and moved back to $00.barrel less than two years ago though the crude oil price is now $92 / barrel. Due to the Corona effect, crude oil prices have been low for a long time, but crude oil prices have been rising steadily since April 2020 due to rising demand. However, there is no doubt that crude oil has risen sharply in recent weeks due to the Russia-Ukraine issue because Russia is the largest energy supplier to Europe. Although Russia is not a member of OPEC, it is one of the world's largest exporters of crude oil. The Middle East crisis also has been responsible for the volatile oil market for years. Crude oil prices have plummeted due to the smuggling of special ISIS oil stealing. The US also has given economic sanctions on Iran. That's why it has forced Iran to sell crude oil at much lower prices to several countries, including China. The international community has deliberately destabilized the oil market. The oil price is much higher now, so it was natural for oil-exporting countries to increase supply, but crude oil prices are not falling due to several geopolitical issues. However, if this geopolitical problem is not resolved in the foreground, the price of crude oil may soon exceed $100 per barrel. Oil price is directly involved in inflation. If the price of crude oil goes up worldwide, the price of every goods and service will go up in the developed world. Commodity prices can create hyperinflation when the purchasing power of the ordinary person goes out. In that case, it is not uncommon for the world to move towards another economic recession. Technical Analysis: The current crude oil price is $92 / barrel. The market has dropped a bit from last week's trendline resistance. And from the current rate, the trendline support price is $85.63 / barrel. If next week the Russia-Ukraine issue declines or does not rise further, there is a possibility of a slight drop in crude oil price correction. But until then, crude oil prices won't drop much. However, if the price of crude oil falls below $85/barrel for some reason, the market will first test $77.50/ barrel. And the next target is 65/62 dollars/barrel. However, Crude prices can only drop if the geopolitical problem resolves or an announcement from OPEC increases oil extraction. Although so far, no such symptoms have been seen. On the other hand, if the Russia-Ukraine problem escalates further, the market will test $97 / barrel again. The next target is $100 / barrel, and the last $107 / barrel is more likely to be tested this year. However, for some reason, it is better to stay in buy mode on crude oil, especially if it is available at $75/73 / barrel. It may be better to stay in buy mode with a few pips stop loss. . Because as the days go by, the global crisis continues to grow, and oil prices have been low for a long time because of Covid-19. Many countries have not been able to import oil. That is why there is so much demand for crude oil right now, and the demand for crude oil will probably continue to increase throughout 2022. You have to remember resistance level should never be a good choice for buying crude oil. When the crude price comes to a support level after correction, it would be better to stay in buy mode from the support level.
TVC:USOIL
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
The effect on oil prices of Russia's invasion of UkraineRussia's invasion of Ukraine will most likely disrupt crude supplies locally and globally. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer. Russia is the main EU supplier of crude oil. To keep it simple, since Russia is invading Ukraine, this will cause major oil supply issues for the EU. If the US and other countries in the Middle East can keep the supply tap open for the EU, then this issue will not be that much of an issue. However, Russia is a major member of OPEC. Russia holds a lot of influence in this organisation. So they could, if they wanted to, pressure other oil suppliers to not supply the EU with oil. This would only be a short-term play. Russia is heavily dependent on oil sales revenue. War is expensive. I do believe the invasion in Russia will most likely be a month max. After that, the war will be finished, but further civil wars and political instability will most likely arise in Ukraine for years to come. This effect will not be big enough, in my opinion, to drive oil prices higher. Henceforth, this oil spike will be a short-term rise. Furthermore, there is a growing concern about the imbalance between supply and demand following the opening and normalisation of the global economy after the Omicron variant subsided. In February, JP Morgan analysts projected that disruptions to oil flow from Russia could push oil prices to $120 per barrel. Oil prices last week, for the first time since 2014, reached $100 per barrel. If Russia is backed into a corner, I highly doubt it, they could curb oil exports to their advantage. Previously, Germany delayed the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Europe. As a result, Russia delayed shipments of natural gas. What stops them from doing it now? If they repeat this action, but for their oil exports, this could further lead to a short-term to medium-term rise in oil prices. The impact of oil prices on the macroeconomy in Russia is also an interesting thing to look at. If the price of oil continues to rise, according to this study (Ito, 2010). Using an unrestricted VAR (vector autoregressive) model, a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to the growth in real GDP by 0.44% in the long run. However, war is expensive, so I doubt the benefits of the increase in oil prices will outweigh the costs of this war. Furthermore, this study reports that there is clear evidence for consistent claims in other literature pieces. Oil price increases are much more important than oil price decreases (Hamilton, 2003). In summary, now that the war has begun, I only see oil prices spiking in the first couple of weeks of the invasion and not really after that. The US and other countries will likely supply the oil needed to sustain the EU. Winter is over, and the weather is getting warmer. Oil demand will most likely decrease. The major play with crude oil futures is right now. If the war is prolonged, as Sun Tzu states, no country has ever profited from a prolonged war - the oil prices may reach 110–120 in the next six months. Especially if the supply issues are not fixed and the outcome of the war is political instability. Technical analysis The Commodity Channel Index is a technical indicator that, as the name suggests, was designed to be used with commodities. If you want to, you can use it for a variety of assets. But I prefer to use it with commodities. It measures the current price level relative to the average price level over a given period. When it passes +/-100, it signals overbought/oversold levels. However, the CCI is an unbound oscillator, which means there are no upside or downside limits. So, interpreting overbought and oversold levels is subjective. Furthermore, there are two problems with this indicator. First, the indicator does not take into account fundamental events. So, a political event or supply shock will be seen as an overbought level. However, because the CCI is an unbound oscillator, it can continue to rise. Second, unlike chart patterns, indicators lag in time. So, the CCI will take time to show a decrease in price on its CCI values. This means you may be seeing an overbought signal, even after the price has decreased and the price increase is over. Regardless, right now I believe the CCI shows a great piece of analysis - that is the CCI cycle represented by the yellow line. Henceforth, I will still be using it for my analysis. The CCI indicator data input is Length 20, Timeframe 1 Month. The pink boxes represent overbought and oversold levels with their corresponding price rectangles on the chart. As you can see from the yellow line, the price approximately follows a cycle. Over the last 16 years, the cycles have been reaching lower lows and lower highs. Currently, the rise from the last pink box is not creating a big enough spike in the overbought level in the CCI indicator, suggesting that the price can continue to rise. The CCI is represented by the yellow line, showing that the oil price is following a cycle. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine is over, you can expect the oil price to fall along with the CCI. However, I expect this to be 6 months after the invasion has concluded. This is an important cycle that the price of oil has followed for the last 16 years. The two orange lines represent all-time highs and lows. The two red lines represent a "box" of resistance and support. As you can see from Oct 2010 to Aug 2014, for almost 4 years, the crude oil price stayed in this region. This region will provide very important support and resistance to the oil price level if it reaches this point. Using Fibonacci levels, we can see the oil price has been following a support and resistance pattern equal to the support and resistance of the Fibonacci levels. Right now, it has broken out of the nearest Fibonacci level that rests around $98. This will provide a level of support to the oil price. Along with that, there is another support level represented by the top blue line. Right now, in the event of stalling behaviour, I see the oil price staying between $97 – $105. The price may poke above or below during this time. However, my confidence level in this support is not too high. The resistance and support levels given by the Fibonacci sequence, the red and blue lines, are strong. But the price range in this region seems too small. So, if the price stays here, it could only be for a couple of weeks to months. Following other price behaviour in the past. Also, as you can see, the price touched $100 and then fell and has stayed there for the last week. The reason for this is that the $100 price level is a great level of resistance. I wouldn't be surprised if many traders used this price level as their take-profits. In summary, the invasion of Ukraine has been going on for nearly a week now. The oil price has shot up, but not to a large degree. I'm guessing the supply chain is holding through and the markets have probably priced in this invasion, hence why the price hasn’t shot up that far as you would expect. If the price stalls, it should stay between $98 to $105. The key support and resistance levels. The price, in my opinion, may poke through the lower level if the war seems to be ending or through the top if the war creates problems for the oil market. I don’t see the price going above the bottom red line. Only if there are major supply issues with oil or geopolitical events related to oil. If the price does break the bottom line of resistance, then the price should only be there for a short time and eventually return down. Unless, of course, the geopolitical/supply issue persists, in which case the price is likely to remain above the bottom red line. After that, I expect to see the price of oil decrease and continue in its CCI (yellow line) cycle.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
$VTNR Target PTs 15-28 and higherVertex Energy, Inc., an environmental services company, provides a range of services designed to aggregate, process, and recycle industrial and commercial waste systems in the Gulf Coast and Central Midwest regions of the United States. The company operates in three segments: Black Oil, Refining and Marketing, and Recovery. The Black Oil segment collects and purchases used motor oil directly from third-party generators; aggregates used motor oil from a network of local and regional collectors; and sells used motor oil to customers for use as a feedstock or replacement fuel for industrial burners. It also produces and sells a vacuum gas oil product to refineries and marine fuels market; and base oil product to lubricant packagers and distributors. The Refining and Marketing segment gathers hydrocarbon streams in the form of petroleum distillates, transmix, and other chemical products that are purchased from pipeline operators, refineries, chemical processing facilities, and third-party providers; and sells end products, such as gasoline blendstock, pygas, and fuel oil cutter stock to oil companies or to petroleum trading and blending companies. The Recovery segment sells ferrous and non-ferrous recyclable metal products, and markets Group III base oils and other petroleum-based products, as well as provides transportation and marine salvage services. Vertex Energy, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
VLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
$FTKFlotek Industries, Inc. operates as a technology-driven chemistry and data company that serves customers across industrial, commercial, and consumer markets in the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Chemistry Technologies and Data Analytics. The Chemistry Technologies segment designs, develops, manufactures, packages, distributes, delivers, and markets reservoir-centric fluid systems, including specialty and conventional chemistries, for use in oil and gas well drilling, cementing, completion, remediation, and stimulation activities designed to maximize recovery in new and mature fields, as well as to reduce health and environmental risk by using greener chemicals. This segment serves integrated oil and gas, oilfield services, independent oil and gas, international supply chain management, and national and state-owned oil companies. The Data Analytics segment designs, develops, produces, sells, and supports equipment and services that create and provide valuable real time information about the composition and properties for customers' oil, natural gas, and refined products. This segment sells Verax analyzers, deployed in the field across the oil and gas sector, to support contracts and software services via its cloud-based Viper software platform, as well as sells hardware-related solutions. It sells its products directly through its sales force and contractual agency arrangements. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
NYSE:FTKLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
OIH Monthly Candle Breakout11 month accumulation with a large range expansion away from the mode. My strategy to trade this was jan 2023 $285 calls for the lower premium. ATM calls are also a good strategy at a significantly higher premium so it depends on your portfolio size and the position size you're aiming for. For options I choose to never exceed 5% portfolio size per trade and I set my stop at a 50% loss (for actual stocks I don't use this rule, just options). You can trade a smaller position size but I wouldn't recommend going above 5% of your total portfolio. Even with far OTM calls, I'm already at about 13% profit since there's been some nice movement since I originally charted this 3 weeks ago. At around 20% profit I will likely adjust my stop to around 10% profit and then trail.
AMEX:OIHLong
by Trade_Integrity
WTI Oil Coming Lower to 1980s After Russian De-escalation? Currently Oil is sitting at a resistant trendline on the higher timeframes with a strong bearish candle being printed so far, about 2% down today. We've formed a double top on the timeframes below and after a brief pullback we're ready to move lower. This change in sentiment comes from the news that Russia has begun to withdraw troops off of Ukraine's borders but still looking to show off it's military power in drills that will take place in the future. Western media were salivating for war with Russia, an enemy it has built up in recent years, but in leaked wikileaks cables from 2008, Russia predicted the destabilization of certain Ukraine regions once the West tried to push into Ukraine because pro-Russian communities would begin to fight back. This has since come into fruition since 2014 and so Russia are clearly not acting on a whim, but rather a strategic posturing I would call recent events. Putin has not been afraid to downplay the strength of the Russian military in comparison to that of certain Western countries so it doesn't come as an ego damage that he would remove some troops. We'll see how this plays out but the situation has been overly exaggerated and now we will see outflows from safe havens if the above still holds through in the days and weeks to come.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
2
Shorting USOILWe are looking at taking advantage of the current market sentiment and position ourselves to take advantage of potential downward movement of WTI in the next weeks to follow. We have some ambitious targets that we are looking to capetalize on with 3 TP in place and a stop loss in the 98.90 range. The TPs that we have set for ourselves are : - TP1 - 80.90 - TP2 - 77.00 - TP3 - 67.80 Despite the current tensions between Rusia, Ukraine and NATO, based on the findings from our research team and the current output levels from OPEC+, and the current plan of increases in oil output by 400,000 barrels extra, we are looking at a dip in the prices of the black gold.
TVC:USOILShort
by Atlas-Horizon
USOIL, The path to 100Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Oil prices recovered losses after falling more than 3% the previous session, as investors assessed the impact of reducing Russia-Ukraine tensions against a tight global supply-demand balance. The market seems to be moving in a positive way after seeing the Oil prices rise mainly because of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and today it's trading at 92.90 per barrel with a Bullish candle showing on the charts. We might see a drop back to the main support area located near the 84$ zone where a big battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control with the outcome being most likely to the Bulls. Technical indicators show : 1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish Sign) 2) The MACD is above the zero line indicating a Bullish market with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line. 3) the RSI is at 66.48 showing Great strength in the market with no Divergences found between the market and the indicator. Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1) 90.27 1) 96.47 2) 86.38 2) 98.78 3) 84.07 3) 102.67 Fundamental point of view : Moscow's statement on Tuesday of a partial army withdrawal from Ukraine's borders was treated with skepticism, with US President Joe Biden warning that more than 150,000 Russian troops were stationed near the frontiers. Aside from the Ukraine crisis, the oil market remains tight, and prices are still on track to reach $100 per barrel. While the Ukraine situation raged on, the US Labor Department revealed that producer prices rose by the highest in eight months in January, a reminder that high inflation may remain for the rest of the year. Investors are looking forward to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report on US oil inventories, which is due on Wednesday. Last week, crude and distillate inventories in the United States may have fallen by 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels. According to market sources on Tuesday, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed a decline in crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks last week. This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
TVC:USOILLong
by GabiDahduh
USDOIL Crude Oil top | Retracement level targetCan i call the $92 level the 2022 top for Crude oil??? We might see a retracement in USOIL after Russia reported pullback of military troops. Some military units will start returning to their permanent bases after completing drills near the Ukrainian border, said the Russian Defense Ministry. Extending the Fibonacci retracement tool, my price target for crude oil this year is the $79 support. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopgOptions
An attractive ideaThis analysis is purely a personal analysis Hints 1. This analysis is checked in the weekly time frame, so each of the waves has the necessary time to form between a few weeks to several months, and a total of one to two years. 2. For convenience, it refuses to go into details so that the trader can easily understand it. 3. The study was performed in the form of Elliott and canalization using Macd indicator Analysis Description: Oil is on a long-term upward trajectory annually, so after the proper growth of oil prices and the failure of the downtrend, higher goals are pursued, but what is clear is that each impulse step needs a active step to rest. So it can be said that in the next few weeks to a few months, the oil route is expected to be relatively upward to reach its $ 114 target to complete a complete cycle. And then it enters a correction cycle that can take up to two years, so expecting to see $ 35- $ 45 as a midline target is not unexpected. Note: Proper insight into considering all possible scenarios then 1. Short-term visions Long-term to medium-term are well defined We have a temporary uptrend and targets of $ 114 and $ 105 for it Then for several months the rest of the movement shifted and, the price suffered And then move to the channel midline for several months At the end of this analysis is only a personal analysis and there is no certainty in doing or not doing it ......
TVC:UKOILShort
by cafe_chart_
Oil Corrective Price Action ContinuesThe large descending (often bullish) channel in blue continues to suggest that Oil will continue to challenge the above prices. The weekly chart (not shown here) suggests that the trend is getting weaker with the print of TWO LARGE DOJI candles. This does not inspire confidence to buy this and better to just wait for confirmation. The plan continues to be that 93.23 area is where this will turn back down. Nothing to me indicates that this will head higher than that target and if we take in to account the weekly candle patterns that it might not even make it there. For now we just wait on oil to do it's thing.
TVC:USOIL
by Sinex
1